Good Wednesday afternoon gang. Just dropping by for a very quick update on the weather over the next few days. Things are still on course for a wintry change around here. Winds are cranking right now as colder air moves in just in time for Thanksgiving Day into Friday.
Rain showers will increase during the day Thursday and those will gradually switch over to snow showers by later in the day. These will continue into Friday morning and there is a shot at a coating of snow in some spots. The NAM snowfall forecast agrees…
The weekend continues to look pretty good, but it is next week that is grabbing my attention as winter tries to come on strong! A big storm will get going early in the week and can bring us some early season fun and games. The cold will grow more bold and is likely to hold! My rhyming skillz are mad! 
I have noticed some snide remarks showing up in the comments section recently and you know what happens to me when that starts happening…
Green really isn’t my color… or is it?
Safe travels and take care.
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NOPE!!..don’t think Wynter would like to have a green daddy…LOL….
According to the NWS, you cannot calculate (or they choose not to) a wind chill temperature if the air temperature is 40°F or greater. I personally think that’s a load of bu******. Walk outside right now and tell me that wind doesn’t cut right through your clothes…
Feels good to see the blog ramping up for winter. I get the e-mail updates of Chris’s posts every day but rarely look at or post in the comments section until winter. It’s good to see a bunch of the same ole crowd. Happy thanksgiving everyone.
cb if you turned green that bad that take you from brodcast meteorology to work for the nws 😀
Ya know…. MJ from the NWS used to post here every now and then. Has anyone ever seen a picture of him?? Maybe he is hiding something….
Green is sooooo your color. Go Herd!
Boyle County- What a beautiful morning! Bright sunshine and mild but the clouds, wind and chilly temps are moving in as I speak. Unofficially it reached 60 here before starting the tumble.
I placed some maps on http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php that some of you may find interesting.
Mj just posted yesterday or the day before…
Hi Chris & Bloggers! Hope you all are having a fine day.I’m working on my cakes and pies for tomorrow.I really love the winter forecast Chris…you do soooo good for us winter weather lovers.Thanks a bunch.Happy Thanksgiving to you and the family …and to all of the Bloggers here…..Have a terrific holiday everybody!
Very interesting Michael! 🙂
Chris needs to add an “edit” button to the comments. I should have left the explitive out. :ox My apology.
Seen a picture of him? What does that have to do with him posting or hiding something? I’m confused…
OH, wait a sec.. You mean that you don’t think he really works for the NWS. You think he’s Bill Meck or something. 🙂 I’ve spoken to him in person a few times and I can attest to the fact that he does work for the NWS.
for the NWS bashers out there, they’re just being objective forecasters based on the forecast methods and models they used to produce it, usually around here a more skeptic viewpoint is needed when figuring snow chances because so many things need to go right. But I still love to excited when there’s even when the models just hint a chance for substantial snow or models trend even briefly in that direction.
that being said I’ll wait through the 00z runs before writing off Monday’s system. the one by late next week has my attention, the lost 12z solution of GFS is out of whack, while the euro and Canadian have a deeper cold airmass moving in late next week with a storm coming out of the desert southwest and Texas.
Noooooo…. haha sorry guess I didn’t explain that too well. Tommy was saying that if Chris Bailey looked like the grinch he would no longer be able to do broadcast weather on televison, but rather work behind the scenes where people cannot see you. I was hinting that with that logic perhaps MJ is actually a Grinch since his work never makes him visible to the public.
Chris, i like your forecast. Looks like we can see a good dusting to and inch in Pike Co. according to NAM
Another reminder to check out the AFD product from NWS LMK this afternoon. MJ did an even better discussion today concerning the “big” storm next week. Will be intersting to see where Chris’ thoughts go on this storm from here.
Actually, anyone seen that old Will Smith- Tommy Lee Jones flick, Men In Black? Where all the post office workers are actually aliens? Maybe the NWS is that way.. Haha ok I’m just being silly I know….
I love this forecast.. Keep up the good work!
Chris, your snowfall map is nice to see! It’s been a while since you have posted anything like that! Unfortunately, it is all to the north…at least, this time, for a coating. Please ship us some flurries, anyway!
Everyone have a GREAT Thanksgiving, and a safe one! IF you are going to be on the road, PLEASE, PLEASE use extra caution, and take it easy!
Thanks guys for your comments in the last post But this person Billy the Goat mut have a very sad life Rolo is the one he attacks the most but Rolo blog family will be here for him and anyone else this person wants to attack. Happy Thanksgiving everyone and stay safe…..
Yep another good discussion from MJ. Lots of good details in that. Quess we’ll see how the models play this out the next few days.
Here is a picture of me and Chris Smallcomb from NWS Louisville. This was taken back in 2005 I think. We still look the same…generally. See, we get out an mingle with people!
http://louisvillehamfest.com/remembering2005/105 NWS.jpg.htm
…annnnd…you are WHICH one..??! (L or R?!)
So, I reckon you might know Don Kirkpatrick, then?!:)
Sorry, I’m on the left. Chris is now at the Reno, NV office and working on his Ph.D
Yes, I know Don quite well. We work a lot of shifts together.
Kewl…Don is married to my hubby’s cousin, Mary Ann!:)(I am only guessing @ this point…it’s been some time since we have seen that side of the fam…lol)
And, before everyone thinks I have some sort of “in” w/ the NWS…lmao…I have NEVER even MET Mr. Kirkpatrick. Never laid eyeballs on the man. I am supposing that he was always working whenever we had those fam reunions??!;)Mainly, it was always just Mry Ann & kids, and her many bro’s & sis’s!
the gfs and 12z euro showing a blast of cold for days 7-10. hopefully we can a storm to track east of the apps ahead of it.
as for monday’s storm assume .5 qpf, even if we got all snow it would be 2 inches tops due to the warm ground, I for one would rather be in bullsye of a stronger and colder storm.
CB…
I’ve seen that pic somewhere before…. Hummmmm
GO STEELERS..!
the wind did not cut me in 2 then nore does it now actually feels pretty nice atm and felt great earlier
u my girl Marsha,
well look like BIG BEN a go Vinny, thats good news. I always liked him ven back in the Miami days.
well the store was out of hand as usual today,but saw some ole friends I hadnt seen in years.
one of the things I like best about the holidays is running into people you havnt seen in a long time.
BIG BLUE 930 tonite, Patterson walking around in a BIG LEGBOOT today. so will see if he can play.
18Z GFS solution is pretty close to the 12Z Euro…which gives me more confidence in the Euro’s forecast for next week. Still looks like a rain system. Secondary system in the GFS still comes up in the Wed/Thu time frame. While 850 temps do below freezing before precipitation ends, near surface temps never get close to freezing. 18Z GFS is also in better agreement with some cold working down in here during the mid-late second week of December. Again this agrees very well with the very long range Euro weekly runs. Again, transient episodes of cold air, but nothing in terms of true arctic air. Right now, the polar vortex is up over Siberia…need to get that over on our side of the hemisphere before we get major cold.
Because you’re a freak of nature or something, right?
Yeah the 18Z run has a very nice track on the low…it’s really backing off on the cold air advection though. I’m like you….even though the track on the storm looks awesome, it still appears to be rain this go around.
00Z will have it flip flopping again, it will be similiar to the 12Z CAN, then what?
Posted from the previous blog on my thoughts..
I’ve got to say that Dec 1st storm still looking really interesting at this point. I’ve never seen anything like the low thats its showing in the last 4 years I’ve been watching the GFS, its still a long way off, but its looking like a open low that digs in, in the Ohio Valley that pulls the COLD air in, I just know its not like a traditional low that brings the warmer air with it?? I’m still hopeful at this point and its getting close to game time! Is it a sign of a phazing storm? and then zips back to the NW? (similiar to the ’77 phasing?
I had 2 other posts that must’ve went into cyberspace earlier about it on the 6z run.. now its just seeing how much we trust the GFS on the 150 hr! lol
Correction, this is the Jan ’78 phasing and its looking pretty similiar to the setup that the GFS is showing at this point?
http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/jan2427_1978_sfc_loop.gif
UPDATE. I think its slowing down, now its not on the GFS until the 180 hr, when previously it was on the 150 hr, I do believe at this point that there will be cold air to support it, if it don’t pan out til Dec 3-4 which is what the new 12Z suggested? Somebody is going to get clobbered! Now when the 00Z run will see how bad it flip flops again!! 🙂
no that is because when you posted that it was about 60 degrees and 5 mph winds and when i made my comment it was still in the 40s with no wind
I’m not convinced that there will be a secondary low wed/thu the euro has a much less defined feature than the gfs and the Canadian doesn’t even have it. The Gfs ensembles are even 50/50 on this. I think another storm forms late next week when the trough is more established across the desert southwest or Texas.
Well, to borrow your line… “maybe where you live, but we don’t all live where you live!”. :op It was low 50s and wind was sustained at 18 with gusts to near 30 here when I posted that.
You said to walk outside and tell you that it wasn’t so i did and it wasn’t you never said anything about a certain area nor did i so i’m just pulling one of your stunts saying my weather is same as everybody elses 😉
I tend to agree with you on that one Mitch. My simple thought is the whole development of the system next week will be determined by how the trough develops in the west…and whether the flow goes split or not. At this time, I don’t see any “fun and games” around here until at least the second week of December and it would not surprise me to see that get pushed back too.
I think the Euro weeklies update tomorrow. Right now, they don’t bring much in the way of cold in here through the rest of the month. Yes, we’ll have cold, but nothing really impressive…and it will be short lived. I know that’s not what people want to hear, but this is just the pattern we’re in at the moment.
00Z flipped flop back to what we been seeing for the past week, went more colder and a snow lovers delight or exactly what the CAN shows.. Now see the 6Z run flip flop back to MJ’s thinking! lol Gotta love the GFS!!
Is that artic air I see coming down from Canada? 😉
Oh Bernie…you’ve got me all exicted again. lol C’mon 6Z and try to be like your big brother the 00Z! You know you want to…