The Big Change FINALLY Happens This Week

Good Monday, folks. It’s been an incredibly warm and humid start to October, but all that changes this week as our pattern totally flips. The catalyst  for the big change comes as a major fall cold front teams up with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The end result means rain and some serious fall air for our region.

Tropical Storm Michael continues to strengthen and should develop into a hurricane. The models are becoming more intense with this storm as it heads toward the central Gulf Coast.

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

All operational models are still west of the NHC track as of this writing. The track will largely be determined on the speed of our big fall front arriving later Wednesday into early Thursday. Even if the actual center stays to our southeast, it’s likely to throw tropical moisture up and into the front, with direct rains possibly impacting the east.

Here’s how the Canadian sees it…

You can see how the tropical moisture meets the cold front, putting down some heavy rains on that run…

The new version of the GFS is very similar to that…

We will need to be on guard for heavy rains, especially central and eastern Kentucky Wednesday into Thursday. Even if the center of the storm is well to our south, cold fronts love to tape some tropical moisture and squeeze out heavy totals.

Temps behind this come way down and go below normal for the end of the week. It’s gonna feel great!!

Another system moves through on Saturday, bringing showers with it. The air behind this looks downright cold for the middle of October. Check out the DEEP trough showing up behind that…

Several models are hinting at the first flakes of the season for the high ground of the Appalachian Mountains to our east…

That same model run has below freezing temps also showing up…

Nothing like going from one extreme to the other. 🙂

I will hook you up with another update later today and have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Until then, let’s track another day of scattered showers and storms going up…

Enjoy the day and take care.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

27 Responses to The Big Change FINALLY Happens This Week

  1. Prelude says:

    Maybe it’s just me I just don’t see what’s left of Hurricane Michael being a concern at all for Kentucky. The much cooler temperatures will be the talk of the town.

    • Mike says:

      Me either. I’m in NKY and the forecasters here are barely talking about TS Michael having any affect on our weather. The cold front will likely help push the storm east and keep it from moving into KY.

  2. Schroeder says:

    I could not find any weather site as great as Chris’s blog and with this potential tropical weather system I decided to join the Chris Bailey weather gang again. Please don’t say anything negative about me personally or what I post as I’m very upset from all the jokes and put downs that I encountered on Saturday’s comment section.

    • Prelude says:

      And there are some if not most that are personally upset that you have countless and I do mean countless times say you’re going to leave the blog. And then a day later you’re right back on here. The playing of the victim card you always use has no validity.

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      And once again you lie for the millionth time Schroeder. No one put you down Saturday, we just pointed out your constant negativity and know it all attitude with all of your posts. Do not play the victim here. You claim you don’t know everything and that you are still “learning”, but yet you come on here and basically disagree with everything Chris says everyday, constantly talk about weather from the 70’s, and act like a know it all.

      • Schroeder says:

        I like talking about the past, when we had real cold spells and lots of snow. I can’t help it if you were born in a time where the weather really sucks.

        • Jeff Kidd says:

          That’s funny that you think you know how old I am. I am old enough to keep my word if I say I’m going to do something and stick with it unlike you.

          • Schroeder says:

            I worked hard all my life. Earned enough to retire and own my home right out and eighty three acres of trees and wild game. Now I couldn’t have done that if I was what you and Prelude called me was a liar. What you two are doing is just wasting your on time and this is not going to get you anywhere in real life. I don’t know if you guys have had jobs are not and I really don’t care. You can continue these attacks on me if you wish, but for now on I will ignore anything you say about me because I don’t care. I’m on here to learn. I have all the time in the world to spend on all my hobbies and one of those hobbies is meteorology.

  3. Schroeder says:

    I will be glad to finally welcome Fall weather at the end of the week, and if we get our first frost, we may have a colorful fall foliage after all. I hope the Tropical Storm Michael does not become a major hurricane for the folks along the Gulf coast.

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      Wait Schroeder, does this mean you finally believe that the winds will die down over Canada and that Chris was correct about the cooler weather coming in at the end of the week? I really hope you do because I live and die every day to read your forecast and if you agree with Chris or not.

      • Schroeder says:

        No, the last time I checked the same weather pattern exist across Canada with the westerlies keeping the Arctic cold from coming south. This will likely change, but no one knows when. The cold front coming at the end of the week is modified quite a bit and more Pacific than Arctic but could bring a good frost. Lets hope so.

  4. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Is this pattern here to stay for more than just a few days? Obviously we won’t be below normal from late week on out but, Thelma Lou hopes that we can stay away from going up into the 80s the rest of the year.

    • Schroeder says:

      It’s too early to tell how potent or effective the coming cold front will be, or how long it will last, or if we have any frost or freezes. All we can do is wait and see this coming weekend and listen to further updates. It wouldn’t surprise me, the way this Autumn has gone so far if it’s a short lived cool down and we return to the current dominate pattern.

      • Bryant says:

        If it does, I’m sure you’ll be here to remind everyone that you predicted it.

        Why bother with Chris Bailey, when we have the best-Schroeder.

  5. Matt says:

    Par for the course, go from 90 to 30 in a day or two..

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      I feel like I should be used to the temperature extremes, but somehow these wild swings never cease to amaze me!

  6. Travis says:

    I follow this blog all the time and I don’t even live in Kentucky. This is by far the best weather blog out there in the lower midwest. I’m actually an hour south of Indy in Monroe county. I’m guessing there are others that do the same since Chris does a good of giving an expanded regional forecast.

  7. Schroeder says:

    Hurricane Michael is heading north into the southeastern Gulf as a category one or two hurricane. In the latest discussion on Hurricane Michael, the Hurricane center is predicting much the same path as previously forecast to the northwest and turn northeast towards the Florida bend and will pick up speed as it makes landfall sometime on Wednesday. They also noted that Hurricane Michael may become a major hurricane before landfall. A very interesting storm to track. I just hope it’s not going to be another natural catastrophe for our country.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *