Good evening and thanks to all those who checked out the live chat. Wow… we were on overload for that one. 
I promised you guys a first call map and here it is…
The numbers will change so don’t take it all to heart! It is only a FIRST call… not the last!!! Full update later tonight so check back. Take care.
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There we go … good job
Just looked at some data down in the gulf from buoy’s… 1006 mb right now and droping… about 2-4 mb stronger than the models were showing for this time earlier. It’s strengthening faster than projected. 0z NAM is looking good… I’m off to bed, my 3-day week got canceled.
somebody get Chris a designated driver
Regarding Feb 98. I remember 104.5 the cat and listening at work and them saying EXTREME eastern KY winter storm warning but for central KY, a few flakes but nothing major. We know what happened there. What are the similarities/differences between that storm and this one?
is Letcher Co 3-6 or 6-10
Chris, better not be your last call because I won’t more snow. 🙂 Nice live chat I just couldn’t get my questions in. Too many people and not enough Chris’s.
Chris will be uppin the totals IMO….0z nam looks gooooooood!!!
lex is going to get hit, nw trend isnt on models but it is a simple reality
Sweet..I’m right on the 3-6 and 2-4 line in Pulaski Co. I’ll split the difference and call it 2.5 – 5″..lol… 00z nam looked pretty close to 18z run
Great LIVE chat CB…
And I am one of the few that got ALL my questions posted..!!!
This Storm may overachieve, but the Christmas eve/day storm is the one to watch folks…could be a MONSTER…
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0z nam has lex wit what would appear to be .5-.6 qfp if its all snow, nice
I would like to ask a question…but I’m afraid someone will call me retarded for asking it…
anything before 00z is likely rain.
Letcher is in the 6-10
00z Nam has snow falling, Friday night, Saturday, Saturday Night, Sunday…
And then we get the clipper..!!!
…
Ask away no one will think you’re retarded.
Hey Vinny, You got any idea when that clippper is coming though? Sunday night?
Looks like Sunday night/early Monday…
A quick hitter, but could add another 1″-2..
…
When you go to the maps, what does the “coarse, medium, and fine” mean?
Ok Thanks buddie!
based on the 00z nam the 3-6 needs to come further west to 1-75.
by the way the eagles game in philly sunday against san fran should be a good one as two feet of snow could hit the area right before the game. the jets have a nfl game during the storm nam shuts down 1-95 as well.
Go Eagles! Go snow! Eagles will be playoff bound, imo. Go snow!
I hate the idea of a prolonged period of RAIN tomorrow…I hope that DONT happen…
It won’t, Tim. Calm down. 😉
You know, that’s a retarded question. LOL JK. After all of the years I have been learning to read models and junk, I have never figured out what they mean. So you’re not alone here. But sorry, had to say the retarded part lol.
Id like to see this one answered too. Ive allways wondered what the heck that meant
I think those terms are referring to resolution – someone correct me if I am wrong…
the nam does not have the clipper, let’s see what 00z gfs comes up with.
here’s my forecast from the NWS for knox co..
Friday…Cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the morning…then rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Little if any snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Light winds. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Friday Night…Snow and rain in the evening…then snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Saturday…Snow. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 4 to 7 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.
Saturday Night…Cloudy with snow likely. Light additional snow accumulations likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
Sunday…Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s.
I’m intrigued… That precip shield looks really north and west then what the models were showing… I think, someone help me on this one.
chas…you gotta remember what happened to me back in March when we got the snow…remember??? it turned to rain just south of Corbin, while corbin north got over 3″…I barely got an 1″… and I only lived about 12 miles south of corbin,that storm Haunts me when they start saying rain, and valley locations may hold to rain until late friday night…I DONT WANNA HEAR THAT…
I remember that, but I really don’t think that’s going to happen this time around. TRUST ME ON THIS ONE!!! 😀
BTW – Chris just “tweeted” that Alert Status is coming tonight!!
Very funny, Justin…but at least I’m not alone, lol.
Appreciate the responses, folks. Chas, that does make sense…maybe Shane or CB or someone who knows will let us in on the secret.
MIchael S, I am very close to that line, as well! Hopefully, we will both get to see a good one out of this! Tim, a lot of our big snows have been rain at the very beginning, so don’t lose heart! I think this time, we will see it…I hope…;)
hmmm…I wonder if that means the NWS will flip the ” PINK ” switch or not before tomorrow morning….(LOL..Pink switch) I like that one…well thats what we look for the Dark blue watch to turn to the Pink WARNING…:)
yeah, i know but given our track record, you cant help but to be alittle gun shy…:)
well i guess we get some sleep tonight, because tomorrow night it will be an up all nighter, measuring snow every 5 minutes…lol…I believe rolo has done passed out somewhere, he must of had him some Rum with alittle peacan pie in it..:).. he’ll be up bright and early in the morning,,yellin and a screaming at us to get our sorry butts up outta the bed….LOL…
First of all I want to Thank Chris for all the hard work he does for his blog readers/fans.
I hope everyone stays safe while the white stuff is comin’ down.
I hope I get to the store before they sale all the milk…
I was wonderin’ too, if anyone knew about what time it was goin’ to change over from rain to snow in my neck of the woods? Any info would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks again Chris.
Stay Safe everyone and you have to be out in this, please be very careful…
Let’s give him a cookie …. WHO HOO!!!!
Well, this is true….but I think that MAYBE, just MAYBE, we can start to tear down the fence, or at least a little part of it….this time….I am keeping a good thought, and crossing my fingers and toes, too! 😉 😉
12z GFS is starting to come around! 🙂
I feel that anybody EAST of I-75 isn’t going to be disappointed!
gfs brings plenty of qfp back into lex about .5 or .6 just like nam
correction.. 00z duh! its called to many model reading today or lack of sleep!! lol
Thanks Chris for the awesome live chat…answered a whole lot of good questions thats for sure.
I still need a bit of a westward trend to get a better smackdown here in Anderson County. Looks like we are in the 2-4 in. area for now.
gfs and NAM looking good. But the big question, how much moisture available along and just west of the I-75 corridor?
I wonder if JKL will add another tier of counties to the WSW?
Tommy…how many inches of snow does .5 or .6 liquid mean for the lex metro?
5-7″ im calculating.
yep if its mostly snow, but qfp is still underdone on both models this thing is turning into a beast look at the radar!
I’m in the same boat as you Russ. I live in Eastern Pulaski Co. I really don’t expect too much here..2″ tops…I’d say London will be on the fence between 2-4 and 3-6..I’d guess JKL adding a few more counties to the WSW..Laurel, Jackson maybe couple more
I’d say 3-5, some of that will be rain initially…
…
According to their latest discussion, they don’t seem to find it necessary at this point in time. We’ll probably be lucky to squeeze an advisory out of them.
“CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH OUTLINES WELL THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS OF SEEING 4 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY… WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 4
INCHES EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA AND NO CHANGES TO THIS ARE
PROPOSED AT THIS TIME. HERE ARE SOME OF THE LATEST IDEAS ON THE
SYSTEM…”
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=KY&prodtype=discussion
lex should be under winter storm watch but not even an advisory, incredible. NO MODEL says less than 1” lol
One thing to mention, since temps will be in the low to mid 30’s on Saturday, road conditions should not be terrible. A heavy wet snow would be more damaging in regards to trees and power lines.
If this thing can put some snow on the ground then the clipper for Sunday\Monday that will really help our chances of getting a OLD SCHOOL for Christmas!!!!!!Santa me even need RUDOLPH
– WHILE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING… A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WE UPPED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT… AND
MAY HAVE TO DO SO INTO SUNDAY AT A LATER TIME. THIS SHOULD MEAN MOST
AREAS EAST OF I-75 END UP WITH AN EVENT TOTAL (NEAR 36 HOURS WORTH)
OF 4 INCHES OR MORE… RANGING UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLY NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.
Good evening, love the first call, but hoping for totals to rise in Monticello. Let it snow let it snow!!! Thx Chris.
Less than an inch in Somerset according to WLEX channel 18. Sure is a different map compared to others I have seen.
Ok Thanks!
the 00z gfs run is courtsey of the heatmizer and the grinch for the christmas storm. no sunday clipper which also takes away the next cold shot for early next week leading to lots of WAA.
Very strange I know it isn’t going to happen with this storm but laying in bed I heard the train whistle like I could here it as a kid before we would get an Old School snow. Haven’t heard it in years!!!
This system is much bigger.
I hope billy the goat didnt jinx us down here earlier…Since I live on the border or close anyways, our local cable carries Knoxville stations…and one station actually showed knox whitley,bell,and parts of clay county only getting 1-2″…ITS A STINKIN SHAME NOT 2 forecasts are the same…geez…I’ll stick with Baileys forecast…:) cause it puts more snow in my backyard of course…LOL…
Your worried about rain, I’m worried about track being to far east…LOL…we can’t win!!!!
Your worried about rain, I’m worried about track being to far east…LOL…we can’t win!!!!
Your worried about rain, I’m worried about track being to far east…LOL…we can’t win!!!!
Well, I am going to bed now. Hopefully when I get up in the morning there will be a Winter Storm Warning and they’ll say we’re going to get a foot! I know one thing though! It’s a mighty bad feeling to wake the next morning and find that one has been cancelled!!! Anyone know the feeling?
the heatmizer loved that run a squall line of thunderstorms christmas eve if correct. big christmas eve party at the grinch’s based of the 00z gfs.
west west west!
That’d be our stinkin luck…a monster storm but it takes a Lakes cutter path…00zGFS for next week = not playing nice
Instead of joining in on all the chit-chat of technicalities, I’ll just post my forecast for this system based on what I’ve seen. Local areas are highlighted.
*Snow Advisory/Winter Weather Advisory is classed together as the same advisory by the NWS, so if an advisory gets issues, a Winter Weather Advisory would be in effect for the Snow Advisory area as well as the Winter Weather Advisory area on this map.*
Map is not official, and is still subject to change.
http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/ii147/aaron5951/december18192009storm.jpg
The shield of rain in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and western Georgia and Florida is definitely impressive.
Once this storm makes its left turn, we will have a good handle on where the winter precipitation (and the heaviest of it) will set up.
Going to bed, not feeling confident after reading Mitch’s post about Christmas Eve storm and the less than an inch amount for Somerset for this weekend from Channel 18. I saw TG on 27 say we are in the 2-4 inch range, but we’ve been burnt so many times down here I guess I’ll have to see it to believe it.
Joseph, not that it matters much, but I’ve forecasted Somerset for 2-4.” Guess we’ll see.
just one run don’t hit the panic button yeet.
I wouldn’t worry too much about the clipper and Christmas storm. It was just one model run.
This storm is packing some punch and Im suspecting that a winter storm watch will be post in lexington east by midday tomorrow (after national weather service) finally figures out whats happening). This is trending bigger and more west from what Im seeing.