Good Sunday everyone. The blog is back after being in an internet blackout last night and just in time as winter is ready to make an appearance around here for the new week.
The changed begin showing up as a front swings through tonight into Monday. This will bring an increasing band of rains through the area tonight into Monday. Temps will come way down from where they are today as we struggle to get out of the low 40s Monday afternoon. Winds will be rather gusty as well.
Tuesday will be a boring weather day as clouds increase ahead of our well advertised southern storm that we have talked about for about a week now. This low will indeed take the track along the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains and will likely be a rain to snow maker around here. Here is the setup from the GFS…
Wednesday Evening
Thursday Morning
Thursday Evening
That is one stout low pressure! It will bring heavy rains and gusty winds for Wednesday with temps in the 40s. Cold air will pour in quickly from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rain will change to a period of snow with snow showers and flurries likely taking us into early Friday. The GFS is showing the chance for us to put snow on the ground…
That is still 4 days away so user beware with numbers as accumulating snow is not set in stone. 
Temps will CRASH as they fall into the 20s by later Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday and Saturday will likely stay in the 20s as well with lows down into the teens.
The overall pattern across the northern hemisphere says get ready… winter is going to get off to a strong start in December! 
Full update later tonight so check back. Take care.
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thanks for the update CB, an inch or two would be nice, the real story obviously is going to be the cold. i saw twc had lows for us in the lower 20s for next friday into beyond that really means mid 10s for lows probably, so we can get some heavy duty snow making and maybe enough snow to stick to the grass, thats a good start considering how mild the past few weeks have been overall.
thanks Chris. I was getting worried about you! thought maybe last night’s game had bummed you out so bad, you had thrown your computer keyboard or something! 😉
Well, I guess it is time to get out the heavy coats, and the gloves, and scarves! (Possibly the long johns too, at least for a couple of days!)
Looking forward to seeing a more in depth post later tonight. but, this is definitely something to chew on, for sure! thanks!
I love you weather dude for your love of winter, but it seems as though the closer we get to s-day (snow day), the higher the temps go and the lower the predicted precips go…no offense…I still watch your blog exclusively and I couldn’t predict weather if it was happening NOW, but I saw this happen repeatedly last year. Again, thanks for the weather blog and I’m still here.
Thanks Chris for the update, lookin forward to your next one as usual!
Looks like this would be the idea track for a winter storm? IF only the cold air can push in before the low departs! 😉
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
Clink top link from the list, (latest model run) then click GFS to get the tracking of the latest GFS
or click here
http://www.freaksters.com/weather/track.gfso.2009112912.east_coast.single.gif
As always, I am doubtful, but I still get super excited when I see accumulation maps!!! I guess we’ll see just what Ol’ Man Winter has in store for us!
Let us hope this winter we are rid of the cold air in, moisture out scenario of the (for the most part) past eleven years.
Bernie thanks for the links above. Very useful.
Boyle County- What a difference a couple days make. I have a balmy 60* as I type this. The 27* the other morning finally killed the remaining in ground flowers we had. Get this….last year our outdoor goldfish froze in the decorative pond and after it thawed they were fine. This year the wife feels sorry for them and made me catch all 21 of them and put in an aquarium till spring. The things we do…lol.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
And so it begins. We’re all on snow watch for the next 4 months!
I agree BubbaG. We’ve seen too many times one arrives before the other. I have a terrible feeling this may be one of them.
My favorite season of the year !! Business in here should really pick up next couple of weeks. I hope this is one of the coldest and snowiest winters yet. I really miss the snows we used to get back in the 70’s and 80’s .. I tell my kids about them and show them pictures and keep hoping that they return. I retire in about 10-12 years and plan on moving north unless our winters get back to normal. Keep up the good work Chris, I really love this blog and check it daily in the winter.
Wed/Thur storm looking more interesting on each run.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
same ole story so far gang, HEAVY MOISTURE, THEN COLD AIR COMES AS THE moisture moves out maybe a dusting to a inch at best. arggggggggggg
It’s a start though Rolo!
i agree patty, im not givining up this early this sysatem could turn out as a surprise!!!! still
Since 1977/78 is one of the analog winters, I thought I would post the monthly and annual snowfall totals that season for Lex
Nov 77…1.7
Dec 77…3.0
Jan 78…26.4
Feb 78…7.1
Mar 78…8.4
_______________
Season…46.6
If you notice, there wasn’t much snow until Jan, then all *%#^ broke loose!
ahhh, January 1978. I was working as a bartender in Dayton Ohio and wore a light sweater to work that night. When we opened the door to leave at 3am, we couldn’t see across the sidewalk. I drove home slowly and never took the car out again for 2 weeks. We shoveled all the neighbors out, played alot of cards, etc, etc, and etc. Nine months later, the maternity wards were slammed, I did not participate in that party though. Long story, not weather-related,LOL. Snow? I’ll wait, and I am ready!!!
Can anyone tell me where to look to get this years snow forcast?
Im trying out something different to try it out click this link hopefully it will work It will be active until 11:30pm http://192.168.1.102:89/main
I think that’s a local ip address in that link. Youll need your DNS in there instead.
I took a look at the NAM and it was interesting. It is showing a more west track of the low than the GFS…. please be wrong NAM!!! lol
Interesting note not only is the 0z NAM coming in with a more westerly track the 0z GFS is going with a warmer solution meaning less snow as well and the 0z CMC is also going with a more westerly trend. Something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the storm.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed!
the new version of the gfs has a much different view of the long range the current version of the gfs, more in line with Chris’s thoughts.
Boyle County- At 12:51am 53* and we picked up a little over .04 in the rain bucket last couple hours and looks to be a good bit more overnite.
Snow chances http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
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