Good Wednesday everyone. The atmosphere is undergoing some subtle changes this week that will really ramp up over the next two weeks and I have increasing confidence this may very well lead us into an early start to winter around here. How is that for an attention getter? The signs are all there and this should be a fun period ahead of us. Before we get to all that… we still have to deal with this stubborn area of low pressure.

This low will continue to slowly meander its way into the Great Lakes over the next few days. Showers will be likely across much of the region today and our radars have your drop tracking needs covered…





Some of the showers today should be a touch on the moderate side in terms of rainfall. This is good news for what has been a very dry November to date. Local amounts of a quarter to half inch will be possible. There is just enough lift present that a clap of thunder can’t be ruled out. Temps today will be much colder than in recent days. Areas in the east will deal with highs in the low 50s while central Kentucky struggles to get out of the 40s.

The rest of the forecast goes a little something like this…



– Showers will be pulling out from west to east Thursday. It will be a breezy and cool day with temps near 50.

-Friday into Saturday look to be pretty good weather days right now with highs in the 50-55 degree range for highs with lows down in the low and mid 30s.

– Yet another Low pressure will be riding northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico (A great sign for the winter ahead) by Sunday into Monday. This will bring the threat for some chilly rains to the region during this time.

If you are a regular reader of the blog… you will note that back in late October we talked about what to expect for November in terms of actual weather. We pinpointed Thanksgiving week as the time to watch for a big pattern change that could lead to an early start to winter for much of the country. The closer we get to next week… the better that call is looking as the indicies and the models are both on board for old man winter waking up.

All 4 of the major indicies I look at are lining up perfectly for winter to kick off early…






I posted on all those a week or so ago and how i thought you would see them start looking like this. Let me give you a quick breakdown of what the graphs above show…

– A Positive PNA

– A Negative NAO

– A Negative EPO

– A Negative AO

I realize those don’t mean much to you. But when you see those 4 looking like they are… you know the pattern means business as all 4 are heading in the direction of wintry weather for the eastern half of the country! That is very impressive to see every major index saying the same thing… winter is coming.

The models are all picking up on next week as the big switch toward the wintry pattern. Since next week is Thanksgiving week… this may mean we have to be on guard for some big travel concerns for parts of the country due to wintry weather. It appears we get one storm to roll through the area on Tuesday of next week that would bring rain followed by much colder temps that could bring some flakes at the end of the storm. Once to Thanksgiving Day… the models are all cold, but differ on whether or not another storm forms in the eastern half of the country. The European Model is on board the storm train and is actually developing a monster storm for Thanksgiving Day into Black Friday that would bring wintry precip to a lot of people… including us. It is similar to what the GFS has shown on and off for about the past week or so, but has lost in recent days.

Regardless… you get the idea of what we are talking about here. I think the following week into early December is likely to see winter really come on strong for much of the country!

I do want to talk about one more thing before wrapping this thing up and that is the amount of snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere. Take a look at this map…



Let me call your attention to the other side of the globe and all the snow on the ground deep into China. That is amazing to see and means when we get a cross polar flow setting up this winter (and we will)… look out as it could get darn cold across the US! Also… watch the snow cover across Canada and the USA explode over the next week to 10 days!!

How is that for a winter forecast primer?

I will have another update later today to post some maps on what the models are showing for next week so make sure you check back. Have a great day and take care.