Good Thursday afternoon, gang. Our weekend is just around the corner and it appears the odds for snow are increasing across our region. We have a couple of systems to watch. One is blowing through here now and will bring snow showers tonight and early Friday. The other is the Super Bowl storm system we’ve been tracking here for more than a week.
Winds will continue to crank this afternoon as temps spike then crash behind a cold front. A few showers will be with us and those will change to snow showers late this evening. A northwesterly wind flow will set up and that’s likely to bring a decent period of snow showers and flurries late tonight into Friday morning.
Some light accumulations will be possible across the central and east…
Another morning of slick roads will be possible. Temps on Friday will drop through the 20sĀ with teens for wind chill readings.
That brings us to the weekend storm system. The Canadian Model had been the lone holdout in taking our low farther north into the Ohio Valley. That changed with the latest run…
It’s only one run of one model, so temper those expectations. š
The GFS continues to go back and forth a bit with how it wants to play the system. Here’s the latest snowfall map from that model…
As I’ve been saying for the past few days, let’s get this thing inside 48 hours to see what kind of continuity we’re getting from the models. Throwing snowfall forecasts out there at this point would be absurd. Do we have the potential for a winter storm? Yes. Is it a for sure thing? No.
Very cold air follows that up for Monday and Tuesday and then another system tries to take aim at us by the middle of the week. That one will have even colder air to work with.
I leave you with regional radar…
Another update comes later today. Take care.
it’s all happening…sorry if anyone wanted an early spring.
Expect no different than what we have already seen this winter.
Lol the optimist c-BIV and the pessimist Andy Rose posting at the exact same time. Ironic.
Just a realist š
NO, you’re the Joker to my Batman. š
The Canadian model wanted it to go north because Canada is north…
Oh, I’m SOO glad I get to see a legend and I now know that the darkest blue is six inches, and the next shade is 8
Oh, I get it now. And that explains the UK, Euro and Japanese model’s biases.
š
Thanks Chris! I would venture to say IF the models look the same this time tomorrow, Chris will go into winter storm threat mode š
Rodger is thinking this general model agreement 2-3 days away is a very good sign. Fingers crossed! Rodger in Dodger!
Wow…..Haven’t had so much as a DELAY in Cabell County this year (which is pretty ironic since they scheduled in about 20 MAKEUP DAYS for us) Desperate for some white stuff. May the snow gods be feeling generous in our neck of the woods! Thanks for the updates!
I really hope this forecast comes true. But the locals still have rain for Sunday. Accuweather still thinks the storm will move back north. I hope this is the one that breaks our long standing pattern. But I won’t believe it till I see snow falling Sunday without the mention for rain.
Jimbo, where you located?
I am very close to Huntington WV in the snow dead zone.
im liking the looks of this jimbo for ur location as well as mine
Only thing certain about Sunday is I will only watch a few mins of the super bowl. The older I get the less I care about the super bowl. I seen an article not long ago about baseball closing the gap with football. 10 years ago that was unthinkable.
NL central will be a fun league to watch this year. I never thought I say this but the Cubbies will be a team to deal with in the next year or two.
Yeah the Cubs and the cards should be the front runners. I believe those two teams are the best with Pitt, Cin, and mil, fighting for third.
Seems legit, because SE KY is mostly left out
What’s that got to do with the Cubs? Oh, wait… … … Never mind…
Well h### I guess I might of jump the gun by blowing the dust of the motorcycle. This winter might just have some fight in it after all, we shall see.
yeah I never seen you so bummed out the past few days.
Just curious, Chris, why don’t you ever show UKMet and JMA models? Do they not have a good track record for U.S. in winter or anytime for that matter?
The Weather Channel is now on board for a big snow event from at least I-64 and points north.
http://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/560859913581522944/photo/1
Is that the one that predicted a blizzard for NY. It’s going to go north or south or right smack across ky. only time will tell.
I think this is a near all or near nothing event. It is either going to smack us or lightly tap us. No seeing in between. By tap, I mean mainly north KY and a little leftover after-snow for the most.
Seems a decent shot, but the same could be said for a lot of the others. Lucy says, “Football has been very very good to me”.
Sorry cubs and cards fans the ground hog will say the cincy reds will take over NL central. Back to the weather this is the most potential since the one we got back in November. LET SNOW LET IT SNOW!!!
The Red cant take control of there own destiny even when it’s handed to them. Cubs have an excuse they’d been horrible with no talent and no proper management that has changed. The tide is turning for the Cubbies.
Cubs will not finish above .500 this year. Guaranteed.
wow. michigan is being left out again. i thought being in a northern state we would get lots of snow. maybe i should move south for snow. LOL
Here in Bowling Green it will probably be a repeat of the Super Bowl storm from a year ago. It stayed above freezing all day and night and the changeover to snow never occured.
I don’t think “potential for some” comes close to covering what happened today in NE KY in regards to the icing event given the State of Emergency in Lawrence and not much better situations in other counties in the area. Did the NWS office over that area issue anything at all?
Twice last winter in SE KY and now this time, the models or something has to get better at getting these poor people some warning equal to the risk they might be facing when it comes to icing events. I hope there aren’t any series injuries or loss of life resulting from all of this over there.
If this sort of thing happened the same way in Fayette or similar to larger urban area, you’d see some epic level you-know-what hitting the fan after the first time.
Nothing truer has ever been said than that last statement
In life there going to be some slips in any regards, no such thing being perfect. How do you think the people survive back in the days before electricity was invented. they survive by living one day at a time with there own power. We take too much for granted depending on others and that’s whats wrong with our society today.
wow that’s deep …. for a moment I thought I had logged into a Tony Robbins blog
lol
Don’t think it was as hard to crash a horse back then as it is today driving a car and making the decision to drive to work or get your kids to school. Times are a little different today than before electricity .
I live in Greenup and the roads were absolutely undriveable…my hill is still ice
That is wild how it impacted east KY and not other areas. Had we not all got rain as well, it would not seem odd.
They salted Knox county is the reason there wasn’t problems here but they do that whether its 50 degrees or 20 rain or shine
I think Lawrenceville and Boys counties are in the Charleston WV NWS forecast area. They are notorious for waiting till an event to starts to issue any watches or warnings.
I mean Lawrence and Boyd. Auto correct isn’t all that great.
Maybe, everyone should just move to Louisville, or anywhere north of I-64.
Still love the snow chances. Lucy isn’t pulling the football this time.
I’m sticking with Winter Storm Alert Mode #2 of the winter season. You should see this by Saturday on the blog.
I do continue to feel for the southern and eastern part of the state. I couldn’t live there knowing how hard it is to get snow to fall, and accumulate to more than your ankles, if that.
I think the rain/snow line is going to be around Louisville to Lexington to Morehead. I`m a snow lover and I feel for those, like me, in eastern Kentucky. I live in Shepherdsville and I`m afraid we`ll be on the line, but if we can get all snow, being on the line could be a good thing.
Nope! Nearly all or nearly nothing. It will either smack a lot of us, or further north. So it is written!
Rolo’s goats supports this message. Maybe even the Goatrider in the Sky himself…..
The Outlaws or Johnny Cash. I hope we all get hit with the snow and several inches.
Well the models including the gfs had the highs for today much to low again. It seems the models consistently miss the actual temps. It is nearly 60 degrees in southern ky, a full 10 degrees higher than expected.
im with ya …I think its a thumper or like a lot of storm, 33 with rain
Trend buster or not….wait and see.
The waiting drives me CrAzY!!! I WANT snow- lots of it!
Can’t for the life of me figure out why people want Winter Storms. Saturday’s snow was fine. Five inches and gone almost before nightfall. That’s the only kind of snow to have. Here this morning, gone this evening.
Maybes CB will do his snow dance for us the appease the Snow Gods and in turn bring snow to the entire state…GO BIG BLUE
CB just stoked the flames with a tweet.
Given the trends and sentiment here, maybe CB should have added: For northern KY š
Truth
The=to
You guys are seriously over hyping this thing, even you guys north of i-64 where some snow is pretty much a sure thing. Just saying…
Just like Vegas, all or nothing. I will not even pretend to know which. Only the Goats of Gunchester know………
That sounds like a book that should be written.
I’d watch Bill “Rhymes With Veck” before the Rolocoaster”. š
Welp, Bailey, it won’t be a winter storm for southern Kentucky. This is a storm that will probably affect northern Kentucky as usual.
More 35 degree rainstorms for southern KY. Yeah, winter is awesome.
Rodger sees the afternoon Paducah NWS discussion saying the NAM is showing 6-8″ north of the Ohio River. Oops, that’s Indiana not Kentucky but that means some for KY too! Rodger!
18z NAM is just a weird looking run (funky) not in a bad way.
Post link
Im trying but from some reason Im having no luck with posting this link.
here is the old GFS operational http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=LVX
WPC (and this will change) has placed the I-64 corridor and points north in the moderate risk of 4+ inches of snow. South of the I-64 corridor is in a slight risk.
Currently, the #2 ranked GFS and NAM analog is a storm system from February 25-27, 1993 which dumped several inches on Kentucky and Indiana. So, upper air support for this impending storm favors a large snow storm somewhere in the region.
Thank you for posting this, Mike.
Temp hit 60 this afternoon in London
I wonder how Bryant feels about this weekends potential storm?
Haven’t seen him around in a while. Did he finally get banned for trolling? LOL
i think it goes something like this: “blowtorch” nothing to see here. Early Spring arriving in February folks.”
what do you think? lol
I remember Bryant. I think I remember reading a post about him not coming back maybe or something I could be wrong. But he was on the constant “blowtorch” talk. He really fit in actually.
Weather channel giving all rain for most of ky. Then turning cold Monday. Hope for a change. Can cold air win one time?
18z GFS is showing basically the same track as the 12z maybe a slight northward shift but not any considerable amount. But as I’ve seen many times before, 20-30 miles will make all the difference in getting hammered and a very light accumulation. Also showing more snow potential for central and eastern kentucky as the low scoots eastward.
18z GFS is showing a very similar track as the 12z maybe a VERY slight shift northward. But as it has been seen many times before, 20-30 miles can make all the difference between getting a significant snowfall and a very light accumulation. 18z also showing more snow on the back side of the low pressure system as it scoots eastward.
I say let the storm system reach land and then watch a couple of model runs to see what will be determined.
I thiwnk this storm might be overblown due to it being a wet snow.
the nam has Louisville at 34 degrees with snow falling.
talk about living on the edge.
Whoever gets the snow it will be a sticky wet snow with temps hovering around the freezing mark
these situations are always a toss up for Kentucky.
anybody south of 64 might as well give up on a storm system coming out of the southwest.
it is almost impossible to phase a system in the Deep South.
Wind in Lexington for my ride home was unbelievable! Averaged a whopping 5 mph pedaling into it! Looking forward to see what happens tonight thru Monday!
NAM IS worthless till the low is on door step.lol
this i endorse!
Then it’s a “now cast”.
The 18z GFS puts the rain/snow line right over the top of SDF. The 6z and 18z runs are usually not the best because of data input, but, again, I’ve seen this song and dance before. Forecasts that predict accumulations based on a rain/snow changeover never work out the way we hope. My pessimistic guess for SDF is a cold rain with a gradual turnover than produces little more than a dusting.
I am going to continue to respectfully disagree with this notion.
Louisville will be in the money on the snow this time around.
repeat…rinse….dry….repeat….rinse….dry.
right now for Louisville
I am going with the snow solution
but tomorrow is critical.
nothing we can do about it but wait.
I think all the model runs around noon tomorrow will begin to tell the story.
I hope the colder solution wins.
in a 50 50 toss up I like the hot air.
Most of your posts crack me up! Are you intentionally writing in a haiku-type format? You should compile them all and publish WWITWB’s KYWC Book of Winter Weather Poetry.
Not making fun. I think it’s pretty terrific, intentional or not.
So, has tonight’s snow been cancelled? There’s nothing on the radar east of West Virginia and I don’t see that changing.
Am I misreading CBs tweets? Is he talking about snow or colder air? Saying about better shot on Monday. I could read that as a back away from Sunday. Hence the problem with reading this stuff on a phone.