Good Thursday everyone and welcome to the last day of 2009. By the time you are reading this… chances are you will have had a slushy accumulation of snow under the cover of darkness that was gone by the time the sun came up. Welcome to the crazy world of weather around here.
As precip moved through the area overnight… moderate to locally heavy bursts of snow moved through putting down snow faster than it could melt. With temps that never go below freezing… once it stopped snowing… the snow started melting away. Slightly warmer air will be moving in as well meaning plain old rain will take over as well. Moral of the story… if you didn’t stay up… you won’t believe that it snowed. 
That brings us to the remaining hours of 2009 and those hours will be ugly as low clouds, light rain and chilly temps remain. Whatever is out there will show up here…
Colder air will move in later tonight into the New Year’s Day as temps start out near 30 and wind up in the low 20s by late afternoon. A Few snow showers and flurries will be possible as well. From that point on.. we keep an eye on the northwesterly flow and any disturbances that will be embedded withing this arctic blast. We will also have to keep a close eye on the EXACT wind trajectory coming across Lake Michigan as that will be the determining factor on where the intense snow bands coming off the lake set up. The GFS is showing a touch more westerly flow than is optimal for these bands and upslope flow around here…
GFS Snow Through Sunday Morning
That wind flow depends on what kind of storm is setting offshore from New England this weekend so it is certainly not a given. The other big story of the weekend will be the arctic temps moving in. Lows may hit the single digits Sunday and Monday mornings as the cold air locks in for what should be much of the month of January.
At some point… we are going to get another big storm or two out of this pattern. The models are showing another potential for next week… yes, the famous “next week snowstorm”!!! 
Canadian Model
GFS
I will have another update later in the day so check back. Happy New Year and take care.
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7 days ago looked so promising and 7 days from now look promising. 2 things are real here in central ky. The 7 day theory and the snowdome.
looks like somebody was wrong about no accumulating snow for Thursday even though it may not be out there now it did accumulate after midnight which made it Thursday
I have no idea what happened overnight but our yard in Bourbon County is completely covered in snowy slush. It is 36 degrees.
Have a safe and happy New Year’s Eve bloggers!!
No slushy snow in Millville — just wet and gloomy at 41 degrees. I had to laugh at the perpetual possibility of a snow storm “next week,” but we’ll prepare for the worst just in case. Happy New Year Weather Wonderers!
Saw a little bit of it on the ground this morning @ around 0500 on my way to work… as far as the forecast goes… WOW! We went from the posibility of snow showers everyday to the dreaded “it depends”! I need to move closer to my mother-in-law… at least then I will have a “snowy winter guarantee”! I think that I will have to agree… for now… with the nay-sayers on this winter… a winter with a bunch of potential but no delivery! Thank the powers-that-be for Perfect North, Snowshoe and my mother-in-law’s snowy backyard!
The “Donut Hole” LIVES!!! lol…ah, well…
MJ has a nice little early-morning extended discussion over @ LMK… 😉
Winter isn’t over yet, folks. January is usually when we get something, if anything.
However, I must say again, that if it means being without electricity…I don’t want it.
LOL. Looking at the Snowfall map, you can see the snowdome.
You know Lexington is going to end up with slightly above normal snowfall totals for December.
WEll, we got snow, sleet, and rain last night. There was a slushy accumulation on my deck, but as I was not out ont he roads, I couldn’t tell you about them. I do know the temp ws sitting at 35 degrees when we went to bed, and was at 38 when we got up thie morning.
Currently, we have light rain, very COLD rain, and 38. IF the rain keeps hanging around, as the temps drop, there will be icy spots on the roads, so everyone PLEASE be careful out there!
Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to the next c-o-l-d post! Gt out the long johns, people, and the hunting socks! Sounds like we may need them!
1/2” last night for the event here before it melted after a change back to heavy rain, crazy weather!
GUESS WHAT GANG !!!! it gonna snow AGAIN IN DALLAS TOMORROW!!!!…SHEESSHHH!!! That will make 4 times for the month of Dec. and has NEVER happened in recorded history…
5.4 earthquake in s. california this morning…
and straight out of the movie 2012…Russia is creating some kinda space craft to supposedly blow up an astroid named apophis that could hit the earth in 2029 and again in 2036…HERE WE GO,,,MEDIA FRENZY,,,SURVIVAL KITS,,,ALOT OF PEOPLE GET RICH!!!… Hmmm…lets see how old will I be in 2029..umm..umm..UGH!…LOL.. I better start getting the wheel chair super charged!!!…lol..lol..
Lexington had snow last night. My husband took pictures to prove it to me. I didn’t think we did. According to the photos it was snowing pretty heavy, but when I got up none to be found. I wish the snow would be here and instead of a week away like always.
Can we pull out the stopper to the snow dome? ha!
Let us see how them there models are doing so far:
We have so far had four, week-away big system’s and all four were incorrect, except the eastern part of one of them.
That may be a good batting average for a pitcher, but that is about it;)
Central KY = Seattle;)
Lexington Massachusets
In terms of wintry precipitation why do we even consider what the models have to say with their deadly accuaraqncy and all.
How do you spell accuracy? And where is Rolo to help me with my spelling?
rolo must have been that 128 million dollar winner…he’s forgot about us…LOL..
Tim, even if I DID hit the lottery, I would not forget my weather buddies, and I am betting that Rolo won’t either. He ran out of no-doz, and is taking a nap! (JK rolo, if you are reading)
Light to moderate at times rain here right now, with temp of 39.
A whole lot of wasted cold for most parts of KY. Barbourville did get about 4″ of snow with the “big system” that came through E. Kentucky, but even that was much lower than what was forecast for this area. December was cold, but not much snow for a lot of us.
I’m kinda new to this weather forecasting stuff, but I’ve already figured out which model is correct. Just pick the one with the least chance of snow for central Kentucky, and you’ve got a winner, ha.
Why does a credible weather man hang his hat so much on the models for snow, when by the time the event occurs we get a cold rain? So when one time out of a 1000 he can say I told you say when the model is correct….Models=garbage….We will get our big snow when the models say sunny and high of 50…GO tops and UofL!!!
Here’s MJ’s look and next weekend:LOOKING SLIGHTLY DOWN THE ROAD BEYOND THE FCST PD SHOWS SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE 2ND WEEKEND OF 2010. LONG
RANGE MODELING ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
A SECONDARY POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS…A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE 31/00Z
EURO IS A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WHICH
RESULTS IN A MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE 31/00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE EAST WITH ITS
POLAR VORTEX WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO GAIN A
BIT OF LATITUDE AS IT HEADS EAST. THE OVERALL SETUP DEPICTED BY THE
LONG RANGE MODELING IS ONE THAT IS FAVORED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
WINTERY PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL
COMPOSTING…ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL HAVE HAD A DENSE COLD/ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR NEARLY A WEEK. IN ANY CASE…THIS SYSTEM IS
MORE THAT A WEEK OUT AND FORECAST SKILL IN THIS TIME RANGE IS QUITE
LOW. HOWEVER…THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
Joe Bastardi says big storm next week, which develops on the artic boundry that could rival the 96′ blizzard!!! lets just hope were in its path..:)
by the way Chris has been mentioning this also…
Two words….
ICE STORM….!
Been there, done that…
something to think about as well, as joe said just like in 96′ most folks didnt see it coming 1-2 days before because the models werent showing it…he says the same thing could be happening again next week…so maybe a HUGE SUPRISE COMING…well Im wishful thinking anyways…
JB is from one perspective like me a huge inner kid who would give anything for a historic snowstorm, he always tries to compare all North east us storms to the jan 1996 or march 1993 storms lol. The funniest thing he always does is put state college in the bullseyes snow swath lol. He is a hopefull guy which i like but his forecasts for around here suck bad, he totally ignored the icing here last jan. i believe, but thats why we have cb’s blog i rekon. For all i know state college is always the bullseye and his forecasts are always perfect for the north east.
So, now we’re talking next week..again. We all know how this will pan out….heavy snow for southern Indiana and northern KY, ice for central KY and a beautiful cold rain for the rest of us. Can we fast forward to April?
Is it wintery or wintry? Either way, I would rather have a specific type of precip, as in SNOW and NOT freezing rain. I reviewed my 2009 calendar to write down birthdays and whatnot on the new calendar and the final week of January 2009 reads, “Ice Storm. No Power.”
To that I say, “No Thanks!”
Go to April and we’ll get snow.
Just read Belski’s take on next weeks’ potential storm….he says that past set-ups like this have put down some awfully heavy snows in this part of the world, and IF it does what he thinks it will, we could be looking at a nice big ol’ deep powdery snow by next w/e sometime…
Keep chanting…1977…1977…1977…maybe if it hears us for long enough, it will make it’s way to us!;)
Either way is correct, they both mean of or having something to do with winter.
I say “no thanks” to no power, too.
hmmm…your right debbie, these are his exact words..Funny how he is saying the same thing that Joe from accuweather is saying Funny how when I post something he says…someones always got something critical to say about him..I wonder if they’ll whail on Poor ole Belski as they do Bastardi…SO immature, its a weather blog, were all looking for the quote,quote BIG ONE…all is good in the world of weather…:)
If you read the comments, you may have seen Rakemaker’s declaration of a possible M.O.V.E. late next week. Acutually, I think Rake may have mentioned this a couple of times. A MOVE is a Major Ohio Valley Event. Now I am going to say this…..and before I say it please remember we can talk about things in the forecast on the blog that we won’t say on TV because I know if you are reading this, you are a weather enthusiast.
This next system bears watching. Past events in set-ups like this have put down some pretty heavy snows across the Ohio Valley. It will be a dry powdery snow if it does develop. We don’t know the track yet…obviously….but there is potential for a snow late next week as a wave develops along the arctic boundary to our south. If all goes the way I see it….someone, somewhere in this part of the country may see a heavy snow. The models are still having difficulty picking this up so it will be interesting to see how this develops over the weekend.
Patty thanks for posting the info from NWS.
“A SECONDARY POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT WEEK”
I thought I seen the major blocker setting up! 😀
I didn’t know it was called that though or a 2nd northern jetstream.. IF it pans, we better be ready for something BIG! I’ve googled and googled, the last time I found that happened for the Ohio Valley was Jan 1978??
My 2 cents that I have read is if you get 2 northern jetstreams and add the southern jetstream, you get the storm of the century if ALL 3 phase! We know what happened in the Ohio Valley Jan 1978! I’m sure Chris, Shane, or Mitch can verify that info for me. I might be way off base!! lol 😉
Here is the 3 jetstreams phasing loop in Jan 1978.
http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/jan2427_1978_500_loop.gif
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY…
FOR NORTHERN KY. COUNTIES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY.
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE CHANGING TO FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY.
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY RESULT A LIGHT GLAZE CAUSING SLICK SPOTS
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS.
IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE…UNTREATED WET PAVEMENT WILL
FREEZE RESULTING IN BLACK ICE. BLACK ICE IS HIGHLY TRANSPARENT AND
THUS IS DIFFICULT TO SEE. BLACK ICE FORMS FIRST ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES
I just wanted to wish all my weather blog family a big HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!! I am glad to put 2009 behind me and I know 2010 will be much happier.Chris thanks for all you do in forecasting this crazy KY weather.Rolo if you won the big one each one of us weather bloggers gets a million lol.
January, 1978. Wow. I was a freshman at UK then, and had moved back in the dorm on Sunday after Christmas break. Went to bed with a forecast of 2-4 inches. Woke up to go to drop/add and there was a least a foot of snow. Drop add canceled, classes canceled for two days (first time ever). Kept snowing heavily all day. There was a game at Rupp that night and UK had Lextran buses take us from the dorms to Rupp. After the game, the buses were nowhere to be seen. Had to trudge all the way back from Rupp in the knee deep snow. UK suspended the normal visitation rules in the dorms and we had three days of huge parties. We sled down the hill on Woodland Avenue on trays we took out of the cafeteria.
The good old days…..
LMK still mentioning some snow next week. here is a clip from it
THIRD…AND PERHAPS OF MOST CONCERN…IS A STORM SYSTEM WHICH THE
LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF (AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GEFS ENSEMBLES) ARE
TRYING TO SHOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS DIG
A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SEWD OUT OF CANADA AND CARVE OUT A NICE
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. IN TURN…AN AREA OF SNOW
DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS AND HEADS ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HINTED AT
SOME FORM OF A SYSTEM IN PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME RANGE
HOWEVER…MODELS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN ON THEIR
FORECASTED EVOLUTION AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. THUS…WILL ONLY
MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST…THAT BEING TO ADD A CHANCE
OF SNOW ON THURSDAY…TO THAT ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL QPF AT THIS TIME IS NOT MUCH…BUT IN A COLD AIR
MASS…SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS WOULD BE QUITE HIGH. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON…BUT CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
Happy New Years to Chris and all the wonderful bloggers on here!!!!!!!!!! stay safe its almost time to party.
Crystal he can give the million to me and I will half it with you….. LOL
upslope snowstorm on the way for the west va. mnts…winter storm watches for 6-12″ of snow…to bad our upslope could be this impressive…
Well, fellow weather lovers, it is almost time to say goodbye to 2009, with all it’s good things and disappointments (in the snow department). Looks like it is going out with a cold whimper. But never fear, 2010 is near! And with it, comes the beginning of another year of weather, which we sill debate, and love or hate.
To all my weather friends, I appreciate what each and every one of you contribute to this blog. We are a family, (maybe a little dysfunctional at times) ;), but, still a family!
Best wishes to all my weather friends, and especially you, Chris, for all you do, and for the blog!
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!
I’ll make a toast to that…:)
Took the words right out of my mouth.
Seriously.
Wintry = Mix
Happy New Year!
Nope. We’re slightly above normal.
well gang my hour has come my blog buddies i am headed to benton harbor michigan area. 16-24 inches by sunday 😀 yea i am going take some pics! got my snow shoes and tent and flint and steel ready! snow is the best!!
Well, I don’t know about Bastardi’s 4cast, since I rely on “INAccuweather” about as much as I do ‘TWC”…which isn’t saying too much at all..lol!;), and I doubt that Belski’s faithful followers will go off on him too badly(at least I hope not..he’s such a nice nice fella..)
I’ve learned that, by watching some of the charachters in Belski’s Blog, a couple of THEM have an almost uncanny reliability in forecasting…Rake is very good (and quite amusing, if nothing else…), but the stand-out has to be Marcus Barnes.,..he was right on it last winter, and thus far he’s been right on it this year, too. (you can check out his winter 09-10 forecast @ markstenday.com, as well as his twice a day current updates…he called the big snowstorm out west, and has one tracking in ‘early January’…along w/ all kinds of other nice wintry wx….I hope he’s as right this year as he was last!:)
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