Good Tuesday everyone. We are now into the month of November meaning that the clock is now running on what is known as meteorological winter. Met winter is runs from today through February and is what all winter records and averages are based upon. Almost right on cue… winter is ready to step into the spotlight across much of the country over the next few weeks.
The blog has talked about this step down process for a while now and we will see a big step into winter coming this week as our temps come way down to go along with a couple of snow chances before the weekend is over. 
Let’s get right to the forecast…
– Today looks sunny but chilly. Some areas will even start things out with a touch of freezing fog this morning and this may cause a few slick spots on roads so be careful. Temps will rise from the 20s this morning into the upper 40s this afternoon.
– Wednesday will see a big low pressure system rolling in from the south. A cold rain will overspread the region from south to north. Winds will crank as well. Rains will be locally heavy at times with some areas picking up an inch plus. Temps will stay in the 40s for much of the day then rise into the 50s during the early evening hours… especially the farther east and south you live. This happens as low pressure moves right on top of us…
“New” GFS Wednesday Afternoon
That will be a windy storm system as well! As the low quickly passes to our northeast… much colder air will bleed in Wednesday night into early Thursday…
GFS Thursday Morning
Snow showers and flurries will be with us Thursday with temps holding in the 30s. Winds will make it feel colder than that.
– Friday will be a cold day with the chance for some leftover flurries or a stray snow shower. Highs will struggle to the freezing mark.
– The forecast for Saturday will be a tricky one because of what looks to be another system rolling out of the deep south and running up the east coast. How strong is this system and how far west can it come? The stronger and farther west… the better the chance this produces snow around here. The weaker it is… the better chance the snow stays to our south and east. The new GFS continues to bring snow into parts of the region Saturday…
That will be interesting to watch unfold as the models only started picking up on this Yesterday.
Beyond that… cold remains locked in for the weekend into early next week. Keep an eye on Monday as we may see some overrunning wintry precip early in the week ahead of what should be another big storm. I am not even going to get in on speculating about that one just yet!
Winter is here and you should all be very happy campers before all is said and done 3 months from now!
I will update later today so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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Thanks Chris…. Sounds very intriging!
Boyle County- 28* That forcast doesn’t look as promising as earlier, so goes the weather. We can’t get everything we wish for.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
While I do agree the pattern looks quite stacked over the next few weeks… I’m not exactly sure if I’m sold on the development of that second low for Saturday. I’m not exactly sure I buy that more inland solution, I like how the 0z Euro handled it taking it up the coast. As with all things we shall see, but I hope for everyones sake we get some snow soon.
ohh snow no snow, who cares its DECEMBER 1st, and we already have had action in the possibilty range.
I have woke up for another day of living, got 3 or 4 dollars in my pocket, my heat bill been paid and well my ole horse is feeling his oats this morning from all acoounts.
hoping to get him to track in by January if all goes well.
That’s the thickest frost I’ve seen here in a long time.
Thanks Chris for the update.
Looking like the GFS is wanting to make Saturday really interesting.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Madison County – Berea
Frosty
30°
6z GFS is farther west and brings snow to central and eastern KY Saturday. It shows 4+ inches fo extreme eastern parts of the state. We will see if it’s a trend!
bring it on !!! I cant stand the thoughts of it snowing in HOUSTON TX.!! and NEW ORLEANS LA.!! AGAIN!! and not here…:(
NOW Bernie, that snowfall map looks a whole lot better than the one you showed yesterday…I’ll take 3-4″ of snow for the 1st wk. of Dec.. WE can hope, but its like most of us are poor, and wishing for a BMW or MERCEDES for Christmas…and that AINT HAPPENING!!…lol.. so those kinda Christmas lists are like our snowfall forecast maps…NOT HAPPENING..but who knows this could be the yr.
** watch out for ice this morning **
alot of ice in the Barbourville area, one accident already around my kids school this morning..
Knox County, KY
Barbourville 3 E 28º
8:00 am EST
Dewpoint: 27ºF
Humidity: 98%
Precipitation: 0.00 in. (SINCE 12AM)
Wind: NNE at 1 mph
yep as yesterday afternoon post said,
CB against the world!!! and by last nite it look better as several was jumping on board. as we all know if the storm develop as model was showing it would trend west as we get closer.
oh no the JINX just hit us straight in the NOGGIN, HENRY at ACCU has his area of snow for weekend up and u guessed it we are in it.lol
man look good, but lets hold the westward trend to a minimum please.
yep 3 inches is a HUGE EVENT for first of december round here TIM.
would be a great start to the year that the pattern change to the good for us snow luvers.
yea and its CHECKER DAY, AKA first ofmonth too people are foolish running to the post office to go blow that money.
I was just getting ready to post the same thing..LOL…mad man henry showing a widespread 3+ snowfall from central Tx. to Birmingham Al. to Nashville Tn. then up through east Ky. and up through West Va.. SO WE SHALL SEE…
yep the PATRIOTS are done, never more. their run is over and that ewas obvious last nite.
it costed me 200 dollars to figure it out.lol
I still like the Vikings over the Saints because of their defense, but man what a game that is going to be Vikings vs Saints.
Vinny look like the players are turning on BIG BEN after this weekends deal. whats up?
man look good, but lets hold the westward trend to a minimum please.
My thoughts exactly Rolo. Maybe this new GFS has it figured out.
And I hate to say it, but checker day is more dangerous than ice days on the roads. I drove from Georgetown to London and back with no issues overnight.
I was just checking the radar in parts of Texas, Lubbock Tx. reporting Heavy Snow/Fog and 33*…Now would’nt it be nice to be right in the middle of that…ahhhh
I just read yet another Winter outlook, this time based out of Atlanta, GA, that calls for a harsh Winter..particularly the second half..with more snow and ice than average. He also discussed the split-flow pattern and the trouble numerical models have dealing with it.
Here is a streaming cam out of the Lubbock/Midland Tx. area of the snow.
http://www.basinbroadband.com/webcam/hobbskperhigh.htm
I got off at 11:00 last night and was surprised how heavy it was on my car window already. I’m rethinking this winter thing. I forgot I’ll have to scrap (or brush snow hopefully) every night before I can go home! LOL!
Meaning one more for Louisville and nothing for us! Ugh!
*WINTER STORM WARNING* for TEXAS!!!!!! :0 I need to move back home lol. I”m in the wrong state for snow! lol
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lubbock&state=TX&site=LUB&textField1=33.5759&textField2=-101.875&e=0
But I couldn’t do that I love you guys too much! 🙂
We could all move ‘chelle! We may have too! By the way, I’ve already been doing the elf yourself thing! LOL!
12z GFS flopped hard to the east and doesn’t develop the 2nd low in the gulf at all. Let the model madness commence! 😛
well that figures!!!…not suprising in the least, in fact i actually kinda expected it…because the previous run was too good to be true…LOL…MADNESS BEGINS !!
Sounds like we are in for some winter type weather and temps, for sure! Well, it is getting closer to the holidays, so this is perfect! Waiting to see what the weekend system does, and what your thoughts turn out to be about next week….
Thanks, Chris!
well J.B. at accu is saying SNOW for HOUSTON, maybe on the ground !!! snow in LOUISIANA,even flying in NEW ORLEANS !!!!..while we sit and bite our nails, and pull our hair while once again a snow system may go to our south and east…:( 🙁
……………………
alright ladies…namely ummm chelle,chas,and shawna if this happens your weather dude jim cantore will be plastered all over the weather channel if it starts snowing in Atlanta..LOL..LOL…:P
Nothing frosts me more (no pun intended 🙂 ) then when TX, AL, TN and any other state south of us get snow and we get cold rain! How does that happen that it’s cold enough for snow there and not here?
WEll the NWS in Jackson has even took out the chance of snowshowers and flurries for thursday in their discussion now…
………….
THE DOWNSLOPING WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION…HOWEVER THE FORCING WILL BE TOO GREAT AND
EVEN IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING AREAS WILL GET MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
BACKED OFF OF THE SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT DUE TO LACK OF
ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME DRIZZLE BEHIND
THE FRONT.
This page is intersting from ole Henry. scroll down and he has a snow map over us esp eastern Ky for the weekend,oh we can hope lol.
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=meteomadness
The “new” and “old” GFS both take that low way out to sea. wow.
Okee Dokee!! Looks like regardless of what forecast is right or wrong… we are in for some interesting times of anticipation this season! Here’s hoping for snow and plenty of it! Oh… and Tommy… they put some white stuff on the slopes at P.N.S. last night!!!
Let’s hope the anticipation is not ALL we get! Trying (being the key word) to stay positve though!
HAHA!
I forget who sang the song but I think it was called DeJaVu.
LOL MikeM!
today song is
THE TRUTH by Jason Aldean damn good country song
Boyle County- Another balmy day mostly sunny and 52*
Chris, I am taking advantage of today as well and getting a run in before tommorrow’s nastiness gets in here. I try to keep my runs regular when its just cold outside but as far as rain…you can usually count me out. lol…especially if its a cold rain.
Lets all hope for a big westward flip in the 18z GFS runs this evening for Saturdays’s system!
pretty good forecast discussion from the NWS in Jackson..here is there take on the weekend system…
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER…GENERALLY BEGIN WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
BEING ON THE COLDER…NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM…ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS…MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A COLUMN SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW AS
WELL. HOWEVER…FOR YOU SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE…QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
LIGHT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST…ALONG THE
KY/VA STATE LINE. AND THERE EXPECT NOT MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR SO…PROBABLY LESS WITH THE TREND IN THE TRACK BEING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE POLAR JET…SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST…SECOND
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WITH
FAVORED SLOWER SOLUTION…ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
INCREASED FROM THERE. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SECOND SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY…JUST BEYOND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WINDOW. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THAT BEING SAID WE EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN ATTM
…………………
for the entire discussion
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Don’t give up on the Sat storm cuz the GFS is trending east on 1 run.. How many times we watch it right up to 8-24 hr then it pull to the west to give us rain? If it pans out on Saturday then we can say the GFS is really reliable on 108 hr. Cough!! BS! Cough!! 🙂
18z should be back to the westerly trend, then 0z should go back to the easterly trend.. that will be like that til around Friday, we all know how it flip flops!!!! lol
I think the GFS is really pushing the artic air WAYYY to southeast.. but I’m just a amateur when it comes to the weather!!! 😉
On a NEGATIVE thought.. any time Accuweather gives us snow, it WILL NOT happen!!!! 😀
too hot to fish, to hot for golf and tooooooo coooollllld at home………..
I only planned on 1 or 2ewww, i may stay for 3, if that good looking thing in da corner keeps smilliinnng back at me…
You might not be no meteorologist Bernie but you did call it both the new and old 18z GFS has shifted back further west. Let the WAFFLING begin. Hey Chris I think you should name your next entry something involving WAFFLING. Now lets see what the 0z has to say…
Yep. There it is. 18z gfs coming back west for Sat. Looking forward to Chris’s update.
Bernie, your right about the 18z gfs.
could someone post the 18 z
Hope this helps. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_m.shtml
i think the latyest run actually shifted back further west than this morning run.
let me take a sip off coffee and focus in here.
saturday at best is 1-3” for KY/TN border counties
and that would be a great start to winter for my peeps down in the redneck heaven.
I say 3 be pushing it unless we see more juice get into it.
I myself do think u will se it move more westward as we get closer, we as in SE/E KY are right on the edge right now and if the past winters is any indication we will get it further west as long as the storm develops.
so I am excited bout Saturday in that I like to see a little snow, we can work on OLD SCHOOL later on when we get to actual WINTER.
the Year without Santa is on the Family Channel! Heat Miser vs. Cold Miser! 🙂
Chelle, that is too funny! I hope Chris is getting a chance to see it. If he does, you can be sure to make mention of it. And its also perfect as we see the fight of the maps once again….EURO vs “old” GFS,vs “new” GFS, vs the NAM….
Ah, cold temps will put folk in the holiday spirit..of course, some “kids” like me don’t need alot of help to be there! 😉
18Z run of the “new” GFS still brings a good shot of snow to eastern KY on Saturday. Actually…that might be the kind of snow that makes roads dangerous in the Appalachians.
any snow can make it dangerous but bad drivers make them even more dangerous
let the nw trend continue!!!
I’m trying to figure out how central KY managed to get all those old school storms since (if it goes east of apps) EASTERN KY gets it, west of apps, we get rain.
Tommy you have to quit being a snow hog ;)let me Tim and Coffey have ours for a change
new post by Chris up now!