Good Saturday to one and all and thanks for checking out the blog. Meteorological Winter begins on December 1st and it is looking more and more like the first few weeks of “winter” will get off to a rather strong start! I don’t think too many of you will complain about that. 
Before we get to all that… we have a decent weekend that is in progress. Temps today will warm nicely into the 50-55 degree range under a mostly sunny sky. Sunday starts nice but ends with an increase in clouds with the threat for a few late day showers. Highs will once again be in the low to mid 50s. This should be a rather breezy weekend too.
The system coming in late Sunday into early Monday will be rather week and pretty quick moving. Showers will be in and out by Monday afternoon as temps come way down.
NAM Monday Morning
Monday Afternoon
Temps will struggle into the lower 40s for Monday afternoon. You can see that the bulk of the energy stays back to our southwest waiting to come out as a MUCH bigger system by Wednesday and Thursday. This happens as very cold air plunges into the middle of the country and if we can get these two together… this could be a nice winter event around here or somewhere not to far away.
Most models not named the GFS are coming into agreement on a low that tracks northeastward along or just west of the Appalachian Mountains. The European Model and Canadian are very similar for how this all plays out…
European Model Wednesday-Thursday
Canadian Model
The GFS is likely showing it’s typical bias of being too far east with east coast lows…
Wednesday Evening
Thursday Morning
So… next week certainly has my attention and it should have yours. Regardless of what that storm brings… very cold temps will likely engulf the region and much of the country into the middle of December, at least. Combine this with our active southern storm track and you can really get some fun and games. As a matter of fact… the potential for something memorable to happen before Christmas is much higher than normal! 
I will update as needed this weekend so make sure you check back. Have a great Saturday and take care.
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Thursday could be interesting if cold air comes into play! If only the cold air was already in place… then we would be talking about something!
Well….we’re 5 days out…..anything can happen….BUT if we see a normal retrograding (moving to the west…I think I might’ve made that up on the spot) of the GFS, then…..well…..I’m not going to say what my hunch is telling me right now.
BUT….it will mean some interesting weather, for sure.
Chris….I don’t mean to be one to “refute” your comments…but something in my ear keeps whispering to me what I’ve heard before many times in the past..
“Most low pressure systems don’t like to track directly up the Appalachian Mountains.”
Is this really true? Mountains tend to shear out or considerably weaken a storm system. Hurricanes, tornadoes, low pressure centers….they all have a hard time over mountains, and if they go up them, they tend to stall out…right?
Odds favor a track slightly west. Okay…that’s my final say on this until the next update.
Enjoy a refreshing weekend everyone, after todays and tonight’s cool snap!
Morning, Chris…does this mean we might actually see some snow in these parts, even if it is just a small amount? I am going to be keeping a close eye on the weather blog, to see how this unfolds. SOMEONE is going to get some good snow out of it.(I hope it’s us.:D)
Now, one more thing…..GO BIG BLUE!!!! BEAT TENNESSEE!!!!!
Sure hope that the weather is ok for next Sunday as I have to go to Louisville to pick up a friend at the airport. I have been waiting for him to come for 3 months, so I had better be able to get there.
In general, most storm systems either go west or east of the Apps. I’ve never seen one gone up the spine of the Appalachians, but I’m sure someone out there will argue that one has. Hurricanes do not interact well with mountains due to the strong frictional effects near the surface which completely disrupt the circulation. On the other hand, Tornadoes have gone up one side of a mountain and down the other side. Believe me, I’ve seen tornado tracks in east KY that went up and down ridges with no problem.
On to the westerly track…Yep. 00Z UKMET and Euro have shifted slightly westward. Still a shot though of some wet snow and the end.
Sure hope the weather is ok next weekend. I have to go from jackson County to Louisville to meet a friend at the airport. I have waited 3 months for him to come, so I have to be there.
Then the snow can fall.
Thanks Chris for the update and thanks MJ for answering my question about the HPC.
0z and 6z was full of fun and games?
As far as the Wed/Thur storm, I think Louisville is the sweet spot atm?
Good Morning fellow weather freaks…
At my house in Masterson Station, NW Lex.
31° under a B-e-a-u-tiful blue sky…
For all you UK Football fans, this could be a historical day..! Dress warm if you’re going to the game, temps will be in the mid to upper 40’s…
Now lets enjoy our day and BEAT THEM VOLS..!!!
GO STEELERS..!
♫♪If you want to see an Old School, Clap your hands, (clap-clap)♫♪
♫♪If you want to see an Old School, Clap your hands, (clap-clap)♫♪
♫♪If you want to see an Old School, cause your so dang tired of NO-SCHOOL,If you want to see an Old School clap your hands,(clap-clap)♫♪
ehhhh, I’m bored…. lol
GO STEELERS..! CLAP-CLAP
IIRC, the storm of Feb-98 went up the spine of the Apps. That was the last textbook case of dynamic cooling around here. 2 feet of snow resulted for us.
When is the new GFS supposed to be operational?
Starting to be a beautiful day here in my neck of the woods. 🙂
Madison County – Berea
Bright sunshine
60°
Hey Pat! Be safe! I hope all is okay with you and the boys!
You’re right there on pitch too Vinny! Clap Clap! LOL!
I believe that was an 500mb cut off low over the east coast that resulted in a strong fetch off the Atlantic that gave us all the snow. That system a complete and total anomaly in our snow storm database. I’ve got all the re-analysis data on that and will take a more detailed look at that when I have some free time.
The new version of the GFS which is currently running parallel to the current one is scheduled to be moved over to production on 12/15/09.
started out at 25 at my house this morning
Is the current GFS going away totally?
Nope, just some model changes. Here is a link to the details:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-32aaagfs_changes.txt
Here is a link of the latest changes that are coming. Looks like Jan 2010 will be the next set of changes.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
Low 60’s here in NW LEX today, awesome, awesome day. Can’t complain about sun an tshirt temps!
Interesting. Will be interesting to see if these changes are reflected in it’s handling of southern branch Winter storms.
How many people here are going to be watching the game on the Internet tonight?
I’ve always been confused on this. If it goes “EAST” of the apps isn’t that ONLY good for eastern KY? Not central KY or the Louisville area? And if it goes WEST of the apps, Rain for us? I would like to know what the perfect track for Lexington/central KY would be. Apparently , they sure had big snows here in the past regularly.
not me i will be watching it on ESPNU
Don’t know if you knew that they were on line. Here is the link.
Reg 00Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_s.shtml
New 00Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_s.shtml
To change the model run times, just change the 00 in the address above to 06, 12, 18 for each respective run.
Patty,
Hello, I have been looking for you on here. I have been reading the blog all summer, just wasn’t ready to blog. Now that winter is here, I guess it is time to get back into blogging. The boys and I are fine. Went to a friends for Thanksgiving. I am sure that the next 3 or 4 weeks will be hard, but we can get through it. Thanks for the note.
Well, its NOT all about the surface track. Many other variables come into play in order for all or portions of KY to get nailed. So many folks simply focus on the surface track though.
We have a winter storm climatology that we’re updating right now with St. Louis University. Lots of good information is being discovered here and hopefully that can be shared with everyone later on once its done.
What we’ve determined already is that the largest accumulating snow storms are not usually associated with lows going to the south and east of KY. Rather…its typically as simple as having a cold airmass in place with overrunning precipitation that has resulted in the highest accumulations. Case in point was the Jan 2009 ice storm. Very classic case.
Burrr! I like a little winter, but this is too early! I hope this doesn’t mean a long, cold winter.
Boyle County- Heavy Frost this morning Low recorded of 27*
So the only difference in web address is the “para” instead of “prod”…when the new model goes operational will it be the only one available on the main “production” page then?
I don’t get ESPNU. 🙁 Thanks to those who posted the links to where you can watch online the other night. I’m getting to watch on my laptop and it’s better than nothing! Although I do really enjoy Tom Leach on the radio. Go CATS!
Rocky Top you’ll always be
Home sweet home to me
Good ole Rocky Top, Rocky Top, Tennessee
Rocky Top, Tennessee.
Rocky Top, Tennessee…
its OK. detroit is a lovely place in late december.
the gfs needed an update like this. thanks for the links MJ.
the parrell gfs ( discussed above) has a much better handle of the upcoming storm than the current version of the gfs, more in line with the other models.
Yep, “para” stands for parallel. After 12/15, the “prod” site will be the GFS with the new changes (i.e. the parallel version that is running now). The “para” site would probably be a duplicate or they may take it down.
Could win…
Was a heart breaking lose for my Cats… AGAIN…
GO STEELERS…!
Pat….I wrote a note to you back once when you asked about me. I”m sorry for the loss of your husband. I remember when you asked for prayers when he was rushed to the hospital. I didn’t know he had passed. The holidays will be tough, but you still have your boys for support and all your friends here on the blog!
MJ, thanks for answering my question, I appreciate it.
Boyle County- 44* Much warmer than this time last night.
Snow or no snow?
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
No update from Chris tonight?
30 even this morning
no it was a CHOKE/MENTAL ILNESS that happen to UK.
first get a BREAK OF A LIFTIME with ther fumble, the RANDALL COBB takes us from 37 yard line to the 10 in 3 plays and BAAAMN!! we go back to NEWTON and that there says JOKERR is not fit to take this program over.
and his reasoning after game proves my point.
folks UK FOOTBALL has peaked and after last nite game underachieved with the staff that here now. its all down hill from here.
Randall Cobb vless his heart should transfer because he was going to win that game last nite until his coaches turn yellow and played for overtime as brooks always does.
Major eye candy (forget about blizzard ’93) lol
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_276m.gif
Same thing with the South Carolina game. if they had left Cobb in for the 2 point conversion we would have won. Last night made no sense. I don’t think Joker is head coach material either.
remember what Chris said lol 😉
I agree! We need a good recruiting coach to compete with the SEC, they make you believe that Brooks or Joker is one of the best coaches, but with a .432 for the last 4 years should say something, if it was the BB team, we would’ve already sent him on his way.. Go figure!
No Way!….Is that the storm for Wed-Thurs time frame?! Wow is that a mega storm!?
I wished it was Wed/Thur storm, that is for Dec 10 time frame.. Just view it as EYE CANDY, not gonna happen!! but good wishful thinking! 🙂
Agree with that thinking completely rolo. The play calling and coaching was poor at best last night.
“At the end of the game is when I’m the most hungry. I would have loved to have the ball in that situation. But I didn’t.”
That’s a direct quote from Randell Cobb…
Why are we NOT using our best players late in games..???
So disappointed…
GO STEELERS..?
in my view the potential form some accumulating snow is increasing for wednesday night into thursday, could be a quick period of hvy snow aided by dynamical cooling. Thursday should be a true winters day with afternoon temps near 30 and snow showers.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif
this map does not show snow but it does interest me because of how vast a storm we are dealing with. we from this look i’d be confident in a rain/snow situation kind of like what happend in our southeastern counties last december early in the month with 1-4” totals depending on time of changeover. of course i am a weenie and alot of my call is my gut lol, but still there is alot of juice with this if the cold can get in for a few hours it would be fun!!
JOKER is a great recruiter but not a good coach.
i mean he has brought in some grat talwent here.
I really like the new GFS runs! 🙂
Madison County – Berea
Sunny with clouds
61°
bernie mee tooooooooo!!
oh CB you have no idea how badly i need an update. i will happily admit this blog is my life, i am proud to say that!!
haha! okay…yeah if I had read at the bottom of the map it said Dec. 10th. lol. Thanks Bernie.
I agree Tommy. This blog is about as definately an addiction. I’m a college student and I don’t get nearly as much of my school work done in the winter as I do in other seasons because I spend so much of my time on this blog! Its bad let me tell ya.
GFS looking REALLY interesting for the WED-THURS storm. If only it will hold…
I see the NWS forcast discussion has written in minor accumulations. Has MJ followed suit?
yea me too i mean i love winter but homework just doesn’t get done as fast as it does in the mundane times of year. i just turned 20 and people keep telling me when i get older i will hate snow ect. well if snow cancels work or school for me now i get so excited!!! honestly though thats because a mortgage and kids arn’t over my head but even if they were SNOW IS THE BEST!!!
tommy, if you’re this bad about snow NOW, you’ll definetly still be a freak about it when you’re older, job,family or not! I am 47 & I still get as excited now as I did when I was a kid. You should see some of the hiss-fits I throw when we don’t get the projected snowstorm…but if it does hit, I go into another world!;)