Good Thursday everyone. We are finally getting back to some warm weather across our part of the world over the next few days as we take on a summer feel by Friday. With the good comes the bad and the bad is the potential for rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms this weekend. A lot of the models continue to hint at what we have been talking about all week… the potential for strong storms and a major rainfall event for some.
Let’s start with the good and that is the weather today into Friday. Sunny skies will boost temps into the 70s today and then into the 80s on Friday ahead of a slow moving front across the plains states. That front will spawn severe weather to our west on Friday before that threat for severe weather rolls in here for Saturday and Sunday. The front really does slow down with a few ripples of low pressure riding northward along it. Here is the setup..
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be along and east of this front. The potential for several inches of rain from Saturday through Monday morning is an increasing prospect. The GFS continues to show some incredible totals during this times…
That is a widespread 2″-4″ rain showing up across the eastern half of the state with totals around 9″ for the western parts. If that happens… flooding will be a big player before the weekend is out.
The GFS rain maps look an awful lot like the one we put out here on the blog a few days ago…
This is something we will continue to watch out for and update as often as need be as we inch closer to the weekend. Have a great day and take care.
I think the consensus is that the GFS is suffering from some convective feedback. Having said that…with all the models showing heavy rain here, you can bet Flood Watches will be going up soon. 3-7 inches of rainfall depending on where you are in KY is enough to be a BIG problem here. Bad timing for the Derby as Churchill Downs is a known flood-prone area.
Here’s hoping the heaviest rain stays in west Ky. Those amounts of rain would be much more devastating here in East Ky. as we all seen last May..
It was colder this morning at my house than yesterday
This weekend rain is messing up my mowing schedule. The grass is out of control now and I only have time on weekends to mow. 🙁 And what a mess for Derby day. Bet on the “mudder.”
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT THU APR 29 2010
…SEVERAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS AND RESULTANT
FLOODING PROBLEMS…
.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
MORE POTENT FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-300330-
/O.NEW.KLMK.FF.A.0001.100501T1200Z-100503T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…
JASPER…MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…
JEFFERSONVILLE…HAWESVILLE…HARDINSBURG…BRANDENBURG…
BEAVER DAM…LEITCHFIELD…ELIZABETHTOWN…FORT KNOX…
MOUNT WASHINGTON…SHEPHERDSVILLE…LOUISVILLE…LA GRANGE…
BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…
CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…
LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…
LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND…MORGANTOWN…
BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…
LIBERTY…STANFORD…RUSSELLVILLE…BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…
SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…
JAMESTOWN…BURKESVILLE…ALBANY
329 PM EDT THU APR 29 2010 /229 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010/
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY…
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
* A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING…BUT WILL DECLINE IN COVERAGE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS FIRST EPISODE COULD PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. A SECOND MORE POTENT FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
EVEN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ANOTHER 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND EPISODE…WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF SUNDAY RANGING FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 OR MORE INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND COULD
CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS…AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR THE REGION.
WITH THE EXTREME LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS…AND LOCALLY
HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES IN PLACES…FLASH FLOODING IS
VERY LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. STAY ABREAST OF THE
SITUATION BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.
I have drawn a map of the areas I think should be most concerned as far as flooding goes. It’s on my blog at http://www.ekywx.com
I know we are still in need of rain but this is not welcome this weekend. Terrible for the Derby.
i’m telling you, the NWS might really be underestimating this whole situation. I say this because the NWS in Memphis is calling for up to 10-12″ of rain down there, and then the NWS in paducah, and louisville are calling for 2-5″ totals.
Looks like I am going to have to take the boat out of the yard sale,,,,,I might need it this weekend.
Enjoyed today, and gonna enjoy tomorrow, because it sounds like its going to be a very soggy Derby Day. Not looking forward to severe weather, though….