Good Thursday afternoon, gang. This is an update to let you know I have no changes to the thoughts put out in my last post. A one-two punch of winter is on the way to the bluegrass state with freezing rain, sleet, snow and heavy rain. Location, location, location is what it’s all about. When is it not? 🙂
I won’t rehash the thoughts already out there. I think the GFS has a pretty good handle on the setup at this point and is the way to go. The Saturday night and Sunday time period continues to be my biggest concern for widespread significant freezing rain, sleet and snow. That’s not saying tomorrow’s stuff won’t be widespread, just that the following system may have a more serious impact.
I’ll get you an update when Winter Storm Warnings are issued later this afternoon. I leave you with some tracking toys…
Current Temperatures
Winds
I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort
Frankfort
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-24 MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
Take care.
Chris, does it look like any school closings tomorrow morning in central ky?
47 in Frankfort, was in the 60s this morning, the front has past this area!
Joyce – It appears that it will be too warm tonight for frozen precip. Most mets are calling for 33-36 degrees as a low tonight.
I am not being a smart ..s…but if it is not going to go below freezing why is the weather watches starting tonight? I really dont get it.
Winter Storm Warning for Louisville
No new warnings East of there, so the cold air not progressing South as quickly, or will the moisture be mostly gone by the time it gets here? This is a time when our Kentucky “winter law” would be very welcome 🙂
To quote a fellow blogger Cantore says system is moving faster than expected.
The moisture or the cold air? If the moisture, the Kentucky winter law prevails again, but for a good cause 🙂
Is “Than expected” the new, “Was wrong”?
Bubba I am not sure I will see much here in Louisville. I really didn’t think we would need a warning. Advisory maybe and that’s it. Obviously the NWS knows more than I do.
No Joyce, just a good cold rain tomorrow.
I honestly think for once, the cold air will win this battle
NWS revised their numbers in Louisville area to 3-5 inches of snow and 1 inch of sleet! That would be pretty significant if the high end verifies!
What should I sacrifice to the snow gods if this becomes a reality? I certainly hope we get this much snow in the ville. Though getting up early to take the wife to work is a pain lol.
According to NWS, Louisville is right on the 3 – 5 (with an inch of sleet and .10 of ice) and the 1 – 4 (with an inch of sleet and .10 of ice) line.
All the while, WAVE 3 just said not too long ago that the models were trending with LESS for Louisville.
LESS…. than expected. ; ) It still will be dangerous on the roads though. Perhaps this means good news for us more east folks. I am going to start using, “Than expected” too! 🙂
Professor: You failed your test.
Student: No….I just got more wrong ‘than expected’….
See?! It works! 🙂 Winning!
good one
how about this one:
Policeman: sir, do you know how fast you were going ?
Driver: yes, faster than expected
Gotta remember this the models get wishey washey at times this is more of a now casting situation. The county’s bordering the Ohio River you guys will see everything
It is 75 here I just hope we don’t flood.Everyone stay safe.
POURING the rain here and 61 deg! Will be interesting to see what we get here in my area, we are right on the Ohio river just out of Ashland KY so we are as far north east KY as you can get!!!!!
Looks like temp just dropped 5 degrees within last 40 min in Boyd co according to temp map Chris has posted.
On the NWS conference call said Lexington could see 3-5″ of snow on Sunday or .25 to .75 of an inch of ice. Depends on how warm it gets. Just letting you Lexington folks know.
.50 inch of ice will snap power lines ………… .75 would be catastrophic …. I pray nobody gets that much ice.
No–not really. .50 inches of ice creates sporadic power outages. It takes at least an inch of ice to create catastrophic conditions unless you have extreme winds to accompany the ice. In January of 2004, Lexington had an ice storm with about .50 inches of ice with very little power problems. Compare that to February 2003 with 1.25 inches of ice. There is a big difference.
Oh okay …… thanks Mr Science
tell my husband that who is a lineman and spends days working ice storms!!!
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=ice_impact_index
Here’s a link showing the impact of ice.
Touché I will take experience over supposed scientific # anyday
especially if the ‘science’ is from the federal government! lol
Mr. Science is correct!
No need for you to be insulting and rude whatsoever.
2003 ice storm – no power loss at residence
2004 ice storm – no power for 4 days
Keep in mind, I lived in the same huge neighborhood for both of those events.
I understand the math and the expectations based on them, but to quote the esteemed Capt. Barbosa, “I think they’re more like guidelines.”
Snow! Snow!! Snow!!!
Anything but ice!!
The local news was talking about how hard it will be to travel to Dallas for the UK game. As of this morning, that was the major impact this storm was having on Kentuckians. Let’s keep it that way. No power outages.
The most telling thing on the temp map is that there are very few locations in the 50’s. A bunch in mid-40’s and then the 60’s. Looks like a fast drop once the cold air gets to you.
Been sitting in the Upper 40’s now in Lawrenceburg since Noon. The temp drop has really slowed.
Current temps:
Crossville TN is 67
Nashville TN is 49
Clarksville TN is 41
Crossville is usually the cool spot since it’s on the Plateau.
Per the KY Mesonet, far eastern KY has a 72 while far western KY has a 34. Pretty much as CB predicted.
Noticed while reading one of the forecast discussions that this thing has not been fully sampled by the american models so still some time to shift around. Although it is probably wise to pay attention to the short range models like the HRRR,SREF,etc this close anyway
Still 70 degrees in London with blowing rains. I’m glad we’re likely to NOT get the major ice, but would love a little snow. Even then, would take a lot to stick after a day like today. Everyone in SE KY, hike to the top of the nearest hill. Stay out of the valleys. Someone build an Ark.
Into the 50s now in greenup ky
CB has a map out on his facebook page. Looks like a minor winter event for most of Central KY. Nuisance, yes. Looks like 1-2 inches of sleet and snow for Lexington metro with about .10 inches of ice. Wondering what Sunday will bring?
Does that map suggest all three, or one of the possibilities determined by the temperature?
NowCasting is always best.
I have heard skeptics are being blocked from commenting….. I wonder if that is true?
For the first round of winter wx tonight/Friday, looks like western TN and perhaps parts of far western KY will get the worst of the freezing rain. Other areas to the east may thankfully get a bit more of a mix and thus less freezing rain. While even a millimeter of ice can be very dangerous on the roads, at least there may not be big power problems.
As Chris touched on, freezing rain may be even more widespread for round two this weekend. It’s still early and thus things are far from set in stone, but western Tennessee may get slammed yet again along with more of southern Kentucky. Stay tuned, folks.
I am definitely staying tuned! All of you are such great sources of information.
I need to give a huge shout out to Chris Bailey. He gave me a week’s warning on this and I was able to make arrangements to drive three hours on Thursday and Saturday instead of Friday and Sunday. That is a huge relief and could not have been done without proper advance notice.
Thank you, Chris!!!
18z nam is quite the difference from 12z for northern sections of Ky. Impressive run of snow
Are you freaking kidding me, shouldnt these things have this nailed down by now.
NOWCASTING is in progress for the next 24 hours!
Link?
What does it say?
Well Chris – Here is your 40 degree gradient. At 2:45, Mesonet showed 33 degrees in Morganfield out west and 73 degrees in Whitesburg. Amazing occurrence.
OHIO RIVER COUNTY ROUND one, no rain /well flooding wihth round 1 either in south. so glad that was a busy.
Flooding was expected today and round one is just gettong started Knox is getting hammered atm no bust here
was=wasn’t
Andy Weingarten of Wave 3 just posted a blog and it seems like he’s saying Louisville will be lucky to get an inch.
Yes and Andy has great points. Never trust models. This event gets lighter as we go. Don’t expect much in the metro and some mets on a few blogs still won’t pin down totals. 24 hours out and not going on record is not forecasting.
First mistake there don’t ever listen to Andy Weingarten he is about as accurate as UofL football covering a point spread.
That other lex station chick MET just said a dusting for Lexington! WOW their are a lot of variable forecast out their! Flip a coin I guess, since thats what they seem to be doing??
Seems as all the power has been transferred to the NEXT storm. Or perhaps the one after. Or perhaps…
Models, models, models. Why hath you forsaken us?
Forecast fallen off the track now as far as frozen stuff for Friday?
who said?
Seems some mets to the west are backing down some. That would appear to telegraph our result to some degree. The flow looks North, North East. How much precipitation will be left when the colder air finally gets here?
Case in point, no warning for our area yet.
Wasnt expecting a warning for my area unless it was flood and since we are just getting started it would be foolish to expect it
Bubba,it sounds like by CB’s latest twitter post he is actually increasing the snow chances and amounts for our neck of the woods for tonight.
If you want to know what the weather will be at any given time this weekend, look out your window. You may be at 33 degrees and heavy rain. Your neighbor a hundred feet higher may be 31.5 and ice. That’s how this is shaking out. It may be a bust in your backyard and five miles away and a few hundred feet higher they have no power.
True True
I’m confused how the forecast is on track when a forecast hasn’t been made. Is there a snow map? Ice totals? Something?
Rained hard in Knott county @430, but only lasted 20 minutes still really warm
It seemed like the local mets in Lexington outside of Chris were saying nothing frozen until noon-3:00 PM tomorrow. It has dropped from 64-39 here since 8:00 AM. Is it really going to take another 17 hours to drop 7 degrees with nightfall here?
CB has an update on Twitter. He has Lexington in the 2″-4″ band now for tonight.
CB says it is going to snow tonight and just above are the totals. He is saying 4″-6″ for Louisville tonight. That is tonight only and doesn’t count tomorrow and tomorrow night or the Saturday night-Sunday night period.
Unless he has changed it since 4 pm this is the forecast
http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Winter-storm-takes-aim-at-Kentucky-234633221.html
1-4 for Louisville through Friday and 1 inch for Lexington area through Friday.
4-6″ would be nice. From everything I’ve seen though looks like a sleet and cold rain storm.
WLKY has taken down their snow totals for Louisville. They gone with up to an inch for most of Jefferson County while the most northern end is in the 1-3 range.
I’ve said rain all week but I had my hopes up I would be wrong. It looks like my hopes are dashed for a good snow. 🙁
I follow Kentucky Weather Center on Twitter and I see no tweets suggesting 4-6 for Louisville or 2-4 for Lexington.
neither do I
Looks like someone was simply trolling or something was said on a broadcast that hasn’t made it to Twitter yet. I suspect trolling of the first order.
Robbie,if you look on CBs twitter account on Ky Weather he states that snow totals have increased tonight in plain black print. Open the photo link and the map shows the snow total bands. Maybe I misread or misinterpreted the map. Probably is for tonight through tomorrow.
That graphic which appears on his twitter feed is of Ohio, not Kentucky.
Anyone know what: “Denied access by Sucuri” means? I know of several people who receive that message when they try to post.
Its probably a spam filter.
I get that if I try to post on my laptop or desktop. But I dont on my phone.
It looks as though Jackson NWS is giving just heavy rain for Sun/Mon system
Andy Rose I just heard your name from Shane on wymt when he was doing weather on air.He mentioned your Tweet.
8 miles north west of Murray, KY. 34 degrees and rain mixing with sleet.
I check the forecasts for my area every few hours and the forecasted temps sat-Monday keep dropping..good sign?