Good Wednesday to one and all. Today is a very nice weather day and it’s likely to be the best day we see for a while. Think of this as a one day break from the winter weather potential because another clipper works our way tomorrow. I’m still watching the potential for a bigger system to impact our weather by Super Bowl Sunday.
The clipper zips in here Thursday with very gusty winds. Those gusts may reach 35mph at times as the cold front swings through. Temps will spike toward 40 ahead of that front and will crash behind it. Rain showers will develop early in the morning and I can’t rule out a touch of frozen stuff at the start.
Snow showers and flurries will then kick in behind the front by late Thursday and carry us into early Friday. Those may put down some light accumulations and the NAM is showing this…
The Hi-Res NAM is also picking up on some light stuff…
That could be enough to cause some slick travel conditions by Friday morning. The rest of your Friday is a cold one with some flakes flying around. Highs will struggle to get out of the 20s, but gusty winds will make it feel a whole lot colder.
That brings us to Super Bowl weekend and the potential for a much bigger winter weather system. Several of the overnight model runs decided to jump toward a stronger low that tracks right on top of the bluegrass state. That would push the best snows north of the bluegrass state IF the models are correct. Given how much variance and jumping around we’ve seen from each of them lately… it’s a BIG if.
The GFS shows snow to rain to snow…
The Canadian shows a similar look…
The new European Model is coming in with a less amplified solution and more of a eastward tracking low across the region.
As I have said with each and every solution the models have been spitting out in recent days (and there have been many), don’t get too caught up in any one set of runs. Get us within 48 hours of the event and we will see where things stand.
For those hoping for an early spring… that’s probably not in the cards again this year. February has a lot of storm threats to go along with cold shots. I’m not sure how I feel about that. Yes, I like my winter, but you guys know how I get once February rolls around. I’m pretty much ready to roll into spring by that point. 🙂
I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Meh, looks like a lake cutter to me. Bring on spring and the charcoal grill!
Im ready gor spring. Stick fork in this winter.
33/32 and waa won again .
I hope solution gives all of ky rain with potential sunday storm. I think ive give up on any snowfall bigger then a covering on the car for this winter
Not ready for spring just yet! Let’s go out w a bang!! Good day all!!!
Amen Brother. There’s 4 seasons in Kentucky and only one of them has a chance at decent snows. Spring will follow on it’s own due course along with the warmer weather due that time of the year. Let me enjoy my winter and I won’t bother anyone enjoying the other 9 months of the year .
I’m with Ya!!! Bring on spring!
Since I’ve already driven on ice that caused handfuls of people to spin out, I’ll just take whatever comes. Snow, ice, rain, bullfrogs, goats…it doesn’t matter. Nothing I say or do is going to change what the weather wants to do.
Do I have ideas as to what might happen? Sure…but who cares?
Go with trend, it’s going to go right on top of ky, rain. Yes let’s wait till Friday and see, but if your going with t trend, no snow storm for us.
Elvis was a prophet.
I said yesterday it was rain then flurries. Just run the same forecast with each storm until about late March then you can eliminate the flurries at the end.
So the models have essentially just flipped. The GFS and Canadian show a stronger low and now the Euro show a weaker low. I really thought this would be the one. Not that it still won’t be, but trends and trends. Thanks for the update CB.
Bring Spring. Looks as though Knox Co. will make it into February without a measurable snow. That’s following up less than 5 inches of total snow last winter. With winters like this, you have no reason to look forward to snow. Looking forward to 50’s from here on out.
Uh, why no mention of the record (?) low temps this morning.
I went outside to start the car earlier and was shocked at how cold it felt, like string of expletives shocked. It felt even colder than the 14 degrees I found it to be. It was nice to step on the little remaining snow and not have your footprint turn into mud immediately like it has since Saturday.
I didn’t catch what the WKYT forecast was for the low this morning, but today’s says the record low for today was 15 back in 1936. I can’t imagine last night’s being that much different. I see a lot of low numbers out there and it seems unlikely that there weren’t some new record lows set. I went back and looked at the blogs from yesterday and I didn’t see anything talking about temps last night.
I think that was a typo that you saw. The record low for today in Lexington is -15 degrees.
Rodger says western Kentucky could hit the snow jackpot IF those models verify. Much of Western KY been without any snow since November. He’ll take it!
What tells you WKY could see snow? I can’t tell on these models..
You always want to be north and west of the 0 or 540 line to get frozen precip. That’s not precise but is the best indicator. WKY is north and west on at least two of those maps. Hopefully, the low goes further east though.
North of the 1st blue line would be ideal
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_126_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=126&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
Thanks Chris. Going to enjoy the sunshine today. We’ll see what the weekend brings later. Have a great Wednesday everyone.
Operatioals models don’t look to good..However there still a lot of spread on the ensembles members…Still along ways to go before sunday..
UK football recruiting= Kentucky weather forecasting models
?
I get it, they both look good on papet, but when the day to sign (snow) we get 2 and 3 stars ( not much snow)..the 5 stars go other places (snow goes some here else ( either Ohio state, michigan, ) shoot Texas has got more snow
4 days out – models show rain = everyone convinced this is just a typical cold rain with snow to our north.
4 days out – models show snow = everyone needs to wait because models will change and we must wait until hours before the precip starts before we actually know what will fall.
That pretty much sums up almost the last two decades of Kentucky winters. Until the trend is broken, I will believe that every weather model that has predicted snow 4 days out will end up wrong. If the system is not sitting south of us two days away, then I consider us out of contention.
It’s probability. Since the net results have been on average cold rain, showing rain four days out would would greatly increase probability it will be rain.
That said, never thought this year would lower the bar even more than Honey Boo Boo. I thought the bar was already as low as could go.
to be fair I have to ask, what happen to ARTIC AIR predict5ed weeks ago??? 2nd I think its time we don’t bother with trying point out what models r saying 5-6 days out. wait till 3 days as the MODELS never tell the truth. 3rd Bailey if u like winter u cant be conflicted.lol Feb is still winter I think so u have deal with it.loll
Spot on Rolo. I agree with everything you said and your grammatical presentation (improved but still lacking) was the best I can ever remember. Article air was talked about last week and kind of fizzled. Wondered about that myself. Give the goats a hug for me. 😉
Article air means my grammars stinks too.
🙂
Arctic…. And feels pretty arcticky’ to me this morning. Brrrrr! 🙂
You can have the artic air its pretty useless when no snow comes with it. Im not talking about flurries and snow showers that comes with the artic front.
Well we just had one of the most beautiful snows in Lexington recently, so I’m not complaining. 😀
Granted, I’ll give you that it was a surprise overachiever for some folks.
TWC has jump the conclusion that this will be a snow event for most western,ky and northern part of state. It’s all subject to change like Chris said gotta wait at least 24-36 hours prior the storm to hit to get an idea what;s going to happen.
64 on up are the usual targets and have been for bigger systems. Like the Talking Heads said, “Same as it ever was”.
I have a pretty good idea on how this will play out. Go with the trend accumulating snows southern and central Indiana. Kentucky primarily a rain event. Any questions?
I personally like where Louisville is sitting for this wkends storm.
I’m hopeful that at least half the state can also get in on the fun.
Hang in there snow lovers.
Ha! You go right ahead and think that and I’ll think reality, keep the faith.
Unless it’s ice…. Dun dun duuuuun!
Nope that’s not happening either cold rain upper 30’s backside flurries and snow showers.
When all 3 types of precipitation is on the table the trend the odds are to favor a cold rain with backside flurries and snow showers. I see no difference with this system. As usual the accumulating snow will be 50-100 miles north of Kentucky. Wait watch and see. Until mother nature shakes up this pattern that we are in this will be how this winter plays out. I remember when a low pressure system would track through Tennessee that would be a given for a decent snow in the commonwealth. Not no more now the low needs to track through Alabama for a decent snow, yeah well good luck with that happening this winter.
Very cold here this a.m. inCarter Co….11 frosty degrees…feels like arctic air. In 1987 in late March, we had a snowstorm hit us with a foot of snow. Fortunately, our schools were scheduled for spring break so we did not miss any school, and roads didn’t stay icy for very long. However, that snow lay on the ground forever….didn’t think it would ever melt. So yes, we can have some late, big storms even in late March ( think 1993) and even in early April. Just saying, look out. Winter is coming, but I don’t like it as much when it hits late. Keep scanning the skies and computer models, CB, and thanks for keeping us in the loop of weather info.
interesting story Monday night on WBIR in Knoxville, talking about winter/spring; they give forecasts for Knoxville up to SE KY and said February was looking like temps being 5 to 10 degrees below normal and look for ice storm possible mid month, so I think Mr. Bailey is right in saying there will be no early spring for us, unless some freaky tropical air starts blowing our way.
Given the models can not even get a blizzard correct, hours before the event- seems I would not trust a model over two weeks out 😉
The models need some super serious review. They seem not to “learn” from their missed through a fancy word called regression. This presumes the data is even accurate that the models use in the first place.
Stop the madness! 🙂
Rodger asks why any station worth its salt would even attempt to “predict” an ice storm 2-3 weeks away?! That’s hilarious. Predicting an ice storm in a NOWCAST is tricky enough! Rodger in Dodger!
what’s hilarious is all these mets predicting a bitter cold and snowy winter; I wonder if their boss ever questions them, and to this day not one has ever said “well maybe I was WRONG”
those words will never be uttered from a Met
exactly … how would you like to be a Met in New York City about right now – talk about eating crow !!
So what about south central KY Adair, Taylor, Metcalfe county area. Are we looking at any snow this weekend??
Your looking at a cold rain
My optimism meter has hit zero because I’ve seen this song and dance too many times. A track that brings rain changing to snow is one that will usually only produce rain with a few worthless flurries on the backside. When we have the cold air, it pushes storms to the south. When the air is not too cold, the storms drive up the west side of the Appalachians flooding us with warm air. Even the bigger storms we saw last year always flirted with warm air aloft that produced sleet and lowered our snow totals. Bah humbug.
You snow lovers are so pessimistic. For one it’s a matter of how strong the system is as Chris stated yesterday it more than likely won’t be as strong as the models where predicting last night. The 12 GFS is showing what I am talking about with a much lighter event but an all snow event. I love reading the blog but HATE all the opinions of these narrow minded pessimists who are butt hurt because they haven’t seen a good snow in a while. I for one hate the snow I work outside but I love tracking weather.
Should you not be working right now or are you on vacation???
I’m working right now. On lunch. I check the models on my phone along with checking updates of various weather blogs. Ain’t technology great! Except for weather forecasting models lol.
lol..Models are not perfect but there fun to follow..Hope this system blows back up to at least give someone in NKY or NWKY a chance at a decent snow..Only snow i want at this point is at least a foot or nothing..
Its not an all snow event according to the 12z sorry http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_099_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150128+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model but it is weaker than last nights runs
Hey Andy..
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
The surface temps do rise above freezing but if you check out air temps and the dominant precip type predicted this particular model is showing snow for Lexington and points north.
12z gfs shows pretty much all snow event.
Oh and BTW to prove my point primarily all snow event GFS precip type for same time frame as you posted Andy.
http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_PTYPE_99HR.gif
so get your facts straight before trying to start something.
there is only one Coffee lady allowed on this blog.
Stop talking about people’s butts!
Queen started it!
Weaker looking system…Weaker northern stream..No phasing..at least the whole state is covered in light precip..
Too much negative minds over a snow event. We will take what ever nature and the lord gives us!!!!!!!
Guess you could call them festive flakes..Bubba knows the term..
I’m so ready for spring!!! Can’t wait to hike, go 4 wheeling and gardening!
Lets all go to the Gulf…
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
My hope is that the entire state gets snow or the entire state gets all rain. No in betweens…. 🙂
I’ll take rain over a small snow, since washes the salt away rather than added to the amounts already on the roads. Salt dust in the eyes when jogging is messed up.
This storm is a player for Kentucky, and more than just cold rain and festive flakes (at least for Lexington and points west/ E-town points north).
All of the state or nothing! Eaaayyaaaaaah!!!
Well, it can miss north KY, since they need to see a little snow humility too 🙂 😉
FREEZING RAIN IN ARGILLITE, KY!!! Everything is a sheet of ice!