Good Tuesday evening gang. Our big storm is coming in for the next few days and we will touch on that in greater detail later tonight. I am keeping watch on this Saturday and a possible snow maker heading up the east coast of the US. The GFS models are both in flip flop mode as every other run brings snow far enough west to put some on the ground… especially in the east.
The 6z runs this morning were most aggressive while the 12z runs went east. The 18z runs both brought the snow back west…
Current GFS Saturday Afternoon
New GFS Saturday Afternoon
Current GFS Snowfall
I want to stress once again that the models didn’t even see this system until Monday morning so they are still getting a handle on it. We shall see what happens with it as far as the track goes. My gut tells me this turns out stronger and a bit farther west. We shall see.
Have a great evening and I will update tonight. Take care.
Select Page
My gut says:
After 10+ years of watching these storms pass us by, I am not getting over excited…
I will stick to my forecast of a repeat of last Dec., Cold & Dry for the most part…
However, I see January being a different animal..! We could go into a deep freeze early 2010 and stay there for several days… With an active southern jet stream, it only takes one and all the heartache of the past 10+ years will end… We shall see, But I like our snow chances MUCH better in January, (especially early January), then I do December…
A side note to all Pet owners:
If you have outside pets, make sure they have plenty of food, water and shelter during the upcoming cold snaps… Be sure to check their water often, because it will freeze…
You could always do what I do and let your puppy sleep with ya’…lol
Max is a great snuggler..!!!
Go STEELERS..!
CB:
Why do lengthy comments always go into moderation..??
Frustrating…
Come On Chris’s Gut 😉
Thanks for the update Chris. I am excited about the possibilities.
Hey Chris, Thanks for keeping a trained eye on this storm. I heard about the possibility of it this morning. I’m happy that it could happen on a weekend when I don’t have to go to work. I hope any snow this winter is like that. BTW, I live just north of Beckley, but you’re blog is a helpful and accurate guide for the weather here as well.
nobody wants to read the lengthy ones anyways 😛 J/K Vinny
Hey Vinny, I’ve had that happen before. I started double spacing after a sentence or so and it seems to work.
It hasn’t gone into moderation when I do that, even if it is long.
Quote from Rolo:
“Vinny look like the players are turning on BIG BEN after this weekends deal. whats up?”
It’s just the frustrations of a championship team on a 3 game losing streak… They will be fine…
Our schedule favors us the rest of the way and I can see us winning out and finishing 11-5..
Will that be enough to get into the playoff’s..? We shall see…
GO STEELERS..!
I hear ya’ Andrew…..LOL
…
Huge ring around the moon tonight, my great-grandma always said it was a sign of snow in the coming days….I know thats not the scientific reason for it, but I LIKE HER VERSION BETTER, and it has proven to happen in yrs. past…lol…
………………….
So here’s to Chris’s gut feeling, and my great-grandma’s theory of moon rings and snow!!!!….lol…
Thanks Chris for all the updates you give us. Not to mention all the hard work you do.
Is this storm suppose to linger on into next week?
what do the euro and can models think about this system?
When the moonlight strikes ice crystals at 27 degrees angle it forms a halo in the sky. Perfect example out there tonight. Its gorgeous. I wish I could remember the proper name for this but I’m drawing a blank…
I always thought it was called “the halo effect”…lol
yea Vinny not rednecking u all, hell u got room for a bad season just thought it was interesting hearing players talk after sundays game is all.
I dont think BIG BEN will last to much longer myself, took alot of hits and his style of play will only lead to more HEAD licks.
left,left aa left,leftleft.
yep folks the trends 99 percent of the time is to come futher west as we get closer. so it looking good right now for us SNOW GEESE in EAST/SE KY for weekend.
can I hear a AMEN!!! I cant get DON IMUS out of my head right now, when he goes on his Jesus type rants. FEEL THE POWER!! AMEN!! WOOOOOOOOOOOO
They will be fine if big ben and troy get back in the line up. I think they can handle being without troy better than big ben. Dixon killed the steelers sunday night. With big ben in the line up that game would have been no contest.
I am also pulling for Chris’s gut although that gut is smaller than in years past. Way to go CB you are doing great.
just watch the WRESTLER and man GREAT MOVIE!!!
or moon arc or something. lol
Tim, I always heard that it was a sign of wet weather….rain in summer, and snow in winter…so, since the rain is due to hit us tomorrow, and them turn colder, I guess it could be considered as a good sign. At least we are going to keep a good thought! 😀
(I am just happy to hear the “S” word in the forecast.)
Because hot air keeps the snow away, Vinny. LOL J/K
EURO looks decent too,
my grandpa always called them “icebows” – obviously not the scientific name
I know you’re not red-necking…lol
I agree with you about Big Ben… He can not take that kind of abuse much longer…
I disagree with you about the SNOW chance this week…lol
We-ARE——-KEN-TUCKY….!
Sorry, a little Marshall reference there….lol
nam radar at 84 hr, snow spreading over much of the region. still need a western shift for bwg and lex.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_084l.gif
It all goes together! Number of comments goes up, chances of snow goes up. Hope it works out.
Only about 50-100 miles farther west…Thats all I ask for! 🙂
I am still bumfuzzled over what happen Saturday nite, I am not sure joker is the man to take over the job.
I will never understand taking Cobb out from under center there.
cirriform clouds.
Did the same thing against SC…and lost…
Did the same thing against Miss St…and lost…
funny really…. makes no sense…
Almost like Joker is “over thinking” something simple…
let it stay right where it is
I see allot of people saying elnio is holding strong and they think now that this winter is gonna be warm and very little snow. Well i hope not. Ive had allot of hope for this winter but seems like as we get closer to it im starting to wonder. i hope your thoughts on this winter is right chris cause we sure need a big snow here in east ky. or i think so any way lol
I saw my friend post about this on Facebook, and was pleasantly surprised when I took a look for myself. It is beautiful!!!! DH tried to catch it on two different cameras, but it couldn’t get the ring.
P.S. I like your great-grandma’s reasoning on this as well. 🙂
Info from the internet ‘A ring around the moon brings rain or snow’. Another similar saying is, ‘When the moon is in her house, rain or snow will come’. When the moon has a halo or a ring around it, this is due to cirrus clouds in the higher altitudes. Cirrus and cirrostratus clouds typically proceed low pressure systems bearing moisture. These clouds also contain ice crystals which refract the light giving the impression of a ring. By counting the number of stars contained within the ring, you can fairly accurately predict how far away the rain or snow will be. Eac stat represents approximately 24 hours of time.
0z went a touch more to the west?
Madison County – Berea
STARRY COLD NIGHT with FULL HALO MOON
36.7°
The Halo moon is very cool looking, can’t remember ever seeing anything like that before..
The battle has begun 6z west 12z east 18z west 0z east. The waffling will continue I just checked out the JMA and it also is now showing support for our Saturday system showing eastern ky getting a healthy dose of snow. Something tells me just like the last storm for Wednesday we were looking at a track that could have gone east of the app. mountains and now is projected to scoot throught eastern kentucky. A shift of a good 100 miles or so to the west is what I am predicting with eastern ky picking up 3-6 inches and from a line from bowling green to frankfort east including LEX 1-3 inches isolated spots with 4 inches. Thats my first call lets see how it holds up…
Tyson. Mitch. Wxman. MJ. Any expert
Please explain the track that would bring central KY best snows. I hear, EAST of the apps, eastern KY gets snow (does central get it as well with that track) West of the apps (we get rain)…What determines the best track for central KY to get snow?
In the case for Saturday the low will most definitely track east of the mountains. This is not our typical snow producer however as of now the low is projected to ride up the east coast line this is just a system with a lot of moisture and will be helped by the Gulf of Mexico as well. Ideal track for a statewide snowfall for Saturday would be for the low to track through the carolinas. Ideal track of the low would be approximately 150-200 miles west of where the 0z GFS has it going. This is a map of the predicted snowfall for this weekend. As of right now Kentucky would get clipped with the storm and the mid-atlantic would get the brunt of it. So basically take this map and move it 200 miles west add in some more moisture from the gulf and it could get very interesting around here. All ifs though this storm could easily go out to sea and leave Kentucky dry. My gut feeling tells me though the westerly track will continue on the models at least somewhat especially seeing some of the other models giving support to the system. As some still aren’t sold including the CMC.
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
I’m sure I may have it wrong or someone can better explain it then I can. Its not all about the tracking as it is for the northern Polar Jet to hookup with the Southern Tropical Jet. The Polar Jet brings the colder air and the southern tropical Jet will bring the moisture, we need a weak open surface low to hook up and deepens as the cold air pushes in as the moisture pushes in at the same time. A zonal flow or a deep troph usually isn’t a good setup for us to get snow. A zonal flow most often is over ran by warmer air of the southern tropical jet. Kentucky has been the battleground for COLD & WARMER temps in the last 10+ years with our famous COLD RAINS due mostly to zonal flow patterns. As the COLD leaves, we get the moisture or vise versa. A deep eastern troph, usually a sign of artic air with no moisture to work with or we get stuck with the left overs from the great lakes clippers. Usually that means we get ALL COLD & DRY. A very dense artic troph will push the southern tropical jet out to sea.
Tracking plays a part when we are in a certain pattern, most often the west side of a track has the snow, since thats where the cold air is located, hence, the east side is where the warm is placed.
I feel that when we do get a snowstorm, it won’t be on the models, it will be one of them dusting surprises that the models won’t see until its already in the works! I love watching the models, but I don’t put too much trust in any of them, they are really good for thunderstorms, but they ain’t that good for snowstorms, hard to predict in the exact location where the COLD and MOISTURE will get together, but they will let us know when a low or storm is going to be near us.
Hope that helps some.
This is a map of the predicted snowfall for this weekend. As of right now Kentucky would get clipped with the storm and the mid-atlantic would get the brunt of it. So basically take this map and move it 200 miles west add in some more moisture from the gulf and it could get very interesting around here. All ifs though this storm could easily go out to sea and leave Kentucky dry.