Good Thursday everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. Our big closed low pressure that has plagued the region for the past few days is finally on the move and this will mean better weather that will carry us into the start of the upcoming weekend. 
A few scattered showers will be possible early today across parts of the region… but we will quickly dry things out from west to east. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds with a nice little breeze blowing. Temps today will be near the 50 degree mark for many. Here is how the rest of the forecast looks…
– Friday into Saturday look to be very nice days with seasonable temps. Daytime highs will run in the 50-55 degree range during this time.
– Low pressure will be developing across the deep south this weekend. The question will be just how far north this low can get. The models have been giving us a glancing blow of showers for Sunday into early Monday and we will watch the trend to see what happens with this low.
Big weather changes are coming next week as the pattern begins to go toward a wintry one. The models are not all on the same page on how it all works out… but the potential is there for a taste of winter around the time we are tasting some turkey. Check out the GFS precip type forecast…
I am NOT endorsing what the GFS is suggesting… I am only putting it out there for you guys to see. To be honest… it probably won’t work out like the model is showing. Next week is the first step of what is likely to be a step down process into a true winter pattern taking hold for much of December.
I will try to update all this a little later so check back. Until next time… take care.
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If you use the 850mb charts, then this time of year you really need that -10 line in the area to get snowfall. The 0 line just doesn’t cut it. And that’s exactly what GFS is showing now…-10 with light snow on Turkey Day. It’s been pretty consistent with that trough swinging through too…so at this point it’s got my attention.
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD MORNING!!!!!!
45 degrees and decent morning in gunnyville..
you mean that winter may start to take shape in December, wow, that is new
Snow on Turkey Day sounds awesome to me! I would love to have snow falling as I decorate my Christmas Tree!
Come on snow!!!!!!!!!
I agree with you totally. 0 degrees at 850 is not a demarcation for a rain/snow line.
I also agree with your idea on the trough for Thanksgiving, but I think this whole cool down thing is being over-hyped for the Thanksgiving weekend. Why? First, remember about 7-10 days ago we were seeing the models suggesting a huge pattern change coming up around Thanksgiving with the threat of wintry weather. Now, look at the current data, where is any of that? Yes, there still looks to be a cool down, but its nothing out of the ordinary for late November.
The major player in all this continues to be the Pacific jet which is just blasting the pacific northwest region. The current data suggests that the Pacific jet will remain quite strong through the next 10 days or so. The result is that we end up getting a major trough in the west which will lead to great snows in the Rockies again…while the surface low passes to our west and northwest and into the Great Lakes. With the trough in the west, we’ll see a ridge in the southeast again. Does this pattern look familiar? It should, as this was the case during October 2009.
Based on the last 24 hours of modeling, I do not see any sustainable blocking over Greenland that would allow major cold air to come into the U.S. There is no hint of a polar vortex over Canada. The current vortex is over Siberia where all the cold air is at the moment and will most likely stay for the next 10 days. I know and have seen all these indices that would seem to line up for a cold outbreak…but the current global forecasts do not support them at the moment. Since many of them are calculated of the GFS, I suspect there will be wild changes in those indicies just as there is in the forecast maps out past 240 hours.
Until that Pacific jet relaxes, we’re not going to see any arctic air in here for a while. I will say that if the MJO weakens which the Australian and UKMET models show happening toward 12/1-3, then we could see a pattern change the second week in December.
I agree with you totally. 0 degrees at 850 is not a demarcation for a rain/snow line.
I also agree with your idea on the trough for Thanksgiving, but I think this whole cool down thing is being over-hyped for the Thanksgiving weekend. Why? First, remember about 7-10 days ago we were seeing the models suggesting a huge pattern change coming up around Thanksgiving with the threat of wintry weather. Now, look at the current data, where is any of that? Yes, there still looks to be a cool down, but its nothing out of the ordinary for late November.
The major player in all this continues to be the Pacific jet which is just blasting the pacific northwest region. The current data suggests that the Pacific jet will remain quite strong through the next 10 days or so. The result is that we end up getting a major trough in the west which will lead to great snows in the Rockies again…while the surface low passes to our west and northwest and into the Great Lakes. With the trough in the west, we’ll see a ridge in the southeast again. Does this pattern look familiar? It should, as this was the case during October 2009.
Based on the last 24 hours of modeling, I do not see any sustainable blocking over Greenland that would allow major cold air to come into the U.S. There is no hint of a polar vortex over Canada. The current vortex is over Sibera where all the cold air is at the moment and will most likely stay for the next 10 days. I know and have seen all these indicies that would seem to line up for a cold outbreak…but the current global forecasts do not support them at the moment. Since many of them are calculated of the GFS, I suspect there will be wild changes in those indicies just as there is in the forecast maps out past 240 hours.
Until that Pacific jet relaxes, we’re not going to see any arctic air in here for a while. I wil say that if the MJO weakens which the Australian and UKMET models show happening toward 12/1-3, then we could see a pattern change the second week in December.
Thanks, Chris! We are alittle bit cool here today, so far. Temp is 46 degrees….glad we got the outside decorations up over the weekend, while it was warm! just have to connect a couple of extensions cords now…
Weather looks interesting next week. I hope we can see a few flurries during the weekend, to kick off the Christmas season…
Waiting for the hext update, and what your thoughts are as it grow closer!
We need some nights in the mid 20s for snow making CB, nothing real cold!!!
Allright CB, weres the winter forecast? Were all waiting and with this talk about turkey day winter we are getting impateint hehe.
Flurries would be nice, but I’m still rootin’ for that “shut down the state” snow I remember from my youth.I don’t think that will happen until mid winter if at all. I know that sounds a bit eager in the snow department for KY , but I want what I want!
Hang on… the sun is about to break out in the Bluegrass this afternoon!!
HOLY COW. CHECK OUT 12Z GFS. IT BOMBS US 3 OR 4 TIMES BETWEEN THANKSGIVING AND THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. CHRIS IS GOING TO FALL OUT OF HIS CHAIR. GFS continues to stay consistent with this…maybe it really will happen.
Honestly, do you think this could really happen or is this some big tease?
…Bombs us? Please…How many times have we seen the GFS do this in the far extended and verify? Come on, a big trough that takes up 3/4ths of the country? It will be gone on the 18Z run.
Yeah you would think. And usually, yes that’s the case. But how many runs now have shown big storms in the east now? It’s been several DAYS worth of runs now. When you see it day after day, you gotta’ pay attention. Then again, the NWS ‘cast still says mostly sunny on Sunday (29th) despite every model showing rain…so who knows.
Is there a mountain being made out of a mole hill here? Is that what your saying?
I gotta agree with WXman, the consistency of the GFS lately has been striking in the long range. As far as next week goes, I’m personally liking the Euro and Canadians slower and weaker solution, but we will just have to wait and see.
gfs consistency is impressive but i still don’t see any cold or snow on the horizon, again i am a huge ametur but my gut just tells me a very zonal flow is going to be in place to replace the mild weather we have been having, not that i dont want the 12z gfs to verify but it hasn’t got me fooled. 6z had no trough and like mj said 18z will probably be totally different.
Not going to hold my breath until it’s actually happening…BUT if we can get some snow first week of December, that would make for a great birthday present for me! 😀
When is the winter outlook Bing posted? Is CB still feeling 70’s vibe or back to 00’s?
Not sure if KY will get some of the “love”, but this winter looks to be rough for the eastern part of the country. Question is does the stuff go around us like very other year 😉
Come on CB, lay it us!
they make it up as they go along WXMAN thats why its not very dependable even though Chris’s is area wide his is more accurate for my place than the junk Jackson puts out for my place
ok if we get some, I WANT PROPS!! IVE been saying for over a month around turkey day give or take a day or 2 lookout.
and yea we are too far out to go full bore but i like it.
fact is the ground is not that warm, its been very cool lately and it will lay.
WXMAN do u have a twitter acoount, just want to say keep ur updates coming on the latest maps and stuff my man.
MJ the pattern of late have been different from past, cooler late summer, cooler earlieer than in awhile in the fall. the difference this year with our storms, the cold air will be there with these system that are 7 days out. type system.
meaning they will trend to the better and not a heart breakers.
ok in terms that some u can understand since im not the best putting my thoughts down.
the patternsa have changed, u wait and see this winnter, as we get closer u see all mnodels come to a same solution to the good as far as cold and snow. just go but this year pattern in the spring and summer,cool.
and its not be mild/.warm lately as it has been for so many years.
sorry for double post, I been up for going on 48 hours.
agree ole Buddy, after things as I stated below points to it.
u still in madison county? going be going to a few home games on the BB court and if u like Ill take you with and whoever u want to bring. I let u know.
Well, I do agree with you about paying attention when it constantly shows something, but given the recent verification of the GFS in that time range, I honestly take it with a grain of salt. There is just not that much skill there.
Not sure where you are getting 10 day NWS forecast, they only go out to 7 days.
Dang Rolo… Take me…!!!!!
GO STEELERS..!!!
Kids, Don’t do drugs!
Everyone please from now on call Chris MR WEEKEND lol!!!!!!!!!
Rolo don’t do drugs…
He’s high on life..!!!
You should try it instead trolling…
GO STEELERS…!
Someone was watching WSAZ 5:30 Edition. 😛 Mr. Weekend indeed!
Howdy Rolo,
Yep, still here!
Dang, spell check is evil on smartphones. Mind of its own.
What games?
True. My mistake. I meant 22nd.
I have seen that the GFS tends to overdo cold snaps…lots of the time the cold snap will come but it’s not as harsh as GFS initially showed. It’s true. I just think it’s interesting how bullish the model is right now though with this storm happening.