Good Tuesday to one and all. We are FINALLY starting to see some weather action around here after what has been a BORING stretch of November weather to date. This has given us a nice little stockpile of nice days that we can pull out of our memory banks in what is likely to be a harsh winter ahead. Oh wait… did I just say that? 
The big closed low we have harped on for days is now SLOWLY working into the area from the west. This will cause an increase in showers from west to east today. You can track those showers here…
Temps today will be warmer in the east with low 60s possible while the central areas stay in the 50s and western Ky only hits the 40s.
That closed low will continue to bring showers into mid week. Here is how the forecast shakes out…
– Showers will continue into Wednesday with temps coming way down with upper 40s to low 50s.
– Thursday will see more scattered showers that will begin pulling away. Temps will be rather chilly yet again with near 50 highs.
– Friday looks pretty good with low 50s and some sun returning.
– The weekend will see low pressure across the deep south developing and riding northeastward up the east coast of the US. I notice the GFS is showing this storm now passing just to our south. This is actually a seasonal bias of the model being to far east with these types of lows. The European Model and Canadian Model both bring this low farther westward meaning a chilly rain coming for part of the weekend. The Canadian is highlighting Sunday into Monday…
This would be the beginning of an active weather week leading up to Thanksgiving. Much colder air will be moving in to much of the country and may try to combine with an active southern storm track that would lead to some fun and games for parts of the country in time for the big holiday travel period. The Canadian looks interesting…
Thanksgiving Morning
We shall see! 
Have a great day and take care.
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I have a feeling that the UK/UT game at Commonwealth next Saturday night is going to be brutal, and I’m not talking about the football.
if snowmaking is going to get going at perfect north we need a crazy pattern change. Please CB let the cold come!
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=4
that storm track needs to go another 100 miles north
not much in the rain zone here in south east ky. today, nothing more than a few sprinkles and partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid 60’s so far…so all in all another nice one in my book, SO FAR…lol..
mesonet in knox co. showing 68* toasty degrees!!!… its a far cry from that 45* showing up in calloway co. in western ky…yuck!! you all can keep that…FOR NOW ANYWAYS…lol…( now if it were 25* with snow falling I might consider that…but 45..nahhh, thats just cold enough to feel miserable).
This storm is beautiful on the visible satellite channel right now though!:
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=EVV&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
Pretty WXman! (I’m keeping my fingers crossed for snow next week.)
Looks like a hurricane…….
Chris, really looking forward to the winter outlook!! I hope it is coming soon. I am ready for some cooler weather to get in the Christmas spirit….Thanks in advance
Spent some time in Middlesboro today, sunny and mid 60s at least. Got into clouds around Corbin, and rain around Richmond, The temp in Georgetown is at least 20 degress cooler than Middlesboro.
my winter snowfall outlook
coloradotommy.wordpress.com
I find it interesting that the NWS keeps posting links alledging that we are seeing some of the warmest global temps. in recorded history…yet the U.S. which is said to be one of the main polluters in the world is consistently seeing some of it’s coldest weather in recorded history. Something doesn’t add up, does it?
One of these days UK has to beat UT. Just like one of these days we are going to get the “Big One” again.
I think most of the features of where the higher totals will be is correct, though my winter forecast has more snow.
there’s more to climate change than what most people outside the field of meteo/climate know about, CO2 and ice melt are not the entire issue. Other factors such as the PDO play parts in climate cycles that last 20-30 years. Are the cycles trending warmer should be the research question investigated in the next few decades.
obviously i am being a little bit of a hypocrit with that map. I get pissed for the weather service in the winter using averages to forecast 5-7 days out instead of looking at models but I do not have much of a choice here. It is amazing to see how these winter storms set themeselves up in kentucky. Kentucky very often is very divided as we see in the ice storm of january with 60s in the south and areas along the ohio river getting about 10 inches of snow before a change over to ice. In alot of cases 50 miles means the difference between memorable winter and a rainy one. I like to use the Lexington/Williamson/Covington line to make my point. Tempwise winter typically turns out to be fairly close I am assuming for these areas (Williamson doesn’t have a reporting station) but the snowfall descrepencies are what amaze me. Time and time again I have driven this 80 mile stretch during snow/ice events and it never stops amazing me how sharp a line develops. March 2008 is a good example. I left Lexington and it is raining at 34 or 35 degrees its rougly 32 or so at Williamson with huge snowflakes that are only accumulating because they are falling so fast. By the time I get to Kenton county we are talking about 5-6 inches of snow on the ground and its still coming down, all in a hour or so drive. The temp difference is there but not huge typically. The big temp gradient is mainly between Lexington and the TN border. I could go one lol but Lexington has been really close to several 15-20” snows over the past few winters only to barely miss, i wonder how much longer this will continue, my map obviously thinks it isnt changing this winter!
How is that gfs december 1st storm looking?
None can doubt the vreaticy of this article.