Good afternoon, folks. The temperatures out there today are a little colder than I originally thought they would be. Of course, that happens when you start the day off with some single digits. While that’s nice and all, the focus of the forecast is on a clipper for Thursday and the potential for a bigger system this weekend.
The clipper zips in here quickly on Thursday with very gusty winds and falling temperatures. Winds may reach 35mph at times. Gusty showers will be ahead of it with some snow showers and flurries flying behind our front. The best chance comes Thursday night into Friday morning and we could see some light accumulations…
Minor accumulations will be possible to start the day on Friday. Winds will continue to be gusty and that will make the temps in the 20s feel like the teens.
Our weekend system continues to show up as clear as mud. The GFS runs 4 times a day and it has yet to show the same solution twice with the weekend storm. Last night it had a strong storm cutting into the Great Lakes. It’s latest run shows no such thing…
Taken at face value, that’s a 1″-4″ snow on that model. That’s something I wouldn’t be doing with any run of the GFS or any of the models at this point. Still… someone on Sunday will spout out these nonsensical words ” The GFS nailed this system several days ago”. When a model spits out 50 different solutions, it’s bound to get one of them right. 🙂
It’s not as If the other models are performing any better, but they don’t get the false praise the GFS gets in this country.
Speaking of the other models, the GFS Ensembles are not impressed with a big storm and show a wave of low pressure sliding across the Tennessee Valley…
That’s a far cry from the Canadian Model…
Get us to the 48 hour mark before this system forms and then we can talk in greater detail about what impact it will have on our weather.
One way or the other, Super Bowl Sunday is likely to be very messy across our part of the world.
I will update things later this evening. Take care.
exactly….nice post CB.
I’m pretty excited for this system. It has the models, forecasters, and all of us confused and sour about the winter we’ve had to this point.
February is going to be fun. Sorry, Mr. Bailey. February is still winter season. You can start complaining March 1st, how is that for compromise?
Thanks CB!
Ditto on your perspective in the post!
Don’t know why we (mets as well as us arm chair mets) all keep dwelling on the GFS as it has been the worst model this year in any terms. The Canadian has been much he more accurate of all this far.
Troy, I agree with you on that statement. The Candian does not seem to flip/flop as much and also handles the cold air better. The GFS and Euro seem to always be opposite until a few days before. As CB says not one model run can predict what is going to happen. Until this system moves on shore out west it is anybody’s quess.
Well as of now if we take the Canadian model at face value with this weekend storm we would have heavy rain and no snow.
I like how the recent posts have gone into depth about the models. Thanks for taking the time to break all that information down. I feel like I am slowly understanding some of these maps.
“Winter” ends in mid-march right? I am thinking February is fair game. In a couple weeks I will be camping in the Virginia Highlands, hoping for snow, and thinking about all you non-winter-hikers! I hope we get a ton to snow. The more the better.
I am all over that. I love winter back packing trips – cold and snowy! Me vs. the elements. Who wants to go when it is sunny and 65 degrees?
Thanks Chris. I’d agree with Bubba on your take. It’s one thing to pick a favorite model. Great forecasters add experience and good old forecasting to what the models show.
I get all these different models confused but aren’t they singing the GFS praises because it had the NYC Blizzard closest?
Yeah there was a met I believe it was CNN that was praising the new GFS for nailing the blizzard correctly. He went on to say millions of dollars were used to update the GFS model and it came through. It was the first real test for the new and improved GFS and now its proven to be the most accurate of any model. Really!?! After one storm the new GFS is proven??? Just like that?? Its going to take more than one storm or blizzard to make me believe.
no what happened was all the Mets put all their eggs into the Euro model
which is considered the gold standard in the modern era
I would have probably done the same thing if I was a met in the Northeast
but if they had taking a consensus of all the models the track of the storm would had been predicted correctly.
what a difference of 50 miles can make in regards to snow accumulation
I am the first person that gets frustrated with all these models but when you think about it, it is accomplishment that these models predictions are near perfect.
Think about how they have to factor in all the elements worldwide.
Huh??? Models have been complete junk how in the world are they near perfect? Perfect and weather model should not be in the same sentence 9 times out of 10. Swimsuit model and perfect in the same sentence much much more feasible and believable.
What Im pointing out was how this one met who works for CNN explain himself on his thoughts of the new GFS giving all the praises to the vastly improved GFS. So he says and believes. What I’m saying is you absolutely cannot and must not think the updated GFS is king of all models after one storm. Let’s see how it performs with other storms before crowning the new GFS the most reliable model out there.
Cnn still exists, lol
CNN? That dinosaur of a news outlet?
just think about it for a minute the whole macro picture.
I am NOT saying that they can predict where a snow band is going to set up or the correct amount of snow accumulation 3 to 4 days outs.
but they do let you know if you’re a player or not concerning a future event.
at this moment we are talking about a couple hundred miles about where is the going to go. And this storm has not even formed.
sorry abo
ut the English language
I find it difficult to write on a cell phone.
I think everybody knows where I’m coming from with my last statement
Looking juicy! I’m excited to see what this brings to us!
For what’s its worth Accuweather has their map up for the Sunday storm. It has this as a north of the Ohio River storm. They miss predicting the NYC blizzard less than a day away but they can predict rain for us 5 days out. That is how predictable our weather is here in Winter.
I really wouldn’t trust Accuweather for much. They don’t even seem to even get temperatures right hardly ever.
AKA , inaccurateweather
I wonder what model they use sometimes maybe a dartboard.
Accuweather also believes you can put water in a paper bag and get positive results.
You can. It’s the best method ever devised for creating soppy brown paper.
As far as accuw…trends say they would be close to correct, but let’s hope somehow, someway that this can bring us here in cky some good snow (at Least Here in richmond). I would take a 4 inch snow with this thing, rather than a big storm turning to syrong and bring us rain, with backside 1/2 inch of snow.getting
I think they are basing the storm on what all the other storms have done this year and most years past. I hate it but they are probably right. I keep saying all you have to do is reissue the same forecast with each storm in the Winter around here.
All i can say about the GFS is if you don’t like what it’s showing wait 6 hrs and it will show you something completely different..Probably could say the same about the Euro..As it has done a complete 180 also today..Bet the folks in the upper Ohio valley are panicking right now..Went to over a foot of snow to nothing..lol
It’s just like the Civil War. Kentucky is a border state. Any given glob of moisture may hit us on a Union day and give us snow, or it may hit on a Confederate day and give us rain.
150 years in the making…
Lincoln and Lee would be proud. 😉
So would the other 118 counties!!
What do counties have to do with that statement? 😉
This comes from a Louisville Met
The exact storm track is still not known at this time, but it appears this system will bring us a soaking rain during the day Sunday.
Once the system moves east, sharply colder air will be pulled down into the Ohio Valley changing any lingering rain over to snow.
Light accumulations would be possible at this time but it appears the heavier snow accumulations with Sunday’s storm will be to our north across central Illinois, central Indiana, into western and northern Ohio.
Nope
I hope your correct Chris. There is a reason for me to read your blogs while living in Shepherdsville. I never mean to offend you with my replies, I just want a good snow (6 inches or more that last for a few days). I believe your far more honest and accurate with your forecast. No offense, but I like Brian Goode as well. He is a snow lover.
“Nope” to which part? Now, now, thou shalt not weather-tease!
That met is going on the Canadian Model idea
Good things out of Canada:
Beer, Rush and the creators of South Park 🙂
So you do like South Park. I have wondered. 🙂
Thanks so much for all of the updates and attention you give this blog, Chris.
18z nam wants to also trend to the rainy solution for Sunday just a tad outside how far the nam can see but you can tell the NAM’s thought process on the warmer solution on this particular run.
I have a few random thoughts about why snow lovers are so pessimistic around here. First models always tease a week away then we get inside of 4 days and realize the same old tired scenario plays out. Snow heads thru Indiana and Ohio, leaving KY and WV in the 35 degree rain. We are so close yet so far away, many times 50 miles makes all the difference. But yet it happens time and again. If we were in Alabama or Georgia we would know our chances were slim and none and not get excited. But I think it hurts more for those of us who think we had a chance to win than those who knew they weren’t in the game from the beginning
I agree my fellow WV friend…even up here in upslope land its been kinda blah this winter …still time for a comeback but down a few scores heading for the 4th quarter
So far in Huntington we have just over 1 inch total for the season. That’s pathetic even for here. And it doesn’t look to get any better anytime soon. At least where you are the backside/upslope gives you a little bit. We don’t even get that.
Wild since if anyone would get smacked with snow, you would expect mountain folk 🙂
Heck, that is one of the reasons CB probably moved for awhile was snow luv 😉
Just don’t use a deflated football. 😉
So far looks better on the GFS..Cold still around and stronger band of snow ..Good run…
the euro and gfs
are basically on the same side on their last runs
Bad attitude is from being let down so many times during the last 17 years. A small portion of the state gets in on a little bit of the snow, but nothing like it was back during the 70’s 80’s and 90’s. SEKY had very little snow last year and it looks like we go into February this year with no measurable snow.
Meteorological winter ends in a little over four weeks and then you start fighting temps with every system that rolls in. Guess that’s not a bad thing considering that we have been fighting temps (33/32 rule) for 17 years now.
The frustration makes one wonder why they subject themselves to continual slow torture 3 months out of the year. I’ve been right there with you for the past 17 years or so on this blog. Ive tried kicking the ball more times than I care to think about. 😉
I guess if we could get out of these long stretches of below average high temps it would make things better. It looks like here in SEKY that we are going to end up with 23 out of 31 days with below average day time highs. It will average out close to normal temp wise since 19 night time lows were above normal for the month. A winter with no snow would be better with better day time highs. Normal January highs are mid-40’s and we have spent 15 days with highs only in the 20’s and 30’s.