Good Saturday to one and all. I wanted to drop in for a quick update to get you guys caught up on what is likely to be an early start to winter as a fun and games pattern takes shape. The fun will get started later in the week as a deep trough digs in across the area for the middle and end of the week. This will likely give us our first flakes of the season and has a chance at giving us our first minor accumulation.
A cold front will sweep through Wednesday with showers. Low pressure will pop along the east coast of the US and will ride up the coast as a couple of disturbances dive in behind the low. These should produce snow showers starting Thanksgiving day into Black Friday. Here is the GFS P-type…
The European Model for Friday is one good looking map…
That low across the east may try to bend a little farther west and is something to, at least, keep an eye on. Temps for highs will likely not get out of the 30s for 2 or 3 days.
The timing on this matches EXACTLY what our November forecast called for as we said to expect something like this to start happening around Thanksgiving! 
Beyond this… wow! The pattern for early December is loaded with cold and snow potential and is one that can produce something pretty extreme. Who feels like doing this?
Take care.
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I am lovin this setup for next week!
CB i am not the father!!!!!
If i just read lmk FD correctly we’ll be making snow up in dearborn county starting next week!!!! And snow flurries sound great!!!!
Should make for some good black Friday shopping weather. Nothing to get someone in the christmas shopping spirit like cold temps and snow showers!!! Glad I’ll be in the bed while the shopping madness is going on.
Just in case my prior post didn’t make it..lol..(I need a new comp for X-Mas..hint-hint…)
I previously said it would snow(flurries, showers, whatever) around Nov. 23-24, give or take a day or two either way…does this give me the privvy to get in the all-knowing hubby’s face and go:
“Nahh…Naaaaahh…NAAAAHHHH!!!!”:D ??!
i’ll be delivering pizzas and getting yelled at by my boss for not being a people person which is totally outlandish, but with the pow i will be able to block it out easily 😀
the storm around the 1st has caought my eye favorable track now the gfs and 12z euro. the candaian did have this one as a lakes cutter.
OK..gonna ask again…when it comes to reading models…how does one go about doing that, via Chris’ links to the right there?? I’m not a “model forecaster”, per se, and have no clue as to which one you guys are peering at?? Appreciate the help!:)
me either, but that particular euro run he is showing here is showing a fairly deep trough over alot of the east. the colors can help you see that. the more vertical those lines the deeper a trough the more horizontal the more of a zonal flow, atleast i am pretty sure of this, if i am wrong mitch, wxman, cb or anyone feel free to fix me!
I would go as far as to say that something a little heavier than flurries may be around on the Thanksgiving long weekend. GFS consistency with this solution is uncanny right now.
What could be better than a cold, white Turkey Day? Then that night snow, fireplace going, singing and decorating the Christmas tree? And to top it off, snow on Black Friday!
its a first for sure, and the gfs is standing its ground.
Interesting…how…I make a post…it’s posted…then I get absolutely NOTHING after that?!
Am I being “black-balled” from the Blog, I wonder??!:(
Ohh, well…
Huh?
LOL @ Wxman…(J/K!);)
Just saying…I makes posts, they show up, then after that, I see NO OTHER POSTS (from anyone..lol) here??! Then the next day, I hit the blog, don’t see MY last post, but see a lot of others…??!
It’s like…hmm..when I make a post, the whole damn nine yards SHUTS DOWN(well, at least for ME?!)
I thought it was just my insecurities, but at least you did say, “Huh”?!..;)
BTW, Wxman…I like your posts, so don’t get all defensive on whatever everyone else says about them. They clearly don’t get the fact that EVERY weatherperson (meteoroligist, whomever..) have their OWN forecasts…which may be VERY DIFFERENT from the rest?! (For example…I’m in the Lou. area…we’ve got Belski, Harned,Weingarten and now Christie Dutton (seemingly Goth, but, who knows?!) None/neither of their forecats are always the very same on any given day/time. Belski can say 1″ of snow, Harned will say “1” or less”, and Weingarten and Dutton both think it’ll be a total Blizzard…(or most likely, “periods of rain showers, a Hi of 49°…)
It just depends on what each one is LOOKIN’ AT?!
(Kinda like me a month ago..I said it would snow in some way, shape, form, fashion, etc, around the 23-24 Nov…give or take a day or two…well, I’m not a Met..no knowledge of it, but I trust my “gut”…if it happens, so be it..if it doesn’t, well, I won’t be the only one wrong about it, most likely…?! Right?!;)
One of my buddies was competing for that job and lost it to Harned. He was like “Dude I just lost the job to a guy who works at UPS!” Haha.. Belski is the man though. I have a pic of us around here somewhere.. Anyway, the blog definitely has a mind of it’s own sometimes. Chris does a pretty good job keeping it going, but sometimes it does act screwey.
Whoo Hooo! Snow would be nice, but I am not going to get excited….yet! I will be happy if it is cold and cloudy with flurries….it WILL help get folks in the Christmas spirit! But, Chris, I have to say…..I like the way you are thinkin’! (You too WXman!) I say…BRING IT!!!!
GO BIG BLUE!!!! Beating dem Bulldogs! I’m a very happy UK fan right now.
higher elevations have an increasing threat for a minor accumulation friday night.
the 00z gfs does have a storm tracking over the region Dec 1 timeframe that track would favor with a snowband north of the Ohio river, the Euro, Canadian and JMA all have a storm along a boundary that has another blast of arctic air coming in for this timeframe behind it, the 12z Euro track would favor snow if the cold comes in quick enough. Ahead of this front it will be to warm for snow around the 1st if the storm tracks west of the region ahead of the boundary, the lakes cutter track.
Go CATS a win over UT would be a another step in the right direction for the program. Both UK squads looked good today.
Love the blog
I’m a dancin’ now!!!
You can’t do anything about the length of your life, but you can do something about its width and depth.
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