Good afternoon, everyone. The pattern for the end of the week into next weekend continues to show itself as one that could bring a lot of winter to our region. A significant overrunning event featuring a stalled out arctic front and waves of low pressure looks increasingly likely.
Freezing rain, sleet and snow will all be possible from Thursday night through Sunday in this type a setup. What type of precipitation we see and when will be determined as we inch closer to the event.
The GFS shows a nasty mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain for a lot of people across our region. The European Model is shaking off its bias of holding energy in the southwest for too long and is coming in colder than the rest. The model delivers mainly snow to our region. FOR FUN, the European Model is laying the smack down…
Snowfall through Saturday…
Expand that out into early the following week and those numbers grow…
As always, take those with a whole block of salt. I’m showing them to illustrate the potential we have for an extended period of significant wintry weather across this part of the world.
We still have plenty of time to see where the boundary stalls out and just how many waves of low pressure it throws our way.
Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.
I will bet the rainiest model. I wish the Euro was true. maybe the Southwest energy will hold back although I doubt it. I think we will have a repeat of the same old story the typical snow Dodge.
Chris- you be the man! thanks for all your work. we snow geeks are loving this early stuff. hope it stays snow if it comes to fruition.
I hope it’s 80 and sunny next weekend with a gentle SW breeze.
I’m also a warm wx fan 🙂 .
Problem is, when such wintertime warmth does happen in our area, this may lead to spring-like severe wx. Just like in January 2012……..as well as during the absurdly warm month of January 1890 which had a major tornado outbreak in western Kentucky.
This is one time I woud rather see a cold Rain than Ice,but will take snow. I guess as Chris says stay tuned and take it with a block of salt.
To early to get my hopes up. But we are so over do for cold and snow for KY. With Bailey and Bastardi putting out snowfall maps that put us in the sweet spot seven days out gives us little hope. Hope the cold air can settle in down to the southern Tenn. boarder with a southeast ridge in place would be game on. IBIWISI to those maps, but it is nice eye candy.
NWS in both Louisville and Jackson are forecasting rain throughout the whole period! Either they are right or we will see freezing rain and snow and they’ll be looking like the fools again…..we’ll see 😛
I goin with their forecast right now. Also Chris is not forecasting anything as of now he is summarizing about the possibilities. When in doubt bet the liquid precipitation.
No there not you gotta read the Louisville NWS forecast discussion. Low confidence in forecast after Wednesday NWS in Louisville fully realizes the potential is there for wintery precipitation.
Again? Seems they did purty good on the last system. Pick your met forecast, none got it all, but all got some correct. Sadly though, the small events are where most accidents happen- as was the case for last week.
The GFS sure has been consistent showing something for next weekend…Maybe rain, maybe snow, maybe ice, maybe sleet…Pick your poison…Or maybe all of the above..Also maybe cold dry air..lol..Guess we will know come Wednesday or Thursday….
Cool
Even the Weather Channel has a video segment out talking about our area of the Ohio River Valley in the bullseye for “several inches” of snow.
What does it mean with the numbers that go up beside the weather maps and what does the colors mean on the weather maps the blue and purple and bright pink? I am not weather savy. It looks very interesting what ever it means.
The numbers have a color code that goes with the map. The numbers mean inches of snow so northern KY is in the 12-inch range on that last map.
The models predicted the 2003 ice storm a week out. I remember that very clearly. Not liking the thought of freezing rain.
I will put absolutely no faith into any model 1 week out….after the last “storm”, I will also put no faith into any model i day out.. As this progresses and the maps above still look the same within a day or 2 out, I will not get caught up in the hype and I suggest no one else does either. Haven said that I am still intrigued and still looking for that one illusive incredible snowfall like the ones we had when I was a kid…..but I will believe it only if I see it.
Same as me.
I am banking on the surface area being above freezing when the main moisture moves through. This should cut down on accumulation if it were to be ice. Then again, if the cold air settles in over a solid day and THEN we get warm air aloft… Boo!
Again, the models for this region (on average) are about 90% accurate for ice and mix, but only about 10% accurate with snow.
Neat to see the “old school” track of the models like the GFS are showing this evening. Difference being that used to sometimes be reality in the 90’s and earlier, rather than only fiction now.
Excuse me sir, but the proper spelling is “OLD SKOOL”. 😉
This has the set up for the winters of 76 and 77. Very early cold temps and very early snow and cold. During these two winters, the snow started in November and it snowed almost daily throughout the rest of winter. We had sub zero temps off and on throughout both winters. I hate winter and the cold, but this is a setup that looks exactly like both those two years. Stonewall hill, here we come again!
I have not experience winters like 1976-77 and 1977-78, as I was not born until the 80s. I’ve only had relatives describe them to me. So when such a winter does happen, it may be a big learning curve for me, especially considering that I’m more of a warm wx person.
I was too young to remember the cold of January 1985. I did experience the cold of Dec of 1989 and January 1994 while in Tennessee, but I recall those winters had both extreme cold and warmth.
Regarding snow, the March 1993 blizzard is by far the biggest extreme I’ve experienced.
confirmation from NWS. search winter storm Cleon at weather.com posted at 8:47p.m tonight. Chris You had it first my friend. Great job!
Well if the GFS turns out to to be right and stays the course this looks like a dangerous situation..
Already mentioning flooding for SE Ky somethings never change rain for us while the rest get winter precip
yeah, winter sucks down here. i wish we could end the hype about stupid models that never verify.
Thats how tv stations get ratings
Perhaps a different weather blog would better serve your needs?