Good Monday to one and all and thanks for dropping by the blog. We are coming off of another awesome weather weekend that featured sunshine and temps in the 60s. Perfect to get out and just enjoy life a little bit! I hope you guys did just that because changes to the overall pattern will be taking place this week that may lead us into a winter type pattern next week.
The changes come this week in the form of a cut off low pressure that will meander through the Ohio Valley and great lakes. This will bring us a decent shot of showers to go along with some cooler temps. The rains should stay to our west today and you can track them here…
It is once into later Tuesday that we start feeling the effects of the upper low as clouds and showers increase from west to east. This set us up to see the highest rain chances for Wednesday into Thursday. You can see how this plays out here…
GFS Tuesday Evening
GFS Wednesday Afternoon
Temps will be tricky during this time. Highs for Tuesday will come down into he 50s to around 60… but that really depends on if it is raining at your house. By Wednesday and Thursday.. the showers will be rather chilly as temps come down into the high 40s to low 50s.
Here is how the forecast looks…
The showers will try to pull away later Thursday. Right now it looks like Friday turns into a decent day before a disturbance moves closer by the weekend and we will have to watch to see if this will be strong enough for a few showers.
Thanksgiving week is when some real changes begin to show up across North America as our pattern grows active and much colder air finally begins it’s push back into the country. This was talked about in our November forecast that we put on the blog back on November 1st. We said it would be a back and forth pattern until Thanksgiving week when cold air would make a run at us and try to skew the month colder than normal. That appears to be the case as of right now.
GFS Tuesday Nov. 24th
Thanksgiving
Black Friday
The GFS is trying to cook up some fun and games for parts of the country next week… now let’s see if Mother Nature can deliver. 
I will try to update things later today so check back. Have a great Monday and take care.
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One thing you can’t deny is that for several days now the GFS has been bullish with putting a storm somewhere on the east coast for Black Friday. Once we get inside 10 days if it still shows the same, it’ll have my attention.
Wasn’t the 16th when Chris was going to release the long awaited Winter Weather Outlook?
Goodmorning Chris & bloggers..
Thanks for the warm welcome back, it must be officially winter for me I’m hoping we don’t get another icestorm like last year! UGH (another week without power) kinda dampens the snow spirits! lol But this year I’m better prepared! 🙂
I know Chris has to be on cloud 999 with the Bengals, he should rub it in our faces! lol 😉 As much as Steelers have dominated over the last 10 years or so, they earned it thats for sure.
WXman.. I’ve been looking at the GFS and it has caught my attention, but I have to see it within 2 days before it gets my 100% attention as well. We know how dependable the GFS is. 😉
Finally got me a wireless weather center! yayyy 🙂
Madison County – Berea
41 – Foggy & Sun
cold and frosty start to the day here in Barbourville
Sunny, FROSTY
32*
…….
WElcome back into the relm of weather bernie…lol..
hah…a quote from my favorite movie popped into my mind when I read this. I’d say about 9-10 days out, it will “dissappear like a fart in the wind..”
I answered my own question and went back and looked at the old blogs. Winter Weather Outlook is coming out the week of the 16th.
from more a central ky persective i think the rain will be most likely on Tuesday and not Wednesday.
Hey MikeM How are you?…….even accuweather at one point in their extended forcast had frozen precip for black friday! It would make for a festive shopping day!
I agree Mitch! It’s already getting cloudy here in versailes.
Doing well. I met one of your co-workers at the hospital last week. It would scare me to get out and fight all those people on Black Friday, but with the economy what it is I might have to.
that would match the nws forecast well.
I bet Chris is drooling over the 12Z GFS run. MAJOR snowstorm for the eastern half of KY on November 30 IF that verified. 🙂 Of course it won’t..but it is interesting how GFS is consistently showing something big to end the month…
Here is the eye candy on the 12z ..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_336m.gif
WXman do you have a crystal ball or something?How do you know this stuff?
This is an interesting quote from accuweather.
“Some computer models are hinting at a nor’easter for the mid-Atlantic during Thanksgiving weekend. Whether or not it develops at all or becomes strong enough to cause damage remains to be seen.”
patty…I noticed that as well, highs in the 30’s and lows around 20 !! with snowshowers…brrr…
I haven’t checked to see if they still have it up. I don’t hold that site in very high regard. I found it kinda of interesting after all the disagreements between bloggers lately.
Who did you meet? What shift? Did they know me?
How do I know what stuff? All I’m doing is reading computer model output. Am I missing something here?
I hope it’s not going to be too cloudy to see a few of the Leonid Meteor Showers tonight.
winding down yet another spectacular day here in southern ky.with sunny skies and temps in the mid 70’s…more like early sept. weather…and im not complaining, as of now..lol…
If only GFS fairytales always come true, that would be awesome. that is a classic set-up for a snowstorm. I need to see about 48 more runs of that before buying into it.
overcast is thicker now to your southwest in BWG.
Well we all know the track record of accuweather,lol. I am surprised accu is just now biting. The GFS has shown that potential for more than a week but still waffling a lot. Could be rain or snow dependent on track largely. If there is snow air temps and ground temps would limit accum. Rain and Snow are a good bet for that 4 day stretch. Spotty accums a good bet. Significant amounts in doubt.
Perhaps the MJO signal. Currently the MJO is stuck over in the Indian Ocean where tropical convection is currently located. As long as it stays there, the downstream effects on the 500mb pattern will keep a positive height anomaly over the eastern US (the SE ridge).
The GFS ensembles keep much of the convection over the Indian Ocean for the next two weeks. The European ensembles are in agreement and show NO -NAO whatsoever. The only odd man out is the UKMET and its ensembles which are trying to move the Indian Ocean convection to the western pacific.
If the convection gets into the western Pacific, then perhaps I could buy the “timing” and “placement” of features in the current GFS runs. On the other hand, the current forecast would lead me to believe that the current pattern change forecast by the GFS is too early. It should be noted that none of the GFS ensembles in the last two days…nor the European ensembles have agreed with the operational GFS. In fact, the new Euro weeklies have positive 850 MB temperature anomalies over much of the eastern U.S through December 7th. After that, a decent cooldown looks to be in the offing.
Right now, I am not buying the GFS’s timing and placement of features at the end of the month. Based on the data right now, which is subject to change, I would tend to side with a cooldown around the second week of December.
True! lol ..on their track record! 🙂
16 days into the month…average temp. at my house is 52.3 which is at least a few degrees above average. Rainfall is ZERO. I knew it was going to turn around, but even I didn’t expect THIS drastic of a change.
here’s your cookie, now go to sleep…
Geez… talk about patting yourself on the back… is your arm sore dawg..???
lol All in good fun WXman…
GO STEELERS..!!!!!
Of course it won’t how do you know it want….
OK…here goes…First…Bernie, welcome back! We have missed you!
Second…Wxman, and MJ, your input is always appreciated, even if it doesn’t weem like it
Third…Chris, you can calm down now, the CATS pulled it out, but it was ugly! Lots to work on!
Fourth….I truly enjoyed the weather today, and over the weekend, but I am ready for it to cool down where I can pull out the sweaters, since it is almost December..
And lastly, I just want to tell everyone who posts here that I love and appreciate each and every one of you, and I really enjoy the ‘weather bickering’ that goes on from time to time….as long as it stays in good fun, and doesn’t get nasty.
think of it this way…if we all agreed on the weather, how BORING would this blog be? 😉
Everyone have a GREAT night! thanks for the update, Chris. Still waiting for your winter weather thoughts….
GO BIG BLUE!!!!
Vinny, your Steelers have been beaten by my Bengals twice this year! But I still love ya! 😉 Sorry this is so ling, Chris.
Wow can’t believe the Cats struggled that much with Miami. A lot to work on for sure, but a ton of potential for the cats. The GFS is still going strong with the fun and games for next week. Just hoping I’ll be able to get home for Thanksgiving!
Congrats on your Bengals… They have our number this year, that’s for sure…
…
We struggled, they hit lights out from 3-land, and we still won…
Relax folks… This team gonna’ be great before it’s all over…
Because when was the last time we had a half-foot of snow on the ground in November? The statistics say it WON’T happen. But it’s fun to look at the GFS and dream right now.
haha…couldn’t help it. 😉 hey…it took the Bengals ten years to sweep the Steelers again…don’t worry about WHO DEY…the Steel Curtain will be OK.
the 12z euro does bring a quicker shot of cold air for thanksgiving, day 10 on that run. However I’ve learned not to go against the EURO which is not nearly as cold as the GFS but the same the consistency of the GFS has been there.
WXman I guess you are right there its been a long time.WXman I’m sorry I guess that didn’t sound very good I should have asked you that question a little different….
Where to invest?