Good evening, winter weenies. The late afternoon run of the GFS came in with a much colder solution for Friday into Friday night and that would mean more snow than ice.
Here’s the snowfall numbers through Friday night…
That’s just one run of one model.
I said it over the weekend and it bears repeating… the models tend to be underdone with the extent and speed of arctic air. Let’s see if the models catch up to this over the next day or so. The European Model seems to be slightly ahead of the game in that regard. We shall see.
Take care.
Wow Louisville would be between four and six inches and that’s only the first pulse. I’m still highly skeptical about the colder solution.
so does that mean less plain rain for SE KY and more Ice?
I saw on another blog that another model had warmer solution that kept Louisville all rain. I will say I think the GFS handled last storm best so we shall see. History is definitely against GFS
TWC is hyping Kentucky severe winter weather potential much more than most local mets at this time, that is different since they usually focus on the north east big cities, someone is going to get hammered out of this in KY, we are way over due for a smack from Ice or Snow!
Chris is not one of these folks taking this lightly locally by the way!
Thanks Chris!
Todd I agree I believe TWC uses gfs. I have to say over last two years they have been spot on for several forecasts. This may be a sign
I just love this guy post he really keeps us up on the weather.I look forward to seeing it everyday. That’s the first thing I look at even before Facebook. ..lol u rock Chris!!!
We went from snow,sleet,freezing rain and possible floods to now a few inches of snow…Wa,Wa,Wa, what happened…So much for the wave train…Gonna be a long winter..
That map is for the first expected wave. I think it will be a tad warmer than cooler, but I ain’t no met. One thing to consider is if the first round is mainly snow, snow begets snow.
So, will this be another warm air party spoiler and gives mainly rain and ice, or will the trend finally be bucked? Theory being cold air and snow are like oil and water in this region.
Until the trend is busted, we must respect it. It truly is a force to be reckoned with.
As usual the GFS is showing snowstorm and the NAM is showing nothing but rain.
Brace yourselves…..the armchair meteorology is forthcoming! 😉
Nah, go by the trend and no need to:
If ice is forecast = watch out!
If more than a dapper of snow is forecast = Stay away from Lucy and her football.
Where in the World is Rolo?
Is tomorrow the day it all shifts north?
Yep..The south is gonna shift north and the north is gonna shift south..Ky is in the middle so we stay put..See when the whole globe turns upside down Ky still gets shafted..It’s a no win situation..
For perspective, it is appreciated this blog is more CBs thoughts rather than a forecast and only when he posts an alert it becomes one. With that, it seems nobody is mentioning a significant event in an actual forecast. Forecasts are talking mix and a little snow. No ice event either.
Point of all this it is easy to get wrapped up in thoughts here rather than an actual forecast. Here is hoping thoughts of an ice event stays as thoughts. Bastardi mentions ice, but he seems to have the winter forecast accuracy of a lotto ticket.
To me it looks like more of a flooding event if anything…Especially in eastern Ky…Just what we don’t need….Would rather have ice than flooding…
Pay no attention to TWC……they have motive to hype events and do so at will. As long as we don’t get ice I am not too worried about it. It’s early and it seems we have ready gotten as much snow as last year. Maybe we will get a good one this year. Somerset is in the dead center of the dome.
Anybody that does tv has reason to hype no exception just some more thay othersl
The 00 GFS is freakin hilarious. It sways the temps up when the moisture is here and drops it when the moisture exits. Does the same thing for the second wave. I’d say it has it nailed then.