Good Monday afternoon, everyone. We continue to eye a major weather event that will impact the entire state from Thursday through the upcoming weekend. This will bring the potential for snow and ice and flooding rains our way.
My winter impact map stays the same…
The threat will be for everything from snow to freezing rain and sleet or any combination of the above. It’s way to early to pick out who gets what kind of precipitation. The precipitation type may vary with each wave of low pressure that works through here. Everyone wants to focus on snow… don’t. This is way more than that.
The first wave comes through here Thursday into Thursday night with rain to a icy mix in the north and west. The next wave comes through Friday into Friday night with a colder scenario and more snow and ice than the first wave. The final wave may have the most moisture from Saturday night through Sunday night.
The GFS shows a significant sleet and freezing rain threat through Saturday night…
That does NOT include the bulk of what falls from the third wave on Sunday.
The threat for flooding is a real one and it could be significant… especially along rivers. Many of the models are showing 4″-6″ of rain falling across southeastern Kentucky during this time. Here’s the area of greatest concern…
Even folks dealing with mainly a flood threat early will see winter surge in at some point.
From snow and ice to the possible flooding… this is a very ugly setup for the state this weekend. I will have updates as needed. I’m off work today as I wrap up my 4 day weekend.
Take care.
Boo on that last graphic
Thanks Chris.As someone who can look out and see the river I hate hearing that.Thanks for watching over us in Se Ky and I will be following closely.
Thanks for the update! I know you’ll be keeping us informed. I have a feeling gonna be a lot of flip flops and waffles out of the models this week.
Thanks, Chris. I am really not liking the way this thing is looking. But I sure do appreciate you and all you do to keep us updated. thanks so much for putting the word out, even this early. Helps people prepare for what is coming. Have a good rest of the day off.
I think it was 2009-10 winter that got started with a flood in SE Kentucky. Could this be a repeat scenario of what was a pretty rough winter?
Rain just wish it would get cold and stay dry sick of rain if we can’t have just let it stay dry
Snow
Yep, our surge of winter weather here in se KY will be a backlash of a half inch of snow on top of muddy fields, swollen creeks and general nastiness. No thanks CB
Yea that’s what I say keep the rain see it all year who needs rain
Got to have lunch outside today 🙂 . It was mild enough, even if the overcast was not exactly a picture perfect setting. Looks like such opportunities will soon be few and far between.
Indeed, I hope that as few people as possible lose their power with this upcoming potential ice storm – me included, as some model runs had suggested significant icing occuring in the Nashville area 🙁 .
As of right now, I’d say it looks like a lot of what we get most of the time, rain.
I’m here in greenup ky…northeast ky! Looks like we might get some winter weather! Hopefully!!
This setup is more a freezing rain/sleet setup maybe some snow. These ripple waves of low pressure have disrespectful written all over them. Freezing Rain is very disrespectful. Well so much for 80 degrees and a warm gentle sw breeze this weekend for the Ohio Valley yes im living in dream world. CB you sure you don’t want to throw in severe thunderstorms maybe a isolated tornado or two might as well those are the only two pieces of weather your leaving out. lol
I think Sunday may be fun. It’s way to early to tell what type of precip will fall but it’s fun talking about it. Hope the EURO pans out as is.
Yeah I guess you call it fun to talk about it…BUT again over past many, many years, we can say its ALL BEEN TALK!
Most of us on here are the same, WE WANT MORE THAN TALK….PLEASE PLEASE LET IT SNOW. I’m with everyone else on we don’t want freezing rain and ice! No rain either, but it looks like it will probably do everything else except snow……I think the theme of this area should be called “backend 1/2 inch snow”!!!!
This storm has the look of one that hit in December of 2005, lots of Ice and heavy snow on the northwest side of it, will be interesting to see which precip type wins out??
You mean 2004?
I stand corrected, it was 2004, western ky got over a foot of snow, probably won’t happen with this storm, but the Ice will!
I remember that storm well. Areas in northwest Kentucky had over 3 feet of snow locally. Many locations had 18+”!
Thanks Chris. I appreciate what you do.
I live in an older neighborhood in South Lexington and all it takes to knock out power in my subdivision is for a bird to fart. We’ve had more than our share of freezing rain. I would rather have 10 inches of snow than a half inch of ice!
Same here in north Madison.
Let me guess. Lansdowne/Lansdowne Merrick. A bird fart is a huge disaster here, but a single plant cell undergoing mitosis will cause the power to go out.
Southview area.
Jim Cantore of the weather channel is saying somewhere in KY could be in line for a devastating Ice storm later this week, Ouch! Lets hope this is not the case??
all of Kentucky should prepare for an ice storm. we already know its not going to snow.
Word. Ice Ice Baby. If like the last one, we did get a few inches on top of the ice. Boo!
Chris’s latest tweet says 18z GFS for Friday is much colder, increasing the chances for snow/ice.
The warmer it gets on Thursday the better, since longer for the ground and surface area to freeze and accumulate ice. Maybe we will luck out and if colder, the precipitation will switch to snow by the time the surface area is below freezing! 🙂 Two days of warm air has to help out some. Hoping for 70’s on Wednesday.
Still, some places could get smacked with ice regardless of this.
Meant the warmer it gets on Wednesday and hoping Thursday retains some of it too.
its snow or bust for me. if I have to choose another moisture I will take the sleet reluctantly.
Just looking at some analogs for the upcoming system…one was from January 8-9, 1999. A decent slug of snow and ice affected the region, snow of 4″ in northern KY and southern IN while freezing rain affected areas south of the Ohio river. This was followed by a severe ice storm not quite a week later that impacted Washington DC.
I found a map of that system from January 8-9 1999…thanks for the map
http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1999/08-Jan-99-SurfaceMaps.html