Tracking storms and a cold front

Good Wednesday, everyone. A strong cold front is pushing across the state today, bringing strong storms and heavy rains with it. This boundary slowly sides to our south and east, with a better brand of air moving in. That said, I’m becoming more concerned this front stalls not too far away. That may keep the rain chances going for some.

Some interesting things are showing up in the longer range and I will get to those in a bit.

Let’s begin with the threat for heavy rain and strong storms. Our front is pushing through from northwest to southeast and will have most of the action along and ahead of it. A line of strong storms may be just ahead of the front, bringing the potential for high winds and hail.

Torrential rains continue to fall from these showers and storms. That will keep the flood and flash flood threat going. I have you all set to do some tracking…

 

As mentioned, the front may very well stall just to our southeast on Thursday. That’s when a wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing rain back into the east and southeast. The NAM is farthest west with the rains tomorrow…

Temps will be held way down into the 60s in many of these areas.

Showers may even linger into Friday morning across the southeast. Clearing skies should make for a great start to the weekend. Highs reach the 70-75 degree range for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Saturday looks awesome with upper 60s and low 70s for many, after starting in the 40s.

The pattern next week is threatening to take a walk on the wild side across the lower 48 and a couple tropical systems may be to blame. Let’s begin with a recurving typhoon…

As we get into the cool weather season, recurving systems in the western Pacific usually help send a deep trough into the eastern part of the United States about a week or so later.

In the eastern Pacific, Rosa is forecast to head toward the Baja, with the remnants getting into the southwestern part of the country…

So… we have pattern that should favor a big trough digging into the country at the same time the remnants of a Pacific tropical system are working into the southwestern part of the country.

The GFS takes that system and bombs it out ahead of the trough digging in behind it, then opens the floodgates on cold weather. Check out all the blue showing up on this…

That’s pretty amazing to see for the first week of October, even if it is just on a computer model.

The Canadian isn’t that far behind…

My earlier than normal frost thoughts are still alive and well for the first week and change of October.

Looking longer range at the latest European Ensembles run through the first week of November, we find the pattern flipping colder than normal. The latest also shows the first flake action showing up during this time…

That’s a heck of a snowpack being put down across Canada. Very interesting!

Have a great Wednesday and take care.


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17 Responses to Tracking storms and a cold front

  1. Terry says:

    They really need to extend the flood watch in SE KY as the data shows a widespread 1 to 2 inches today and possibly over an inch Thursday and Friday.

    We may get a ton of rain next week as Well. Yikes!

  2. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I wouldn’t mind one bit if the long range comes close to if not verifying.

    • Terry says:

      Even if it doesn’t go way below average, I would just settle for average, cooler/drier weather. We still have not reached 60 for a low in Harlan yet. The average lows are now deep in the 50s and soon to be 40s. I had one night at 62 about three weeks ago. We are way above average at night and too muggy/rainy for early fall.

      70 for a low so far this morning through 5:00AM and feels like July☹

  3. Schroeder says:

    Precipitation statistics for my county of Taylor: Yesterday 0.46 ” Storm rain 4.17 ” Month rain to date 7.91 ” Year rain to date 52.99 ” All I can tell on the current weather maps ( not weather models ) that at the present a trough is entering the northern plains and high pressure is still hanging tough just off the southeast coast. As Chris indicated this may stall the approaching cold front and bring back the most unwanted rains. Forecast for my county this weekend is for sunny with high temperatures in the low 70’s and lows in mid 50’s. This may be, but it all depends on cloud cover at night. Next week’s weather is yet to be determined.

  4. Mike S says:

    Louisville officially now the wettest September on record
    Lexington very close.

  5. JimCVG says:

    So we should be unpacking the hoodies next week?

    Hoodies, chili and football! WooHoo!

  6. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Upper 70’s to lower 80’s isn’t that impressive for this time of year is it? Not sure what the normal is.

    • Prelude says:

      Average temperatures for the beginning of October low to middle 70’s for highs and by the end October cooling down to the lower 60’s for highs.

  7. Mike S says:

    I have recorded 11.22″ for the month of September. I also recorded measurable rainfall on 10 days of the month. Therefore, my rainfall efficiency comes out to 1.12″ per day of measurable rainfall.

  8. Mike S says:

    CB, that was a great stat in your tweet about Lexington’s 2 double-digit monthly rainfall totals in the same year. I had to find out for myself. 1978 came close with 10″ and 9.97″ (August and December).

    • Mike S says:

      Louisville has now recorded only its 2nd time in its climatological record of at least 2 months of the calendar year with double-digit rainfall totals. The first one was in 1979 (July and September).

  9. Terry says:

    Granted I live over 20 miles away and about 3,000 ft lower in elevation, I have not recorded as much rain as the Harlan mesonet on top if Black Mt but still a lot. The Harlan mesonet has both February and May as double digit rainfall months while I only have February. The mesonet will soon be at 70.00 inches!!! June was a close call at my house though with neatly 9 inches☺

    February is my wettest at 12.24 in!!!

    October is NORMALLY the driest month of the year in KY but I have a feeling based on current data trend that we stay wetter than average.

  10. BubbaG says:

    Wild how Richmond missed most of the heavy rain. Fayette is about double our totals. We seemed to have dodged most of the heavy stuff for most systems lately. Hopefully not karma biting us this winter….. Big snow can do the same thing the rain has 🙂

    BTW, what happened to the cooler air? No sign through next week now.

  11. Jimbo says:

    I was hoping the cool weather would take hold. Unfortunately the forecast out of Huntington WV with mid to upper 80’s again next week at least thru Wednesday. On the bright side, it says dry after tomorrow.

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