Good afternoon, folks. Our day started out with another light snowfall that caused all kinds of traffic issues. That system has moved on and now it’s time to focus on additional snow makers lining up to impact our weather.Yes, I said lining up.
The next arrives later Thursday in the form of a clipper. This will bring gusty showers ahead of it with a quick change to light snow and snow showers behind it…
Some minor accumulations will be possible Thursday night and Friday morning. Leftover flurries and snow showers would then hang around into a blustery and cold Friday.
The weekend system is still on our weather menu, but the details on how it’s prepared are still to be figured out. I want to continue to stress to folks to NOT get caught up in one model or one model run. Just look back at the past 24 hours worth of model runs and notice how none of them look the same. It’s important to try and find trends in what the models are showing.
The two trends I’m seeing at the moment…
1. The models have a fairly moisture rich setup from late Saturday through Super Bowl Sunday.
2. I’m not seeing a big “deepening” area low pressure.
The midday GFS illustrates my point, but goes about it in a kooky way that may being playing into a bias the model has…
That run brings a lot of moisture in from the south and southwest without any southern stream area of low pressure. The bias of the GFS is to overemphasize the front running disturbance coming out of the northern branch of the jet stream. That’s why you see the clipper looking low across the Ohio Valley.
It’s not the overall setup on the model is terribly wrong, it’s just probably playing up the wrong feature. One of the reasons I’m not seeing a deepening storm is we have several other systems pushing the one above. You will see these arrive into next week.
Check out the arctic shot that also comes early next week…
I will have another update later today. Enjoy the afternoon and take care.
So I’m confused. Does that mean we likely won’t get a snow storm this weekend?
Let’s hope that CB is correct and GFS is just being kooky. Those GFS maps have a very messy look to them, with the “0” line draped across the area for much of the event.
Chris, question for ya: you’ve mentioned a few times that a weather model will sometimes identify a system 7-10 days out, then completely lose it only to re-discover it a few days later. What criteria do the models typically bias against 6-7 days out that causes that behavior?
That 0 line on the maps posted isn’t even 0 at the surface. Those maps taken verbatim is all rain. This is the freezing line at 2 meters
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_132_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=132&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150127+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
Elvis says:
Kentucky raaaiiiin!
Just to clarify for someone who doesn’t now as much as some of the rest of you, *ahem ME ahem*, do we or do we not want/need the “deepening low” for a good snow across Kentucky?
The deeper the pressure there is, the stronger the system is, raises wind speeds. If it IS snow we are getting, you would want a system with deeper pressure.
Good question, Chris says not one model runs , but trends…imo, trends would suggest that fence sets up and richmond south lose, maybe gtown north wins.
Factor in CB says he does not see a deep low, that would suggest we could be on the cusp of “nothing to see here”.
BTW, figures that if we really did a blizzard chase, it 100% figure it would be a bust. Think about it! 😉
Not really a bust unless you went to Atlantic City or NYC. From Long Island NY and states north it was a legit blizzard.
That’s where we would have gone since not enough time to go further 😉
Thanks for the info, folks!
Also, know*.
A stronger low would mean the low would track further north and could turn into a lake cutter that is not want you want if you want snow. Me personally I could careless Im ready for spring and warmer temps. This winter has done everything but not impress me and Im officially burnt out and over it especially with these 0.1-1.0 snows that’s pitiful. Besides the overachiever last week that’s about the only real decent snow’s we got and some got it and some didnt.
If low from the north deepens there in more cold air to play with. Bad part is if strengthens it will pull further north resulting in a cold KY Rain.
I hope we get a measurable snow this weekend in Bowling Green. Even my 2 year old daughter is feeling the frustration of winters in South Central Ky. She threw a fit this morning because there wasn’t enough snow on the ground to play in.
Computer generated forecasts look to be on to something. Rain with backside flurries as usual. Get ready for a cold Kentucky Rain. Elvis had it right, just a few decades early.
I look at Southern storms like this
1) the low moves north of Kentucky
2) the low moves too far south or there is not enough cold air for it to snow
3) the low never develops or gets lost in abyss
4) or it runs the fine needle and we get some significant snow.
Imo that makes the odds less than 25%.
warm air will win the tip ball
75% of the time.
More like 90%.
yeah even clippers now are a fifty-fifty proposition
A deepening low pressure also means its likely to track northwest since it is stronger. so not deepening is a good thing if you want snow instead of rain.
The models are currently showing rain here, changing to snow. Soooooooooooooooooo, no snow for us
Given up on the Super Bowl snow…Fat lady hasn’t started singing yet but she is sitting down eating dessert..
And it’s delicious!
Whatever comes Sunday will be rain followed by flurries and 2 or 3 dry cold days before it warms up and rains for the next system. This area has gotten pretty easy to forecast in Winter just roll out the same forecast with each storm every 4 days the accuracy rate would be sky high.
the euro has now shifted north
majority of the snow is going to be in Indiana.
it’s only Tuesday
I will hang in there till Friday
chris said check the trends
right now they’re not looking good.
One model run is not a trend. a trend = a pattern, multiple runs are required to see a trend.
I get what you’re saying
but that model has been shifting the significant snow line further north everyday.
I am not giving up on a decent snow
but to think that it’s going to make a dramatic shift back south might be a little too optimistic
The system for this weekend looks fairly healthy pretty decent amount of moisture to work with. Looks like rain or a mix possibly to start , but quickly changing to snow and plenty of good moisture available. Its has decent potential.
welcome back my friend
I thought you were serious about giving up on this winter.
I am glad you’re back your intelligence adds a lot to the dialogue.
Don’t get me wrong I’m over this winter been super frustrating for snow lovers. However that’s been the trend this winter (snow frustration) for me or us. We shall see what happens this weekend.
A directional pattern 😉 It could waffle, but what is the general average direction of the deviation or waffle?
Example:
+12, -10, +11, -9, +8, -7, +6 This trend is going up and down, but the overall trend is down. Same logic for system flow- usually, but not always.
One model does not equal a trend but 10 years of experience does… 🙁
The weather channel is calling for 40 Sunday with rain and 25 for a high Monday. This is going to be our winter, several ups and downs, with rain.
33/32 blues
Chris I just want to say thank you for giving us so much information. It sure defines how hard your job is and I appreciate your blogs and updates you give. Thank you!
Look CB – Just make it snow, will ya! 😉