Good Friday to one and all and welcome to a half and half kinda weekend! You will get a good start to things before some showers move in to end this little thing we call a weekend. 
That will bring us into Thanksgiving week and a change in the overall pattern that is likely to lead into Old Man Winter coming out of his slumber.
The big news is the winter forecast will be online Monday. I had to push it back from this week because I have had to put together the winter forecast from my station. Building all the graphics for it has taken up a lot of my time this week. Hey… they pay the bills so I have to take care of them first!
The good news on the weather front is that today into Saturday look great with temps in the 50s under partly sunny skies. Make sure to enjoy it as things will be changing by Sunday as showers work in from the southwest…
The rain moving in for Sunday should not be anything major… but should deliver us a gentle light, chilly rainfall. This coming from a storm out of the Gulf of Mexico…
GFS Sunday Morning
It should be noted for future storms that the GFS has come back to the northwest with this system after saying we had NO shot at any rains from this. The model has a southeast bias with the placement of southern stream lows and this is very evident in the fall and winter months. Remember that as we roll into winter… 
The showers will move away come Monday as we will be between systems. The next one arrives on the scene Tuesday with the threat for some late day showers. It is beyond this that the waters get muddied somewhat on what happens for the days around Thanksgiving. Does a big storm try to form somewhere across the plains to eastern part of the country? Or do we see a simple colder air mass coming in with some rain or snow showers across the Ohio Valley as the GFS suggests…
GFS Thanksgiving Morning
I am interested to see how the end of next week plays out as there is some potential I am seeing with the setup. I am loving what I am seeing toward the first few weeks of December as winter may be ready to come on fast and furious.The indicies have been showing this for a few days now and I am told that the European Model weekly forecasts for December look brutal for cold and snow around here and for much of the eastern half of the country.
Have a great Friday and take care.
Select Page
Run after run after run after run…GFS is rock solid right now and it’s not budging. Is it right? Hard to say. But it’s sticking to it’s guns.
Light snow *possible* on Turkey Day. COLD Black Friday. MAJOR Winter storm the first week of December. We shall see..
Its happening, this winter. Records 😀 Every single thing is pointing towards an early winter now…. IF it doesn’t happen, I just give up on winter forever lol….
Goodmorning Chris & bloggers..
All the operational models I’m looking at, are showing a potent clipper & ridge setting up over the east & Great Lakes around Thanksgiving Day.. Which is long term, (eye candy) but its not just the GFS onboard showing it now. wow..30s as highs in northern Florida for Thanksgiving weekend?? ECMWF, CAN, JAP, GFS are pretty similiar at this point on the 120-180 hr range?
Quote: “I am told that the European Model weekly forecasts for December look brutal for cold and snow around here and for much of the eastern half of the country.”
Come on Chris, don’t you think that’s a bit of a stretch. I pay to get all of the Euro data including the weeklies and monthlies. The core of the brutal air for early-mid December is centered right over the plains. Our 850 temps only drop to about -1 to -1.5 below normal from Dec 1-14. The maps look just like October 2009. We’ll get cold, but it looks just like as cold as we saw in October. On the other hand, the skill scores from the Euro weeklies have been way below average since 1 October.
Of course, as we all discuss this we are currently sitting nearly 2° above average at LEX, 3.1° above average at Frankfort, and WAY drier than we should be. I still expect a warm and dry Winter compared to average.
Greetings friends,I know it has been awhile, but after my husband passed away I just didn’t feel like blogging. I have been reading the blog though. I am ready to start blogging again now that winter is ready to begin. I have a feeling that this might be the year that we see some good snow fall. I can hope can’t I? LOL
What has happened to Patty? I keep looking for her on here, but I haven’t seen anything from her for awhile either.
Cold here in Jackson County this morning. 30 degrees right now at 8:30 so I know it was below that earlier. Hope everyone has a good day.
Well, Chris, it looks like we are at least going to get November temps on Thanksgiving, which should help put everyone into the Christmas spirit. (Not to mention that if you gather with your family in a smaller house, it might not be as hot!);)
Looking forward to the winter weather forecast, and to the next update, too!
Thanks, Chris!
I agree with you that November will likely end up warmer and drier than normal. We would need a massive cold shot to take out all those warm days we had earlier this month.
So WXman, it is showing cold for Black Friday, what about precipitation? Is showing any snow for that day? What about the winter storm for the first week of December? Is the ground cold enough to support the snow fall, or will it just melt? Thanks WXman!
I saw the euro weeklies as well through a private site and also did not think they were that cold, closer to average. however it’s hard to forecast warm for more than a few days at a time with a negative AO,NAO and a positive PNA potentially setting up to start Dec.
Well, Turkey Day will be flurries, or very light snow, at best. Nothing to create a total white-out. It will be cold though. IF GFS were to be correct, IF, then that storm the first week of December would lay down a significant snowfall and create hazardous driving.
Thanks Chris! It won’t be long now to see if we have a mild winter or a cold and snowy one. Winter is upon us. At least the cool down wll put us all in the mood.
12Z GFS isn’t even worth looking through. Don’t bother.
well when it happens who knows but at some point it will get cold enough for snow making up in dearborn county, i am going to go cry now I want pow!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Earlier dates still show some snowshowers for Nov 30th into early couple days of December for most of the state.
each run keeps getting colder, I doubt that is correct, a more likely solution is for a few days of ridging in the east,from the 27th-30th to end Nov, mild. Then a front to push through with a storm probabily a lakes cutter around the 3rd which produces snow from kansas to chicago. we get back-end flurries. Though i’m not sold on that with a projected -NAO that couldlead to a track similar to the 6z gfs along the apps which would make things more intresting.
WXMan are you calling chris a idiot or something.
LOL…I felt the same way when i looked at it…just showing a cold,NON snowy period for us..but has snow and ice all the way to the gulf coast of texas up to around atlanta Ga on the 288hr and up…LOL..but given our track record that would probably be a reasonable set up…lol..lol…..
I’d say “or something.”
Yeah…cold and sunny for days on end in December? No..not here. Sorry GFS, ain’t buying that run.
May I ask where on Earth you get these ideas from? I mean, seriously…
It is Winter Weather Awareness week in Kentucky. And we are all perfectly aware that there isn’t going to be one. 😉
An uncomplicated look…..A while back an analysis of the GFS 16 day plots pointed to a rain/snow mix around central Kentucky near Thanksgiving and the weekend of. With the slight chance of a hit and miss brief spotty very light accum. To date this scenario is still favored by me. One mans opinion.
End result..Thanksgiving 4 day stretch. Rain/Snow nothing significant. Fairly common this time of year…………………..Of course I could be totally wrong.
I don’t know where you got that out of what WXman has posted.
Wxman always say that Chris Forcast is wrong and his is right.
And the sun will still come up tomorrow. I love to hear all these guys give their opinions. 🙂
I have not seen them… only relaying a what a friend of mine told me. Based on your comments… are you kidding me? If you are saying the setup looks like October did then how the heck can you say its not cold? October went down as the 11th coldest on record for Lexington and was the 3rd coldest nationally. If Lexington comes out with the 11th coldest December on record… I think most people will be saying wow about how cold it was. Poor reasoning on your part dude.
Please show me one place where I ever said Chris is wrong, I am right, listen to me. Show me that. I want to see it.
fighting a loosing battle chris..its a global agenda ! but you already know that…. I guess when were all buried in snow up to our nostrils, global warming will be the cause….
………………..
I just saw on another site, where the first 2 weeks of dec. was to be very cold in the eastern U.S..so I guess we’ll see…
hmmmm, not sure i’m digging all the bashing of WXman. So he thinks it’s going to be warmer than average. is it so bad to think that? i dunno, maybe it’s all in good fun but some of the comments do not come across that way. it’s ok to not agree with the man, but goodness, some of the comments make him out to be the bad guy. and i’d love for vanessa to point out where Wxman called chris an idiot.
Me thinks Wxman is trying to pull some ‘reverse pychology’ on us here!;)
And even tho it won’t happen for heck, I am sure, I am STILL thinking about the first snow(flurries, showers, etc) somewhere around the 24th..give or take a day…I’ve been fixated on that date for a month now…
-BUT!-if it’s gotta snow a LOT, I’d prefer it to be after Dec. 1st…-my hubby had major surgery couple mo’s ago, and that’s when he has to see his surgeon again for some post-operative prob’s he’s been complaining about. Gotta be able to get there, or she will fly off to Timbuktu again for another month or two…(and Lord knows, if we don’t get this taken care of, how am I supposed to enjoy the snow w/ all this moanin’ & groanin’ and ‘woe-is-me’ stuff??! lol! ) (I didn’t mean that in a “mean” way, btw…he just needs for his doc to be handy to give him something for this lil problem and all will be happy!)
I hope CB is right I truly do but as of now I am in the wxman group when it comes to my feelings towards this upcoming winter. It’s cool though I am headed for the san juans in may for some pow!!!
I just wanted to know why WXman is different from chris that all.
I was saying the way Wxman is talking it seems like he is implying chris is a idiot.
new euro weeklies out today, Brett Anderson’s take on what they have,
– normal through Dec 6
– Dec 7-13
Southern branch storm track suppressed farther south from southern California to the Gulf Coast States and then off the Middle Atlantic Coast. Could lead to some winter precipitation events from the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast/Middle Atlantic region.
Dec 14-20
Looks like a -AO and -NAO type pattern
Cold pattern from the Prairies down through the Midsection of the U.S.
Turning stormier over eastern Canada, Northeast U.S. and into the Maritimes. Temperatures near to slightly below-normal.
the nws in wilmington has lows at 30 in dearborn countynfor a week from now, if we can get it a little colder snowmaking can begin!!!
Friday, November 20, 2009 4:25 PM WXman wrote:
“Chris is wrong, I am right, listen to me. Show me that. I want to see it.
Reply to this”
OK, now what..?
GO STEELERS…!!!
i would have to agree on WXman on this OMG the world is going to end now 😉
you are perfectly aware because you fail to wake up and quit dreaming 😛
I’m with Chris about the next few weeks into December. Just looking at the models for the next couple of weeks things look very unsettled around here. I have noticed how the chill the last few days is starting to settle in for the Winter and I expect the first couple of weeks of December to be cold and snowy. The squirrels have been gathering together in the trees around my neighborhood in droves and working like mad. This afternoon I was out walking and several large birds were gathering together from all directions and then took off headed south. Nature is preparing for the cold Winter to come.
NICE lol
I think the winter is going to be Cold Period because thats what it’s supposed to do. The average temp in Jan is somewhere around 29 degrees….thats cold….the winter will not be warm just for the simple fact it is winter and the days are shorter, the sun angle is lower and its normal to be cold.
It was 33 degrees this morning at my house and its not even winter yet…..wow say that backwards…WoW
I have heard the old timers talking about the squirrels too. the animals certainly seem to be preparing for something.
the warm winter 😉
Well, here it is only November 20th and I am already disgusted! I love snow, but have a feeling I best stay off here this winter. But I can’t-I am addicted. I just need 1 GOOD one like I used to see when I was little!
Global agenda…please…give me a break.
Chris, I’m not going to argue here on the blog. We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Hey all!
Just thought I’d share with you about my thoughts for the upcoming winter season (2009-2010, December through March.)
I’m not a professional weatherman, so my thoughts are definitely to be taken with a grain of salt (like the GFS 4 days out or more…fantasy land is all it is…we’ve learned from that, I hope,) but, anyhow, again, just wanted to post some thoughts on our upcoming winter.
First, I think our weather for most of the year has been fairly seasonal. Many meteorologists would disagree with this, as several months have been colder and wetter than normal, especially during our summer months this year. That also is reminiscent of our weather back in 2004, which was also the year (I believe,) we had a record-breaking snowfall in western and northern portions of Kentucky, and especially southern Indiana.
Now, while I don’t think this winter will feature any type of storms that pack that large of a punch, there is the potential there for at least two decent sized snows for the area.
My thoughts and opinions are thus——The year as a whole, climatologically speaking has been about average to slightly below average. November has tallied up so far to be slightly above average in terms of temps, and moderately drier than normal. This is fine, and I don’t think it’s necessarily a precursor to what lies ahead for the winter.
I think this winter will average out a lot like 2000 and 2001 did, with several light snows, and the occasional larger one, or a “seasonable” winter. How do I gather this? Why do I feel this way? Well….again, things have been fairly normal, overall, for the year thus far. I think it would take quite a bit for the atmosphere to go into extreme upheaval. You pair normal conditions with a currently strong Pacific Jet, and you have a more progressive flow across the country (progressive meaning storms generally track across the country in 4 to 5 days and don’t hang around for very long.) This means storms aren’t usually very intense, and make their way out of the area in a day or so. There are a couple of instances this year where this did not occur. Two examples are Nor’Ida that battered North Carolina and Virginia, and also this closed low pressure center that just passed through, which gave us quite a bit of dreary weather and some rain,) but for the most part, our weather has been seasonal, average, and normal.
Urbanization of areas will cause squirrels to harvest acorns just to protect themselves from other squirrels, I think. Don’t know if that’s scientific, but anyhow…it makes sense to me. 🙂
Guess I’ve written a book here, so here are the main points:
Active Pacific Jet through most of the winter—-progressive flow.
A few cold shots in the east combined with the chance for a snowstorm to ride up the coast–that’s our only true chance for a big snow…(10%)
Slight to moderate El Nino will prevent any extreme cold outbreaks—(over 5 days in a row.)
We’ll see!!!!
Did Chris fall asleep to early or was it New Moon that caused the missing update for today 😉
All this bickering about warm winter vs. cold winter is what makes this blog the greatest. Everyone can share their thoughts. As one of the minority (I like warmer weather), I hope it’s not a very cold winter. A few good snows would be ok tho ;). But from a totally un-weather-related take, we just sold our four-wheel drive truck. We have had one for the past 14 years. We’ll probably get a 24″ snow. LOLOL
A couple of you mentioned the animals seem to be preparing for a cold time ahead. For those of you into wooly worm-ology, they say a cold start, then a mild period, and a cold end to winter. All the worms I’ve seen have been black on the ends and red in the middle.
Yeah, debating is ok to a point, but when it gets to people getting upset and pointing fingers it’s silly. I’ll say what I said before. No one on here actually knows what it’s going to do this winter. So one gets on here & says cold & snowy, and another gets on here and says warm and dry. Tell you what…I’ll go for cold & dry. If someone’s willing to get on here and claim warm & wet, we’ll have it all covered and there will be a 100% chance of one of us being right.
The trees turned early. The birds went south. The squirrels are gathering like there’s no tomorrow…nature knows winter is coming. Time to get the shovel ready, just in case.
Well, that’s one color I’ve not seen here (Bardstown)this year, WendyT! I’ve seen plenty of HUUUGGE black ones and even two solid white ones, which, to ME, is pretty rare(never seen all-white before..or even white on a worm, period?!)
This year there’s been a real influx of squirrels in our neighborhood(much to the chagron of our Border Terrier..lol), and for whatever reason, if anyone might know?!- LOTS of Hoot Owls??! I live right in town, and don’t think I ever recall hearing or seeing as many hoot owls(thus, having to keep the outdoor cat inside @ night, which doesn’t sit well w/ the other cats..)-actually, I’ve never SEEN an owl here in 20 yrs!;) And yep-all my animals are wooly little buggers this yr. as well, so I believe this year might be OUR YEAR!!!:):)
and all morning I was beginning to think my computer had flipped out…LOL…he must of pulled an all nighter last night…LOL…
LOL…M.J. no pun intended, I knew that would get your attention…but you do have to admit HONESTLY that MOST outlets are left sided agenda’s for Global warming…Give us some of your thoughts on the upcoming winter…
Pat….I’m so very sorry about your husband! I remember how critical he was but didn’t know he had passed. How
are you and the boys adjusting? It’s not an easy process to deal with the loss of a loved one! My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family!
I’ve not commented much this past summer but just now have left a few comments here and there.
Please excuse the personal message to Pat fellow bloggers.
Wow! Have not thought of that feature before, but I had some insights into it already though. Thanks for the post anyway!best regards