Good Thursday evening. Temps are taking a big tumble as snow showers and flurries get set to take over parts of central and eastern Kentucky. That could cause some issues for Friday morning travelers. That’s a smaller story compared to what looks to be heading our way by Super Bowl Sunday.
I am thisclose to pulling the trigger on a Winter Storm Threat. That will likely happen tonight if things continue to look like they do now. How do they look at the moment? The WPC has already placed much of the region in a slight to moderate risk of 4″+ of snow by Sunday evening…
That doesn’t include anything that falls Sunday night into Monday.
Here’s a preview of what some of the models are saying…
The European Model snowfall forecast…
The European Ensembles are just a tad farther south with the heavy snow band…
What if both of those are a little too far north with all that? I’m beginning to think that’s a real possibility. We’re seeing a trend developing with the track of the low. One that takes this storm northeast into Tennessee and then due eastward with even a fade toward the southeast once it gets to the Smokies. The Canadian Model was showing that earlier today and the GFS is heading that way…
I don’t put much stock in the NAM until within a day or so of an event, but it is doing something similar with the low by Sunday night…
Moral of the story… the potential for a winter storm to impact our region is increasing for Sunday and early Monday. I will update things and may pull the trigger later tonight. 😉
Enjoy the evening and take care.
Looks like the usual for Somerset.
And points south
Sick of the usual
thank you Chris
I am sure it’s going to be a long weekend for you.
What influences the track of the low?
Once the low visualizes and sees Kentucky the low will get influenced by the almighty dome effect taking the snow north to Indiana and Ohio. J/K lol
That is the best explanation ever posted a prelude. I’m still laughing.
That’s funny! I choked on my tea laughing when I read it!
Balloons are our friend!
Ninety nine red balloons. One hit wonder tribute.
and a red rubber ball
and my green tambourine
I’m feeling a tiny bit excited.
Hesitantly excited.
Tempered by doubt.
Hoping the track puts a big snow in southeastern Ky and everywhere else. Would love to a big snow this year!!!!!!!
just comparing some post and not trying to get any thing started here at all because i have the up most respect for chris bailey…..chris said in his current post he was beginning to believe that the european may be a little to far north with the axis of the heavy snow and i for 1 hope he is right but 1 of his good buddies at weatherbell which is joe bastardi thinks the axis of heavy snow will fall along i-70…..by the way just like chris mentioned in 1 of his earlier post that those of us wanting an early spring this year wasn’t going to be happy…..joe bastardi also said that we may be dealing with a lot of winter well into the non winter months………just some observations…….thanks for the great work mr. chris bailey.
Rodger has two observations about Joe Bastardi:
1) He isn’t always right with his predictions!
2) He’s always full of himself!
Rodger quit following him and his ego about two winters ago.
him and chris usually have the same out look on the weather.
That is not true.
chris himself said we would not have an early spring and joe bastardi said winter would last well into the non winter months…….i am not trying to show no disrespect to chris at all just trying to show how great minds think alike……geez you got to watch what you say on here…..WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I never said you were disrespecting. Do not put words in my mouth.
So, looking like a mostly rain event for us folks down in southeast Ky. Thank goodness.. I have no need for a winter storm. You northern folks can have it.
After seeing the latest run as compared to this morning, I’m not going to hold my breath on tonight’s snow event nor the snow event expected this weekend. Once again, anything south of I-64 will “most likely” only receive rain from this system.
Thank you for all you do Chris!
Lots of long hours…
I hope a bunch of the snow shifts to the south
Here’s hoping…
I just don’t know how to feel. I’m excited but yet a little disappointed. Hoping to get some snow measured in inches! … That might not happen here in the far eastern part of the state.
But ever how it measures up I know Chris will keep us well informed.
Thanks Chris. When you don’t get excited you don’t get disappointed. Still hoping for a little more southern shift though. Can’t help it. That’s my inner child popping out.
LOL, mine too. I’m ready to stomp my feet and demand some snow. 🙂
That is exactly how I feel.Oh if only that would work!!
its really amazing how the models change so much from 1 run to the next with the “storm” 3 days away….u would think they would atleast have some sort of idea …but NO
Hoping for a southern shift so we get some snow love in Southern KY. So tired of cold rain 🙂
Chris, what do you suspect for London this weekend? When you say it my be to far north does that mean SE KY still has a chance for a decent snow?
The weekend storm is mostly locked in now by the GFS and Euro give or take 50-150 miles….lol. My guess is NKy and SOh will battle on the rain snow line. Everyone south of that line is a mix then to light snow flurries at the end. SEKy and SWV looks to continue the same issue with WAA. Maybe the next storm will deliver mid next week…lol
Of course I hope I’m wrong ( or models) and we all get heavy snow this weekend, but hard to go against history. It has been almost 20 years since We have seen an area wide12+ inch snow from a single storm
Heck, Trend has to break sometime for CKY(Richmond)!!!!!! Right?
I see the football being placed on the Tee. Its almost Kick off time!
Wouldn’t that be FITTING, On Super Bowl Sunday we finally get to Kick the ball without it being pulled from underneath us. How about 8-12 inches for Richmond.
But lets first enjoy the CATS tip off and Get another Win. If they do go undefeated this year, the will have to go down as the “UNSTOPPABLE’S”
Rain or flurries for southern Ky. this place seems incapable of getting anything but rain.
Just tested positive for the flu. That may guarantee a good snow in Somerset since I’m bed bound.
Get well! If you lived in Chicago they even fine sick folks for not shoveling. Very lame.
The snow maps look very much like all the other storms of the past few years. Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Columbus are big winners. Louisville, Lexington to Huntington WV get the shaft again. Still time to shift tracks but looks again like we will be barely on the outside looking in again.
Upon further review it looks like the cities along I64 may get some snow just not the big amount further north. But I am still skeptical of anything especially since cold rain always seems to win out.
As long as the northern third of this thing doesn’t get that negative tilt toward the northwest, allowing the warm air torch to intrude, we just may get what a lot of people want. A good dumping. But remember; New England plays Sunday, and Mother Nature could deflate the wishes of snow lovers. I have to agree with Chris’ thinking. I believe some of us are in for a winter thumping; and I don’t even want to think about the cold that follows this thing.
Come on!!!! Somerset left out, as usual. So disappointed
Me too…ridiculous. lol
So far up here northern ky, the two weather men or stations that’s ten miles apart are saying to warm.
well 1 64 north looking at 6 -10 plus inches.. 2-4 SE KY E KY, but im sniffing out a slowing down storm as it moves to our east, if that happens SE/E KY could hit the jackpot on Monday!!! this track is not set in stone. watch tonite tomm show a lingering storm. this the REDNECK BUNKER forcast. join Redneck bunker handicapping page on facebook
When s the last time you saw a snow in SE ky. last more than an hour or two? No way we get 2 days snow ever.
What about W Ky Mr. rolo hehe
The feb 98 storm it snowed for like 3 or 4 days. I remember thinking when is this going to stop! Not the heaviest snow, but those snow showers that seemed to go on and on after the main storm.
Looks like I’m going to be smoking BBQ for the Super Bowl in the snow…a whole lot of snow 🙂
Just ONCE I d like to see the purple/red/blue snow lines down around Knoxville so SE Ky. could get at least ONE DECENT SNOW THAT DOESNT MELT OFF IN 2 HOURS!!
Me too, but the days when that happened with regularity ended about 20 years ago. The years before that, Knoxville, Morristown, and the Tri-Cities received at least one annual thumping (sometimes several). Anyone who would deny that natural climate change (not saying man made) isn’t real is a complete joke.
All the forecasts I see call for light snow to rain?!?!
II said a little while back that we may get more than we want and this one may give us the punch
Does it look like east TN might get any snow out of this weekend system
No, sorry Mae, but don’t feel bad…you’ll be in good company with the southern 1/3 of Kentucky.
All the maps and models you see above will paint another picture tomorrow. Nothing set in stone except for KY trends. There are many of you out there that know what I am talking about.
Thanks for the update CB and I hope this low can slide a few miles to the south.
I am like you. I need snow so I can make my winter money.
geez….it’s coming already!
get over it lol 😉
Well I’m hoping for a lot of snow for Whitley city ky myself I’m sick of getting all the rain
I think all of us Somerset folks need to just plan a ski trip or something so we can actually see some snow. I realize Chris can’t help it…no one can, but REALLY? If it doesn’t snow here Sunday, I may have a stroke. lol
The 0Z NAM moves the rain/snow line 30-50 miles to the north of SDF.
Shocking.
Wtf. Lol
The 0Z NAM has almost entirely all rain for SDF with a few flakes on the back end. Accumlations of a dusting. It could be wrong, but this fits with my pessimistic take this morning. A cold rain from SDF south with a few flakes at the end.
Sdf?
Louisville International Airport
you got to pay your dues
if you want to sing the blues
and you know it doesn’t come easy
Ringo Starr
at this stage prefer I would go with the gfs and the euro.
the Friday runs of the models will probably tell the story.
I hate to be negative, but those maps looks to have moved the main precipitation a little bit to the north from earlier runs. I’m not an expert, but a move to the north is not what KY needs. I know it’s just one run, but trends say that that you don’t want to be in the sweet spot with three days to go (at least as far as KY is concerned.)
I’ve already gave up on SEKY getting any of the snow. I’m now rooting for CKY to get in on some snow. It doesn’t snow in this part of the state, so wasn’t expecting it anyway.
I’ve given up on anything substantial ever again for the Nelson Co./Bardstown area. We are the new “fence”. I know, I know…we got that 5″ thumping the other night, but what good is it if it doesn’t stick around and melts before you’ve had a really good chance to even LOOK at it, much less, ENJOY it?! (Or vice-versa..) If we get anything major, it’ll fall about 10-12 miles to my north, and we get stuck w/ just enough flurry action (5 flurries) or rain (16 big drops) or ice pellets (2) to make DISH lose it’s signal for half a day….
Your billy dropped on the floor between whining.
Lol: binky is recalibrated to billy on autocorrect
0z NAM: not buying it yet. Let’s see what GFS, CMC and ECMWF have to say first.
good point
this storm has not even formEd
Remember the 00Z GFS and the 00Z NAM from this morning?
http://scontent-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/v/t1.0-9/10420396_10153772746955961_4147816177578889615_n.jpg?oh=ee465ca01b0fa62434abcde22fb81c90&oe=555720DF
and the 29 Jan 15 00Z NAM.
http://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10888528_10153772747170961_8615969581421275773_n.jpg?oh=b42080cd5edbe98ae1f4651fb2d21d78&oe=556750AC&__gda__=1431606970_c17703e47fca53360ff88178c4468487
Bye snow. It went to Chicago.
0z GFS followed suit with the 0z NAM. Starting to sweat now. Guess we’ll see what the CMC says next.
No need to sweat this was expected. Never fails
And the GFS joins the NAM and says ha ha you snow lovers just got punked!! No snow for us but our friends in Indiana and Ohio will do great.
lol. That’s all…
Honestly, it’s time to kill the hype on this one! Darn near every other pro met blogger, NWS, etc has the rain snow line inching along and north of the Ohio River.
So it gets cold next week, then a healthy storm system will push enough warm air for another miserable rain.
most overhyped winter ever. Somebody hit the kill switch
No hype at all.
GFS moves north, but not quite as far north as the NAM.
Rain/snow line along the Ohio River.
I’ve given up on the winter. It’s just not our year.
Maybe an inch at SDF on GFS.
Looks like it takes low from Memphis to just south of SDF to middle of West Virginia. Then the low goes due east. Slightly odd, but odd is what keeps snow out of KY.
I could see that happening. That’s the preferred track of most winter storms, so as to avoid EKY and western WV and dump rain.
Backtrack from storm over all but the north in 3, 2, 1……
Was hoping we rolled 7 or 11, but might be snake eyes. I suck at gambling.
Really? Positive trends for days, one bad run and we all bail?
Let’s see a few “negative” models runs before we cancel Christmas
#BBN
We’ve seen this song and dance before. Now aircraft ACARS data is getting part of system.
True, but the closer in the more weight for accuracy. Normally at least.
No bail for me. I don’t want the snow, but I know a lot of you all do. It is one set of runs. Remember last week? Cold air moved in and could not be scoured out and we get a half foot of snow in places. This storm won’t start for another 48+ hours. A lot of time left.
If this drifts to to the usual backtrack to oblivion, I suggest we treat the models as comedic fiction and disregard them until the final two runs before the event. Essentially Nowcast em’. Booyaah!
I’m still hopeful that this will at least amount to a decent backend accumulation for KY. The northern shift isn’t a trend yet, it’s a single run of two models. If the CMC, ECMWF, and UKMET show the same push north, I may get a bit worried then. We’re still over 48 hours out from the storm and neither piece has been sampled yet. I know déjà vu tells you this won’t end well but we’re far from the point of throwing in the towel. Just breathe and keep following along. It’s going to be a crazy ride.
48 hours away and we still can’t forecast the storm….Mother Nature rules us and always will – especially in the Ohio Valley.
We are essentially within 48 and the models appear to show a northern trend. CB post should be interesting.
Chris has been saying wait to 48 hous out and that will tell the story, chill folks ~:)
I don’t think CB meant disregard until 48, but the weight of accuracy should increase. If we should wait until 48, why even note about it until 48 out?
Seems counter intuitive.
Hoping its a northern trend due to my fathers health . We don’t need it want a snow that will effect his safety
I haven’t seen any new model info. But from what I am reading here it looks what I said earlier is playing out. Another Ohio/Indiana storm. As usual.
CMC is still definitely in our camp. Good sign. 🙂
Well that’s good…we will see what the euro says
UKMET and GEFS Ensembles pull way north. Truly outliers at this point. Still impatiently waiting on the ECMWF to initialize… *Jeopardy! theme song*
Lake cutter!!!
Euro out yet?
Euro decided to follow NAM and GFS. Either a fluke with the 0z models or a trend starting. Guess I’ll be checking out the 6z runs as soon as I wake up.
Of course