Monthly Archives: September 2018

Time posted: 1:44 am

Storms Set To Return

Good Sunday to one and all. September is going out on a very fine weather note, but October looks to come in on an all too familiar note. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in the week ahead as we eye some very cold air to the north and west, and an increase in tropical action.

Temps today are in the 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds thicken later tonight and Monday as scattered showers and storms rumble back in. Watch how this action rolls right on into Tuesday…

Temps for the week ahead are above normal with many days in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels are also up and that’s likely bad news.

We are coming off the wettest September on record and the month ahead looks like more of the same. Hopefully, nowhere near the extent of what we just had, but October looks to be much wetter than average.

The next round of showers and storms arrives later in the week and may carry us into the weekend…

It’s at this point the tropics may have a lot to say with what happens to our weather. Some big time cold fronts make a run at us during this time…

Fall weather loves REALLY need the tropics to calm down before we can get sustained chill in here.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:40 am

Looking Down The Weather Road

Good Saturday, folks. It’s a gorgeous weekend in the bluegrass state as we get ready to slam the door on the month of September. This nice weather won’t carry over into early October as the threat for showers and thunderstorms rolls back in.

Today starts in the upper 40s and low 50s for many and ends with upper 60s and low 70s for many. A mix of sun and clouds will fill the gap in between. Sunday’s weather will look a  lot like today, but our temps will rise several degrees.

Next week continues to look like a warm one with the threat for showers and thunderstorms increasing. The first system throws scattered storms at us on Monday, with an increase in storms by Tuesday…

The end of the week into next weekend will feature a greater threat for rain and thunderstorms as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This front has a lot of early October cold air behind it, but it’s going to try to check up on top of us. If that’s the case, waves of low pressure may develop along the front, putting us back into a very wet pattern.

The tropics may also come back to life during this time. The tropics bully the overall pattern and you can see some action showing up now…

I’m really impressed by the amount of cold showing up across North America so early in the fall season. This early season cold is laying down one heck of a snowpack for this time of year. Look at the snow for the next 2 weeks on the GFS…

Why is all that important? Because a healthy early season snowpack means the cold shots, when they come, will actually be COLD shots. If you want winter weather, the cold is an essential ingredient, obviously. While those shots haven’t been directly aimed at us, yet, they are impressive for the areas getting them. At some point, that cold hits us and may hit us pretty darn hard early on in the season.

Something else of note… The new long range European Ensembles through November 14. The new run expects much of the country to see flakes during that time period…

The control run of the European is also pretty excited…

The CFS for the fist 2 weeks of November also suggests a shot at early season flakes…

I actually think there is some merit to fall flakes this season. Several of my analog years featured November snows, including 2014. Hint hint. 😉

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:35 am

A Great Looking Weekend Begins

Good Friday to one and all. As we get ready to close the books on one of the wettest September’s on record, Mother Nature is actually sending the month out on a very nice note. The weekend weather looks nothing short of awesome, but storms are lurking for early October. That may lead us into a healthy early season cold shot by next weekend.

Let’s start with this weekend. Temps will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s across the state to start our Friday. A lingering shower quickly moves way from the east, with partly sunny skies taking control. Highs today will be in the upper 60s and low 70s for the central and east, with mid 70s west. One word of caution on the temps… If clouds linger, the numbers will be quite a bit lower.

Saturday will feature temps very similar to what we have today. Those numbers will rise well into the 70s by Sunday as we hang on to dry weather. Basically, this is a great looking fall weekend in Kentucky.

Temps are above normal next week, with a couple of systems working into town. Scattered showers and storms will flare up from time to time…

Typhoon Trami continues to recurve in the western Pacific…

As mentioned, that typically forces a trough to dig into the eastern half of the country a week or so later. Sure enough, check out the European Model temp departure late next weekend…

On a related note… Watch the tropics in the Atlantic. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of October systems making a run at the coast.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:51 am

Another Round Of Rain Rolls In

Good Thursday, folks. Our cold front has made it through Kentucky, but it’s putting on the brakes not too far away. That’s leading to additional rounds of showers impacting much of the state today. This action will slowly move away, leaving us with some very nice weather as we head into the weekend.

A wave of low pressure developing along the front will throw moisture back into our region. This actually looks like a wintertime setup, but it’s September so you get rain. Some areas of the southeast and east may pick up more than an inch of rain today with lighter amounts for the rest of the state…

Here’s what you need to track the latest round of rain…

 

With today’s showers comes some very cool high temps…

A morning shower is possible on Friday in the southeast, but clearing skies take control with lows dropping into the high 40s for some…

Highs are mainly in the upper 60s and low 70s for much of the east, with higher numbers west.

There’s almost another weak front moving in Friday night and early Saturday, bringing a little cooler brand of air for Saturday. Highs are generally upper 60s and low 70s central and east, with middle 70s west.

The nice weather rolls into Sunday, but active weather appears to work back in next week. We will watch a couple of systems bring more rounds of showers and storms our way…

Enjoy the cool and damp day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:35 am

Tracking storms and a cold front

Good Wednesday, everyone. A strong cold front is pushing across the state today, bringing strong storms and heavy rains with it. This boundary slowly sides to our south and east, with a better brand of air moving in. That said, I’m becoming more concerned this front stalls not too far away. That may keep the rain chances going for some.

Some interesting things are showing up in the longer range and I will get to those in a bit.

Let’s begin with the threat for heavy rain and strong storms. Our front is pushing through from northwest to southeast and will have most of the action along and ahead of it. A line of strong storms may be just ahead of the front, bringing the potential for high winds and hail.

Torrential rains continue to fall from these showers and storms. That will keep the flood and flash flood threat going. I have you all set to do some tracking…

 

As mentioned, the front may very well stall just to our southeast on Thursday. That’s when a wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing rain back into the east and southeast. The NAM is farthest west with the rains tomorrow…

Temps will be held way down into the 60s in many of these areas.

Showers may even linger into Friday morning across the southeast. Clearing skies should make for a great start to the weekend. Highs reach the 70-75 degree range for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Saturday looks awesome with upper 60s and low 70s for many, after starting in the 40s.

The pattern next week is threatening to take a walk on the wild side across the lower 48 and a couple tropical systems may be to blame. Let’s begin with a recurving typhoon…

As we get into the cool weather season, recurving systems in the western Pacific usually help send a deep trough into the eastern part of the United States about a week or so later.

In the eastern Pacific, Rosa is forecast to head toward the Baja, with the remnants getting into the southwestern part of the country…

So… we have pattern that should favor a big trough digging into the country at the same time the remnants of a Pacific tropical system are working into the southwestern part of the country.

The GFS takes that system and bombs it out ahead of the trough digging in behind it, then opens the floodgates on cold weather. Check out all the blue showing up on this…

That’s pretty amazing to see for the first week of October, even if it is just on a computer model.

The Canadian isn’t that far behind…

My earlier than normal frost thoughts are still alive and well for the first week and change of October.

Looking longer range at the latest European Ensembles run through the first week of November, we find the pattern flipping colder than normal. The latest also shows the first flake action showing up during this time…

That’s a heck of a snowpack being put down across Canada. Very interesting!

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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