Good Friday, folks. A major winter storm system is throwing the first round of nasty weather our way today and this is going to cause a lot of problems. Significant ice and snow accumulations will be likely across portions of central, northern and western parts of the state. Round two comes Saturday night and Sunday and will have a bigger impact farther east.
With such a wide variety of precipitation type expected today, forecasting accumulations is tougher than tough. Sleet, snow and freezing rain will slug it out as the mix line works southeastward into central Kentucky early this morning. That line will work slowly eastward later this afternoon and early evening. Given all that, here’s what may happen…
The numbers you see for for sleet and snow combined and will vary greatly… especially with freezing rain being thrown into the mix. Some areas may pick up better than a quarter of an inch of freezing rain and that would be more than enough to cause significant issues.
Travel will be greatly impacted for areas north and west of the blue line. Parts of northern and western Kentucky may get into a situation where some roads are forced to be shut down. There’s also the chance for some power issues in these areas.
Arctic cold grips the region tonight into Sunday. Readings may drop into single digits in the far west and north with teens for many others. Highs in the 20s will be as good as many can get with some flurries around.
The next wave comes Saturday night into Sunday and will likely bring significant snow, sleet and freezing rain to much of the state. Even areas of the southeast will likely see a period of frozen precipitation. There’s some indication of a decent snowfall before freezing rain takes over into central and northeastern Kentucky. Sunday is going to be super nasty!
We have to take them one and a time, and today’s system is first on the list. Here are the tracking tools…
Current Temperatures
I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort
Frankfort
I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-24 MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I will update as I can and will send out rapid fire thoughts via twitter. Help us out by posting the weather where you live.
On a related note… the expected traffic of 200,000 hits today will give our server a big time test. Here’s hoping the extra money I spent to upgrade it does the trick. 🙂
Stay safe and take care.
Could Lawrenceburg pick up 4 inches?
This storm sure is nasty!
Starting in Louisville. Light freezing rain and sleet.
Since the cold is coming in faster will that increase the snow totals? Is it snowing in Louisville?
folks it,s going to be a long long winter
Thirty minutes north of Cinci. For two hours now freezing rain/rain. Not Much accumulation of ice so far thank Goodness. Map shows snow here so hopefully it will transition soon with no more ice. Be safe everyone!
At 4:00am, rain was falling at Louisville Int’l. My windshield there had a light glaze of ice.
On my ride home to Valley Station (6 miles SW of airport), encountered a little bit of sleet near Fairdale, but primary precip has been light rain and drizzle. However, it’s been freezing on contact with limbs and plastic/metallic surfaces. Roadways were just wet despite temperature of 32 degrees.
Jefferson County Public Schools have decided to close for today.
Icy glaze covering most of outside surfaces. They have already called off school here and in surrounding counties. Hate using a snow day this early, but safety is more important!
Chris Thanks for the update. Glad JCPS decided to cancel school early. Seems to be a wicked cutoff from the heavy snow to sleet around the Ohio river later the afternoon. Hope we here in Lou. Can get into the snow a little quicker.
Heading out to throw salt. Anyone want to join in my fun.
yeah let me get my life preserver
Woke up this morning in Louisville and my car was completely covered in a coating of ice. It wasn’t extremely thick, but it was there. That was at about 4:30 EST this morning.
Woke up to thunder and torrential rain in London. Not sure I’ve ever been in a 35 degree thunderstorm. Hoping everything frozen holds off until after school. Everyone be safe today!
So far not impressed. Precip moving in from the southwest so we will see later today if I change my mind.
In Louisville snow rates could go 1 to 1.5 inches per hour by early afternoon. Freezing drizzle in north central ky a lull in the precipitation however out to the west precipitation rapidly organizing and filling back in.Temp at Louisville Airport is down to 31 and in the burbs 29 to 30 degrees
Are one of the local mets suggesting those snowfall rates?
This is Chris Baileys Weather Page he puts up for all of us with his own forecast. He is usually more accurate than the other meteorologist’s. I think he is the best around.
Yes, Lauren Jones husband from Fox41 said 1 to 1.5″ snowfall rates per hour this afternoon is possible.
Quick summary of snowfall totals for Louisville from the 4 networks:
WHAS11: 1-4″
WAVE3: 2-4″
WLKY32: 3-6″
WDRB41: 3-5″
So, anywhere from 1-6″. I called for 3-6″ 24 hours ago and I am sticking to it.
good morning everyone.
I am located in Louisville, 1 mile west of downtown and 4 city blocks south of the river.
it is 30 degrees, thin layer of ice on trees, and deck.
Hope the snow starts soon, Rather have snow than ice.
Already spread my salt this morning 🙂
be safe everyone!!!!
Wow, we finally got one in NORTHWEST KY! Local TV mets calling for 6-12″. Finally! Woohoo!!
Juts cold rain in North Richmond and school today. Seems for now we missed the action. Given all the buzz a few days ago and yesterday, we dodged an ice bullet- for now. Cold cold rain so far. Hence we are the bottom fringe from the main frozen stuff flowing north, north east.
Sad thing is with the lower amounts, some folks will drive silly and we get more accidents than if we were a main part of the system flow for frozen stuff.
Ice bullet wasn’t suppose to be fired your way till this afternoon go back to the Death Star Darth Bubba
It probably will not be too bad in the Richmond area as far as totals. Roads though will almost certainly become dangerous, none the less.
As far area Louisville folks, the call is mainly a bad ice event, so not seeing why people there would be pumped. It is miserable bad type weather and reminds me of an equally bad song that rips Queen’s Under Pressure off.
Bubba, some mets believe the transition in Louisville will be sooner than later to snow most stations going with a 2-4, 3-6 inch snow in Louisville
That would be real good news!
Bubba, looking at the radar starting to really fill in now and shift east down from Paducah. I actually think Louisville will get in on 1/4″ (1/8″ has fallen so far) of ice, but also 3-6″ of snow. That was my call yesterday morning. I just have a feeling Louisville is getting in on the white stuff this time around.
That is a PERFECT sleigh surface!
yes, it sure is!
On a side note, does anyone else think it sounds silly to be naming this “Winter Storms” like a hurricane. The Weather Channel keeps saying Cleon is making a mess in the middle of the country. Supposedly, Dion is next?
BUBBA its all about BUZZ/HYPE ratings man.. BLOG HITS..
There is some truth to that, but better to go a tad over the top so the message gets to as many people to be careful.
Plenty of milk and bread this morning, so almost like we are already at the “cry wolf” stage (from a miss rate over the years). With cold surfaces and precip, it does not matter how much you get and actually more dangerous with the smaller events.
Not a CB miss, but the models for snow in general.
Someone take away Rolo’s keyboard please.
I’m still confused about those who are saying this system has been hyped. The freezing rain falling here now tells me it wasn’t. Thus far, things are playing out as forecasted.
We have had lots a rain here forecast seems to be on par
Hype can be valid too, so does not mean the event is any less. The perception is based on people that read the blog and miss that a lot of CBs posts are his rolling thoughts of the event.
This was never a snow centric event, but an ice event. Inch totals therefore are not is what to measure, but how dangerous the roads and how heavy the ice on tress and structures.
Agreed, my friend. But BubbaG, we have to figure out what we are doing wrong! We NEED a good snow in our neck of the woods. 😉
As this one unfolds, although I want it to snow, I do not wish freezing rain on anyone. More dangerous than a big snowfall.
I am in SE/KY where rain has been the ONLY players in the game, lol…As I looked at the radars out west and saw that beautiful blue (snow), my heart began to grieve 🙁 …I just want some snow, puh-leease! 😛
Enjoy the snow up in KY! 😉 One of these days Nashvegas will get its due snowstorm…I hope…
33 degrees with drizzle here in Lawrenceburg. I’m watching the temp closely–it doesn’t take much freezing drizzle to make the roads messy. And it has now been in the 30’s for over 12 hours–I would think the road surface has cooled off accordingly.
Did Anderson county have school?
Anderson County School are closed today.
Mercer County is also closed
Not Burgin….
33 degrees and nothing falling at the moment in Burgin ( mercer )
Looks like a good portion of “The dome” is also where there are currently no watches in place.
Here’s your 100% correct Summer forecast for central KY……warm rain.
Here’s your 100% correct Winter forecast for central KY……cold rain.
BigPoppaSnow
Hear, hear!
anybody know what time the change over to snow begins in Louisville. Pierre said I’m going to have to drive around in it today.
All local mets saying 1-5 is snow time in Louisville
around 1pm or so for Louisville most likely.
According to Chris and anybody that can see Pink on the radar it should be starting now
I think they were asking about the switch to all snow. Pink is still the freezing rain and sleet, which I’m sure you know.
which means the change over is starting which I’m sure you know
hmmm…ok
Out throwing salt. Roads are fine as our most sidewalks. Decks another story then layer of ice equals ice rick. I suppose if this system pushes over the Ohio River. IF being the biggest question, we here in Louisville will be in for some nice accumulations. Still think 80% of this falls as freezing rain/sleet in the metro. Going to have to travel North for the heavy snow. Be safe everyone and I hope you all get the weather you desire.
I think you need to remove the “n” from “nice” as far a what will likely accumulate the most. You guys seem the “sweet” for the stuff. If mainly snow instead- good!
If the snow does fall after some ice, you will have a perfect sleigh condition. It will also last a lot longer than just snow since isolates better than just loose snow.
That is a good point about the sleigh riding. Looks like radar filling in dry slot back to the west. 1/2 inch of ice is very possible along the river. Could be a very long day. Hope you get in on some of the fun. You may have to wait for the Sat./Sun. System.
And just to throw a bit of road salt in the wound, what little we do get here in the Lex area will quickly melt off, since we’re back to rain again by Sunday-Monday, followed then by the usual dry cold…
34 degrees with a cold, cold drizzle and thin layer of ice here in the holler (the suburbs of Millville in Woodford Co.). Thanks, Chris, for providing such a great weather resource! Everyone be safe, especially those in da ‘ville!
Ice falling in Burgin…31 on my back porch.
Holy cow at the Nam..
thats not fair you have to share! 🙂
Well if the Nam is right i would say the totals will go up for snow/ice on CB’s map..
for whom?
This is for saturday evening/night
Don’t you mean Fri night?
Did the NAM go Bam. Share please. Don’t have access to the models at this time.
Tried to post the maps but gets lost in cyber space
Freezing rain is really starting to pick up in Louisville. Outside my house, the trees are becoming pretty glazed. I would imagine the roads will start to become an issue in the next couple hours, too. It is currently 28.8
Its 33 degrees and a cold, cold rain here at Crab Orchard.
Waffling between 32 and 33 and a cold rain here in DogWalk!
Plain rain and 32 in Burgin now.
Last hour, moderate sleet as close as Tell City (from Louisville)
Rain for parts of Louisville
Very light rain at my house
Nevertheless, temperature is 29
Rapid Refresh Model (15z) shows sleet betw 12 and 1p
Changeover to snow by 3p
2-4″ countywide for Louisville.
persistent dry slot around frankfort area the past several hours, temp 31, so if we get precip it should be frozen!
Still have freezing rain here. This is from Daviess County Ky Weather Spotters:
Roads continue to deteriorate. Help us (as well as others on here) by reporting road conditions where you are at in the comments section here. We are especially concerned about main roads and highways. If you don’t need to get out, don’t. ~ T.C.
Woke up to a very light coating of ice in my part of Hardin county then a dry slot (thankfully, in this case). Dry slot is filling in and temp is 30 degrees with very light freezing rain and a few small snow flakes mixed in.
Nam gives Lex. 6-8 inches snow thru Sunday!
James what does it have for southern indiana if you dont mind answering please.
8-10
Thank you 🙂
European model snow through Monday = WOW!!!!!
Where’s the Euro?
IWBIWISI Alert
Nothing worse than a 34 deg cold rain.
Please bring back 75 and sunny
False. 31 degree freezing rain is much worse than 34 degree rain.
Reports of a foot of snow in northern Arkansas, oh how sweet that would be!
I tried to post this a minute ago, but nothing happened. Anyway, I’ll try again. John Belski was on a local Louisville radio station and said if the changeover occurs by 1PM, Louisville will get 6 inches, by 3PM about 3-4 inches, and by 5 PM about an inch. He did say that Evansville had changed over to snow by the 10AM hour so that might give Louisville a clue when the change starts here.
Look at that nice big dry slot heading out of Tennessee towards Lexington.
Dry slots keep forming and heading into central KY! Even if it gets cold enough for snow the DOME always has something to throw at us!
It does seem to defy statistical odds doesn’t it!
Please wind. blow about 60 miles east to get this snow in to Madison County
Right at 32 degrees here in Shelbyville. Light rain. Can’t tell I’d it’s freezing rain or just rain. Doesn’t seem to be glazing anywhere. My family in DFW metroplex are sending me impressive storm pics.
I lied. Power lines across the street are glazed.
State Football Championship game for Scott County – Meade County has been moved to Saturday. That puts 5 buses of band students and at least 4 buses of players, plus the cheerleaders and dance team getting back into Georgetown around midnight. Will the second round of winter weather impact this? I need some expert opinions here, they will be hauling a lot of precious cargo.
Thank for your help…I really rely on all you guys for my weather updates!
It’s down to 31.9 degrees in Bowling Green now after holding on to 33 for the entire night and morning. I suspect we will look a lot like Paducah by tomorrow morning :/
LMK NWS office raising ICE ACCUMULATIONS for Hardin County:
This Afternoon Rain or freezing rain before 2pm, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with rain and sleet between 2pm and 4pm, then freezing rain and sleet after 4pm. High near 32. North wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime ice accumulation of 0.4 to 0.6 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected
Southwest side of Louisville sleet is really beginning to mix in with the freezing rain
Been a very long time since I’ve seen this duration of moderate/heavy snow in our area. Still extends back to Arkansas and all headed this way!!!
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz in Greenup
Rain and Snow and sleet mixed in here now.