Daily Archives: October 8, 2018

Time posted: 12:42 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for an update on our potential impact from Michael and the flip to fall that moves in right after. That flip is going to take us from much warmer than normal to much colder than normal. I mean… Who wants to be normal anyway? 🙂

Michael if now a hurricane and is going to become a major hurricane. I threw out the Opal reference a few days ago and now it’s being thrown around in every weather circle. At the time, I did not think this would get as strong as Opal, but it may very well get there. Here’s the latest from the NHC…

cone graphic

It continues to be interesting to see the official track from the NHC being so far south of all the guidance. The hurricane models continue to shift a little west…

The GFS Ensembles are WELL west of the NHC track…

So are the Canadian Ensembles…

In this scenario, I would put more stock in the Ensembles than the hurricane models (which have already started to go a little west). Why? Because the Ensembles and operational models will likely handle the approaching cold front much better.

Speaking of the operational models. The Canadian Model matches the Ensembles track…

The new version of the GFS is similar…

What does all that mean for us?

  • The front brings a line of showers and storms across the state late Tuesday through Wednesday night.
  • Tropical moisture from Michael will get drawn into this front, upping the ante for, at least, locally heavy rains.
  • Outer rains from what’s left of the tropical system may bring heavy rain to southeastern Kentucky Wednesday night and early Thursday.
  • Chilly air moves in behind this from later Thursday into Friday.

Another rain maker zips into the region this weekend and is what’s left from Hurricane Sergio in the Pacific. That’s right, a tropical system from the Pacific will bring some rain our way. As that zips through, the cold crashes in…

Notice the flakes in parts of the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains? Impressive to see. Needless to say, that’s some very cold air for this time of year.

I will have an update on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, so tune in.

Scattered storms are firing across the region this afternoon and I have you all set to do some tracking…

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:52 am

The Big Change FINALLY Happens This Week

Good Monday, folks. It’s been an incredibly warm and humid start to October, but all that changes this week as our pattern totally flips. The catalyst  for the big change comes as a major fall cold front teams up with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The end result means rain and some serious fall air for our region.

Tropical Storm Michael continues to strengthen and should develop into a hurricane. The models are becoming more intense with this storm as it heads toward the central Gulf Coast.

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

All operational models are still west of the NHC track as of this writing. The track will largely be determined on the speed of our big fall front arriving later Wednesday into early Thursday. Even if the actual center stays to our southeast, it’s likely to throw tropical moisture up and into the front, with direct rains possibly impacting the east.

Here’s how the Canadian sees it…

You can see how the tropical moisture meets the cold front, putting down some heavy rains on that run…

The new version of the GFS is very similar to that…

We will need to be on guard for heavy rains, especially central and eastern Kentucky Wednesday into Thursday. Even if the center of the storm is well to our south, cold fronts love to tape some tropical moisture and squeeze out heavy totals.

Temps behind this come way down and go below normal for the end of the week. It’s gonna feel great!!

Another system moves through on Saturday, bringing showers with it. The air behind this looks downright cold for the middle of October. Check out the DEEP trough showing up behind that…

Several models are hinting at the first flakes of the season for the high ground of the Appalachian Mountains to our east…

That same model run has below freezing temps also showing up…

Nothing like going from one extreme to the other. 🙂

I will hook you up with another update later today and have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Until then, let’s track another day of scattered showers and storms going up…

Enjoy the day and take care.

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