Good Tuesday to one and all and thanks for checking out the blog. A lot of areas are in the process of picking up more snow right now… especially in the north and east. As of this writing… anywhere from a coating to upwards of 3″ has fallen across the region. Where I live happens to be one of the areas close to the 3. 
For areas getting in on the snows… roads have been snow covered creating a travel mess.Snow showers and flurries will continue out there today with the greatest concentration being in the east. These will continue into the overnight with an additional inch or so possible in some areas. Your radar shows the way…
Highs today will be back into the low and mid 20s. Gusty winds will make it feel a lot colder than that.
Wednesday will still see a few flurries around in the morning as we will be between systems. The one rolling in for Thursday into Friday will be a potent arctic wave that continues to show up better and better on the models as we get closer. As a matter of fact… there is going to be a lot of energy pushing through here leading to a wild period of weather. An arctic wave of low pressure will roll through here Thursday with a wall of snow moving in to go along with very gusty winds and arctic air pouring in. The European Model is cranking this system the most…
Thursday Evening
The snows coming in Thursday will hit fast and furious from west to east. This will be a widespread moderate to locally heavy snowfall and it will be powdery meaning we should see a lot of blowing snow. Once the arctic low goes by to our east… our northwesterly wind flow will set up and it is likely to be a VERY good one that brings serious snow showers and squalls from Thursday Night through Saturday. It is during this time that our snow ratios could get totally out of control and be on the order of 40 to 1 or greater.
The GFS is spitting out some very good snow totals for the whole region…
The above map doesn’t take the high snow ratios into account so the potential is there for some higher umbers. Given the combo of snow, wind and arctic cold… travel Thursday into Friday may not be such a good idea. This is something the blog will be updating frequently over the next few days so keep checking back with us.
I will have more updates later today so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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Thanks for the update Chris. I’ll definitely be here a lot in the next few days.
well i think we in Knox Countyare gonna fall short of meeting our inch + of snow by the end of today seeing as we got a late start
Thanks CB. Sounds good! Here’s what Lou. NWS is saying:FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF THIS WINTER SEASON AND BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK…
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS ARE COMING IN TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOWS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
WEATHER DATA…SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF LATER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TRENDS…A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY. Looking forward to see a WSW. I hope were in the locally higher amount catagory.
They already have a WSW for western Ky.
Madison county called off school. My porch light is out so I can’t see too much outside. I’ll have to go get the flashlight.
Issued by The National Weather Service
Louisville, KY
5:04 am EST, Tue., Jan. 5, 2010
… FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF THIS WINTER SEASON AND BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK…
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS ARE COMING IN TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST WEATHER DATA… SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF LATER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TRENDS… A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH AN ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE… SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL ACCUMULATE AREA ROADWAYS AND MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA VERY HAZARDOUS. IN ADDITION… STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DECREASED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND WILL ALSO DRIVE WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY… A RE- ENFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES… SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE COMMONPLACE AND SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS… THIS COLD SHOT OF AIR WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOW IS THE TIME TO START MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING SNOW AND COLD. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE TAKEN STEPS TO PROPERLY WINTERIZE YOUR CAR. AREA ROADWAYS ARE LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BE SURE TO GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF SPACE OUT ON THE ROADWAY AND ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE TO STOP. ALSO MAKE SURE YOU GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
IN YOUR HOME… TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO WINTERIZE ANY EXPOSED WATER PIPES TO KEEP THEM FROM FREEZING. BE SURE USE CAUTION WITH SPACE HEATERS IN YOUR HOME AND KEEP THEM AT LEAST 3 FEET AWAY FROM FLAMMABLE OBJECTS SUCH AS CURTAINS AND FURNITURE. NEVER USE A GAS STOVE OR CHARCOAL GRILL TO HEAT YOUR HOME. THESE DEVICES RELEASE CARBON MONOXIDE WHICH IS ODORLESS AND CAN KILL.
BE SURE TO CHECK ON THE WELL BEING OF THOSE THAT MAY SUFFER MORE FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD… ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY AND YOUNG CHILDREN. IF YOU HAVE TO WORK OUTSIDE… BE SURE TO DRES
about 3/4 to 1/2” here and it really is an extremeley powdery snow. it really is fun to think and contrast this snow to the snow we saw the other night that was falling at 33-34 and was the size of cotton balls.
thought this would bring a smile to some people’s faces
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
We need to find out how to link this blog to the local road departments, I have travelled 80 miles this morning and never saw any salt on the roads anywhere. Not surprised that Scott County is closed today, it is bad out there.
SALT TRUCKS ONLY make it worse, the fact is the roads are NOT BAD if u know how to drive.
I lock my breaks several times with no problem.
the only problem was where there was somemelting and refreezing going on.
the state IMO asre doing right thing by leaving the roads along, its a DRY SNOW and the roads are not BAD SLICK.
along,alone hell u get the drift.
no use wasting salt at 14 degrees on a dry snow, once raffic picks up and daylight comes the main roads will be wet, that when u lay some stuff on road to keep ice spots from forming.
heck i drove like it was sunny and 55 at times and hit the breaks to check it out and the roads 90 percent of time are fine if u have any driving ability. now if ur like my mom who cant see and rides the break now u might not need to droive.
being afraid is 95 percent of the battle.
they killed the roads with salt on saturday here there was more salt than snow by the time they got finished but i haven’t been out to see what they look like now as far as salt goes
If BubbaG is out of town and we get significant snow at the epicenter of the snowdome it won’t take me long to do the math.
What is the weather looking like for next week?
he had plastic bags wrapped his shoes
he was covered with the evening news and pair of old wool socks on his hands,
the bank sign was flashing 5 below it was freezing rain and spittin snow, he was curled up behind some garbage cans
i was afraid that he was dead and i gave him a gentle shake and when open up his eyes i said old man are u ok,,,,,,,
I JUST CLIMB OUT OF A COTTON WOOD TREE i was running from sum honey beees,
drip dryin in the summer breeze,
man I wish u just left me alone because I was ALMOST HOME!! just a few bars from CRAIG MORGAN GREAT COUNTRY SONG!! if u never heard it go to youtube.
but u must be dead if u havnt though.
yep I got half of winter RENT to keep him away.lolllllllll
all my cards on on the table with no avce left in the hole,
lord IM MUCH TO YOUNG TO FEEL THIS DAME OLD!!
WOOOOOOOOO!! hide the WHISKEY BOYS ole ROLO might get loose before the days over!!!
Interestingly, NAM keeps the highest totals in western KY. GFS has a strip of higher amounts along I-64. Either way several inches are possible in the LEX area. Some areas will have deep snow drifts. Not to mention the horrible wind chill temp. This weather on Thursday and Friday is something to take seriously as it will be dangerous.
Goodmorning everyone. Thanks for the update Chris! I was gonna ask if the snow total maps were factoring in the snow ratios! 🙂
Wes.. GFS says we warm up next week, but it probably is wrong with a snowpack.
Rolo.. You need to lay off the coffee this morning or try decaffeinated! lol 😉
Madison County – Berea
Flurries with a new dusting
15.6°
Any precipitation? I know that the 15th or 16th has been mentioned for more snow…any for next week?
Thanks….
We’ve got around a 1/2 inch to an inch up here. No school in Boone county. It’s my son’s first snow day! As for Thurs/Fri…bring it on. 🙂
Wes.. It’ll change a million times before the 13th, but here is the 6z GFS, it has a major winter storm on it to watch and debate for the next 8 days.
Jan 13th
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_204m.gif
Jan 14th
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_216m.gif
Jan 15th
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_252m.gif
Jan 16th
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_276m.gif
Jan 17th
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_312m.gif
Jan 18th
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_324m.gif
Jan 19th
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_348m.gif
ok, here another good one after hank
hank JR
FEELIN BETTER!!!
i like CB thoughts, thinking us SE/E peeps are going be very,very,very, HAPPY.
henry at ACC had nice thoughts last nite on storm as well.
getting ready to update this morning.
he says 35-40-1 ratio are possible in ky.
Be careful:
Since I am materials manager I have authority for the trip. I may cancel, since ground zero will be I65 and then I64 will be nasty later on (that is or route coming back Thursday).
Do I sense a Winter Storm Alert Mode before a Threat is even mentioned!? This may be the storm that happens with!
Watches already out for Western Kentucky!!!
Here is the watches & warnings map incase someone like to have it.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/wwa.gif
The one thing to watch out for is the track and intensity. How many times in the past 12 years have systems tracked like this from the west but diminished as it tracked over KY and the system splintered and also broke up due to verga? A lot.
If Kentucky is on the fringe of the system and ii is not also blowing through West Virginia, we could see western KY getting the main part (70%) and the rest of the state getting the left-overs (30%).
Need to see the expected track of the system to convince me otherwise.
I am not saying this will happen, just reminding people of our history with these events.
What is the expected track of this one in regards to west to east? That will clue us in.
My thoughts are we should see a “good” event, but need to know the expected track of the system.
GOOD MORNING!! my weather lover buddies… Last night I was beginning to wonder if any snow at all was gonna fall down here..it snowed yesterday, and just as soon as NWS issued adv. it quit!!!.lol.. but around 11 or so last night the flakes started again, and this morning its snowing pretty good outt there, with about 1/2 to 3/4″ of snow I guess maybe more. THe roads are snow covered here in downtown Barbourville, so I’m sure they are snow covered and slick throughout the whole area…and yet another day of NO SCHOOL!! looks like they are gonna miss the whole week!!..what a CHristmas vacation…but they arent gonna like their summer vacation if this keeps up…LOL..
I hope we can keep this snow today, hopefully the sun wont take care of it later on,and we can just add it all up til saturday…yeah right wishful thinking…LOL..:)
I agree Bubba, but this one is pretty potent. I think the snow total maps are pretty accurate, maybe more with spotty higher ratios.
Tracking the storm
Notice the 1007-1008MB, I think it grabs some of the lakes moisture as it heads east?
Here is a closer look at snow totals, I don’t think its got the high ratios included, but with the qpf .30-.60.. this could be pretty accurate.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
winter storm watches extend from southern Indiana,Illinois,western ky.,missouri, and south to the tn/miss. state line..where 2-4″ is likely in the memphis Tn. area as well…Needless to say this one will be fun and interesting to watch unfold…
Goodmornin Tim! very interesting to see who gets what out of this one!
Got the homemade eggs, sausage, biscuits and gravy fixed yet!? 😉
this from JKL.. what I a couple days ago, in this part of their discussion they talk about the dynamics to the low being to the north (of my area)resulting in high snow totals in northern ky..and not so much here in the south…
If this happens, southern ky. wont make Winter STorm watch criteria..an adv. at best…but I hope its WRONG!!
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL LINED UP FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS TAKE A SURFACE LOW EASTWARD OVER EASTERN KY…WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PASSING TO OUR N. THIS IS NOT NORMALLY A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH…IN THIS INSTANCE IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THINK THAT IT WILL BE A HIGH
RATIO EVENT…AND THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PICK UP 2-3 INCHES FOR
MOST PLACES.
Looks like I need another cup of java! lol I meant to say.. Got the eggs, sausage, homemade biscuits and gravy fixed yet!! 😀
My biggest concern with the upcoming storm system is that people will not take it seriously if there is less than 6 inches of snow, and a WSW is NOT issued. With blowing and drifting snow, and wind chill indicies. Would that NOT classify it as a winter storm?
Bernie, Wxman, somebody…just wondering.
We have 12 degrees here this morning with very light snow. Nothing major, as we are just far enough west to miss out on accumulations. Wind chill right now is 1. I am wrapped up like a package as I am going in and out all day. And our heat at work is not working properly, so I am hovering over a small space heater under my desk. Thank goodness! Not fun to have to wear your coat all day when you are INSIDE. We are working on getting a fix for that.
2-3 inches the story of the past 12 yrs for the big snows
Overall look.. Check out Louisville & Lexington.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Still snowing in Lexington. Can anyone tell me why Fayette Co. seems to always be split down the middle of the county for snow totals? Are we the center of the dome? ha!
Tim, I have heard three different scenerios. I guess we will just have to wait and see what Chris says. I am sure that he will give more info as it comes in.
Another couple of sites that I visit seem to think the snow will be fairly widespread, and pretty even, except in some spots.
Well LMK is giving Jamestown,KY up to 4″ of snow…so I’ll go with LMK office for the forecast…lol
=D First Snow Day, and it’s still snowing… 😉
Yesterday, we did have school, but it was gorgeous! I taught with my blinds open, and just loved seeing the snowfall throughout the day.
Can someone explain the snow ratios? Sorry if it has been posted-I guess I missed it!
John Belski says 40:1 ratios will be possible as well.. He is going with 5-7 total for the entire storm.. Not a bad first call 🙂
I was wondering how you made Homemade eggs…LOL…:D
GFS backed off on moisture 🙁 🙁 🙁
Good morning guys! Looks like all our dreams are coming more true the closer this event gets. Looks like the QPF gets higher day by day too. Someone due me a favor and run the QPF for Murray, KY area cause local news says 1-3 inches and everyone else has us at 3-6 inches. Thanks
Here in Letcher County we have localized amounts of around 5 inches…with some areas southeast of here getting close to 8 inches.
Hmmm…I wonder if stuff like this gets broadcasted like it would have before the Global warming issues took front and center…..
SETUP FOR COLDEST EVER IN IOWA?? (or eastern Nebraska)
I mean come on…practically the entire Northern Hemisphere is colder than normal right now….I just saw where a train was trapped in snow in CHina this morning, Freeze warnings all the way into the heart of Citrus growing areas in FLorida and Tx. Coldest since the late 80’s in some of these areas….So why arent there any MEDIA FRENZIES OVER THE COLD!!!…But we all know the answer to that, its because its not REALLY COLD..its just all part of the plan..:D…LMAO
Snow totals for Lexington area…Anyone?
snow hog!!!…LOL…lets all go to jared’s you know like the commercial says…
HE WENT TO JAREDS!!!!!!….LOL…
(you know the jewelry commercial)..lol
Good song, but it’s in error and everytime I hear it I go nuts. At 5 below, there wouldn’t be freezing rain. 🙂
NEW 12z QPF totals.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
I think that is .5! Tim told me 5×2=10! haha (20:1 ratio).. 4-8″ would be a good forecast for Louisville & Lexington? Maybe spotty 5-10″ Looking forward to Chris’s update.
The Epicenter is Versailles.
henry at accu indeed agrees with NWS heavier snow to north of KY.
i didnt say i did though.
Anyone know the conditions in Harlan? And traveling to Harlan via Corbin/London/Pineville?
My grandmother is wanting to go home tomorrow from Waynesburg and I’m wanting to find out about the road conditions. Thanks to anyone who can help.
A whole 2-3 inches?! Wow…lol.
I hope they’re wrong…
Don’t cancel your trip BubbaG
i expect SE /E KY to go under WSW by this evening. maybe the 4 oclock update.
JMO, i mean I am a ole hillybilly in the backwoods.
Never fails looks like my lil area of western Kentucky barely gets any and north and east get the bulk.
I am telling the truth in viper that’s about 12 miles south of hazard will have already got about 4-6″ of snow and is still snowing. Be snowing seens sunday night and hasn’t really quit, yet.
LOL..I was reading belski’s blog and he has this humorous little thing called the bread index…0 slices means no snow…10 means a crippling storm…he has 5 slices up!! so you northern ky. snowlovers should love that…right in the middle somewhere…lol..lol..
Bernie, hope thats right cause that would put Calloway with.5 at a 18:1 with 9 or 15:1 7.5 inches, lol.
From looking at the models and updates from other blogs, it seems like then inevitable is starting to occur. A backoff on moisture and less totals. Belski even mentioned the dreaded “dry slot.” Never fails here in KY.
ok tim since the city folks get sliced bread maybe we should have biscuits
how many biscuits you giving us ?
How’s this for cold? International Falls’ average for the first 4 days of the month has been -20°F!
You must have gotten under the same snow band I did.
I noticed Belski also mentioned the potential for 40:1 ratios.
Bernie what about eastern ky what might we get?
and to think how dumb Henry was for even thinking about it lol
The dreaded dry slot is what has killed EVERY west to east event in the past eleven years. This would not be a surprise. I mentioned this issue to Bernie earlier in the thread. Uncanny.
Discussing this right now. Looks like where we are going in Indiana / Illinois is the heavier snow areas. At the rate the trends are going for Kentucky for this event, most snow will be north of KY, though the west part of the state should get a good snow.
This system may play out EXACTLY as every west to east system has for KY for eleven years. Do not doubt the dome;)
Well, still time for the track & trend to change, but I would not bet big bucks on more than a few inches at best.
Looks like the entire state of TN is going under the WSW.
as stated afternoon update from NWS will issue WSW for east and se ky.
book it danno.
okn a side note, NOBODY PUTS BABY IN A CORNER, man that was a great movie especially the end of it.
SWAYZE from that to roadhouse what a actor and BABY was a cutie.
and kelly linch wasnt bad either in RH.
Why cant I get the gfs model run to load past hr 180 on the 12 z run….What is up with the NAM showing dec 30th earlier???
i got deer tenderlloin and cornbred myself.
its still loading newer runs, just keep refreshing
how about 16″ of snow!!! well head to the top of black MNT. thats whats up there right now…
ole lord stuck in lodi yaaaaaa,,,
CCR now thats real musac as well folks.
Isee a bad moon a risin!!!! i see trouble on the way, in that its going to snowwwwwww,,, boutt as foooooooottt. s
Now it wont load past 48…..hmmmm
BUBBA i bet u 400 DOLLARS SE/EAST KY get 6 plus inches, u GAME!! U ARE WRONG SIR on this one. the NWS is about a day behind on there last update. wait and see the WSW go up with their next update.
YEP..NWS in NASHVILLE has put their entire area under a WSW..Lets see when Morristown takes care of the rest of the state, and Lou. and Jkl. for Ky…tic-toc..tic-toc…lol.. Im like rolo if they do and they probably will it will be in the evening package. Todd Borek is showing it already to the I-75 corridor by daybreak on Thursday…then it blows through, Temps will probably crash even more,with winds and blowing and drifting snow again by late in the day and that night…fun,fun,fun!!! til mother nature takes our T-bird away!!
We probably did, and we are still seeing some light snow
C’mon Bubba G…Have some faith.
That verga thing does scare me though.
However if I don’t hear Chris mention anything about it…I’m not too worried 😉
its gonna snow about less than half a foot imo ;)not that its worth anything
Yep, a dusting would fall under ‘less than half a foot.’ 😉
winter storm watch likely to be issued later thia afternoon by louisville nws.
here is my first call:
Paducah to Pikeville points NW 3-4” local 5-6” very possible. South of here I see 2-3” with locally higher amounts possible but less likely.
I’m going for 5-6″ for the Lexington area (including my house in Lawrenceburg).
I will say this. The best chances for someone seeing 6” or greater would be across the northern parts of KY say from Louisvile to Maysville line points nw. if track of low holds true to what we see now.
i think prob closer to dusting than half a foot lol 😀
I hope your right tommy, i live in northern scott co.
Would someone please post a map that shows the colors for totals on the bottom? 19 and snowing in Pikeville
Looking to cancel my trip, since whatever happens, big snow up north for “sure”. Not worth the risk getting stuck on the way back on I64 or 65.
Dry slots have killed us everytime for these east bound events, but perhaps the set-up here will prevent this? Though I said not to bet big-bucks, I did not say do not bet at all;)
Bubbacast (on average)
Worse case = 2″ 80%
Best case = 8″ 20%
Mountains, add two inches for both.
Folks, this system to me will either under-perform or over-perform. I see no middle ground.
Anyone have any idea what time stuff will start getting into my neck of the woods on Thursday? Thanks!
what does the ratio 40 -1 mean in Chris’s forcast today? The other day it was 30 – 1. Thanks for the info.
What are we looking at for Louisville?
yea latest snow maps i see show east tenn with 6 plus, yea it skip se ky then, not.lol
next runs will make all u believers boys and girls.
on a side note, obama is going to get 1,000s of americans killed with his ecruity failed work.
well at least we know who to blame if system under achieves 😉
Mitch do you think JKL will put out WSW for Eastern Ky?
i dont have much faith in this strom. No winter storm threat for the blog? That worried me
I say west ky..3-5″
points north of a line from E-town to Richmond to morehead north a 4-8″
bowling green to somerset to london a general 2-4″
from Middlesboro northeast to Jackson to ashland east 4-10″ , lesser amounts in the lower elevation area and 10+ easily in the highest of elevation…
my back yard in knox co. im gonna say 3″ then a couple more as the wrap around and upslope gets going on thursday night and friday…so if we can keep a good cloud deck and no sun 5 or 6″ total…
today I’ve had just over 1″ of FLUFF, which in turn caused a skating rink on the roads and parking lots this morning…
now…light snow, some radiational melting taking place on the blacktop surfaces and 20*
on a side note, we don’t need a repub apologist bashing the Prewsident on a weather site. I don’t really care about your political rightwing crap. Cheers.
hmmm….that is kinda odd isnt it…he’s probably out sled riding with wynter since he got over 3″ last night in his yard…:D
GOOD GRIEF!!! Lets not start that!!!…Its not left or right its (( WEATHER )) SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW..>>SPRING!!!!!!!!…:)
Wild. The states directly above and below us have WSW and Kentucky stares with indiffernce. 😉
Boys and girls, I’m with Rolo on this one. Obama will get us killed.
most likely…:) just not sure if it will be for the whole area for the northern 2/3 anyways, maybe winter weather adv. for the southern part…but we’ll see
on another side note a sad death today CASEY JOHNSON THE 30 year old heiress to the johnson and johson fortune found dead.sad
What time will the roads get bad in Lexington? Will the kids be at school when the weather rolls in? Thanks.
It helps determine the amount of snowfall due ti the coldness of the air, dry cold, etc. for example, with a 30:1 ratio….1 inch of rain would be equal to 30 inches of snow….1/2 inch of rain would be 15 inches of snow…1/10 of rain precip, would be 3 inches of snow..so on, and so on…hope this helps…the higher the ratio, the more possible snow…
this from a lou. blog…..
It looks like a Winter Storm WATCH will be issued later this afternoon. Cities currently under a watch include Nashville, Memphis, Paducah, Evansville, Kansas City, Des Moines and Omaha. The NWS will be holding a conference call for the media and all county EMA’s Wednesday morning.
GFS has over .25 precip so this would be 4 inches or more snow.
Earlier I talked about the dry slot in here. If that can be delayed for a while Thursday afternoon, what we get Thursday and Friday will end up in the 4-8 range. The GFS is showing some signs of slowing this whole thiing down slightly. The NAM is shifting the upper low a little further south. If this confirms then the chances for more than 4 inches will increase.
exactly tim we are going get a WSW here by evening update.
u and I will get our snow.
Oh, as opposed to your Prez, who already got thousands killed? You wingnuts are insane.
On a side note: talking about politics on this blog can, and most likely will, get someone banned. Drop it, both of you…
Tim, did you mention Spring…?? How dare you?! LOL! 😉
Fine. Then ban the one who started this garbage. Cheers.
I’m willing to bet that Jackson goes with WSW for all but Laurel… We’ll be the ones who get the WWA lol.
I want my snow too… [sigh]
All right boys don’t be trying to hog that snow us girls want some of that snow to you know.lol It does worry me that we do not have something from Chris yet that might be bad news for us snow freaks….
i know where he lives i will take care of him later
Chas, I want my snow, too. And enough to cover the grass totally, and the roads totally….:( Hope we get it.
waiting for an update from Chris…hope it comes soon!
MU HA HA HA HA..!!!
It’s not bad news, Marsha. CB probably is sleeping. I think he works late, according to his post times.
Either that, or he’s out playing in the snow, lol.
You will get snow, too. 🙂
This is a weather blog, please keep your personal thoughts about anything relating to politics to yourself, or those involved will no longer be able to post his or her opinion.
Thank you.
TG calling widespread 4-6” My gut is saying that sounds about right maybe 2-4 south and 4-8 north of louisville to maysville line.
Winter Storm watches now in effect for Central Kentucky.
from the Louisville WSW for Lexington…
* TIMING… SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND OVERSPREAD THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND AREAS SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. SNOW WILL END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER… LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA.
all of ky. with the exception of the JKL viewing area as of now is UNDER A WSW !!!
its going to be interesting to see how this event plays out, I am feeling good for everyone to get something decent of course we are all secretly hoping we are in a lollipop spot of heavier snow 😀
tic..toc…tic…toc…JKL….
Tim, we’re not going to hear anything till later this evening/tonight. Tis’ a tough decision to make when trying to decide between WWA and WSW. 😉
I am thinking that we will get the shaft again.
Bubba, whatever happens, you, my friend, at least have the good fortune of having a WSW thrown at you! We can’t even get that, to this point…;)
Maybe our luck will turn later this afternoon….(we can always hope)
** JACKSON NOT GONNA ISSUE A WSW FOR THEIR VIEWING AREA !! ** sorry rolo…:(
only a couple inches for you buddy..
DUE TO
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICE THIS FAR EAST…HAVE ELECTED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY SORT OF WINTER STORM WATCH AS THE RECENT TREND HAS
BEEN MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA AND QPF TOTALS WOULD
NOT SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT…STILL CONFIDENT IN
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE INITIAL
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND THEN A LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT INTO THE
WEEKEND. KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR AREA AND FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES COULD INCREASE
TOTALS. WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIALS AND IMPACTS AND CONTINUE TO HIT THE SYSTEM IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MISTAKE esp for more northern areas of their FA these type of systems tend to overachieve their expectations.
long as i get home to clay county thurs night from houston, i dont care if it comes a foot or a inch. im usually all for snow, but ive been here since 22 of dec, im ready to go home.
i dont think my other post went, but here is this one. rolo, we are talking about the same superstar . J.R. He was my uncle, and we was really close. i heard him mention a rolo before, and was wondering if it was the same one.
Can’t say I’m surprised they’re holding off on a WSW at this point.
At least they don’t rule out the possibility of one being issued altogether.
I truly hope that all the folks hoping for big snowfall amounts in SE Ky are disappointed with this system. This sort of snow may not pull down trees and powerlines, but travel is bad enough in the hills with just a couple of inches of powder. I really don’t enjoy driving up into the hills to work in that sort of weather. Bring on the dry slot! Now, if I could just get a percentage of the milk and bread sales in the next couple of days…
Either Tennessee is being too liberal with their WSW for the whole state, or someone is wrong. How could above and below your area be and yours not?
302 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010 /202 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010/
…FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF THIS WINTER SEASON AND BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND…
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THOSE AREAS OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY…WEST OF INTERSTATE 65…
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY MORNING AND OVERSPREAD ALL OUR
REGION BY MID MORNING. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST WEATHER DATA…SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE LOWER
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH AN ANTECEDENT
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE…SNOW FALLING THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADWAYS AND MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA HAZARDOUS. IN ADDITION…STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DECREASED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND
THE WIND WILL ALSO DRIVE WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY…A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES…SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
COMMONPLACE…MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OF KENTUCKY…RESULTING IN SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS…THIS
COLD SHOT OF AIR WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOW IS THE TIME TO START MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING SNOW
AND COLD. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE TAKEN STEPS TO PROPERLY WINTERIZE
YOUR CAR. AREA ROADWAYS ARE LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BE SURE TO GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF SPACE ON THE
ROADWAY AND ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE TO STOP. ALSO MAKE SURE YOU GIVE
YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
IN YOUR HOME…TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO WINTERIZE ANY EXPOSED
WATER PIPES TO KEEP THEM FROM FREEZING. USE CAUTION WITH SPACE
HEATERS AND KEEP THEM AT LEAST 3 FEET AWAY FROM FLAMMABLE OBJECTS
SUCH AS CURTAINS AND FURNITURE. NEVER USE A GAS STOVE OR CHARCOAL
GRILL TO HEAT YOUR HOME. THESE DEVICES RELEASE CARBON MONOXIDE…
WHICH IS ODORLESS AND CAN KILL.
BE SURE TO CHECK ON THE WELL BEING OF THOSE THAT MAY SUFFER MORE
FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD…
When it gets to western Kentucky Wednesday night I’ll post how bad the storm is and then all will know, lol.
Hope we get an update from Chris soon. Of course, no news is good news….maybe we will get our wish. Also though, in fairness to Bubba’s logic, (and I tend to agree with him on this one) every time we get a WSW, we wind up with NADA. So, maybe NOT having one is not a bad thing…(hey when you want snow so desperately, you will TRY any logic that you can!) 😉
my map: [IMG]http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/winterstormpotential.jpg%5B/IMG]
This was posted on Jackson’s website under a Special Weather Statement:
…ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY…
STARTING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR AND
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND RESULTING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME…CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER…POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THEREAFTER…ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE AWARE FOR POTENTIAL WINTER STORM
HAZARDS.
$$
SCHOETTMER
CB must be busy, since unusual for hime to have a 13 hour gap during the day for potential events like this.
well i truly hope that people wanting a dry slot gets dumped on big time 😉 See it works both ways 😛
and if there is no snow you will get very little money from bread and milk sales
image has been deleted Tom Tom
You were right Tim. The low will pass to the north putting us in the wimp zone. Any thing over 2″ in Pulaski Co. would be a shock. Doubt we’ll see that.
He’s Tweeting, or Twittering – whatever. LOL
hang on i’ll fix this
one of these three should work:
http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/winterstormpotential.jpg
ILN put out a WSW for Carroll, Gallatin, Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Owen, Grant and Pendleton counties in their warning area for 2-4 inches.
However they decided to get cute and left out Bracken, Robertson, Mason and Lewis counties in the WSW. I bet that will change before all is said and done.
18z NAM is coming in with lower snowfall totals as a whole for the storm not just for Kentucky but other states that are suppose to be affected as well.
its weird how they say upwards of 4” but only say 2-4? needless to say if anyone in KY gets over 6” it would be most likely be the tri-state area.
If you jinx us Bubba we’re coming after you.
It sure wouldn’t be warm rain slick…..maybe he was talking about 5 below celcius….i’ve seen freezing rain with surface temps in the teens bud
Isn’t there PAST DATA with similar events and how they unfolded? Cold arctic air in place for days, a system diving southeast from the northern plains etc. I’m sure similar events have happened before, but then again, every event isn’t the same. I mean, this isn’t a clipper, it’s a small storm.
Whoever made the comment about SUBLIMATION yesterday…. that is interesting. I wondered the same thing; it was bitterly cold out yet the snow melted away, so I looked it up. Now I know 🙂
Bubba…I can see in your comments that you’re to the point that this past decade of snowlessness has turned from negative, to realistic, to comical
Yeah, local mets up here think ILN went too low w/their totals…probably should be double.
I know I am pushing the envolope but ah well lol ahh… maybe if we can get some 35mph gusts we could go blizzard warning? i realize this is far from a record snow storm but heavy snow plus quite a bit of wind plus temps dropping into 10s/0s i’d think we have a better chance than usual.
Just got this in my email
KYZ088-118-120-060500-
/O.EXT.KJKL.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100106T1200Z/
HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.HARLAN.WHITESBURG.PIKEVILLE
351 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010
.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY.
* EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEN TAPERING TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS & FLURRIES BY LATE
WED MORNING.
* EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF
THE RANGE.ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
* HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
It looks like we may finally get us a snow around here…..nws saying 3-5 for here…. belski commented that one model was going farther south with the low and another model slowing down a bit…..both would be Great…we’ll see
I wonder why my Twitter is no longer coming through on Chris’ page. It used to update with a couple second of hitting https://www.kyweathercenter.com, but now nothing. I’ve refreshed the page over and over and still get nothing.
T.G..just said on news @ 4 that a general AREA WIDE 3-6″ looks likely, with sweet spots that could get more, he seems to think a WSW will or at least should go up for the eastern counties as well…he said its gonna be major IMPACT!!…
and speaking of impact, snow has began to accumulate again here in knox co. roads and paved surfaces are getting snowcovered again…
and I heard through the grapevine that KNOX CO. schools are closed tomorrow..
yeah i was fixin to post that what very little black top was showing here is starting to get covered again
Let’s hope, T.G. is right!!
Tim, how are the kids liking their extended vacation? 😉
Just heard that Laurel is closed again tomorrow. It’s been snowing off and on here all day, though no major accumulation. Side roads are still fairly slick though, so I can understand the need to err on the side of caution.
Dont laugh chas…NO SCHOOL IN LAUREL EITHER…LOL…
That’s why the ice cubes in your freezer get smaller if they sit a really long time 🙂
great minds think alike…LOL…:)
Um thats what she just said LOL 😉
Hey, I’m totally cool having the kiddos home a little while longer. While we’re at it, lets make it the rest of the week off! 😉
Although I was absent from KY from 1982-1992, it always seems to me when 2-4 inches are predicted for Lex, we almost always wind up with more. January, 1977. BOOM. January, 1978. BOOM. March, 1993. BOOM. January, 2004. BOOM. March, 1996. BOOM. February, 1998. BOOM. December, 2002. BOOM.
So if you guys are wishing for a pile of the stuff, you may actually want an official NWS prediction of 2-4.
I think CB is making his calculations on this storm to let us know how much to expect. Maybe he will update with the info soon.
18z GFS is weaker. Looking like Ohio River north will see the good stuff. south of that general 1″-4″
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_048m.gif
that link is only for a six hour period- at 48 hours.. you have to look at each period to get an idea of the overall impact. Look ahead to the 54 hour, 60 hour, 66 hour and 72 hour.
And, that is only one run of one model.
New totals gets better and better for Lexington.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Well Chris just said on WSAZ that we would get snow state wide and TG said 3-6 state wide with the sweet spots more where is that sweet spot is the million dollar question lol???????
New post by Chris!!!!