Good Thursday, everyone. I continue to track two major winter weather events for the bluegrass state over the next few days. This means we have a double barrel Winter Storm ALERT. The first runs tonight through Friday Night and the second from Saturday night into Sunday.
To say this is a complex and extreme setup would be an understatement. We have every precipitation type to deal with and it could be a lot of each one. Let’s get after it…
Our arctic cold front swings across the state today and will set up a massive temperature gradient and fall. At some point today, we could see a 40 degree difference from west to east. The good folks at Kentucky Mesonet give us the temp tracking goods…
Current temperatures
Most areas will be well into the 60s early today. By evening, many readings will be in the 30s. Western Kentucky may go below freezing by the middle of the evening and that will get the mix of sleet, snow and freezing rain started there. The rest of us will deal with heavy rain and a clap of thunder is possible early.
That line will then work eastward overnight into Friday and that is going to make for some tough, tough forecasting of precipitation types. Here’s how I see it…
The area I have highlighted for the heaviest precipitation will likely get hammered and serious issues may result. Heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain will be common in these areas. Accumulations will vary because of the precipitation types, but the potential for some areas to reach 4″ of whatever falls is more than possible.
Areas just to the east of that into central and northeastern sections will see rain to start with a changeover to sleet, freezing rain and some snow as the day wears on. The timing of the change in any one location will dictate accumulations, but I do expect some to occur. Heavy rain in the southeast will change to a light mix before ending Friday night.
Travel will deteriorate from west to east as the change takes place and as temps go below freezing. We may see teens settling in Friday night and Saturday morning. Single digits will be possible for areas in the west and north.
Arctic cold temps will be noted on Saturday with highs in the 20s. That sets the stage for the next big push of moisture to return Saturday night and Sunday. This has the look of a significant event of ice and some snow. Sunday morning looks nasty for just about the entire state…
The models continue to point toward a temperature rise above freezing from south to north. Arctic air over a snow or ice pack does not get pushed around easily and may hang around longer than the models think. That would be bad news wherever that happens!
The flood threat continues into southern and eastern parts of the state through the weekend into early next week. Rivers may be the biggest concern before all is said and done.
Monday will see another weak wave working through the region with light snow breaking out later in the day as temps take a dive. Single digits will be possible by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Highs those days may not get out of the teens for some areas.
Always one to look ahead… I see one or two more big ticket winter items before Christmas. This is a pattern locked and loaded.
Updates will come later in the day and I will be firing off quick updates via twitter. Have a great day and take care.
Thomas from Murray, KY here. We usually are the last part of western KY to see the change over, but will keep you guys updated this weekend as I can about what is happening on the west side. Thanks Chris for all you do. My wife and I use your site every winter for more accurate info.
Just had a thunderstorm roll through louisville. Tomorrow it will be sleet,freezing rain,snow,frogs,cats,and dogs falling from the sky.
As a mom I can’t help but have a feeling of dred with these storms…kids are grown and on their own, they have jobs and have to drive in this mess, I have to go to work in this mess. I have elderly parents that I worry about. I just pray that everyone will be ok.
Not looking good for the home team, folks. The old school heavy snow will be in southern Indiana. And locked and loaded means more cold rain. Don’t buy the hype, guys
By your comments you seem to keep indicating that we are all buying it for some reason. Not sure what makes you think we’re all “buying it” or “falling for the hype”
Good for you if you’re not. CB is the best when it comes to severe weather and relaying information. But I’m not sure why he continues to defy the trend. Warmth will always be the King when it comes to winter systems in Kentucky. You guys want winter, move north. I’m prepared to wager that Lexington and points east will not experience a storm greater than 5+. And total snow totals for the winter <10". Anyone know a good online betting site? I'm going to make some money
I will take you up on that, as I told you yesterday, my area of Pike County has already received 4 inches of snow and if my geography serves me right, we are east of Lexington and in Kentucky. Put me down for whatever you got.
A bigger map would help, but we are not the center of this event for frozen stuff, but the bottom fringe. As usual though, the lower accumulations with colder air tend to be the most dangerous for accidents.
CB seems to differ from Micah who is also a 27 met. They are using the same maps, but Micah is saying the significant totals are mainly the Indiana and adjacent areas in the actual warning zone. That said, you do not want much from this, since it is a nasty mix and not fluffy fun snow. Power issues are not fun.
Seems the key issue to all of this is the road dangers due to the ice factor and following cold air. The Sat/Sun wave would be nice if light accumulation- but still would be dangerous on roads and walking areas!
Nobody has hyped old school heavy snow for anybody around here.
Wow the pic TWC showed of a grocery store in mayfield ky
Thanks Chris for you had work and dedication to keeping us all informed.
Better get your milk and bread, wine and cheese, bourbon and coke…Whatever your fix is for the weekend. May not be able to get it later this weekend without a boat and waders. Not to be a downer, but trends are trends. Cold rain with a few ice pellets for most of KY. I am in Lou. and I still think we are on the very lighter end of things.
Was 66 here around Murray, KY about two and a half hours ago. Now we are low 50’s already.
Song of the day yesterday was….ICE ICE BABY……
Kentucky Rain was the better choice for most though.
I object!!!! The song of the day was Kentucky Rain 😛
Agree but disagree….Was singing to the forecast for the Lou. area and not SE KY. Today the Song of the day will be Kentucky Rain. Tomorrow much of the same with a little bit of ICE ICE BABY and LET IT SNOW! or we could go with Rain Drops Keep Falling on My Head to Slip Sliding Away.
To those saying ‘don’t believe the hype’- to you I say, you must not know how many people look at this site. They are all across kentucky, and some will really be impacted. Just because you live in an area that clearly says it’s going to rain; doesn’t mean that WKY will see only rain. This happens every winter, and it’s always annoying how half of the people who comment act like this website is only for one or two parts of kentucky. Heck some readers don’t even live in kentucky.
Its also annoying when most people on this board says Eastern Ky gets all the snow…Clearly with this system you can see this is not the case..Anyways congrats to those that receive any wintry precip…
Congrats……? I think not…. If it were to be a snow only event maybe. But I dont think congrats are in order on a storm that will most certainly put many folfs in the dark with no heat and put significant potential out there for several deaths on the roadways….
Really don’t understand your point but believe it or not some people actually like wintry precip..So, to the ones that want wintry precip congrats..Now to the one’s that don’t hope you enjoy the rain…Now was that better???
Touchy Touchy this morning.
Of course there are snow lovers, but even these most diehard winter fans often hate freezing rain, and for good reason. One inch of ice is far more dangerous and destructive than a foot plus of snow.
Snow lovers in Indiana are probably rejoicing and that’s fine as they will mostly get only snow.
But much of western Tennessee is now under an Ice Storm Warning. Do you really think the snow lovers there are celebrating??
Temps in WKY already in mid 40’s according to mesonet.
Looks like Lou. Winter Weather Watch may turn into a Winter Weather Advisory. Most snow stays North of the fence (Ohio River). TRENDS my friends TRENDS….
I disagree the NWS wanted to see another model run before issuing a Winter Storm Warning the latest model runs are meeting warning criteria and the artic is ahead of schedule. I be more suprised to see a Advisory and not a warning.
Artic air, my bad.
Understood completely, but everyone here knows that the Arctic Air will get just far enough down to tease us with the over running warm air winning out. WWA is what I am going with. Hope I am wrong, but as I stated before TRENDS around here have not been busted for over 15 years.
North of the river will see the worst weather. NWS doesn’t have enough confidence to issue a warning south of the river except Carrollton. Warnings were issued early western Ky so that tells the story. Fun to watch though.
Not downplaying the threat of icy weather for anyone…but i’m already looking for the next shot or two coming before Christmas. Here in Wayne County mostly rain & compared to ice….i’m all for the rain.
One thing I’ve noticed that cannot be disputed. Over the past few winters Oklahoma has received more snow than Kentucky. If you look at a century or so of climate data that was never the case. So, perhaps the main storm track has changed over this part of the country?
I know, right?? I mean, it’s like Oklahoma is colder than Pittsburg even. You’d think the cold air would come from the north, not the west.
Which is why I never get excited about long range models and analogs. Things have changed now, and probably forever.
Here’s our regional temps as of 9am:
http://i.imgur.com/Pfjaqve.jpg
Were we expecting mid-to-low 30s in southern Illinois this early on?
I live in Eastern Ky and we got snow last time so it don’t bother me at all to share. I do dread all the rain with the ground being so saturated all ready. We have a lot of creeks and low line areas it’s going to effect a lot of people. So for where ever you live and what ever you receive I pray that you stay safe.
I do not wish freezing rain on ANYONE. This time, it looks as if we may be dealing with mostly rain. While I want a big snow event, I will say again that I do NOT want or wish freezing rain on anyone. Those of you who are in the winter storm warning area, and the winter storm watch area, please be careful, and stay alert to the changing conditions. Those of us who may see a rain/freezing rain mix need to stay on our toes as well, as freezing rain can look like plain old rain. Thank you , Chris, for all you do. Everyone have a safe and great Thursday.
Out to hr 36 on the Nam and looks like the freezing line is having a hard time making it to Ky except the western part..Trends
Exactly, model worshiping is bad, bad, bad.
I’m cheering for the NAM if the freezing rain line is staying away!
Its already in the upper 30’s in parts of western KY the models already have completely underestimated the quickness of the artic front.
Ugh, stay rain please.
No tweets!!! No model runs!!!! Don’t like the quietness lurking about on CB’s end of things.
He’s probably disgusted just like the rest of us, LOL. Winters in Kentucky are comparable to Kentucky football in the SEC-last place.
LOL…
He needs to sleep also wizards!
That usually is CBs posting behavior. The main frozen path is North, North East and we are a Watch area. Notice no warning for us yet? Still do not take lightly though, since whatever falls when freezing will be dangerous to drive or walk in.
That is my concern. Some people always equating smaller events as safe and then drive like loons.
Looking nasty for this first round of winter wx. There is an Ice Storm Warning for much of western Tennessee including Memphis. Far western Kentucky could be next although hopefully from that point on it will be more of a mix (snow/rain/sleet, but hopefully less freezing rain).
Then round two arrives this weekend with the potential for even more freezing rain.
Here in Murray, KY they are saying half inch to three quarters inch nice and around 2 to 4 inches of snow through Friday night. No one is daring say how much Saturday night into Sunday here cause after noon Sunday radars want to show rain.
Wish you all the best with this upcoming icy mess. BTW, my wife is a Murray State grad.
Yeah thanks, not too keen for ice, but 2009 we had over two inches of ice so no 2009 barring what round three does here. I root for Murray State basketball, always cheer for the underdogs in sports. Went to school there some myself.
looks like rain here in athens
Meh,..Don’t know about the Nam…Look like moisture was not as good..Maybe the front arriving faster is moving precip out faster??..Western part,Louisville and far north still should do good..
Please stop with the asinine “everyone who likes ‘X’ type weather wants death and destruction” talk. It’s tired and lame.
Looks like another model fizz…..Western Ky. may get some action though. O well.
What’s new. Same ole song and dance
Why would anyone want this type of action in the first place? A miss for this would be great.
Amen to that BubbaG
Overall still looks like a decent event according to the Nam..Tis the Nam so you never know,,Can’t complain though with wintry weather this early..
Not much blogging by either CB or the guys at WAVE3 in Louisville. Speaks volumes about yet another dud lol
If it is a dud for the current watch areas, what better dud to have than an ice one? 🙂
I’m pretty sure if it was forecasted to be sunny, you would call that forecast a “dud.”
Remember, even IF a Winter Weather Advisory is issued for parts of the Watch area, an upgrade to Warning status can still happen if the NWS believes it is warranted.
I’ve seen it happen many times in the midst of an actual snow storm, the NWS upgraded from WWA to Warning.
2-4″ snow and minor ice accumulations for Louisville may not get us into
Warning criteria numerically, but NWS can still issue a Warning based on impact.
This is from NWSI 10-513
6.2.2.3 Impact Criteria. The following is an example of impact vs strict criteria: Winter Storm is forecasted but accumulations will not meet traditional criteria. However, if it is early in
the season or during a critical time of day such as rush hour when the impact will likely be high, then a Winter Storm Warning might be warranted. The forecaster has the discretion and should
not be held back from issuing what best describes the impending winter hazard even if traditional criteria may not be met in the strictest sense. WFOs will coordinate with adjacent WFOs
regarding the warning type.
It’s 10 A.m. and you people are already whining! The advisories/warnings don’t go into affect until this afternoon/evening. It is getting cold quick! So all of you causing a disturbance about this already being a dud really need to stop commenting because this isn’t going to really get going until tonight. K? Thanks 😉
IDK, if this were going into an actual warning for us, CB would tweet about it in his sleep, while juggling, battling hungry bears, etc. 😉
All joking aside, that is a long gap between tweets…….. More dramatic effect dots ……….
It looks like MOST of Kentucky will either get a significant icing or rain event. I’m glad here in Lawrenceburg we are mainly in the rain sector of this. Temp was 64 at 9:00 now 58. Already picked up close to an inch of rain. If you are in a flood prone area, watch out!
When does the nest runs come out?
Next
Chalk one up for Chris. He talked about a 70/30’s temp gradient in the state today. At 10:15 this morning it was 72 in Lawrence County and 38 in Union County out west. Good call CB
Paintsville 72, Morganfield 38. And no, that’s not a sports score. Chris’ prediction of a 40-degree gradient is juuuust about there.
Can’t deny the # as much as they want to
The rain in Lexington this morning has been unbelievable.
Get your rafts ready, team, and quit dreaming of 1970s winters.
The GFS is rolling..Probably hear from Chris soon..
Much colder now in Louisville than when I left for work this morning at 4:30AM EST. I didn’t even wear a jacket this morning because of how warm it was. Now, I’m almost wishing I had it. Was it predicted that the cold air would move in this fast? It seems like everything I read before this said the cold air wouldn’t move into Louisville until later tonight. We’re not at the freezing mark yet, of course, but it’s significantly colder none the less.
Everything is working as according to CB’s ideas he had at 11
now NEXT week it’s going to be an all out winter storm, will bury us …. then the NEXT week it will be ……………. then the NEXT week will be Christmas and it will be ……………………….
fill in whatever you want, you have about as good as a chance to get it right then that of the mets !!!
GFS is much better..Pretty big hit from western ky to lex. going northeast
Does that include mercer county?
Yes..Looks like snow and possible ice also..Sure Chris will update us soon..
can you share the link you are looking at Ready4Snow?
Thanks
I hope he does. I want to get some things together if we might loose power.
Mercer look like it may be in the sweet spot for some heavy bands..Hopefully it will all be snow..
R4S – What’s showing for southern Madison?
Pretty much the same…GFS shows a lot more moisture with the freezing line running from western going northeast..Need to look at soundings to see what type of precip there giving..
Thx very much
Thank you!
May start out out rain then switch,
What about greenup county??
Maybe we’re getting “radio silence” because the cold air is coming faster than models predicted and mets are scrambling to feed this new info into their models. Don’t know if it even makes a difference. We went from 63 at 8 am to 46 at 11 am in my part of Hardin county. Started with heavy rain and t-storm to now just cloudy skies and windy.
Here too. Locals said this evening for temps to fall. 63 when I left at 7am….45 now. Local weatherlady had all but said nothing much will happen tonight. And now the locals are quiet and the gfs looks a biiiiit different now lol. Hmmmmm….
Well. New future cast from 3 stations show rain ice line nit going south of Ohio river until after 9am. If anything this has slowed down