Good afternoon everyone. My time is rather limited so let’s get straight to it. My thoughts on the next few days remain unchanged as this is pretty much a straight forward forecast. We get out arctic low and front to sweep through the region on Thursday leading to a 1″-4″ snowfall for much of the state. Then we get in on a very nice northwesterly wind flow that will bring snow showers and squalls that will add an additional 1″-4″ through Friday. This is not a classic winter storm by any means. But the combo of the 48 hour period of snows, gusty winds that will create blowing and drifting and an arctic blast will make this seem like a winter storm.
Here is the warning/advisory map…
My first call for snowfall is below…
Keep in mind that this is for the ENTIRE event that runs through Saturday morning! I will update those numbers a couple more times before giving you guys the last call. I will have more updates later this evening so check back.
Take care.
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Chris why doesnt Jackson have us in east Ky under a winter storm warning I dont understand????????
Alright I’m right on the 2-4 and 3-6 line in Pulaski CO. I’d take it
Thanks for the update, Chris. Lookinf forward to you next thoughts on all of this. Take care.
I’ll take the 3-6″ for my area and run with it too. thanks Chris for the update!!
Thanks Chris!
I posted this on your question on the previous entry before I realized a new post was up-
Crystal, here is the answer to that one I think, from the Jackson discussion earlier:
“ALTHOUGH EVENT
TOTALS OF ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES COULD FALL…WITH LOCALLY MORE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOST TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS THROUGH THE ADVISORY
PERIOD…ATTM…WE DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL TO EXCEED 4 INCHES IN ANY
12 HOUR PERIOD WITH ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE”
That’s the key- criteria for a warning is 4″ or more in 12 hours, or 6″ or more in 24 hours. So they don’t think the timing and totals will meet criteria- there might be more than 4 or 6 in total, but not in the time period of 12 or 24 hours.
I’m willing to bet the nature of the storm with the winds will be fairly disappointing for anyone in Lexington looking for a good accumulation of snow. We’ll probably hit the predicted totals, but looking out the window you won’t see it that way.
My thoughts exactly, Tim! HAHA!
Thanks JAVA JOE I appreciate it.
LOL. Even when we do get an event it is not a true winter storm for snow;)
“This is not a classic winter storm by any means”. Kind of sucks some of the thrill out of it;)
What will letcher co total be.
3-6 -or 6-8.
I do not know, but CB’s point that “This is not a classic winter storm by any means” kind of deflates the perception of the event. Perhaps CB should have left that out;)
Even when we get a winter storm warning, it is not really a winter storm. Irony!
Thanks Chris for the update!
Chris has Letcher in the 6-8 range
CB’s point that “This is not a classic winter storm by any means” kind of deflates perception of the event. Perhaps CB should have left that out;)
I know what he meant, but still funny:)
There you go:)
CB’s point that “This is not a classic winter storm by any means” kind of deflates perception of the event. Perhaps CB should have left that out;)
I know what he meant, but still funny:)
Thanks Chris for the update! Looks like us in Anderson county are in the 3-6 inch area…I’ll take it!
here is a breakdown for east ky. from jim C. at wmyt… which lines up pretty well with chris’s map…
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory 6 am Thursday to 3 pm Friday
Laurel
McCreary
Pulaski
Rockcastle
Wayne
Whitley
The general thinking here is that we’ll see 2″-4″ in this advisory section.
Winter Weather Advisory 6 am Thursday to 7 pm Friday.
Clay
Jackson
Knox
Lee
Owsley
It looks like these locations will see anywhere from 3″-6″ by the time this system wraps up.
Winter Weather Advisory 9 am Thursday to 5 am Saturday
Bell
Breathitt
Floyd
Harlan
Johnson
Knott
Leslie
Letcher
Magoffin
Martin
Morgan
Perry
Pike
Wolfe
This is the longest active advisory we have in place. This is also the area that stands the best chance to see snowfall through the weekend. Total accumulations here will be around 4″-6″ and 6″-10″ in the highest elevations.
If we get six inches here in Bourbon County, it will be our first snow that deep since we installed two new gates. We got to thinking that anything over four inches may prevent us from opening the gates tomorrow. (unless we shovel, which we don’t want to do) So this will be interesting. Time to think about a different style of gate! 🙂
I’m not looking forward to the wind or the bitter cold, but this is better than an ice storm. I refuse to complain.
I’ll take the 2-4 since I already have some on the ground,to go with it.Not complaining one bit since I have to move grandson into his dorm at UK on sunday!
I’m sitting here with no city water just north of Hazard. I just hope and pray the electricity doesn’t go off also. From what you guys are saying, this won’t be a heavy wet snow like the last one. So maybe we can enjoy this one! I just wish it would warm up out there so they can fix our water problems. Tomorrow is going to be very pretty! Get the hot chocolate ready!
two things i want to mention the first one being that for all of the areas of ky in the snowdome enjoy this because it could be the big snow by our standards for this winter, as gulf storms only hammer w n and e ky when it comes to snow. and the other thing i find funny is how everyone detests being in the advsiory area vs warning area! i am the same way lol stuff the adv. i want a warning it just sounds better.
Agreed. Probably one of the reasons CB kind of deflated the event by saying “this is not a classic winter storm by any means”.
This storm will be nothing compared to next week’s storm.. It’s going to be a MONSTER.. Let’s just hope its either RAIN or SNOW!! I don’t want a repeat of Jan 2009!! 😉
You’re not too far from me, J-A…let’s hope this will be a DECENT one for us here in the Nelson/Anderson area…
*Did you comment on Belski’s last evening?! 😉
Bernie, got any links of what storm you are looking at for next week?
Yo, Bern!;)
Where shall I go to ‘see’ this MONSTER?? (Guide me per Chris’ guide there to the right…also…what GFS/NAM models do you guys usually SEE this stuff at??! I always look @ the “fine” 06 then 850mlb precip??! Am I doing it wrong??! LOL..(I know nuthin’ bout no models…willing to learn, tho!;))
This came down from the Kentucky EOC and National Guard
The EOC will be activated beginning at 1600 today, Wednesday 6 JAN 2010. A
decision on HAM radio support will be made a little later today. In the
absence of radio coverage please provide any significant situation reports by
email to eocham@ky.ngb.army.mil.
WA4CMO
Bob Stephens (COL Ret.)
Communications Supervisor
KY Dept of Military Affairs
Frankfort, KY 40601
502-607-1617 Office
502-607-1146 FAX
502-545-8282 Cell
Here in SW KY radar already showing southern edge of storm breaking up as it approaches east.
Here is a current sit. rep. for Murray, KY area. Clear skies today high of 32, low ceiling clouds purple to blue tinge moving in from west to east. Temperature on the down swing to 30 now. Best guess at this point 1-3 inches through tomorrow night for my area. Snow is being reported about 3 1/2 hours west of here, but southern edge of storm does appear to be breaking up some as it approaches, guess I’ll have to wait and see if any bands setup overnight into morning hours and the actual snow ratios.
Chris, your first call map, looks just like the GFS map…give us something more insightful than that,please
LMAO…
And this is a Bengals fan CB… How about that…!
GO BIG BLUE…
Actually it doesn’t as the GFS gives no one 6″. Would u like for me to make somthing up for you? 😉
Next week storm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_240m.gif
Sorry for the delay, dinner time! 😉
LOL! Chris’s map is ALOT better then the GFS or NAM maps!! 😀
Berea would be in the 12″+ range if you want me to make one! 😀
Here is Southern Pike County, we have a good base of somewhere between 4 and 5 inches of snow on the ground. With this additional snow, we should have over a foot on the ground, which is the most we have had since around 1998.
I understand, have three boys myself. 🙂 Thanks for the link, boy if that holds up and temps stay down for the storm!
Well, I will be happy to see whatever the good Lord decides to send us. My concern is for for the blowing and drifting snow, and the sub zero temps.
Of course, Tommy, I am like you….I want the warning, as that means its a comin’! But this IS going to be a dangerous storm, and it concerns me for everyone, whether we get 6 inches, or 3. Either way, it’s gonna be brutal.
Bernie, where is this monster storm you are talking about? I’d like to see it on the models…
Chris, your best guess at what Murray, KY will see? I do not envy your job, cause I am lost trying to get a handle on this mess.
LOL…:D
KP, I agre with you. I would rather have this than ice, any day….at least you can go on snow, if you take your time and think about what you are doing. But in ice, Nobody goes ANYWHERE! I will tkae the cold temps.
Haha Uncle Bernie! Go ahead make us one….AND MAKE IT COME TRUE TOO!
I mentioned on Chris’ last post…most say this won’t make it into the Western KY/I-65 corridor until around “daybreak”(5-6am or bit later), however, it’s filled in on the radar returns quite nicely over the last hour or two, making me think my original predic was halfway correct…thinking the snow will begin to filter in to our NW/NC counties by around 2am…??! (Given that St. Louie is only about 5 hrs. away anyway, slower w/ the front….?!)
You must be from Ohio to make a remark like that.
A.P. report !!!
Another network station coming to Lexington ky. The new ABC affiliated station is on the way. the call letters of WMZR is to hit the air in early spring. One of Lexingtons Famed Meteorologist Chris Bailey is to return to Lexington as CHIEF METEOROLOGIST.
……………
SMACK ! SMACK ! SMACK !…oops sorry I was dreaming outloud…LOL..and how about those call letters WMZR..get it…SNOW (MIZER)…LOL…OH WELL IT WAS A GOOD THOUGHT ANYWAYS…LOL..LOL…or should I say a good dream…:)
on a side note: isnt about time for the tulips and crocus to start coming up!!…WHAT???…LOL…
I agree 110% !!
I have 3 boys as well 12 9 and 3
OH BOY, this is gonna be a long night,if anyone decides to go chat over at freaksters let me know. I guess I’ll get a pot of coffee rollin…lol..
Hope everyone gets a good snowfall from this one! I think Chris’ totals look spot on.
omw there
here is my forecast from NWS..
Thursday…A chance of snow in the morning…then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs around 30. South winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Thursday Night…Cold. Occasional snow showers in the evening… Then scattered snow showers. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Lows in the mid teens. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Friday…Cloudy with scattered snow showers. Cold. Highs in the lower 20s. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent
not to bad if I can get all that accum. at one time on the ground…lol..
Pulling an all-nighter here, so I’ll be there.
ok i’ll be over in about 30 or so if you all are there, gonna eat supper..
i heard TVQ was cutting payroll which doesn’t sound good
Predicting 2-4″+ here in Nelson Co…talked to my Aunt (“2nd. Mama”..lol) in OK this morning…THEY are probably going to get an ICE STORM this evening/overnight, on top of all the snow they got around Christmas..my aunt said they are STILL grading the snow off their roads, told us to “be careful-they’re saying “Blizzard Conditons” for the Ky. area come tomorrow….??! Usually, whatever THEY get out there from a NW storm today, WE get either the next day or night??!
Snow…Blizzard…even ICE…I am READY!!!(Ok..scratch the ICE deal…LOL!)
sweep it all up in one pile and you may get that much 😉
Can I chat, too, even tho I’m over here in Nelson Co.??! LOL!;)
(Dumb question…lol)
If you’ll have me…that is…??!;)
Interesting find over on the JKL website. Click on Expected Snowfall link on the top of the main page. They have a map with expected accumulations around the area. London/Corbin expected to pick up 4-5 inches. Somerset..3-4″ Everybody else is a general 3-5.” These are total snow accumulations from 7 Am thurs to 7 am friday. Something to get excited about..they have raised the totals from earlier today.
LOL
Next week storm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_240m.gif
For anyone wanting a list of school closings you can look them up here
http://www.kentucky.com/latest_news/story/1043084.html
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=1670024770&title=Breaking Weather News
check out this video!
Bands of stuff in eastern Kansas look like they swoop south of STL into western, the southern KY? I believe we are in NOWCASTmode.
I remember back in ’84 or ’85 we had a storm like this where we got a decent amount of snow, but the wind and drifting was the big issue. I was working on one of the local horse farms and the whole crew was stuck on the farm for over 3 days as the drifting made the road to the farm impassable. When they finally got it plowed, there was a wall of snow on either side of the road at least 6 or 7 feet tall and only one lane opened. I got a picture taken of my truck in the road with walls of snow on either side, towering over it. Of course I was younger and single back then and sleeping on the floor at the manager’s house and playing cards all night with all the other stranded workers was fun.
if there not virga on that leading edge it be snopwing in SEKY by 8 in morning or earlier.
id say that leading edge not reaching ground, check on some weather spotter/station out there guys and see.
Leading edge is just saturating atmosphere, not getting to gorund yet. All that stuff directly west of me is not hitting ground as of 6:00 CST.
Here’s my final call:
I expect 4″ statewide, except the places that get more, they will have more… And the places where it doesn’t snow as much, they will have less….
Of course, this is subject to change…
…
Western Ky has humidity levels only in the 50’s to 70%. Central KY has had snow flurries and showers all day and that is reflected in humidity levels in the upper 70’s and 80’s. So while verga may be an issue to our west, that might not be an issue here.
whatever Tim you need to know how to tell time 😉
Has anyone check out the update on Jackson weather service its sounds like they maybe are going with a WSW for somewhere but I may be reading it wrong.
How exactly could this forecast change?
Unless you expect there’s a chance that the areas that could see more actually get less, and the areas that could see less actually get more?
Looking at the radar returns, this is an impressive storm. If this stays together, I would say more than the 3-6 for central ky. I wouldnt be suprised to see places with 10+? Am I seeing things or what?
Never happen, Bernie, but it makes good eye candy!
Thanks for the info! I wish they would go ahead and call it, my son wants to go visit with Granny if there is no school. From the looks of the radar, it would be a lot easier to go tonight rather than in the morning.
ok guys i’m getting duals put on my truck tomorrow i hope and i don’t know where to get dual in and dual out for a muffler or single in and dual out on muffler
get your tail over here just 2 of us here Tim was tied up and beaten by his children or his wife HEHE
Current Humidity 60%.
You will be asleep anyway. Prob miss the whole thing…
Lexington Humidity: 88%…
It will not take very long to see snow in the air once it hits the radar…
…
CB kind of took some of the glamour out of the event, “This is no a classic storm by any means”. Even when we get a winter storm warning is is not? I think I know what Chris meant, but perhaps he should have left that out 😉
Does anyone know how much snow they are getting in the Saint Louis Area.That could be a good indication of how much central KY will get. I have seen that in the past with EAST TO WEST snow storms.
St. Louis has Light Snow and 25 right now…
Here is there current forecast for tonight:
—–> Occasional snow. Steady temperature around 23. East wind at 10 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
We will have to compare snow amount the two areas when storm has moved through our region.
I had a dual in/out Flowmaster, and I liked it. Was on an S10 w/V8, so space was a consideration. I think the single in/dual outs are a little cheaper, and there’s probably greater variety.
This has the potential to be more of a storm than we have had around central KY in quite some time.
24 hours from now will be very interesting.
The latest NAM looks to have shifted North with the heavy precipitation. I hope I am seeing it wrong!
It will be the cold and wind will make it seem like the good old days when we used to have big bon fires and sleigh ride on car hoods. Boy were those the days
you are seeing it wrong, in fact, it increased the moisture to the south, so maybe the Winter storm warning should be extended south…
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
912 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010
.SHORT TERM…/THE REST OF TONIGHT/…UPDATED
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
ONSET OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AROUND 15Z… BUT THIS IS
JUST ONE MODEL RUN AND THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BANDS SO WILL LEAVE ADVISORIES AS PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED. TEMPS ON
TRACK FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN SPITE OF THE APPROACHING SNOW. FCST
ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE A FEW WORDING UPDATES TO THE WRN ZONES.
I cant help but laugh when I think about when “next weeks snowstorm” shifts too far west and we get cold rain…especially after its been fridgid for 2 weeks!!!lol GFS showin it 252hrs away…you think this one will be a dissappointment….WOW just wait…
I am quilty of lurking on the accuweather forums,and was looking at a map someone had posted, they were obviously not accurate. Thanks
Linda where have you been or am I the one thats been gone lol?
No problem man, just ignore accuwx forums, nothing but trouble… Look at the 18z 60hr precip and the new 00z, it makes it clear precip increased farther south.
You have a 50/50 shot but look at trend and the winter in other parts of the world it is the worst in many years ours could end up the same way. Winter is just getting started for us some of our worst snows are in February.
Thats amazing i am in Pikeville just what 20 minutes and we might have 2,I know what you mean we were in Whiteburg and dorton monday they had so much and got to Pikeville hardly nothing its amazing.
Does it matter? I think everyone knows there is snow coming.
CB kind of deflated the glamor out of the event with the line, “This is no classic winter storm by any means”. I think I know what he meant, but perhaps he should have left that sentence out;)
Man, even when we get a winter storm, it is not really a “winter storm” in a classic sense. Funny 🙂
Gosh,
CB kind of deflated the glamor out of the event with the line, “This is no classic winter storm by any means”. I think I know what he meant, but perhaps he should have left that sentence out;)
Man, even when we get a winter storm, it is not really a “winter storm” in a classic sense. Funny 🙂
CB kind of deflated the glamor out of the event with the line, “This is no classic winter storm by any means”. I think I know what he meant, but perhaps he should have left that sentence out;)
Man, even when we get a winter storm, it is not really a “winter storm” in a classic sense. Funny 🙂
yeah 280 vs 400 but i think they were gonna use 2 single flowmaster 40s and not use the dual inlet flowmasters thanks for the reply
I don’t want to get ahead of myself since we’re not even done with this storm coming up, but does anyone know when this arctic air modifies early/mid next week, does it look as if we stay normal from there on out or is there a chance at more cold air diving south?
Well Coffee we will just take what we can get and I am like you and Tommy I want it to say warning lol.I wont be saying that tommorow because in my husbands work we are all over the place tommorow I believe WV Chris what do i have to expect in Wv your thoughts when you have time would be appreciated
Chris, this looks to be a STRONG artic low. Looking at the current surface map I also notice another low hanging out just behind it to the west in Texas. It seems this low is kicking up a little bit of moisture from the gulf. Is it possible these two combine, meeting right on top of us? After they combine if that is possible that could possibly lead to an onslought of energy right over us! Is it also possible they (the low pressure centers) get hung up in the app. mountains and this thing slows way down and produces more than it was suppose too. I dont know just some thoughts but I think one of these two scenerios could play out.
They have been changing totals practically all day and now they seem to be “stuck”..well I already have about 4 inches or so on the ground, so i guess another 3-6 would be alright..Morehead area…I personally think if this stays together, the totals could be a lot more impressive…
Why do the NAM and WRF show only about 1″ around Lexington?
a friend of mine n L’ville said his car has a layer of ice on it, like freezing rain, that wasn’t supposed to happen was it?…
Haven’t done that in years and if my kids tried it I would probably beat their, Well you know. LOL
Rolo or anyone.What do you want the humidity to be to get a good snow to the ground?
Well, you can look at models and maps and such. I will look out the window, and then I will know when it is snowing. I say that becaue this morning, we got nearly an inch, and it snowed most of the morning, but when you looked at the radar, there was nothing there….guess it is because it is so dry. Looking at radar on Chris’site, looks like West KY is about to start getting something. Expect htat waht I see now is not hitting the ground.
Just my thoughts, but I think the southern edge of this precip shield is pretty far north… southern 1/3rd of kentucky might not be much over an inch in my opinion.. Hope this builds in more from the south!! On the other hand, lexington and louisville look to have some nice bands coming around daybreak
haha, Coffeelady< you are SO right, I look out my windows, that's when I know they got it right "maybe"...Chris is usually pretty dead on...but the models seem to be way out there..new to the weather sites..but love to follow them now.
Gosh,
CB kind of deflated the glamor out of the event with the line, “This is no classic winter storm by any means”. I think I know what he meant, but perhaps he should have left that sentence out;)
Man, even when we get a winter storm, it is not really a “winter storm” in a classic sense. Funny 🙂
Hi Crystal!! No I been here everyday, just not saying much! I’m always listening though! How are you doing?
I will have to call my sis in Indy to see what she is suppose to get. The weirdest thing today when i was driving down the road near my home black birds covered the trees and even lined up sitting on the train tracks I felt like I was in a Bird movie all big huge blackbirds.Alright Debbie what does that mean anything for weather or are they just hungry?
Well it was a rough 2009 for our families lost my mom in may and dad in law right before christmas and 2 pets,but I have decided 2010 has to be better and its going to be I am trying to think postive.How have you been?
My weather bug currently has 100% humidity at three different sites in and around Somerset at 10:33 PM EST
Mine has 94% for Georgetown, what exactly does this mean?
Air is moist, very little virga…
IMO
IF that is the case, I would up my guesses from 4″ to around 6″ in and around lex.. 5-7.
They were waiting for the train at the bus station.. headin south away from the snow! lol Just making a funny Crystal! love ya! 🙂
In my yard, it just means they’re hungry! lol. They roost in some trees near our house and they love to steal any left over dog food if you give them the chance. I’m always trying to scare them away.
dry slot coming to cut down on totals a bit. always something with the snowdome.
In the last few frames of the national radar, you can see the gulf moisture beginning to get pulled north into the system.
because thats probably what we will get…i love snow but living through these things in lexington you learn to never get your hopes higher than your ankles
figures! Maybe we can still squeeze an inch or two out of it. lol
Is this a good thing or bad. Sorry but I am weather illiterate unless I look outside. Does this mean the snow is still coming?
Some of us are over at freaksters if anyone is interested!
What’s the website for freaksters?
http://www.freaksters.com
http://www.freaksters.com
Yes, its a VERY good thing. Gulf moisture provides storms like this with the energy they need to “overachieve”. (Not saying this one will though)
I’m doing okay,had a rough year with my hubby sick,but he is better now.We are just trying to stay warm and healthy.I thought of you when he was at VA hospital.His nurse was a traveling nurse like you.Glad you are back home now.
Sorry to hear about your mom.I lost mine a few years ago so I know how hard it is.