Good Monday afternoon everyone. Your friendly weather dude is dropping by for a quick update to let you know that if you are not on board with a wintry December… Old Man Winter Will Own You! 
The weather over the next 3 weeks or so has some awesome possibilities in terms of cold and snow. As you know… I have been riding this harsh winter train for many, many months now so I am not a bandwagon jumper.
That said… I see a lot of people out there that are in denial about the overall pattern for the month of December because it doesn’t match up with what their thought process has been all along. That’s cool… stay in denial and let Old Man Winter rough you up a little bit. He is my hatchet man, after all. Plus… the more forecasters in denial… the better it is for blog business. Oh wait… this blog doesn’t make me any money. 
Ok… enough of poking fun at the detractors. Let’s get a quick review of where we stand.
Clouds and a few light showers will continue this afternoon. Winds are gusty and the temps are chilly with low 40s for highs.
The action starts later this week as we have not one… but two… storms that we now have to watch for. The first one has been well advertised and will roll our way Wednesday into Thursday with heavy rain and wind that changes to a period of light snow and snow showers. The second system had my attention Yesterday when looking at the 500mb setup… but I was too wrapped up in the first storm to really think more about it. This system could bring a Saturday surprise and is now fully on the blog’s radar.
Storm number one continues to be well behaved and should track from near New Orleans into eastern Kentucky to near Buffalo from Wednesday Morning into Thursday Morning. Heavy rains and winds will increase around here Wednesday with a nice west to east temp gradient setting up. Cold air moves in Wednesday night with a switch to light snow and snow showers from west to east into Thursday. This has been well covered in recent days so I will spare you.
Another piece of energy dives into our trough Friday spawning low pressure to our south. The “NEW” GFS is most aggressive with this system. Check it…
Friday Night
Saturday Morning
Saturday Afternoon
That is a pretty interesting setup and the question would be just how far west that storm would track. If the GFS model bias is in effect here (not sure about that since this is the new GFS)… then one would expect a farther west track than what it shows. That would happen with cold air already in place around here. Let’s put this one in the “on the radar” category for now.
As far as how next week looks…
December 10-11
Old Man Winter is waiting to own you! Smile and have some fun, folks. Oh yea… take care, too!
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Thanks Chris.. I’m not being a skeptic. I’m just afraid to get my hopes up for fear of jinxing the whole scenario! I want snow even if it’s just flakes flying! The sooner the better!
sleet in nicholasville
Chris, I’ve NEVER been in denial about what this winter season may hold for us!:) I’ve had that gut feeling since Summer that it could hold plenty of nice surprises for KY., and I’ve held onto the feeling, as that is not something that I ever downplay (it usually all plays out for me!).
Thanks again, Chris, for being the guy to go to when it comes to our Wx!:)
I’m glad you cleared that up about the people in denial(wxman).
I’m not going to get as excited about possible storms this year in the hope that it gives us some extra luck in getting some big snows for a change. We are long overdue for a big winter and CB is on top of it.
Boyle County- 44* Brief Heavy Sleet Shower moved thru a few minutes ago. Not a surprise.
I’m not in denial either. It’s just that we heard the song and dance two months ago. OH, and then what followed was one of the warmest, driest months of recent history. Why does everybody blame me anyway?? I didn’t even say “I told you so” and rub it in. I have been cool about it actually.
I’ll tell you what I tell everybody else. Come back in a few weeks and tell me which one of us was in denial. You can wish all you want to for a snowstorm to beat the band and guess what? The weather is still going to do what it’s going to do and nothing more. If we could wish storms and cold into being, you’d all be digging out right now because I’d make it snow like crazy. I love the stuff.
well I for one dont like the storm tracks…everyone through the 12th..(except for the saturday surprise) is tracking up west of the mnts..which puts us in central and east ky. in warm/rainy side of the major moisture..who wants all that cold with no snow to go with it…brrrr, time will tell I guess..maybe we’ll get THE BIG ONE this yr…
you have been cool! about it but CB has been hyped for december and winter in general, in central ky i’d never expect more than flurries for the month anyway.
by month i mean november, we just don’t get november snowstorms here, not since i’ve been in lex anyway (14yrs)
True. And I think we’ll have harsh periods here. And some snow. We always do. But slammed hard with a horrible Winter overall.. that’s unlikely. In fact, IF December does turn off really harsh like the GFS depicts..that would actually work against us for the rest of true Winter. Remember, nature keeps a balance.
like december 2000 that feb 2001 was balmy
Discussion from LMK this afternoon: “A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER. SOME WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.”
No mention of precip. whatsoever. Interesting…
I noticed that too.. Looks like OLD GFS vs NEW GFS battle .. which GFS will prevail?? Place your bets!!
The Average high for Lexington in november is 54 degrees, this November to date the average high temp has been 57.4 not counting today which will bring it down some….so your looking at 3 degrees above average in lexington, thats no record breaking heatwave wxman….thats just 3 degrees…….the average low is 37 and the average low this november has been 40.4 and that doesn’t include tonight which should bring that average down some as well…..so 3 degrees overall isn’t a record warm november….
http://countrystudies.us/united-states/weather/kentucky/lexington.htm
http://kymesonet.org/historical_data.php
links if you want to look for yourself
You can file this away with reading the wooly worms, but….just walked back to my office from the bank in downtown Lex and I saw a line of six salt/brine trucks heading down Upper. They were not actually salting or brining, but they looked like they were on a mission.
low of 16 in northern ky for friday night according to wilmington nws, that is prime snowmakin temps!!!
OK. Well, I’ve printed out this blog post and we can revisit it in a few weeks to see how things eventually went.
The Average high for Lexington in november is 54 degrees, this November to date the average high temp has been 57.4 not counting today which will bring it down some….so your looking at 3 degrees above average in lexington, thats no record breaking heatwave wxman….thats just 3 degrees…….the average low is 37 and the average low this november has been 40.4 and that doesn’t include tonight which should bring that average down some as well…..so 3 degrees overall isn’t a record warm november….
http://countrystudies.us/united-states/weather/kentucky/lexington.htm
http://kymesonet.org/historical_data.php
links if you want to look for yourself
I agree November was warmer and much drier than normal but nothing extreme or record setting tempwise
MJ.you do that But I have a question for you and WXman why do you guys check the blog and comment on here if you have no faith in Chris? Do you just comment to see which one is right? I truly do not understand why Chris puts up with you guys. WXman I want to belive that you do not come on here to cause Chris trouble because you have been on this blog since almost day one but I just don’t know.MJ you do nothing but put Chris forecasting down and I don’t care who thinks that I should not say that but it is true. If Chris is wrong he does not need you guys to let him know it he will point that out he has before…I am so sorry i don’t want to cause trouble on here but Chris gives us so much of his time and if you thank he so wrong stick with this great forecast that you all talk about on here all the time remember you guys are always right………
Why print it out when the blog post remains in archives? One a side note… who annointed you my keeper?
Wxman
About this balance thing. I agree with you on that, but it doesn’t seem like I have ever noticed it being a month to month, but more of a (every few months)..If it’s wet for months, it will be dry for a few months, etc.
Like the winter of 76/77, 77/78. Both those winters were consistently cold with lots of snow. There eventually was a balance, I’m sure; not one month on/one month off.
I’ve seen a few years in a row of ABOVE normal precip before we had a couple years of drought. I’m by no means as experienced as you or Chris, I’m just looking at the past. Sometimes it can take years to balance out.
Thank you Chris I needed that The bashing you get from these guys are really getting out of control….
Didn’t your last line above say “Smile and have fun?” I guess this does not apply here. You always have to infer something negative when I post. Why?
You made a forecast, we should be able to look at the results later on? I mean you do the same to us…you’re are keeper right?
Show me where I said I had no faith in Chris. I never said or inferred that in my comments. The logic here appears that if I disagree with Chris on a forecast, then I am a troublemaker. If so, be that as it may, but it simply far from the truth.
I am always smiling and having fun! 🙂 But i give the people my forecast for free. We all pay for you guys to give us a forecast. 😉
MJ are you for real go back and read all your comments I’m missing it somewhere I guess You do have the right to disagree but this is Chris blog and like i said if he is wrong he will point it out….
Chris thank you for everything that you do for us all evan the basher……
Is this “okay to drive to work” weather or should I be worried? I commute to downtown Frankfort from Lexington and I don’t want to get stuck or slide down the hill.
For less than $3.00/yr, I call that a bargain! Funny how people complain about that, but yet don’t mind taking and using all the model data which comes along with it!
Chris wrote:
Why print it out when the blog post remains in archives? One a side note… who annointed you my keeper?
———-
Yea, I thought that was vinny’s job.
Aww, let that person print out this blog…let him have fun.
We pay no attention to that stuff, Chris. You’re our forecaster. We come
here for your forecast, Chris!
We appreciate your hard work that you do for us! Thank you again.
And marsha I have a question for you. Why do you act like mother hen of the blog? Always putting your nose in as if you are defending something that’s not even yours? Chris is a grown man. If he wants anybody gone he’ll ban them. Why don’t you quit stirring up the pot.
You are correct. It is usually months at a time. Which is why I feel like Winter won’t be harsh overall. Since April only November has been warm and dry. What a streak! So look for it to turn around soon and balance out with warmer, drier weather.
I’ve never seen this from the cpc for a monthly outlook. the euro also has switched to the solution fo bringing an arctic blast in next week.
MJ…did you see my question from the previous post?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif
LMAO….
What the hell did I do..??? lol
GO STEELERS…!
DING !! DING!! ROUND 2 or 3, well maybe 4…heck I’ve lost count…LOL….:)
Hey guys. One of my favorite maps to watch is the snow prediction map. The one that acutally has the pink, dark pink, yellow, etc. Is there a direct link to where I can pull that up between Chris’ posts?
LOL…LOL… turn Max loose on them..
lets see Chris charges $0 per yr and you guys get $3 i think Chris’s is the better bargain just my 2 cents but don’t worry i won’t charge for it 😀
I ONLY have 1 thing to say!!!
GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well 2 things.. LET IT SNOW.. LET IT SNOW!!! 🙂
well its CB against the world, NOBODY mentioning anything this weekend as far as precip.
I GOT CB BACK,
I think we need a BRING CHRIS BAILRY BACK HOME FACEBOOK PAGE, can someone get that done. tx
MILLER on fire early!!!BLUEEEEEEEEEE!!!
cornbred and shuck beans,mmmmmmmmmmmm dats what im talking bout.
Wow, this edition of the blog reminds me of when I used to have law partners.
Now….GEAUX SAINTS (and Bengals).
Keep up the good work Chris. The Blog is the best.My family and coworkers depend on you!
Geez, not even Winter yet and the blog is ready to break into Civil War. Everybody needs to chill and accept that Kentucky winters stink these days. I guess we have the memories of classic Winter storms in 94,96,and 98. Until folks accept that this could be a part of the larger picture (maybe climate change ?) then we’re going to have alot of frustrated bloggers. Just check out the trend of recent, the models show big time cold outbreaks, monster Low pressures riding east of the Appalachians. In reality, as we get closer, storms shift further west, we get plenty of warm air advection, and the big time cold never shows. We’ve seen this for the past several winters, with the exception of the Louisville-northern Ky areas. Until things change, and I doubt that happens, I remain skeptic of any kind of fun and games happening this Winter.
i bet the Patriots +2 tonite myself, Saints secondary is in bad shape.
ole HENRY at ACCU WEATHER just posted maps that has east coast getting it SATURDAY, look like if that GFS holds to far east fore us.
interesting to look at another weather nut view.
TEST..Just seeing if this goes thru. Other post today have been moderated and never shown up.
folks the saturday system starting to get some WEATHER GUYS attention,
I say tomm runs shows this even better, might be as gomer says,
SUPRISE,SUPRISE,SUPRISE!!!!LOL
WXman I never said for Chris to ban anyone I just said how does he put up with you guys. Mother hen I’m not trying to be. I just think Chris works hard to give us this blog and I don’t think you guys have respect for him. And if you don’t like that I’m sorry stiring the pot I never say anything on here about anybody unless one of bloggers are attack I have evan defender you.
Rolo ole buddy, I hope we get the Gomer effect,lol!
For what it’s worth, we finished November at 49.7 degrees avg. for the month in Lawrenceburg with 1.36″ of precip. And I DID record that trace of snowfall on the 26th even if the official record for LEX didn’t.
Plus, the quality here is much better. I’ll take free over the $3/yr any day!! LOL
You’re breathing wrong again…LMAO
Is that considered warm and dry for November?
mmm…shuck beans, i havent had those in yrs…they are good…
oh brother… this is a piece of an article I just read, our luck it will snow in NEW ORLEANS again !!! before it does here..lol..lol…
………………………………
This is getting to be interesting. Some snow was in the air last year in December around Houston ( New Orleans earliest ever, and we could beat that this year as the same late week storm that will threaten southeast Texas with early snow and record cold, may bring snow to New Orleans, and then this brings the east the weekend snow) but my count this would have been 3 of the last 6 Decembers with snow someplace in coastal Texas
Tim,
Not really a big suprise. The southern tier states have had more snowstorms the last 10years than we have had…lol.. WE ARE DUE!!! OUR TURN!!!..lol
Tim.. check out South, East, West, & North of Whitley Co! lol 🙂
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
I never minded the friendly banter between the weather people here. It isn’t as if MJ comes in here just to bash Chris or anything, he has given plenty of positive and constructive info over the years here. If him and Chris differ on forecasts and give each other a hard time about it who cares. Bah… I hate drama.. Can’t even get away from it reading a silly weather blog.
compared to average…yes.
yeah, how about that 5″ almost to the texas coast !!!!…COME ON GIVE US A BREAK!!!….and I don’t know if its just me or what but the 18z run of the GFS has lost its everloving computer chip mind !!!…I mean after the big storm around the 10th, which doesnt give us much snow, its trying to pop a ridge over the east…KOO-KOO
Well just remember that giving our opinion does not mean we have no respect for Chris. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. That’s why there is a comments section. Neither MJ nor I ever said anything negative toward Chris.
marsha, you’ve got some brown stuff on the end of your nose.A little on your lips too. might want to wipe it off.
Thanks, It did seem pretty warm.
When I buy certain products that are advertised during the news broadcast, I help pay your salary. Maybe not in the same way as the NWS. But I don’t mind. Heck, if it weren’t for weather, I wouldn’t watch the news anyway. I appreciate your website that is free and without advertisement. Thanks for the committment. As far as MJ, WXman, and others, keep up the posting, I enjoy reading all the post even if the weather dudes disagree.
Why is Chris saying Snow and Xman is saying no snow.
yea man Tim nothing likee SHUCK BEANS, got a freezer full.
my patriot bet looking rough so far..
GEAUX SAINTS
sorry, Rolo, not your night. 24-10 at a
half, and Drew will not let up.
Saints look like the team to beat this year… I don’t think Colts could hang with them…
GO STEELERS..!
I think I just stopped by a taping of “As The Weather Changes” or something!
Chris, looking forward to your ideas about the weekend, as it gets closer.
Wxman, I don’t always agree with you, but I love reading your comments.
MJ, ditto for you, too.
Marsha, thanks for guarding the gate.
Tim, we need some snow love around our part of the state….BAD
And Rolo….unless I miss my gut, your Pats COULD be in for a rough night. but I never count them out. I have seen them comeback before…..
I love all you guys! Have a GREAT evening, and enjoy tomorrow, And Chris, thanks for the blog. whether we all agree with you or not, we love it!
WXman I was just giving my opinion just like you say you do but wait a minute I’m a mother hen that got her nose where it don’t need to be wait you also said I was stiring the pot I guess you and MJ can have a opinion but when I comment on here about Chris or anyone one else I get slam by you My opinion is just just as good as yours.
How very nice of you…….
Coffeelady, you are wonderful.
Well said!
Rhonda Coffeelady is wonderful I should have just stay off here today maybe all these nasty comments would not have been on here I’m sorry Chris and to all the bloggers evan WXman and MJ I should have kept my opinion to myself….
Interesting the NEW 0z GFS is showing a westerly trend on the Sat. storm this shows precip in a 24 hour period with far Eastern Ky getting a pretty good snow.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p24_126l.gif
Don’t appologize Marsha, if they have the right to say what they want so do YOU! and they are always negative, regardless of the weather or how accurate the forcast is! You go girl! 🙂
Chelle thanks this blog is really getting bad I love reading all the comments and Chris is great but we really can’t give our opinion because it really gets us in trouble.
That is interesting. Should be interesting if the new GFS corrects its old east bias.
Good one!! Go Chris!! LOL!
I said no snow? Where? I must have missed that.