Good Wednesday every one and Happy Veteran’s Day. The blog would like to say a big THANK YOU to all the men and women who have and are currently serving our Country! Make sure you find the time today to say thanks as well. I guess we will do our share by giving our vets some fairly nice weather out there today.

The weather over the next week or so will be on a  little temperature roller coaster ride that will have it’s ups and downs. We will take a look at that and look toward the North Pole to see what is happening up there and how it may impact our weather down here.

Here is how the forecast breaks down…



– Today will see a mix of sun and clouds and temps in the 50s for highs. Winds will be rather gusty from the northeast.

– Thursday will see more of the same with temps in the 50s for highs. Lows will be chilly with most areas near 30 to start the day.

– Friday into the weekend will see the roller coaster heading up the hill with readings climbing toward the 60s. Saturday looks like the warmest day as of right now. This will be a breezy time too.

– Changes begin to show up on the scene early next week as a storm rolls out of the plains toward the Ohio Valley. This will likely come in the form of a cutoff area of low pressure. You can see what I mean by “cutoff” by looking at the European Model for Monday and Tuesday…






That is a chilly and not cold pattern for much of next week that is showing up. The REAL cold remains bottled up in northern Canada but these closed lows produce there fair share of cold air. The above maps show a pretty good rain threat for Monday into Tuesday, but all that depends on exactly where the closed low sets up. Models do not do well in forecasting these things. Regardless… next week looks to average below normal as of right now.

The European Model then goes on to FINALLY show signs o taping the cold up in Canada by the end of next week…




You can see the trough digging into the eastern half of the country and that will be something to watch for.

I have talked a lot about the buildup of arctic air in northern Canada and toward the North Pole. This has been rather extensive for so early in the season. When will this decide to come south toward the US again? I like to look at the Arctic Oscillation Index and a view of the 10mb Temp anomalies. When you start seeing warming at this level over the north pole… this is usually a good sign the cold is getting dislodged and will likely be coming south at some point in the not too distant future. Take a look at what I am talking about…


Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation
When that happens… we usually get the Arctic Oscillation Index to go negative. This is usually a good teleconnection for a colder pattern taking hold across our part of the world. Following this index this summer and fall has worked out very nicely so far and this graph shows this…


As you can see… when it has been negative our temps have been cold around here. July and October featured record cold across much of the country and locally. When it was positive our temps averaged warmer than normal. Get the idea? The end of the graph shows the Index going positive… hence the warmth of late. The red lines are the forecast for the index and you can see it is forecast to go sharply negative over the next few weeks. Hmmmm…

See… there is a method to my madness after all!

I will have another update later today so check back. Until then… take care.