Good Thursday evening, folks. Nothing has changed with my end of the forecast and eveything continues to be playing out as planned. Wave one of this winter storm starts tonight and works into central Kentucky late tonight into early Friday.
Here’s a look at the wide variety of watches and warnings…
It’s odd to see a Winter Storm Watch with less than 24 hours until the start of an event, but this will be the battle zone between the big snow and ice and the big rains.
Here’s how I see the first wave playing out…
As you can see, I have everything in the forecast for each location. The numbers may vary depending on which precipitation type becomes dominant. Again… don’t JUST focus on snowfall amounts!
The next wave coming Saturday night and Sunday continues to look ugly with freezing rain, sleet and snow impacting much of the state.
I see some of you wondering about why some comments are picked up by a security system we have in place. Here’s the deal… those who try to comment under multiple names get flagged by the system. We had a couple of trolls last year trying to start fights with me and others on here. If you stick to the same username, you will be fine. 🙂
Take care.
I’m surprised there’s not at least a winter weather advisory for greenup county..
I hope it will not be as bad as you say it will but like I said so many times before the weather is unpredictable it could be nothing or it could bad.
I really like the looks of late Saturday night into Sunday morn! I see Central ky getting in on some snow, still early season so an inch or so would be great. Just hope enough cold air can stay in place as I think the moisture should really explode!! Where’s OTIS?
And CB brings up my point: An imminent system and still no warnings. Warnings usually precede an event and not when it happens. That would be more a Play by Play.
Unless its a flood event then you get a warning when it has already occurred
Hunkered down and ready to go. Still strictly rain here right now but anxiously awaiting the snow! I appreciate all you do and watch your winter forecasts over anyone local. You share much more of what you have so much more quickly. Thanks again!
I’m sorry. “Here” is Franklin, Ohio. I’m about twenty minutes (via I75) south of Dayton.
Can anyone say repeat of December ’04? An inch or less of snow in CKY, while 50mi. away to the N and W gets hammered by yet another big snow event. This is indeed the sad reality for snow lovers in CKY. Quite possibly the most frustrating place on earth to be a snow lover – true limbo for us!
Only difference..not as much snow as ’04. I believe some places in Southern Indiana got 30 inches in that storm.
True. I drove through there a few days later. It was quite impressive. I saw some buildings completely buried in drifts around Seymour, IN!
hang in there Chris!! There may be only a few of us that blog on here, but I’ve been reading your post like hundreds of others for years without ever writing a word!! So many of us count on this site, for the latest news on the weather from someone we trust!! Keep up the good work, and we all got our bread and milk, gas in the generators, firewood stacked to the ceiling!! As prepared as we can get lol
Ditto!
Goes for me too! I seldom comment, but your weather is the first thing I look at every morning and multiple, multiple times during the day at times like this! Keep up the good work!
Same goes for me! Different Adam here, obviously, lol. I lurk, but don’t like to comment.
Just saw a post on twitter showing the new European run for snowfall…much of the northern part of state is 8
Inches +
That also includes western ky..Louisville and lex are invluded..model is through monday
For what day is the European showing day that snowfall?
I wanted to snow so bad but I’m really getting frustrated with the snow forecast models and all the Mets who have different forecast. underachiever or overachiever it is getting to the point where I don’t really care anymore.
I don’t comment very much but I read this post every day!! I’m a wedding coordinator and rely on this blog to tell my brides. Unfortunately, I have a wedding on Saturday. 🙁
Sharon where have you been lol?????? Hope you have been good.
Well Chris…I have been a loyal poster for 3 years…Ive never been a troll or started a fight with you…yet I get the ‘denied access by sucuri’ message on my home computers when I try to post. I did once try to change to my first name since I moved to Cecilia and the ‘etownKY’ name was no longer correct. 🙂 so could you let me back in please? I am getting too old to see this phone keyboard lol 😉
I’ve used the same user name and email since the start of the blog way back before you even moved to Huntington, and even still sometimes it seems if I write more than two sentences, I don’t get an error, but it just doesn’t post (not always, but most of the time)
wow, pretty exciting to have this kind of thing this early in the season. i sure hope it bodes well for a snowy winter.
thanks chris, for all you do!
and thanks to all the mets and met wannabes who share their opinions and predictions.
What time does the switch to nonrain happen in the Lexington area?
darn those trolls 🙂 we read your weather every day and love it Santa will leave them coal
Very windy here in Ashland!
Thanks for keeping us updated but what should we expect for wave two ( northeastern counties along the river)?
Read multiple times a day- love love love this blog!! Thanks for all you do.
Nothing to see here, flooding only concern.no major ice nore snow except for ohio river counties..
Somebody has to be the fence for winter! It is Fencetucky’s solemn job and we by golly do it well! Oooraahh!
Dangerous driving though with what little we may get is still something to both see and be careful in. Some have no choice but get out in the muck.
Seems to be getting a little colder than what it really is here in Lou. 40 miles from the 4-8 kinda makes a snow lover sick. I have said from the get go that the fence would sit on the river. Thanks Chris for the update. Hope it over acheives on the snow side for us.
Thanks for all you do, Chris. Lots of us enjoy the site and depend on your forecasts. Keep up the good work!
What is ice storm criteria for NWS? I just looked at the WSW for Memphis and surrounding areas…quarter inch expected. My area falls in the quarter inch range in Kentucky. Just wondering what’s the difference? Is it because they are expected to have more wind?
Maybe they are not on board with CBs forecast? Anymore delays if they intended to post a warning now borders on comical. That boats done sailed and with plenty of water under it’s hull! Haaarrrrr!
Ruh roh!
Double bad news: Based on CB’s tweet, not much snow, but perhaps more ice & sleet.
Weather Prediction Center has indeed extended higher ice chances further into central Kentucky for Fri/Sat. Granted, it may not be as bad as far western KY into western Tennessee and Arkansas, so central KY could avoid widespread power outage issues. But ice is still ice.
And we will still have round two to deal with on Sunday….yet more freezing rain.
WSW and other warnings and advisories vary on region, we have “stricter” criteria for warnings and advisories.
Somewhat like comparing what NWS Buffalo NY does compared to with a winter event by NWS Jacksonville FL.
As it was, I think NWS Memphis was also expecting a relatively high percentage of their overall precip to be freezing rain, thus their Ice Storm Warning. Where as other NWS offices were expecting more of a mix with the freezing rain so they stuck with WSWs.
hope this helps:
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A few lightning strikes on lightning map showing up in the Hopkinsville/Bowling Green/Clarksville TN area.
What time does the rain stop in the Lexington area and everything else begin?
New KWC handle to distinguish me (Mark in Nashville TN) from other KWC posters named Mark. Thanks, CB!
Thanks for keeping those of us in the WSAZ coverage area in mind as you post your maps. I appreciate you and the work you do. You are still my #1 go-to guy for weather..
Kentucky weather chat
http://kywxchat.webs.com/
Is the moisture in Indiana going to sink south appears to me that Louisville is on the edge for a turnover to snow or will we be dry sloted throughout the whole event.
dry slot…..dry slot…..ATTENTION……..dry slot!
I see the dry slot, but also see pink behind it in West TN. I just drove home and there are flakes mixing in with the rain in Georgetown.
Georgetown Indiana
Kentucky
okay there is a Georgetown Indiana right across the river on I 64 not far from Louisville.
anyway watching the radar there is not much pink on it maybe we will have a quick changeover from rain to snow.
just hoping
Looking at some of the short range models it shows a dry slot over western Kentucky for the next 8 hours which was not shown on the other models. Here in Murray it has been dry for the last several hours which wasn’t forecast.
I’m in Corydon IN a few exits down from Georgetown IN and it
is just really cold right now and the wind is blowing.
I like corydon. if I had to move to a small town around Louisville it would be in my top 3 choices.
I know means I am an expert on whether, I do not know what this means but I just went out and looked at the national radar and I do not see much of a pink transition zone. of course I know there is sleet in that blue but the majority of it is blue touching green not pink touching green. maybe the models did underestimate a colder solution
maybe Walter White is operating the AccuWeather radar. my baby blue.
Better call Saul !
Temp sitting at 37 in Lawrenceburg, KY. I didn’t think it was supposed to be this cold this early?
WeatherBug at Keeneland is at 34, the mesonet site just north of Frankfort is at 33. I believe it will be frozen precip well before noon tomorrow.
Pouring the rain here in Irvine and the temps are still dropping. Like the song says, “The weather outside is frightful, but inside it’s so delightful” The rest of the song is, “Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow” Not sleet or freezing rain!
Already 39 in greenup..I hope the temps keep dropping
Really? You live where it is all underground residential power cable You like no power? UB silly man.
Meant for snow man
But we were not going to get much snow out of this. Instead of a fun fluffy snow ball, a big heavy chunk of ice. Boo to Kentucky winters!
Bubba I hope you are not turning into one of those “if you like X then you love power outages” moonbats.
For ice events, yes. We should be rooting against it and not for it, and always remember the real enemy is half man, half bear and half pig. ManBearPig.
It can be 32 degrees all it wants but nothing is falling in Louisville. Looks to be that way for a long time.
why are you on this blog at this moment your boys are in a dogfight with the Bearcats right now
I am watching the game and the Texans Jaguars. It’s fantasy football playoffs.
that was a hell of a play by Bridgewater
Take a look to your west all that is coming. As a matter of fact one of the local mets in Louisville is now saying the recent data is showing the storm slow down the models have underestimated the temp profiles by midnight area along the Ohio river including Lousville metro will start developing sleet and by 4am freezing rain.
Perhaps a sign of things to come for our area.
Freezing rain now falling in much of Texas. Including Dallas/Ft Worth and Waco. Even as far south as Johnson City which is just north of San Antonio.
Wonder if the Kentucky/Baylor basketball games will be affected? Hopefully the teams and fans had early travel plans.
All rain for us in SE/KY….bummer :/
I disagree, thankful for plain old rain
This.
Nothing wrong with liking snow.
But it ain’t snow on the menu, it is Ice sorbet, Ice cream, Ice cones and Icees, but no Snow cones one the menu.
agree with bubba on this one
Polly want a cracker?
Marc Weinberg from WDRB just posted, “The late data is rolling in now and is slower with the storm. That allows more cold air to get in and could impact snow totals.”
What snow? It be all ice man! Even to the north it will probably favor more ice than snow unless closer to the belly of the beast (that would be in Indiana way).
Don’t like the dry slot on radar. Although there is a lot of precip back into TX that has to come through are region. Could get real crazy along the river.
Thanks for the wonderful job you do with the weather. I go to your forecast even for this part of the state.
I never doubted the moisture would be there. It’s there. I do have a concern. Just because we switch to snow quicker does not mean it does not keep changing between snow, sleet, freezing rain. If it was all snow I think Louisville may have been blitzed
Still no warning? What is the criteria now? Locusts and rivers of blood?
They just upgrade some counties to a WINTER STORM WARNING and others to a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. They also dropped some counties all together!
Yep, looks like at least Madison is dropped and so is Fayette. I am hoping the awesome power of the Kentucky River will stunt any ice impact.
It’s already 37 here in greenup…def wasn’t suppose to be this cold this early
Scott County now with a WINTER STORM WARNING!
We just had thunder and lightening for a few minutes!
Watch out for what’s over Texas right now; the radar is filling in and the weather down there is producing 6+ inches of snow in some places. It is 31 degrees at my house and tomorrow’s high is 33 with temps falling throughout the day. I wouldn’t be surprised if this storms overachieves with snow totals.
Where are you Brandon?
Hopkinsville. I am noticing a few things that cause or snow totals to be higher than predicted. The storm is moving very slow and the cold air seems to be getting further ahead of the storm as time goes on
Yes def noticed how slow the storm is moving and how the temps are getting colder much faster
it is 32.2 here in NE Louisville (Worthington Hills)
Here’s to waking up to a winter wonderland
It’s 32 in my part of Hardin county with a light rain and sleet-like mix. I’m off to bed with dreams of snow and no ice. Would like to wake up to heat and the smell of coffee. Be safe all.
35 here in greenup county with a light breeze up here on the ridge…def is getting colder much faster