Good Monday everyone and welcome to Christmas week. A lot of the region continues to dig out from this weekend’s big storm that caused all kinds of problems. Thousands remain without power and will do so for a while longer as crews work to get the juice up and running again.
This big week is starting off with a quick moving band of light snow and flurries as a weak clipper works southward across the area. This light snow won’t amount to more than an inch or so at most but can cause some slick spots to start the day. Here is your light snow tracking radar…
The rest of the forecast looks like this…
Temps today will hang in the 30s as the light snow moves away. Tuesday will see clouds and sun and I can’t rule out just a touch of mixed precip as temps warm to the upper 30s. The snow on the ground is going to play a big role in temps over the next several days as temps will stay much colder than areas to the west that don’t have snow. This setup will play a role by Wednesday and early Christmas Eve Day as moisture streams in from the west ahead of a big storm. This may allow for some frozen precipitation during this time and that’s something we will be watching for the next few days.
The first storm will head up just to our west and this means milder air takes over switching any mix to rain for Christmas Eve into early Christmas Day. Here is the GFS…
Christmas Eve
Christmas Day Evening
That setup would mean falling temps all day long on Christmas with some snow likely in the air before the day is over. You will also notice another low developing across the east coast and that’s something to watch for. The Canadian model looks similar and is showing this second low taking over…
In the wake of this low… MUCH colder air moves in for next weekend and there is energy diving into the base of the trough that would try to develop another storm by late weekend or early next week.
The pattern to close out 2009 and usher in 2010 is loaded with an active southern storm track and an increasing amount of arctic cold that will enter the US. We have seen these two mixing it up already for a lot of the country, including right here at home. We aren’t even close to being finished as the best is yet to come.
Have a great Monday and take care.
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You forgot the most important item from today. Today the CATS make history as they will get their 2000th win. GO CATS and Bring on the snow.
tx Bailey Claus!!!
Thanks Chris! I am guessing that your weekend was pretty busy.
Looks ike a messy Christmas Eve around here for sure! Your thoughts on Christmas Day seem to suggest that rain turns to snow, but are temps going to drop enought to cause an icing problem for anyone during the day?
Looking oforward to your next post. thanks, and happy Monday to all!
Thanks for the updates chris…
most of the light snow last night stayed to my northa and east.. well The Christmas storm looks…yucky to say the least..But by the looks of the pattern we’re in, and going into, kinda looks like we’re all gonna be ready for spring by the time March 1st comes around this yr…
GO BIG BLUE !!!!! 2,000 WINS AROUND THE CORNER FOR YOU!!!
Anyone else surprised that we are getting another rainstorm for Christmas? I certainly hope the best is yet to come, (although for CKY that could be an inch), otherwise I’ll be ready for Spring soon…I certainly hope the Arctic air takes over soon for official winter, and finally brings ALL of CKY plenty of snow – I’m more than ready for it – 12 years is a ridiculous amount of time to be waiting!
Does anyone have kersone heather I can borrow and they lives close to letcher co we been without power sine firday and it wont be on till firday and we can find one anywhere if you know of one call 606-832-0032.
looking at the NWS 7 day forecast for my area is downright depressing…lol..
40’s-50-s for highs….rain showers, 45* on CHristmas day..BLAH!!!:(
Those WINTER STORM WATCHES AND BLIZZARD WATCHES going up for NEbraska, and Kansas should have been ours!!…if this storm had of BEHAVED RIGHT!!..
……..
I noticed alot of people talking this morning about FREEZING RAIN for the parts of N.C. during this next storm…that would be a HORRIBLE situation, so many folks still without electricity with 2 ft. of snow on the ground, now throw an ICE STORM on top of that….YICKS!!!
my sister just got hers back on yesterday around noon, here in knox co..what a mess…If I had one I’d send it your way, hopefully someone will help you all out soon…
Yeah, I talked to my grandparents, and they still have snow on the ground from their last blizzard and are now under a blizzard watch from now through Christmas Eve! It seems the snow rich get richer and the snow starved get poorer!
I know this is somewhat wishful thinking, but couldn’t the low split off one go to the lakes and one run up the apps, would we get the cold air or still stay in the warm sector??? I’m just wondering.
I sure hope the best is yet to come Chris in terms of snowfall in Anderson County because most of us here in Central Kentucky have not had a December to Remember. Haven’t even topped a half inch yet! 🙁
Looks like December was a lot more bark than bite for all but far east & south east KY.
We will see mainly rain, so the only white Christmas for most of us will be some snow showers, since the rain will wash what little snow we had away.
Yes, the season is early, but so far, KY has been the fence for EVERY system- central KY being ground zero. For eleven years now, our only decent snows have been clippers. Not the “old school” southern fed systems.
Results are KING and those trends are facts. Does not look good based on history and December results. The models continue to understate the impact of the warm air. Seems to me the models are so consistently wrong, this suggests a constant is out of whack in the models, rather than a variable.
But I have been preaching that for five years 😉
These same type of systems nailed us in 1987, 1989, 1993 and 1995. Then again, we were not the fence back then, either.
My optimism has dropped to almost nothing in regards to any snow above five inches for central KY. I have our results an constant models misses to support my view.
Sorry.
12z run of the NAM is slower and less organized with the Christmas storm on this run it shows one low over missouri and another low in southern Ala. and Miss.
but as usual this far out…GRAIN OF SALT!!…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif
Time to make a trip over the river and through the woods to Neils Grandma’s house we go…:)I hope they gotta big house cause I got 6 kids…LOL…:) tell her to have homemade cookies ready…:)
Bubba snow events for central KY for rest of winter 2009/10 based on trends and cold air shots expected.
2″ or less = 4
2″ to 4″ = 3
We will have more of a chance for a big ice event than a big snow event.
I hope this is not a Bubba curse, since I said the same thing about ice this time last year, too.
I am liking what I am hearing for the forecast for the rest of the year as of now. No travel difficulties for Christmas morning is what I need. Then around the New Year’s time frame if it wants to snow a LOT around here then I am all for it! Whether it will or not is what we will debate endlessly I am sure for the next 10 days.
We should have a good chance for snow showers, just not much on the ground, unless already snow cover- assuming our east KY friends are not washed out too.
As mentioned (Bernie or Mitch?) watch out for a chance of flooding.
Same ole same ole. Old man winter is being whipped by the ole heatmizer once again. An unimpressive start once again for 2/3’s of the state. Flooding & power outages are still a big concern for E. KY if we get a moderate to heavy rain event.
The odds of a white Christmas in central KY this year are going downhill FAST. 12Z NAM says get out the umbrella, rain boots, and camera (to take pics of the lightning). GFS backs it up.
I had to ease down the hill from where I live on N. 15 this morning. I was o.k. once I got on 15, but I had to wade deep snow just to get to my car and then try to get my car down the hill. I think I’ve had enough snow for the whole winter. I have friends who don’t have power and don’t expect to get it back on until after Christmas. We have people staying in shelters and/or with family and friends. All this kinda takes the fun out of the snow storms.
here is a nice graph of snowfall totals from Jackson weather office for their adv. area..
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=44843&source=0
Thanks, Tim. I understand what they are saying in the article under the map of totals. I left about 10 inches of snow at my house this morning. As I got closer to Hazard where I work, I was really shocked. They didn’t seem to have had nearly as much snow as I did at home.
Thank goodness I am headed for Chicagoland for Christmas! A rainy Christmas Eve and Day would blow. Plain and simple.
Hey Tim,
What does that mean for us? Snow or just alot of rain? I know its still early I am just hoping for the best all.
12Z GFS hasn’t changed. T-storms Christmas Eve night…cold showers Christmas Day…maybe flurries Christmas night.
Boyle County- 38* The temp last night fell to freezing for the first time since before Friday here. There was a trace of snow until sunrise from the nights clipper.
I am glad to see the NWS snowfall map. It puts things in perspective.
From the chat you would have thought all of eastern Ky was under a foot of snow actually it was relatively a very small area.
Winter has just got here. You cant call a fight before it begins. But with a attiatude like that id say you wont get anything.
I know that the snow didnt reach out in central kentucky like it was forecasted. But in the east there was a nice snow fall all over. I know, i live here. To say it was a small area is stupid i think.
You are entitled to your opinion. But look at the NWS map.
If snowfall is not measured very carefully in an open undisturbed area on a flat hard surface you will get inflated results.
I’m on it! 😉
Sadly, I fear you may be right – I hope you’re wrong, but the last winter we had a huge December storm in the area was 2004, and that one missed CKY by just a few miles to the West, and that was the pattern for the winter. That one also came before the “official” start of winter, but ended up being the way of things for us here. Last week’s storm missed us completely like the one in 2004, but this time to the east, by just a few miles. I hope this isn’t determinative of the winter as a whole, but recent history is not on our side. It really has nothing to do with a negative attitude, just facts…
I totally agree.. I think with just the little snow we got in Berea, I’m satisfied and to trade power for snow isn’t my idea of fun either! 😉
Anybody in the FLOOD prone areas, get prepared for flooding in your area, alot of water gonna be the main issue for the Christmas storm. 1″+ rain + 10″ snow = bad news! I know how Pike County is when it comes to mudslides and creeks over running in a matter of minutes.
Talking about bad luck, having now power for Christmas to see Christmas lights and hear Christmas songs as a normal traditional Christmas, as my parents and friends are still without power and the last word was December 26-30th or may even be after New Years.. I guess thats how they done things back in the OLD days, Christmas by candlelight!
He’s just mad he didn’t get any. I know I got eight inches of snow … I could give you some. LOL!!!!
FIRST OFFICAL DAY of WINTER!! 3 months of model waffles and BubbaCast to deal with!!
Out of 100 years worth of Decembers, there was only 4 Decembers to remember back in the early 1900s? Results are hard to beat the trend.
Yes, we had a lot of snow in Eastern Kentucky. Those totals have to be wrong on that list at the link above.
I know I had at least 10 inches or more at my house. Hazard had less from the looks of it or it melted faster down around town. But Hazard still had a lot of snow as did all of these Eastern Counties. We had a principals’ meeting at work today, and a few of them couldn’t make it because of the heavy snow and no electricity.
Friday night here was really miserable.
My power went off two or three times, but I was lucky that it came back on. Thousands of people were not so lucky and are still without power. There were wrecks, people stranded in their cars, etc. I’m ready for spring! 🙂
Perhaps you meant “altitude”, since that has been part of our problem;)
1. Good point about the flood and land slide chances for the holidays this week.
2. Look on the postive side, my max shows 20″ of snow;)
I am very serious about the ice chance- just as much as last year. Living on the fence has disadvantages:(
Still (for this week), one foot of heavy snow and no power, or 2″ and have power. I will take the 2″ EVERY time:)
I can’t believe that you were the first to point out “offical first day of winter”…….To all, enjoy this christams season, with / without snow, or even enjoy it with the ugly 40 degree rain.
what is your “max”
The wx doesn’t change at all just because it’s the 21st. But what DOES change is that from here on out…we get a little more sunlight each day! And THAT is worth being happy about!!
ME too!! Give me 2″ and have power, I’ll take it EVERYTIME my friend.
I know Chris says we can’t talk about politics and religion, but I feel that there has been a continental shift, I think eastern Kentucky has become the new Lexington, Kentucky of the OLD days? I’m sure at sometime there has been a degree or an earth’s axis tilted or has been rotated to a degree that includes more shift in the weather patterns or more of a S/SW flow.. instead of the dominate N/NW/NE flow we usually get in the winter? No facts, just my 2 cents and open for a debate. Until we get the snow like we did in the 70s/80s/90s.. one would think something has happened other then “COUGH COUGH” globa… 😉
you think you all have it bad in est by 2 pm in bwg (cst) you were concerned with being able to go outside while it’s still light and by 4 it’s dark. at least if it doesn’t snow the days will get a little longer. I posted the surrender card on the christmas storm and spread the word that the grinch is having a christmas party to track the thunderstorms after the 00z runs.
well december from here on out is zilch for lex AGAIN. i was up at pn slopes today and there was about 3” on 275W near cvg today. we just cant win in central ky. ok december is behind us lets focus on jan.
I honestly can’t think of a worse place in the winter for weather than CKY in the last 11-12 years – days on end of temperatures in the mid-upper 30’s, cloudy, punctuated by rainstorms, followed by more cold and cloudy. Doesn’t get much worse than that…
I find it interesting that four/five days out, there was pretty much a certainty of rain here, yet if there is a potential for snow, we don’t know anything until practically the day of.
MarkLex, I was thinking the same thing…I guess maybe rain is easier to predict, as there are not as many variables to deal Am I on the right track with my thoghts?
Chris, waiting for your thoughts on the Christmas eve system….how much rain are we gonna see? 🙁
I will take it. Throw that snow on over this way,lol.
Just to clear up what I said…..I know there was a good bit of snow in eastern Ky. but the majority had less than a foot thus:
“From the chat you would have thought all of eastern Ky was under a foot of snow actually it was relatively a very small area.”
Nope not mad just stating facts. But enough about that…..I will let NWS make their own case.
I do not see any arctic air for the next 2 weeks. So if anyone gets appreciable snow between now and then it likely would be a borderline situatuion again especially for central and southern Ky. If I am missing something please point it out.
Look at the 18z NAM….Blowing up a southern storm…..If the lakes cutter passes to our west, ushers in the cold air…..then the southern storm rides up the app mtns, we might be in luck…..Several model runs have shown this southern storm off and on….who knows.
UK2K. First to 2000. Everyone should celebrate by doing the John Wall dance.
As for the snow or lack there of in Woodford County I am just glad we have no power outages here. I feel for eastern ky because it hard to be without power. I wish we could have 2 feet of snow with no power outages and no snow sticking to the roads. That would be ideal.
On on U of K.
As of this evening there are 87,000 KY folks with now power. Now floods may be the double whammy later this week.
I wish they had “now” power;)
No power and possible floods is a bitter trade-off for the big snow- you can keep it;)
I remember all of the great snow in 78 only to be flooded out of our home in Prestonsburg that spring:(
Hey, I am trying to make everyone feel better about no big snows;)
Yeah Bubba
I remember snow staying on the ground for a while in the past and when it finally all melted away I remember thinking it was good to see the bare ground.
I talked to my dad today in western NC. He says all that snow is still there, hardly any of it is gone.
Big snow is overrated!
Now, everyone feel better now? You know if we got a “big one” it would be rain, ice, snow, ice, power out for days, cabin fever and probably cannibalism;)
Tastes like chicken:)
hmm….sniff,,sniff,,, the NAM is trying to sniff out a low coming outta the gulf on Christmas day on this particular run…the Gfs is SOMEWHAT alike. I guess we’ll see, and be careful for what we wish for, we’ve screamed, snow,snow,snow…and the first big one, throwed a FOUL BALL to the electric grids,and water lines down here, folks around pineville in Bell Co. some still without electric and water due to water main break, boil water advisories, but cant boil water if you dont have electricity…what a bummer!! Most everyone in east and south east ky. thats gonna be without electric til after CHristmas, would prefer a mild,green christmas this yr…and I don’t blame them, you dont know how much you rely on the good ole water/electric co…pays to have a back-up plan…
So I dont know whether to say I want snow for Christmas or not…I guess Given the situation that so many thousand are still with out power, I say the snow can wait…:)…
I forgot to post the NAM link…LOL..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_078m.gif
Interesting you should mention that”tilt/shift” thing in your post…I happened to watch a special about 2012 on the Discovery Channel. Some of the people on there were less than believable, but one man’s story made me sit up and think.
He was a WWII pilot, and was assigned to study the Alaskan area for possible attacks from Russia.
They couldn’t use the technology because of the magnetic force there, so they devised grids to mark the area. They discovered something while using the grids.
The North Pole was not in the position as it is shown on the map. The actual pole was shifting/tilting in that direction, however.
Your statement just made me think of that, and probably has nothing to do with the weather now.
Canadian shows an apps runner from the secondary low!!! Think Snow!!
Just like I hated it for those that became stranded on the roadways I do hate it for those without electric. However, as you say prepare and have a backup plan. When CB is calling for it and you have to drive take extra items with you including a couple days worth of meds. Pack at least a small bag and be sure to get the weather forecast before you leave. As for being prepared to lost electric have another means to heat and cook. I have a fireplace which I have already used multiple times this year so all appears to be good with it. Additionally, when we lost power last year I heated with fireplace, cooked on the fireplace and grill. As for the fridge I kept the doors on it and my freeze closed. Once the started to warm inside I took stuff outside in coolers and wrapped them if needed and packed the coolers inside and out with snow and ice. I plan on getting a generator this spring to further my preparations. I wasn’t a boyscout but I learned from them and my own personal exeriences. Don’t wait until the last minute to prepare either. We should each stay prepared for disaster.