Good Friday everyone. The blog is moving it up a notch to Winter Storm ALERT mode for the eastern half of Kentucky for late this afternoon into Saturday as a major winter storm is likely to bring significant snows to the region. I would imagine Winter Storm Warnings will go up pretty quickly today.
Before we talk totals… here is a breakdown of how things will try to play out.
1. Rain will develop from south to north rather quickly late this morning into the afternoon hours. This will cool the atmosphere allowing for snow to mix in with a rapid change to snow taking place by evening.
2. Moderate to locally heavy wet snow should be common this evening into Saturday morning.
3. Saturday will see snow becoming lighter in nature from west to east as the day wears on.
4. Snow showers and flurries will then continue into Saturday night and Sunday morning.
5. This will be a wet snow and the heaviest totals will be in the east and we will see a sharp drop off to the totals the farther west you live.
6. Road conditions will become hazardous Friday evening through Saturday. Give this is a wet snow… we need to watch the power lines for the areas that get the heaviest snowfall.
How much are we talking? The two models we follow the closest have been rather consistent in what they have been showing for the past few days. The NAM continues to really blow this storm up and would bring one heck of a snowstorm to the region…
NAM Snowfall
The GFS also brings a decent snowstorm… but has the heaviest totals shifted to the east from what the NAM shows…
GFS SNOWFALL
My take on this is somewhere in between the two models from above…
Please keep in mind that the lines are NOT an exact dividing line as the weather doesn’t work that way. This is my 2nd call for snowfall and I will have a final call out by early this afternoon. I am sure I will change the numbers around as I get a better look at how this thing is shaking out.
You can track the rain and snow in here today with the regional radar…
Again… I will have another update coming later this morning or early this afternoon so please check back. Happy snow tracking and take care.
Select Page
Lookin good Chris, thanks for all you do! Looks like I will have a white b-day and hopefully the cats go 11-0 and a WHITE Christmas…………sounds good to me! 🙂
Looks like Lawrence County and Louisa is looking better with every map.
Lookin’ good Chris. I like ALERTS!
Advisories, advisories….I guess if any get posted they’ll have them up by sunrise.
Goodnight all!
Alert mode… Haven’t seen one of those in awhile. I kinda like it! Would like it even more if those totals would get bumped up a little more. 😉
Now to try and get a little sleep. Gonna have a long night ahead of us if all goes well!
From the looks of the radar this baby may already be taking an early turn north.
The radar is exploding.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW OUT FOR JKL CWA
oh btw the NWS has free warnings and watches sent out to text messages you all can sign up here http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov
right now its in beta but seems to be a great program and beats the paid services
Winter Storm Warning up now for most of eastern KY including London!
How does one Hoist a winter weather advisory ??
ahhh…winter storm warnings..SNOW!! HEAVY AT TIMES!!..4-10″ !!!…does it get much better than that..especially for an area that hasnt had a forecast like that in YRS.!!!!!…NOW WE WAIT…TIC TOC TIC TOC…!!!!!!!!!!!
ROLO GET UP YOU LAZY BUM!!!!!!!! GET THE COFFEE ROLLIN!!! THE GRITS AND GRAVY FRYIN….:)
Let the countdown begin!! 😀
well hopefully will get to see how the truck does in the snow using 4×4 for the 1st time since i have had it
Haven’t figured that one out yet either. LOL!
yeah countdown to see how long the rain lasts before it turns to snow..:(<
Folks east of I 75 are about to get a serious snowstorm. I am VERY jealous.
and you should be cause mine is gonna be bigger than yours 😉 but i’m sure you will prob win out come Christmas storm if there is one
i have this wierd feeling that these totals everyone is going with(even chris are similar to everyone elses) are wrong. as in these totals will be higher. its just a gut feeling
Goodmorning Chris & bloggers
I’m jealous that Chris was eating a BOURBON PECAN PIE last night!
Lets get the sleds slicked up, the hot cocoa or coffee, the eggs, gravy & busicuits going, don’t forget the sausage too!!
6z slams East of I-75 this weekend, the bad news, Christmas storm has turned into rain the last 2 runs (Lakes Cutter) Hopefully it changes in the next few runs. Good thing we have 156 hrs of flip flopping to work with! I think we need to hunt BILLY THE GOAT he has jenxed it! lol 😉
I think we all will be surprised by either how little we get or how much we get big difference between 6 and 20 inches
i agree. but im just thinking for some reason im gunna get 6 inches(in frankfort) and south east ky is gunna get like 16-20. we shall see!
Oh how lovely that would be! 🙂
I think rolo is working on that breakfast now, havent heard a word outta of him all morning….
i will be soo jealous if that happens, i may just have to drive out there lol.
I like the NAM snowfall map that chris has on this post…I like it ALOT…because it has 12″ of snow forecasted for my back yard of course 🙂
we are on the border of 20+ as well Timmy
Morning fellow weather freaks! LOoks like it is on for someone anyway. Chris, I DO like that we are now drawn in the 6 inch category! IF that pans out, I will GLADLY take it! ANd I keep hopin’ that the WSW will edge over one more county, and include us, too!
Everyone be safe out there, and enjoy! I am sure we will all be here frequesntly today, I know I will!
Well, I’m getting ready. 🙂 Food, drinks, supplies, kerosene, candles, etc. are ready to go! I’m afraid we might be without electricity when this heavy snow starts putting weight on the power lines tonight and tomorrow.
I’ll be here a lot today, tonight, and tomorrow! 🙂 (If I have electricity).
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
I HAVE BEEN BEAVER HUNTING GETTING MY BELLY FULL FOR THIS RUN THRU NEXT WEEK
TIMMY!!!
now man look at that precip wall. I think it going to be even BIGGER THAN NAM SHOWING if we can get the evap cooling sooner.
man look at that RADAR!!!
That would be nice for Frankfort!!! I’ll take 3 inches — anything more would just be FUN!!! 🙂 Merry Christmas everyone!
temps has already slowly been dropping here
JKL must hate Pulaski Co….LOL… They’re giving Laurel Co. 4-7″..but over here best they can do is 2-4″…BOOOO!!!!!
I agree with Chris, since it is what I said yesterday afternoon:) “5-6 inches in far east with higher amounts in the mountains” (This was the composite result of the models- not a guess).
Still, I think the cut off may dissapoint a LOT of people, since it will probably be very sharp. I stick to my guns from yesterdsay where I think this system is either going to nail a good chunk of KY or almost miss it completely, except for the far east.
My warped logic is that if this system starts shifting west, it is going to get sucked into the pattern and feef more that way as the system progresses. It will either do that or as I suggested already, be a very sharp cut off.
Either way, far east KY gets some action, but question is will anyone else beyond an inch or two?
Jackson says
THE NAM IS A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH BY 18Z SATURDAY THAN THE GFS AND ALSO FURTHER
AMPLIFIES IT MORE AS IT MAKES IT TO THE DELMARVA AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
BELIEVE THAT MUCH OF THESE DISCREPANCIES STEM FROM THE DIFFERENCE IN
RESOLUTION AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE SOLUTION FROM
THE NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS RATHER THAN THE ONES FROM THE COARSER
GFS AND ECMWF. IN ADDITION…THE NAM SPECIFICS ARE MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND AMPLIFICATION
OF THE SFC LOW. FOR SUNDAY…EAST KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AND EXTENSIVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE NATION.
Are temps supposed to be dropping throughout the day?
well BUBBA im not a rocket scientist but even ray charles can seethat radar and it aint missing, if anything it is indeed moving furth west.
just look at the radar and sat loop.
A lot of that isn’t hitting the ground rolo.
but i m sorry bubba, i think u are right it actually the main shield look to scooting more east, alot of this leading stuff is verga, so its important that when it starts we get a quick change over or it will be a bust as far as snowfall goes. unless it explodes as the dsturbance comes on in.
seriously im worried folks.
gone till work see ya guys round 7 or so
just study the satlite/radar loop and u can see it moving quick and folks by the time ewvening rolls around UNLESS the disturbance blows things up we aint going see alot.
GFS & NAM are looking the more “stable” based on the cycles of each model. CB is smart as usual choosing the composite of the models.
“Nailed is a relative term, so the NAM I guess would be “nailed” in this case.
This system has “extreme” written on it, so we know how volatile that can be-anywhere from a lot, to nothing;)
BTW: Be careful what you wish for. People that get more than six inches of this heavy stuff may lose there power:
1. Soft ground for wet summer & fall
2. Weakened poles and trees from the ice storm.
temp. here in knox co. is 34* so it wont take much evap. cooling to push it on down if heavy precip starts…OHHH-YEAH!!!!!
Heavy milky cloud cover, 34*…a little hazy…JUST RIGHT FOR A SMACK-DOWN WET SNOWSTORM…maybe we’ll get alittle thunder/lightning in there as well..just for the heck of it…LOL…
Hah you kill me, in a period of about 5 minutes you went from even Ray Charles could see it was trending west to Seriously folks Im worried. Are you drunk? lol
no my buddy rolo isnt drunk…didnt you know??? i thought everyone knew…sheeeesh I cant believe you didnt know !!….KNOW WHAT????…LOL…
ROLO has a split personality,,,shhhh dont tell anyone though ok..you know billy the goat, well thats his bad side. and sometimes it just pops out while he is rolo…:)…other than that he’s all good…
I am just thinking this will be more of an “all or nothing” situation. Just like 98, the system started trending west and then got sucked into the flow of west to northeast track. Again, as I mentioned the other day, a sign of the westerly trend requires no radar- just see whcih way the wind is blowing. If the wind / rain is coming mainly from the west- the system is being drawn in. If not- sharper cut-off.
Not seeing how this system will be a “tweener”, but CB’s current estimate is as good as it gets right now.
BACK BILLY !!! BACK !!!!…CURSE YOU BILLY!!!! GET OUT OF ROLO…
ROLO….COME BACK…ITS ME TIMMY…CAN YOU H-E-A-R M-E ? ? ? ?…
BubbaCast is always safe and conservative, He’d make a good worker for the Louisville NWS working with the GRINCH! Which he’d probably be 90% more accurate then the others. 😉
COUGH…COUGH… SICK DAY…:)
no worries rolo…even knoxville tn.. is exp. 1-4″..so when the valley floor of east tn. is forecasting accum..we have no worries here…we usually double what they get in any given storm…
and speaking of knoxville, rain has begun to fall in the area down there inching its way north, but it is also 40* down there as well, it will be interesting what falls when it gets here if it hurrys before we get to much warmer…sitting at 35* now…so we shall see…
Our temp here in Bath Co just went up in the last hour. My desktop alert says 36 and my weather channel says 33. So who knows!
Gonna be a lot of wishful eyes in Lexington looking east tomorrow.
I am worried for the Lex metro area. I think EKY is in good shape to get a pretty good snow, but I think west of Richmond could be a miss.
I don’t like how the radar is trending in a slight NE pattern and it seems to be moving a little quicker than expected. I’m afraid the main precip shield will arrive earlier than expected with temps still well above freezing.
I’m saying an inch or less for the Lex area. Enjoy it EKY because we are going to have a miss here in this area.
Madison County – Berea
Cloudy
35.8°
Well, at least where I grew up is in the cross hairs. Martin County looks like it could get a foot of snow.
Temps. statewide are all over the place. Really strange stuff. For instance, 5 degrees difference between Lexington and Frankfort. Odd. But, generally we are all in the 30s and RH is running in the 80-90% range. So I would think this stuff will be hitting the ground very soon.
I’ll tell you something else too, if you look at the IR satellite channel and view the contiguous U.S. image….it sure does appear that the low is starting to track slightly farther westward than the modeling predicted. Looks like it’s going to track through southern AL to me…
CB’s forecast is solid. I suggested yesterday that the GFS and NAM’s composite seemed the best option and that is what CB is suggesting today, but with real science behind his decision:)
“Miss” is not a fair word, since it is in relation to a “big” snow. A few inches is better than nothing:)
Watch out IF this puppy trends west- all bets off then, as well as some people’s power.
I just searched google and viewed some returns from the 1998 dusting as it started and it is almost identical to what radar is showing now, except the radar now is showing heavier precip…..the only bad thing is i hope this isn’t getting here too early and atmosphere can’t cool fast enough to produce snow, but it looks like PLENTY of precip coming toward our area and if it continues to blow up we will have time to get the changeover tonight hopefully….but the best thing would be for dynamic cooling to take place
I’m from London too and heading down in the morning for Mom’s Christmas…gonna be interesting. Have the 4-wheel drive gassed up and ready!
WoooooWhoooooooo!!!!!!
See the thing I’m worried about is that the storm rushes through here with more rain than snow.
ok NW SIDE starting to inhance and backbuild, thats a GREST SIGN. man i just took 3 xanax so i chill out.
sorry if i act foolish guys, just i little worried is all.
sorry guys i just a little worried, but look like it is inhancing oin the NW SIDE which is a great thing, once we get precip it will change over withing a hour or so today.
i took 3 xanax just now so i would calm down and relax.
TOMCAT and Bailey CAT have their bellys full and are awaiting as well.
moderation, arggg anyway i took sum xanax and calm down its starting to inhance on NW SIDE and disturbance is poping too, i think it TIME!!!
The net trend appears to be drawing more east, but still early.
Too early for me to say that, since it IS early.
The worst thing Chris said was “dusting”. Now everyone has hopes of waking up tomorrow morning to 18 inches of snow. When, in fact, the vast majority of us not in far Eastern Kentucky will still be able to see the blades of grass in our yards in the morning.
There is a lot of disappointment coming.
Average trend is not conclusive, since the system will favor some easterly flow and the system is of course heading to the north east.
Need a few more hours to obtain a real trend (duh).
Not to get hopes up, but the NAM map above could play out.
Folks
I told you guys this is going to be rain in Knox whitley London, Corbin, ect.
u guys missed it. hey rolo way to flip flop.
Big difference in a week ago, when it wasn’t even touching Ky, gotta love that westerly trend SOMETIMES! 😀
The southern storm is already feeding the northern clipper and I think its starting to dig in. Pressure down 1015 – 1012 Also, gotta love that NE high pressure being stubborn.
The southern storm looks to be heading for a direct path to Wilmington. Which does lineup with the warnings in NC. Interesting.. I think its gonna head a little more to west when it makes that north turn.
Looking at the new NAM, 850 temps stay below freezing for most in Eastern Kentucky. Just wonder how much rain we actually see out of this as the NAM is not showing much rain to start.
Sitting steady at around 30* here. Bring on the snow!
Only bad news is the Christmas storm. Not only has the GFS made it a lakes cutter but other models are following as well.
Get a move on cold air and turn this nasty rain to snow!
12z NAM backs up the above NAM snow totals like Bubba already mentioned. The NAM isn’t backing down. WOW!
Chris’s Twitter quote:
Winter storm ready to bring HEAVY snow to CENTRAL & EASTERN KY – 35 mins ago.
If anything, the 12Z NAM is HEAVIER with snowfall. It paints more in the LEX area too.
Man….if the low would just go 50 miles farther west than the NAM track, and if dynamic cooling would really kick in, we’d all be totally dumped on!
I totally agree with you!! I’m so hoping a 50 mile LIVE LOW tracking then what the models are saying.
We could get a good result from this system:)
Traveling tonight could be a real bummer if you have to be out:(
As far as next week’s event chance, the models for this system looked weak at this point too;)
anybody getting in precip yet, id say it be when the darker green get here before it starts.
post link to 12z nam please if possible
anybody getting in precip yet, id say it be when the darker green get here before it hits.
twemp risen from 34 to 38 in under a hour as well.
no rain falling yet here in the no snow zone of Pulaski Co.
look t the HEvAVIER PRCIP AT BORDER THAT WILL MOOIST UP THE AIR, also look at radar loop on bailey blog the precip is now training and not moving east, that a GREAT SIGN FOLKS!! I THINK WE FINALLY ARE GOING TO GET IT.
the disturbance also catching up to west.mmmmmmmmmm hrereee u at TIM dont be snoozing on me, it up till thae last flake quits!!!
KNOXVILLE TN…reporting rain/sleet..temp. went from 40 to 36…hmmmm… COME ON SNOW!!!
oh and to the FAKE BILLY THE GOAT, god luv my dead billy goat u sir are not a jinx. u are a welll a.
TOMCAT and Bailey cat are this winter ANIMAL CASTER!!WOOOOOOOOOOOOO
come with a update CBC
Good evening, love the outlook, but hoping for totals to rise in Monticello. Let it snow let it snow!!! Thx Chris.
its TIME TIMMY look and middle tenn heavy precip that is training to ne and that will continue, its going to be a OLD SCHOOL BABY!!!
i say a hour at most after it reaches ground before we go to snow.
U.S. 441 over the smokey mnts.. is already closed for the impending storm..
12z nam may convince chris to bring the lines west, we’ll see. as for the christmas storm yesturday all of the models but ukmet had a low along the gulf coast for christmas eve today is reversed with what I’m naming a grinch track( lakes cutter) for this storm.
Ole rolo, you good for nuttin flip flopper. Keep calling names. At least now I know I’m dealing with a 10-year-old. It’s going to rain on your parade today.
light rain has just started here in knox co. Barbourville..
12z nam would give lexington atleast 6”
lmk did mention more snow than is forecast was def possible in lex, this thing is going to be interesting to watch play out.
WHY AREN’T THE NWS WFO’S GIVING US ANY UPDATES?? It’s lunchtime and no AFD updates, nothing. Oh well. I still think the low looks like it’s going slightly farther west than predicted…
WOW!!!! look at the THUMPIN the GFS is giving east tn. and south east ky.. in this 12hr… run
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_012m.gif
These models will change for the Christmas storm after we get snow on the ground. They are not taking in the data that this weather event. It will play a big role in what happens next week.
yep light rain here tim tyemps drop 2 degrees, it begun,
now we need it tevap quick!!!
does anyone know if lewis county will get hit hard out of this storm? i`ve been receiving different totals. i need a little info up here. can someone please help? buckle up, looks like some people are in for a wild ride. later, paula t. from lewis county
does anyone know if lewis county will get hit hard out of this storm? i`ve been receiving different totals. i need a little info up here. can someone please help? buckle up, looks like some people are in for a wild ride. later, paula t. from lewis county
does anyone know if lewis county will get hit hard out of this storm? i`ve been receiving different totals. i need a little info up here. can someone please help? buckle up, looks like some people are in for a wild ride. later, paula t. from lewis county
Light drizzle in Somerset now @ 11:02 AM EST offically it’s 40 degrees here.
VERY tight cutoff to qfp though could be a situation where just 20 or 30 miles away you have 5-6” and 20-30 miles west nothin.
latest nam brings up to 8” to parts of lexington area all of east ky gets 10”+ according to this run, 12z gfs snow map not out yet. below is the link to view nam snowfall
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
I got a steady light rain, low clouds, fog…temp. has actually went up to 39* but that was right before the rain started, and Im using the mesonet site in knox co…
cant believe CBC not fired up and updating, heck hwe can sleep when we die.lol
would someone please post the latest nam runn… what is everyones thoughts for the lexington area?
CHRIS TWEET UPDATE:
some new information suggests heavy snow of 6″ may make it as far west as lex. metro…!!!update coming soon..
woot woot look at Chris new tweet!!!!!
Well according to his tweet…looks like folks west of Lexington may get in on it too!
were not gunna really know whats gunna happen until this takes the turn north.
I know one thing the temp. profile is driving me NUTS!! what in the world!! up to 41* now with light rain, not the direction I wanna see the thermometer go!!!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
thats 6-8” for a chunk of lexington
it going take HEAVY PRCIP to get the evap going tim, it be late afternoon before any snow inm afraid and that worries me.
Hey all… i thought we would have a temp drop as the precic stated, but they are going up! The cold air is eat of the mountains, look at black mountain, 36 even up there still… this is not going to cahnage over IMHO until late tonight… Boone NC has been snow since the precip started.. even with a 34-35 degree temp!!
dewpoint is 33* and air temp. is 41*…sooooooo…UGH!!! I hate waiting…LOL….:)
me too ole buddy but the heavier prcip about here,
so not to long hopefully.
Boys the Low is still in the Gulf of mexico, or just entering over land so this precip shield is HUGE out ahead of this thing, you all will have precip before the low gets her and until the low actually goes by so you have alot of time, actually the better it will be the later in the day because the air should start cooling later on rather than now the middle of the day…..you all just share with us over here in campbellsville because we ain’t had 6 inches in 7 years….move it west move it west
we got to get that in middle teen up here to cool the air, light rain stop here because still too dry.
How much impact will that system to the West of us have? It seems to be catching up.
Yes temps. are going up up and away! That is the big fly in the ointment that will keep snow accumulation way down. We discussed that yesterday…looks like we go into the 40s today and that is bad news for snowfall.
well rain has picked up in intensity in the past 5 minutes…temp. up another degree to 42*..:(
I AGREE 100%…because every degree it goes up, just that much longer to get it back down, and then its tic-toc..the snow mouse fell out of the clock..:(
This is a monster storm!!
Thanks to WXman..
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=EVV&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
Madison County – Berea
Cloudy
38.8 – Rising
Halelujah! (I think I spelt that wrong) lol
C’mon models…bring the 6 inch area back to Lawrenceburg! Only like 20 more miles…
This keeps gettin better and better 🙂
FINALLY !!! we topped out I hope.. going down now.. went up to 42* at 11:30, now down to 40*
Burnsville, North Carolina WEBCAM
http://highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_Burnsville.htm
RADAR just exploded over southern,and eastern tn..thats rotating in this direction…
It has started to drizzle rain here in Hustonville. Temperature is holding at 40*.
What time would I expect snow south of Lexington along I-75?
knoxville reporting heavy rain,fog 38* with visability under 2 miles..
rain continues to pick up in intensity here in knox co. as well…temp. setting right at 40*
New blog post by chris is up
UPDATE UP!!!
That’s great that we are able to receive the mortgage loans moreover, this opens up new chances.