Good Wednesday afternoon gang. It’s time for my daily late afternoon update which usually takes on a lighter tone while still getting the point across. 
Well, that is IF I have a point. I want to pick on the GFS once again as It is one of my favorite things to do… yes I lead a boring life.
Before we get into that… A quick note about tonight. Fog is likely to be very dense in a lot of areas so keep that in mind if you are traveling into early Thursday.
The next few days will be VERY nice as temps make a run toward 70. The problem with the GFS comes with our front moving in for Halloween. The GFS has been going nuts in wrapping up, what appears to be, a bogus low pressure right on top of us Saturday into Saturday night. You can see what I am talking about here…
The model appears to be bundling too much energy leading to this stronger low. It is now on it’s own in showing this as the other models have only a weak wave passing through. In turn… the front moves through much quicker and with lighter rainfall amounts. Check it…
Canadian Model
The NAM is now aboard the “wave” train…
Saturday Afternoon
That will get the rains out of here quicker and bring the cold in faster. Temps for Halloween will fall into the 40s as the day goes on with a chilly pattern being with us into all of next week.
That is another place where the GFS has decided to go out on it’s on. The European model continues to suggest a trough in the east through the next 10 days (minus the next 2). Here is what the pattern on that model looks like NEXT Saturday…
It doesn’t end there as the GFS ensembles and the European Ensembles are at odds for the following week as well with the GFS showing wall to wall warmth for the US and the European Model saying brrrrr!
Say it with me… if you forecast by the GFS only… you forecast will die by the GFS! It’s that simple! 
Have a good evening and I will update later tonight. Take care.
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National Weather service this weekend is side by side with GFS…..
Looks like Shane’s method of using a magic 8ball or dart board might be a better tool to use in the weather forecast the next few weeks..lol. Come on Shane what does the 8ball say?..lol
I’ve not posted on the “ole blog” in awhile but I do read everyday.
Thanks Chris For All The Hard Work You Do….
I have a question for anyone that will answer. I would like to know what the weather is goin’ to be doin’ Nov. 13th? Yep, Friday the 13th. I’m havin’ my daughters Sweet Sixteen that evenin’ & would like to know what Mother Nature has in store for us.
Her b’day is the 12th but since that is a school night, we decided to have party Friday…
Thanks for any info that anyone can give me.
Chris, I’m rooting for you on this one!! Get that rain out of here in time for a proper tailgate at Commonwealth on Saturday!!
Thanks Chris for the heads up on the fog for late tonight. I watched 2 different Lexington weather forecasts tonight…ok i am a weather junkie. I may be mistaken but I did not hear about that. Thanks for all the hard work on the blog. We really miss you in Lexington.
i think this is at 360 hours on the gfs lol, but for your own sake do not trust it at all!
We sure do!!!
I thought it might of been on that 360 gfs but wasn’t for sure….LOL 🙂
I’ll ask again next week sometime….
Thanks anyway….
It’s also true that if you forecast only by whichever model has the coldest temps…your forecast will die by those coldest temps. You have to A) be consistent and B) use your gut feeling sometimes as a forecaster. We see the Euro, Canadian, and ECMWF fall flat on their faces a TON all Winter long too.
I will put my forecasts up against anybody out there!!! If you have a problem with how I forecast… perhaps you should find a blog more suitable to your needs. I love having you here.. but you seem hell bent on stirring the pot lately.
CB
Thank you for saying what I have been thinking for several weeks now.
Lately..???
Have I missed something… lol
Go Steelers..!!!
…
euro is ecmwf.
Just for kicks and giggles I asked an online Magic 8 Ball “Will next week be colder than average?”
It’s response, “No Way!” I think it’s friends with the GFS.
My personal thoughts, if the models are having this much trouble right now and showing two very different solutions, go with the one that makes the most sense. Right now I think the Euro looks the best for this weekned as far as upper air goes *Can’t see surface Precip for free*. So I’m leaning towards the Euro for now.
I’m rootin for ya chris!!! Need cool temps next week. Going bow huntin, and dont want to wear bermuda shorts!!! BTW the blue white game….OMG!! bring on Carolina!!! Dont call off the dogs Cal!! Embarass their a–!!!! GO CATS!!!
So you can call out others, but they can’t call you out? 😉 Look Chris, I never said I had a problem with how you forecast anyway. I was just making a statement. You know I think a lot of you. Let’s just keep it real.