Good Monday to one and all. We have a wild week of weather kicking off across the bluegrass state. The headliner will be a high impact event that will impact our region late this week into the coming weekend. Everything from significant snow/ice to flooding rains will be possible across Kentucky.
The wild weather begins on a rather tame note with temps around 50ish today and Tuesday with widely scattered showers possible.
Temps on Wednesday will really take off and low 60s will be possible. Winds and showers will increase as our arctic front nears from the west. This will roll eastward into Thursday as our temps crash behind it. The front then stalls out just to our south and east and that’s when the wave train begins.
It looks like 3 waves of low pressure will work along this boundary through the weekend. The first two will impact the region from Thursday through early Saturday. Here’s the GFS…
After a big of a break on Saturday… the next wave arrives Saturday night through Sunday…
For fun… here’s the snowfall forecast from that same run of the GFS…
Why do I say for fun with any snowfall map, right now? Because they are to be used as guidance to begin with,and that’s a stretch with a setup like this one. With the potential for a nasty mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain… any snow forecast at this point would be futile at best.
That said, I have decided to showcase the areas I currently believe have the highest potential of seeing significant winter weather…
That could mean anything from sleet to snow to freezing rain or a combo of the three. We still have a lot of time to see how the low-level arctic air settles in.
The other potential that’s getting my attention… the potential for heavy rain and flooding. Much of this will also depend on exactly where the rain vs snow/ice line sets up, but the numbers from the models are impressive. The GFS has a spot of 5″ rains in the southeast…
As you can see, we have multiple threats we need to keep a close eye on during this time frame. As I write this… the new European Model comes in with a much colder solution and is mainly a snow and ice maker for many. It’s all on the table with this setup.
Updates coming later. Take care.
Keep the rain
Tired of the kiddos missing more for rain than winter weather
Still four days before this thing even comes in. Isn’t the GFS model the one that is usually thrown out the door this far out? Still not getting my hopes up even thought the Ohio River is in the sweet spot. Not sure if I like that or not. Past trends say you don’t want to be in the sweet spot until day two when they have really nailed it down. There will be some changes to the maps above and I hope they are for the colder solution for all. Image if SE KY would get the cold in before all this starts 60 inches of snow instead of 5 inches of rain. WOW…This is a good way to start a Monday. Thanks Chris for the update. Have a great day.
Take a look at the Canadian model…lol…Of course that model has a cold bias…Still fun to look at..
Then again what if the cold air seeps just enough to the southeast leaving Eastern ky in the ice zone…Talk about boys praying to there momma’s…
Talking about a months worth of rain in just 2 days isnt my idea of fun.
Well, we have lived in a rain forest all spring and summer…..why not winter too…..still better than ice/freezing rain no matter how you look at it. Move over Seattle and Pacific Northwest, there’s a new kid in towm…….. Kentucky….the new leader in rainfall.
Well, looks like southern KY including Somerset and London area will miss out on snow, yet again…..what a shocker :/
Well I understand that weather dudes are all about getting excited about bad weather, but why not take a day or two to appreciate the warmer temperatures we are blessed to see today?
Let’s acknowledge how lucky we are to have this break before falling down the rabbit hole of next weekend.
Tis the season for lots of cold soaking rain.
I’ll go on the record now with my new policy:
If it’s supposed to start as rain, it won’t make much snow.
Interesting…….
I wonder if that will take off like the rule?
When we get snow in our area (Somerset) is starts as snow or sleet, but 99.9 percent of the time, it starts as snow. IF we get rain first, a good snow for us is 99.9% chance of a bust. Don’t know why it is that way but it is. But I will still take rain over Ice/freezing rain ANY day.
the way things are going I would not be surprised if the cold front stalled on the Ohio River. which would mean all of Kentucky receives rain.
Seems warm air could crash the party (if a fan) for snow. The warmer it is this week, the more the chance . Watch out for temps that spike warmer than forecasted.
Wild how mets are outlooking different temps for late week. Not seen CB’s yet, but the temps do not indicate Arctic air as currently noted. A colder result of course would be huge.
All this warm air and the cold could mean a main part of the mix would be ice. Give me heavy rain over that stuff. Bleh.
As far as Arctic air, I am referring to colder than 30’s in the day and 20’s at night. Then again, if it were too cold that would push the precipitation out.
What temps are CB thinking for late week when the wet stuff arrives.
Just look on WKYT 7 day…RAIN….no snow mention until sunday a mix? Rain! If CKY is in the GREATEST RISK of “Winter Weather” then why does wkyt have RAIN?
The term winter weather is funny to me. Sorry , but it is. I would be awesome if it snows, but the experience from the last 10 years says, maybe sleet, probably rain. back end snow of about 1/2 inch! Tell me I’m wrong! It is what it is!
But on side note: WHO DEY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh but there will be a 1st alert severe weather day Thursday-Monday
Nothing wrong with that Andy. A lot of folks do not pay attention to the weather like we do. And any ice/freezing rain or even flooding concerns should be treated as severe as they can/could become life threatening situations. I like the fact that WKYT has severe weather days when our weather demands it. And this kind of a situation demands it.
You are getting close, Andy.
New personal policy. NOT getting the least bit excited about snow possibilities. Ignoring the hype and expecting vastly underachieving snow storms at all times.
Maybe this will work because my old school attitude sure didn’t! lol
Amen! NO HYPE!!!
Wishing the references to the 1970’s winters would end. We’ve not had a winter remotely close to the late 1970’s since 1995-96. And, heavy rain in our neck of the woods, with flooding potential? Thanks, but no thanks.
December 1978 record flooding in KY! I live in Frankfort so I remember this well, the KY River has never been higher than that year!
That happened when all the snow melted almost at once. It rained and the snow melted. I was a little kid watching the Big Sandy rise over the banks and having to evacuate with family and fellow residents. I mainly remember a lot is mud to clean, no running water for over a week and snakes.
This year it will be because of rain not rain+snow
The blackbirds are already seeking higher ground LoL
Looks like western Ky could get the hammer dropped first…Special Weather Statements already going out in western tenn. and parts of Mississippi..
Even Lex18 is forecasting snow for Saturday on their TV weather site. Bill Meck almost always tends to go towards the warmer side of the spectrum, so maybe that’s a good sign for you snow lovers(myself included). Looks like that Louisville has a better shot at this point for snow than we do in Lexington. Somebody is going to get nailed for sure. Thanks Chris for all you do.
Could someone please tell me what IBIWISI or whatever that is that some people post means?
Ben, it means I’ll Believe It When I See It
I wouldn’t hold our collective breaths. Rain will be the main precip type for most of KY, and, no question, southeast KY. more model induced hype.
Chris how far southeastern ky will get the flood threat is Morgan co in that??????
What to name this weekends systems……How about CHERRY slush for everyone!
Chris, I really hope that the maps are wrong on this thing, with all the heavy rain. That is one thing we really do not need in southern/southeastern KY.
We got our share last week when almost everyone else got at least a little snow. Yes, we got a dusting, but if all the rain we got would have been snow, we would have had a really good one.
I , for one, will be keeping a close eye on your updates on here and on KYT as well. I do not like the way this thing is shaping up at this point. (I might feel differently if there was any hope of our part of the state getting something other than cold rain/freezing rain or ice.)
Thank you for keeping us up to date, Chris. Appreciate you for all you do. Have a great Monday, fellow weather weenies!
It looks like my respectful, time-proven skepticism is catching on. I would love to hear some comments about the models and if, how or how often the algorithms that build them, self-correct or take reality in to consideration. (If they “miss it” several times, consistently, do the models “re-calibrate”? Do they take this into consideration? If so, how often do they do this? Constantly, kind of a continuous improvement model? Perhaps they re-calibrate once a year or every several years, kind of like re-norming standardized tests… Lost’s of questions. Any help out there?)