Good Friday everyone and welcome to Kentucky Derby Weekend. This is a special weekend for those across the commonwealth of Kentucky as the eyes of the world will be on the state for one of the all time great sporting events. The potential is there for the eyes of the weather world to be on this region for totally different reason… severe thunderstorms and flooding.
I feel we have set the stage nicely over the past several days so I am not going to waste a lot of time rehashing the setup. We have a VERY rich moisture supply streaming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. This will collide with a slow moving front that will ease across the Mississippi River later Saturday into Sunday. Rounds of severe thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front. These storms will be slow movers and a lot of areas will see repeat rounds of storms leading to the potential for serious flooding. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is already out for Saturday and Sunday for central and western Kentucky. A GREAT call by the NWS in Louisville to go ahead and alert the public with the watch well in advance.
Here is the area that I am most concerned with for Saturday…
You can see Louisville is right in the middle of the risk area so that does not bode well for Derby goers. The amount of thunderstorm action Saturday is likely to lessen the farther east you go across the area. Scattered stuff will certainly be possible, but the heaviest rains should remain across central and western Kentucky.
I should note the Storm Prediction Center is a bit farther east than I am with the severe threat on Saturday…
The slow moving front will then move across the rest of the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the threat for severe weather and high water farther east…
I want to stress this is has the potential to be a DANGEROUS situation for, especially ,areas along and west of Interstate 75. The blog will be kicked up a notch this weekend so make sure you check back for updates and live chats.
How about some good news! Today looks awesome with sunny skies and highs in the 80s! 
Have a great Friday and take care.
Chris, the way those maps look it sort of reminds me of SEPT 2006! I know you remember that because the next day you post was titled “A Night I Will Never Forget!” I remember it so vividly here in Lexington. I have NEVER seen PROLONGED storms like we had that night. The best way I can describe it was a violent down burst that lasted 2 hours! It was that bad! Almost 7 inches of rain. It was crazy. And it lines up southwest to northeast as the front just sort of “sat there” for a while.
Sounds good for me Chris thank
I’m really glad the biggest totals are to the west. If EKY saw 6-9″ of rain…. I can’t even think of the devastation…
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http://www.ekywx.com
East Kentucky Weather
The first Iris bloom of the season greeted me this morning! Thanks for all you do, Chris!
Everyone have their boats and life vests ready??!! This is looking pretty scary!
Per teleconference w/ NWS Louisville, Belski says we will have on wave come through tomorrow morning and afternoon, and the second wave come through Sunday morning and afternoon. Sunday is the severe threat. Total 2-4 inches of rain east of I-65, more west. Gonna be a messy Derby.
Thanks Chris! I see you’re still friending more and more people on FB!!! Soon you’re have a record! LOL!
My concern is for those going to the Derby tomorrow, especially those braving the infield! So I’m hoping all that severe stuff waits until Sunday!
Chris, thanks for the heads up. Have a question for you. I noticed that there has been no mention of a flash flood watch for eastern KY. We have had heavy rain this week, and I am wondering if you anticipate a flood watch for us as well? And are we talking about how much rain?
Chris do you expect as much rain for eastern Ky when it actually reaches us,just wandered I can look out my window and see the Big Sandy so getting worried for Sunday?Anyone else is others are welcomed also?
Wxman.Mitch,Shane thought for eastern KY Sunday?
I would think Flash Flood Watches, if any, for eastern Kentucky would go up a bit later, because the brunt of the heavier rains is not forecasted to arrive for those folks until late Saturday night and Sunday.
Chris …just a note that my 7 year old daughter loves your live chat…The night of the severe outbreak in MS. she stayed glued to the computer watching all the chat… Then on Tuesday night when it was just raining she wanted to knwo if you were chatting….Thanks for all you do
Any idea what time the rain/storms are going to start tomorrow? 8 a.m soccer game….again. 🙁
I know…..live on far western side of Louisville watch area near Owensboro and I don’t remember them ever talking about this much rain….severe weather too. Clouds and rain though may hamper any severe outbreak tomorrow…have to wait and see….
We still had our games last week, i am hoping this week they will get cancelled….Why do they schedule games before 11 on the weekends, a little bit of sleeping in never hurt anyone
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-237-
302100-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EDT FRI APR 30 2010
…FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND…
A POTENT…BUT SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
OCCASIONALLY RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY…RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. AT PRESENT…THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IS BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME A THREAT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING…WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MINOR FLOODING THREAT ALONG
LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS BY MONDAY…DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP.
IN GENERAL…2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE…IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS OF LARGEST
RAINFALL TOTALS APPEARS TO LINE UP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM MOREHEAD TO MONTICELLO…WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER…UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COULD
RESULT IN CHANGES IN OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE ALIGNMENT OF
HIGHEST TOTALS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES.
$$
GEOGERIAN/RAY
any chance for late season snow?
hey i wonder when the threat for frost will be over with i was going to plant flowers and i dont want to until i think frost isnt going to kill them .
Any chance the rain and clouds will make the severe weather weaker. Like no tornados??
Only if you can make it snow at 70 degrees…
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
If this map comes to fruition we are going to have some high water problems in eastern KY. Also watching for the severe threat, but think the high water threat is the bigger concern.
yes, instabilty is very marginal once again which will likely prevent widespread severe weather.
When I grow up, I wanna be a weatherman. Where else can you get paid for being wrong 75% of the time?
“When I grow up”
That is what I took from that comment…
In other news…a Tornado Warning was just issued for the City of St. Louis and points South and Southeast for a confirmed tornado on the ground. That doesn’t happen every day…
Reds are slated to play the Cardinals tonight…that will be an interesting tale when they finally get started assuming the twister misses downtown STL.
wow look out west into arkansas,ive never in my life seen that many tornado warning outs at one time
Wow! 5 to 8 inches of rain would wash Hazard away. I hope nobody west of here has serious flooding either.
LOL!
The Little Rock NWS radar is still all kinds of lit up…with warnings to boot. If this is what we are in for this weekend, I’ll pass.
NEW Tornado watch just posted for parts of Western Kentucky and parts of Indiana.
Three things in life are certain:
1 – Death
2 – Taxes
3 – Chris is working on a blog post…that will mention that Tornado Watch for parts of Western Kentucky. 🙂
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