Good evening, gang. Things remain on course for a major storm system to throw rounds of nasty winter weather and heavy rain our way. We have to take this one at a time and the first one will begin to impact western Kentucky tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are out for western and central Kentucky, and a Flood Watch is out for the east…
Those are for the first wave of precipitation and run from late Thursday through Saturday morning. The next round will take aim at the region Saturday night into Sunday and that one has ice written all over it.
A new round of winter storm warnings and watches will likely come for Saturday night into Sunday/Monday. Those may encompass a lot more areas.
Have a great evening and take care.
What is up the dome over Scioto, Pike, Adams, etc Counties in Ohio??
While I still have power: First! 🙂
Fail lol
That must have been a delayed post since I was first for a few minutes. I was Somebody!
Yes you were BubbaG…I saw you!!
🙂
Thanks for the updates Chris, I feel good knowing your on top of this winter storm, looks like someone is going to get a thumping of some kind that’s Foresure!
Well, it looks like I’m going to get nothing! 🙂 I’ll just keep todays weather and be happy I guess.
For real. Looks like we’re left out of everything. Hoping for an inch or 2 of snow by Tuesday, anyways.
Looks like I will be alone this weekend and my house is always the first to lose power since I’m the very end of the line. (surrounded by trees!)
Hubby will be stuck out of town. This is not going to be fun. Hang tight, everybody!
Well Kevin Harned just forecast 3-5″ for louisville friday/friday night. I hope he’s right! Though I still think it will be mostly rain.
In se ky I’d gladly give up 2″ of rain to
Have 20″ of snow………
Sigh
Smh…..
here is another first call for snow:
http://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/1476446_1823566847781626_702106231_n.png
basically, Louisville area 4-6″. But, a steep drop-off east and south. With 6-8″ north of the Ohio River.
is that one particular model forecast or a Mets prediction
It is a prediction from a guy in Ohio
Bring it on!!
Stay safe everybody!
I’m just not buying that this is a big deal. It looks like S.Indiana will get 4-8″ of snow. Louisville maybe 1-3 if we are lucky. West Kentucky have ice impacts. Rest of us enjoy your inch of slush or cold rain. Sunday is the day that is getting not enough attention. Potential ice storm could cause lots of problems.
I am a little confused as well. Appears Kentucky is on the fringe of the event. Case in point, Madison county is the cut off between frozen stuff and rain. There has to be a gradient since we seem to be the fringe. Well, especially Madison County. Most mets show the system is more due north, north east and why we be the fringe for frozen stuff. CB’s map supports this as well. That is unless it will dip more south, but the current maps do not suggest this.
Fencetucky!
And I thought it was 4″ or more of snow had to be forecasted for a Winter Storm Warning to be issued? Not anyone is predicting that much snow. I am not sure what the criteria is as far as freezing rain or sleet?
I believe someone posted Kevin Harned of Wave3 is predicting 3-5″ for Louisville area.
Yeah but he isn’t the NWS. They issue warnings based on their forecasts. Maybe it will change but Kevin Harned is the only met in Louisville who has went that high on totals of snow.
For what it’s worth, NWS in the forecast discussion says their snow total estimates may be conservative.
When you combine the freezing rain and snow potential, it increases the impact. So even though there may not be 4 inches of snow, whatever snow combined with the freezing rain warrants winter storm criteria.
0.25″ of ICE is also winter storm warning criteria
Just another in a long line of disappointments. Winters in Kentucky are crap. Believing the hype is along the lines in believing in the tooth fairy, Santa and a pot o gold at the end of the rainbow. Heck the Cubbies will win a World Series before we get a good state wide storm. Enjoy the rain folks
Hype? The mets & models are pretty good at forecasting ice. This event is mainly ice and rain for most of us- with special emphasis south of I64. Only a few L-ville mets are touting mainly snow north of I64. Most mets are going all Vanilla Ice on us.
If it were hype, I am more than happy to be let down with this one 🙂 Ice ain’t nice, and for the lower ground level folks: torrential rain is a pain.
I will agree though that big snow is a pipe dream for a lot of Kentucky. Far too long a trend of model missed to deny.
I’m hearing 2009 ice storm repeat for Sunday….some mets say yes others no. Anyone have a link on how much frz rain fell in 09? I was thinking places without power for a week in central ky was 0.5-0.75″ frz rain. LMK NWS says that much or more is expected!!! Sunday appears to be a much more dangerous day than Friday!
I believe in Louisville it was between .75 and 1 inch of ice. Western Kentucky had more than that.
http://www.google.com/search?q=2009+kentucky+ice+storm&rlz=1C1GGLS_enUS365US366&espv=210&es_sm=122&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=gPifUpalHPLIsASZ-YGoBQ&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1440&bih=774#es_sm=122&espv=210&q=2009+kentucky+ice+storm+reports+map&tbm=isch&facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=H6zETX5WzDVogM%3A%3BgDkYWd2W84y3eM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252F4.bp.blogspot.com%252F_G9oXfdtZTA8%252FTUIcujWVQ9I%252FAAAAAAAAA88%252FAxhFLfxpfME%252Fs1600%252FNWS%25252BLouisville%25252BIce%25252BMap.png%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwestkyweather.blogspot.com%252F2011%252F01%252F2-years-ago-ice-storm-of-2009.html%3B964%3B472
that s the link to a ice report for the 2009 ice storm
“Will this be like 2009? As of right now…we are NOT looking at a repeat of that event. Monitoring.”
The NWS of Louisville was asked that today and that was their answer.
I’ve not seen a forecast that has those numbers!!
On December 4th I find it amazing how many folks are going nuts about the lack of snow this year, last year no snow at all fell in Frankfort until after Christmas, give me a break, we are in uncharted waters for a winter storm this early in December to even be close to us, chill folks this winter is going to be different from the past few, it already is !
I think folks are looking at the yearly concurrent accumulation of steady misses- hence the near immediate sensitivity already.
I’m sensitive to all the near misses also, but this year has a different feel to it, come Feburary if no significant storms has landed I will be very surprised and cussing the snow gods again!
I agree on this event, the models are becoming colder and colder not warmer and warmer like they usually do. with that said watch out for the dreaded dry slot. Lol
I am not going nuts. I am just wondering when the NWS is calling for 1-3 inches of snow and a little sleet,Why do some continue to hype?
Winter storm watch to me means they are watching they don’t know yet??
Yeppers.
I still remember the Brian Collins (god rest his soul) and the infamous dusting of 97. Of course that was 16 years ago and nothing close to a repeat since but you never know.
16 years of this crap and I’m still optimistic. I need help.
January 1994 blizzard they basically called it off only to see a lot of KY get buried in snow!
Good Times.
sometimes a blind squirrel finds a tree nut. we are way over due.
Feb 4-6 of ’98, good ole’ Tom Willis predicted a dusting to 1/2″ of snow and Louisville ended up with a record 22.3″ of total snowfall. I remember this very well, as I had just moved to Kentucky in January (3 weeks earlier), and Jay Cardosi kept coming on every couple hours and saying there is now an advisory for 2-4″, then it became, 3-6″, then it became 6-9″ with immediate upgrade to Winter Storm Warning, and then he comes up by that first night and says, “guys, I really don’t know what to say. We were way off on this one, and it just continues to snow, with no end in sight.”
Two days later, an all time record for a snowfall in Louisville.
🙂
That was actually 1998 🙂 My second son was born that year and we found out on “Dusting Day” 🙂
That was our last big snow (for North Madison anyway).
That is an awesome way to remember that moment!
My birthday was Feb. 7th. So, I was loving it.
Oh goodie! Nothing to put one into the Christmas spirit like 2 systems in 2 weeks with torrential poring rain with that wonderful soggy flooded yard in which my golden retriever loves to play and then track in the house, followed by a few days of bone chilling temperatures. I am truly thankful that my area is not in the mix for ice or freezing rain but God, I am so sick of rain that I could literally pull my hair out (if I didn’t have a buzz cut)! Seriously, I’m honestly considering moving to a desert state….I like it hot and I won’t complain of those conditions…. end rant!
Mike M. I need help too. This is a load of cow manure. We always get the shaft in Kentucky. I need a new hobby.
Hydrology? 😉 🙂
Alright, somebody please post a map of the NAM that Chris is calling “incredible”!! I can’t go to sleep until I see the darn thing!
CB Tweet:
An incredible run of the NAM for Thursday night and Friday. Major ice and snow showing up for northern, western & parts of central ky.
Hmm, I wonder where the ice will mainly be? Would the area around the border of the blue and green section be about right? Yep.
Here is from a local met I will leave nameless, but is about the same forecast as other local mets:
We’ve got a bumpy ride weather-wise over the next few days. An approaching arctic cold front will bring some periods of rain throughout the day Thursday and it could come down heavy at times. Temps will fall from around 60 early into the 40s by the evening. More rain is expected Thursday night and during the first part of Friday. As arctic air filters in from the NW, a change over from rain to freezing rain/sleet/snow is expected Friday afternoon/evening. Light snow/ice accumulation is possible.
This seems to differ even with the NWS. Are local mets about to look like a bunch of goobers? Will CB stand amongst them and laugh?
Yaaawwwwnnnn…Did someone mention snow/ice/flooding rains….Oh my,i may need to go to the store…NOT
Incredible run of the NAM, LOL. Translated: more snow for southern a Indiana, dangerous ice in the border counties and a nasty mix of rain and sleet for central Ky. It’s the 2004 December storm part 2. No reason to hype this for Kentucky. The central and eastern snow dome reigns supreme
I am not sure what you mean by eastern snow dome, we get plenty of snow here in Pike County. I just had 4 inches of snow the other day, so we must be outside your dome, sorry.
I am in Pike County well Pikeville to be exact and got an inch maybe.What part of the county are you Dale?
Dorton, next to Jenkins, higher elevation.
Oh yes.It amazes me that 25 minutes up the road can make that difference but it does,I guess it is the elevation.Dale I will be up if the water gets up lol.I can look out behind my house and see the Big Sandy so I am worried.
I was about to point that out too, but resisted- Jeff Hamlin is watching 😉 That said, wherever the ice were to fall, followed by the cold air will be pretty rough. Seems though it will gradient as you go south: snow, snow/sleet, snow/ice, ice/rain, rain. I would think the blue counties next to the green ones would be the ice areas. Hope I am wrong, since I live in one of those areas. Boo!
Well I wasn’t watching until now. But seriously, Bryant and others like him need new material. At least you try, Bubba.
Kind of like music. Every combination has been done already. That is why I appreciate the four chord honesty of AC/DC 🙂
So still no answer about Scioto/Adams/Pike Counties HOLE in the adv/warnings??? Any insight appreciated…. Sorry Bubba for your premature “First” 😉
You guys are in the rain zone for all outlooks and forecast so far. That is about the only consistent thing: The rain areas. The actual track of this is supposed to be north, north east. That would mean KY is the fringe area for frozen stuff and why the sharp cut for east KY.
It would take a HUGE drop shift of the cold air Friday to result in frozen stuff in east KY. That would then mean the system overall would shift as well. Seems not too likely for the first waves. BIG news for KY though if were to happen.
Second! 🙂
Referring to Friday wave.
I feel like less updates tonight on diff blogs then last night and were only day away
Most def on board with others..must see new nam map of both systems cb just tweeted about before I go to bed. In 09 CB nailed the ice storm when others was left hangin. I was a deputy at the time and had to work 4 strait days during and after the storm out of my pickup 4×4. chainsaw was my best friend. Since that experience when Chris says ICE..he has my undivided attention!!
Bubba, it is so good to see you again! I hate to put you on the spot, but you are running 100% in my book, so I am going to flat out ask – what are your thoughts about this “mess” for Fayette? I have three souls that I love dearly having to drive each day in this regardless of what comes – rain, snow, ice – they must go and I swear, I get more gray hair with each model run! 🙂
Hope whatever comes our way that everyone stays safe! It’s great seeing so many “old” names here, plus the new! Chris, thank you so much for all you do for all of us and especially, for making this the best weather community around!
Take care, everyone!
CB has a good grasp of it! Fayette would be ice/snow and Madison ice/rain/snow. Depends if the trends hold up with cold air.
Is is not CB’s fault the models are bipolar, so no telling what the actual system will do until it is falling. I have lost any confidence in snow totals. Last year broke me bad.
Just watched local mets and they are still saying mainly rain with the “potential” of “some” frozen precipitation. All agree though for some serious cold for early next week.
Still, night and day different outlooks for the impending systems: CB verses the other mets!
Correct me if I am wrong but I only saw 2-4 inches of snow for the Louisville area on this run of the NAM. 6-8 towards Evansville and Owensboro. Not much anywhere else. That 2-4 will be mixed with sleet so probably 1-2 realistically.
Anybody calling snow totals now IMO are grasping at guessing straws. The safe answer is MIX. The cold air position will define the mix ranging from snow, sleet, ice and rain. The colder, the more snow, but then depends on the infamous warm air aloft.
Good luck to mets forecasting this!
Comes a point where you just have to now cast. Paducah might be getting freezing rain Louisville might be getting snow Lexington might be in sleet London might be having rain all at the same time by this time tomorrow. Four different kinds of precipitation will be falling statewide. Louisville NWS really has there hands full just because southern Indiana is in Louisville’s viewing area. 20-30 mile range I know in Louisville could be 2 inches to 8 inches.
I would much rather have all rain than have the power go out and have no lights or heat. BTW I am in the highest risk area for river flooding according to Jackson weather service.
Per Brian Goode
GFS rolling in. Very similar to the NAM. Rain. Then ice. Then a band of 4-6″ of snow. Main target for heaviest snow along and north of the River. I will look at Sunday’s ice threat next.
New models come in at midnight correct?
IF you believe the short range models(SREF,etc) the heaviest snow bands are back lining up just north of the Ohio River.
I think there is no wrong forecast unless you are giving sunny ans 70s the next week
Hmmm……..
Current temp in Louisville KY – 70 (and it’s after midnight in December)
Current temp in Nashville TN – 69
Meanwhile, it’s now already down to 35 in Las Vegas NV, with a chance of rare snow on Saturday to boot.
BTW, it’s 8 above in Goodland KS, minus 14 in Casper WY.
So from my understanding, Louisville could get a snow pack on an ice pack on a snow pack on a sleet pack on an ice pack on a rain pack? Because Louisville starts off as rain, then a transition to freezing rain, to sleet to snow. Followed by Saturday night’s system bringing freezing rain, and topping it all off with snow?
Yeah. Sounds about right. I think from what I’ve seen Louisville will have a brief period of freezing rain. More sleet than snow probably. We are always on that line.
Looks like Somerset and London are out of the winter mess this go round……….again!!!
Sunday is the day I am more worried about. This potential ice storm.
Wow the pic TWC showed at a mayfield ky grocery store