TORNADO WATCH parts of central and south central Kentucky until 10am.
Here is a look at the counties under the watch and the current warnings…
Follow my twitter updates for the latest. By the way… the latest GFS pushes the 5″+ rains into much of eastern Kentucky as well through Sunday night. Basically from Louisville and Bowling green east to Ashland and south toward Pikeville.
Take care.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Good Saturday everyone and Happy Derby Day! This Kentucky Derby Weekend is being highlighted by the potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding rains. The next few days are going to be very active here on the blog as we will have multiple updates and likely live chats.
Since things are going to be changing quickly through the day and into Sunday. I wanted to give you several tracking tools in this first post of the day.
As of this writing… A TORNADO WATCH is out for parts of western Kentucky until 8am. You can track the warnings from this watch here…
A squall line of thunderstorms is racing across western Kentucky and will head toward the east early Today. It SHOULD eventually outrun the best forcing and weaken out some the farther east it gets. You can track this line here…
Here is the overall severe weather map from the Storm Prediction Center…
Showers and storms will become more scattered this afternoon into the evening hours as we await the main event which arrives from west to east Sunday into Sunday night. Slow moving, strong and severe storms, will be rolling eastward across the region. Combine what we get from storms of today with your Sunday stuff and there will be an increased risk for major flooding. The models
have been advertising this for a while now and they continue to do so. We do find some differences in the GFS and the NAM in terms of placement of the heaviest rains…
The NAM looks suspect to me with such a sharp cutoff to the heaviest rains on the eastern side. I think the GFS is the way to go right now. Either way… both show a TREMENDOUS amount of rain falling across much of the area that would lead to some serious problems.
Here is a look at the Flash Flood Watches that are out as of this writing…
Keep coming back to the blog today and I will have more updates as needed. You can also follow my updates on twitter.. @Kentuckyweather .
Take care.
OH MY G**! I REALLY hope this doesn’t turn out to be a repeat of SEPT 2006! That was like a three hour intense down burst that ended up with almost seven inches of rain. It was a cool storm but it did make me very nervous!
Tornado WARNING for Calloway Co. in southwestern KY until 4:30 am
The same cell producing the Tornado Warning in Calloway Co. has moved on through Trigg and into Christian Co. City of Hopkinsville nearby.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR… SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY… SOUTHEASTERN TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* AT 321 AM CDT… NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOPKINSVILLE… OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF CADIZ… .MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED… HOPKINSVILLE BY 355 AM CDT…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
NOW IS THE TIME TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A BASEMENT… OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A HOME OR BUILDING.
&&
Torrential rain in Georgetown at 6:35. The renegade storm that hit around 5:30 has a few pellets of hail at the onset.
I would start watching for development of storms ahead of an outflow boundry about 30 miles due east of Elizabethtown.
I agree Virgil….this first line going through central KY has really weakened out–if the sun pops back out today we could be looking at a rough afternoon.
Stay safe everybody.
WOOOOW! Take a look at some of the rainfall totals near Memphis already!!!!
Did the rain get here earlier than expected? I had thought it wouldn’t be to LEX until late morning… I had wanted to get me old fridge moved down to the basement but now I’m sure it’s too muddy again going down the hill 🙁
I am ready for this to be over already! The rain that went through must have been worse in spots – we measured over an inch in our rain gauge here in the Gardenside area of Lexington and our basement actually got some water! 🙁 Can anyone please tell me when the next heavy rain is to hit the Lexington area? I see the radars that Chris posted but timing is everything! I have to leave the house alone in a bit to take kids to various places and after already getting water in our basement this morning during the first wave, I am worried about leaving it alone again for any period of time. Could some of you wise weather folks please give me an idea of timing, please…Thank you so very much!!
GO NAM! GO NAM! GO NAM!
Even on the GFS, it is a VERY sharp cutoff to the heaviest rains, it reminds me of one of the snow maps back in the winter..
So from say Pike Co. to just a few counties west could be a huge difference in totals.
I don’t want to hear anyone boohooing about a drought after this weekend.
have been in the hvy rain band since 4:30 am here in bowling Green 1-2 inches has already fallen.
No more drought after tommorow. The next drought outlook should have the moderate droguht completely gone.
Initial burst of heavry rain has turned into a nice, steady light rain. If we continue this type of rain here (mercer county) it will be GREAT. It looks like Jackson & Memphis TN are getting absolutely POUNDED by rain. The NWS down there is talking about 11 inch totals today.
That’s like March 1, 1997 stuff
With all the rain, clouds and cool temps. Will we still be in for tornado weather later?
so far only .24 has fallen at my house
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
158 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2010
.SHORT TERM…/THE REST OF TONIGHT/…UPDATED
JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR A HEADS UP…ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ADDED TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY. STILL UNCERTAINTY WHERE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT…BUT
ENTIRE AREA IS NOW IN THE THREAT AREA…INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
MORE TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
I figured eastern KY would be added. We’re always a magnet for flash flooding. It’s really the only natural disaster I’ve ever experienced living here.
Only 0.20″ from first round of rain in northern Estill Co. I see AHPS forecast for Red River has been changed significantly since I checked it earlier today. Darn! I was supposed to go to a luncheon in Frankfort hosted by Ms. Beshear on Monday. Now looks like I will be stuck at home by high water. Oh well, she will probably be serving Derby leftovers!
Well, we got storms earlier this morning, and a lot of heavy rain. Then, we got a break, of sorts, with just cloudy skies, Now, we are back in rain again, althought it is not heavy, it is a very steady rain. Looking at radars, looks like we are in for some heavy stuff after while. And possibly some storms, too. Worst is yet to come, I fear…..
Wonder when the local forecasters are going to update about the severe weather. I really am a scared person of even the possibility of tornadoes.
I live in mercer county.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2010
…HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT…
.A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT…WITH FRONTAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT…
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY…
RESULTING IN A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
KYZ085>088-107-109-110-112-113-115>120-020300-
/O.EXA.KJKL.FF.A.0001.100502T1600Z-100503T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…
MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…PAINTSVILLE…SALYERSVILLE…
PRESTONSBURG…JACKSON…HINDMAN…HAZARD…MANCHESTER…HYDEN…
WHITESBURG…INEZ…PIKEVILLE
259 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2010
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXPANDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE BELL…BREATHITT…CLAY…FLOYD…
HARLAN…JOHNSON…KNOTT…KNOX…LESLIE…LETCHER…MAGOFFIN…
MARTIN…PERRY…PIKE…AND WHITLEY COUNTIES.
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
* A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT…WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD. FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT…2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCURRING NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONALLY…AS RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAKES ITS WAY TO
LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS…SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND AND KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
From NWS Louisville about an hour ago. Does not sound good, and I’m not even talking about the flooding threat:
A MAJOR WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR US AS A POTENT WAVE RIDES UP A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL CREATE A DOUBLE THREAT…FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE THREAT…
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT…CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS STRONG SYSTEM
DYNAMICS OVERTAKE THE REGION. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK INDICATES A
MODERATE RISK OF SVR OVER THE WESTERN ONE QUARTER OF OUR FA WITH A
SLIGHT RISK TO THE EAST OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF OUR AREA. PRIMARY
CONCERN IS DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WITH AN INCREASINGLY
VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT THAT FCST SOUNDINGS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA
SHOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT. THEY INCLUDE:
MEAN LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCRSG TO 60-70KT
STRONG/DEEP ASCENT/FORCING AS UPR/SFC WAVES MOVE ALONG A QUASISTNRY
FRONT ACRS SRN IL/SE MO AND THEN FRONT MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION AS
WAVES PASS TO THE NORTH.
CONTD MOIST INFLOW AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES.
THIS DEEPLY MOIST/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELL/SUPERCELL TRAINING STORMS AND
LEWPS THAT WILL COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD
STRONG TORNADOES…ESPECIALLY FOR THAT PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TO THE WEST OF I-65 LATE TNGT.
joyce,
dr.greg forbes on the weather channel had a 7 out of 10 chance for tornadoes in southern indiana and illinois.
as a side note: did anyone other than me think that the spc issuing a high risk for severe storms today was just completely out of the blue?
NWS just issued a PDS Watch for AR. Also, tornado risk for KY from in/around and west of I-65 is high for the overnight time period for long-lived and violent tornadoes.
The rains are now starting to orient themselves in a position to where most of Central Kentucky will get in on moderate to heavy rainfall, for the next 3 to 4 hours.
More storms later, and tomorrow.
Chris: This is not the time for the proverbial “long winter’s nap!” We need you!
The 18Z NAM & GFS seem to push tomorrow’s axis a good bit further east.
do you reckon all the weather people are at the derby? no one is giving any updates.
skies are darkening quickly in extreme southern Morgan Co. We’ve had a few sprinkles here off and on all day and the sun actually came out for a couple hours. Chris needs to wake up and give us some updates!! lol
Folks we’re doing alright for now… Still watching the heavy rain threat… the severe threat for today is not that great, still watching it for tomorrow.
finally starting to rain again after about a 4 or 5 hr break
thanks shane for keeping us informed, you are appreciated.
I hope Chris is getting some much needed rest. We’ll need him more when the weather gets more severe tonight and tomorrow.
Thank you Shane for being here while Chris rests up for later.
Shane, appreciate your imput. Wondering where Chris, Wxman, and all the other ‘usual characters’ 😉 are…we have had moderate rain for the past three hours here now. Broke my rain gauge, so I have no idea what we have gotten to this point…gonna have to make a trip to Walmart, I guess….
Everybody keep an eye on the weather, and keep those weather radios on!
Chris, too much sleep is not a good thing, either! 😉
Looks like we’re gonna have a nice sunset here in NW LEX.
I’m with Chris. It’s a great day for napping. Yawn..
spc talking about putting us in moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow,stay tuned, wow arkansas is a battle ground right now.
Just saw the sun set here in Lex. Winds have picked up. Had a $10.00 win bet on Super Saver, but this looks like a potentially spooky night.
very heavy band of rain bout to move into london corbin area
I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like what is going on in AK right now.
35 Tornado Warnings active in AK alone right now 0.o
and already reports of tornadoes on the ground.
It’s raining hard in Hazard now. My satellite keeps getting rained out.
how bout CALVIN BBORAIL 2 YEARS IN A ROW.. AND CONGRATS TO TODD PLETCHER. LUV U ALL.
A very dangerous situation to say the least. I’ve never seen that many warnings out at one time.
This is unusual for Mr Bailey to disappear with a severe weather outbreak on our doorstep.
I was in Trigg County, KY this morning during the Tornado Warning. Did not see any signs of a twister but the rainfall was horrible. Right now, I am trapped in Murfreesboro, TN because I-24 is under water and there was a drowning there. Search and rescue continues all around the Nashville area tonight. By far…the flood waters have been the BIG story with this system.
Hope Chris is getting the “long winter’s nap” he needs. Tomorrow into Monday will be a long one!
SPC still has us under a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow, however that could get upgraded to a Moderate Risk by tomorrow.
High water concerns still continue, especially across south central and south western KY. We have to see if we have storms roll over the same areas tomorrow.
New post up