Good Thursday everyone. Temps finally went above the freezing mark across the entire region on Wednesday putting an end to one heck of a prolonged cold and snowy spell across our part of the world. Now we get a chance to hit 40 for the first time this year.

Sunny skies will be with us today allowing temps to soar toward the 40-45 degree range. This will be a good day to wash a little salt and crud off the cars.

A weak front will move toward us on Friday with an increase in clouds and the chance for a late day shower. Highs will run in the upper 30s and low 40s. That same forecast will hold true for your Saturday as well as that weak front kinda washes out across the area.

Our focus will then turn to a developing storm across the Gulf of Mexico. This will run toward the Carolinas and will throw moisture back our way leading to rains developing early Sunday. There just isn’t much cold air for this system to work with. Still… it could be just cold enough for some wet snow… especially in the highest elevations. Here is what the GFS looks like…

Sunday Morning


Sunday Afternoon


That is a perfect track… we are just lacking a cold high pressure to the north. Oh well… we have had plenty of snow already this winter and we have plenty more ahead of us!

As a matter of fact… some of the models are not very impressed with this “break” from winter and are saying winter comes back before next week is over. The GFS certainly does not look warm at all next week…

Wednesday


There is something to be said about a pattern and how it resists change. Next week will be fun to watch as the overall pattern is going to try to trump the “warmup”. This warmup was going to be rather brief anyway and the medium range models are already bringing winter back into the eastern US by NEXT weekend. The European Model is really leading the charge on that.

Speaking of a warmup… the folks at the HPC made a statement that is more than crazy. In a recent extended forecast discussion, this was their headline…

MAJOR PTRN CHNG UNDERWAY OVR NOAM IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAPPENED THE WINTER OF 1989-90 OVER NOAM

I cannot begin to express how silly that statement is. For those of you who cannot remember… December 1989 was BRUTAL for the eastern half of the country and is our coldest December ever around here. Temps were well below zero on many occasions. Once into January… we flipped a switch and saw record warm temps that carried us through the rest of the winter and it basically never snowed again after the first of the year. It was truly an historic pattern flip!

Folks… there is NOTHING even remotely going on in the atmosphere that resembles that winter. That’s our tax dollars hard at work.   

Okay… I am off my soapbox!

Have a great day and take care.