Good evening, gang. The computer models continue to trend toward a much bigger snow event for the entire state from Sunday night through Monday. The latest run from the NAM went absolutely crazy with snow amounts across Kentucky…
Now, that is ONLY one run of ONE computer model that we are looking at there. However, we are roughly 24 hours away from that system impacting parts of the state, so it’s not like we’re tracking something from days away.
I’m more looking at the trend for the models today. The trend is undeniable… much more snow and farther north across our region.
Let’s see what the rest of the overnight model runs show before we go hog wild with this thing. I will also have my First Call For Snowfall on here later tonight.
Take care.
Thanks CB, you are too kind to us weather freaks with you dedecation
The north trend continues!
That run shows a pretty good size ice storm across Tennessee. Don’t want this to go too much more north!
I thought the snow would be mainly Tennessee and the ice over mainly Georgia and those points further south. Seems such a huge shift north with the cold air already in place is odd, so will be interesting if the models hold up and trend accordingly.
Did you really ever doubt it. A decade of NW trends.
The NAM says BAM! At this point, if the NAM and the rest of the models keep trending north, it will actually miss TN and So. KY. Let’s hope it can stay at that exact point and give snow to all of northern TN, SKY, and CKY.
By tomorrow central Indiana will be the sweet spot.
Agreed! As a SKY resident, I’ve been cautiously optimistic with this storm. Hope it plays out!!!
Yea Nam still has a good hit for Tenn..Looks like some of that may be sleet though close to the border of Ky..We sure don’t want the North trend to continue..The 21z SREF is unreal for folks out west
Holy cow I hope the nam plays out
DON’T JINX THIS. That’s a lot of snow. I don’t k ow if I’ve ever seen that much snow fall at once in my lifetime.
I would still like to see a 50 to 70 miles shift north just to guarantee
everybody in the state gets involved.
I think the NAM is drunk.
You may as well add the EURO and Canadian to that, then. I guess they are all drunk? And GFS is next. lol
Its a complete model bender!!! Lets see tomorrow how the models are feeling, sober.
Enough of the northern movement, because I will riot if SE KY misses out…
That’s the funniest thing I’ve read all day…LOL
I know, right!?!?!?!?
Listen those of us like myself and my mom who have health issues don’t want that type of snow.I have blood pressure issues and panic attacks and mom has the same thing.we don’t need it.
Does anybody know why exactly the moisture in Tennessee is sleet/ice and not snow? By looking at the run it looked like the 32 degree line was around the southern border of Tennessee at the 10m and 850.
When does European run?
I think around 1:00 AM, give or take a little.
Is this a quick hit with heavy snow, or a prolonged 24-36hr event?
Jeez, don’t be so negative, prelude!
NAM is usually good when this close to event. Lets see if the GFS goes the same route. Run will be coming in soon.
lovin all the peach on the map 12″-14″ …after the 5-6″ today …yeah I ll take that …not much melting in between with a forecasted high of 10 tomorrow…upslope is a happy camper right now
Lets not forget the Nam gets too juiced up most of the time..Still nice eye candy..
Now that is a beautiful map.
Yea but it’s still a *TREND* XD. Since it’s going to be crazy cold the next 2 weeks, this will probably make it even colder if it happens.
Cautiously optimistic…but i say after i take my kids home early afternoon to cincy—let it hammer. The child in me wants a snow day Monday!!
It’s Presidents’ Day so hopefully your out anyway.
Hi-res 0z NAM snow..Pretty
http://i.imgur.com/I0O3cJp.png
When is this supposed start?
I’m starting to kind a feel sorry for Blizzard Tim. I’ve not seen anybody that excited about snow. Maybe his part of Tennessee still gets it.
hes went rogue since the north trend on every run today …lol
Bring it on! Middlesboro is ready!!
READY FOR SPRING NOW CB???? I DETECT some giddy in ur gid up!!! OLD SCHOOL WARNING IN EFFECT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow been reading for a couple years, never thought I would see it!!
If these models shoot North this late in the game and leave us high and dry in Southern Kentucky I am DONE with forecasting and models LOL.
well for the ole WAR HORSES of the blog its exciting as we waited for years for a Giraffe hugger!!! I think of the early years of the blog, Berrnie, CHAS, COFFEE LADY, Marsha, Tim, Vinny and many more.. u know who u r.
this is OLD SCHOOL to a tea a big snow with COLD AIR!!! this shut down things, roads etc. remember growing up in 80sw look at bank temp it saying 14 below with 14 inches on the ground..
OLD SCHOOL hey Keavy man set up the chat room!!!! side note we need to prepare for no electric etc as well as pets, elderly etc!!!
Rolocoaster!!! Stop with the weather and give me some pony picks!! I’m in a drought my friend
Rolo how is it going? The winds sure have howled tonight. Everyone stay warm and make sure the pets do as well.I guess we will All just wait together to see what happens.
here we go..0Z GFS running
Wonder what it will
Show!
The Weather Channel is naming our store Octavia! Not sure about naming winter storms. Hurricanes yes but too many winter storms….ahhh….cept in KY! A few more model runs and we are there! Looks encouraging this time….knock on wood!
Octavia, isn’t that some sort of healthy fiber yogurt?
Just as long as not Lucy 😉
I can not bridge how with the cold air in place the system will flow so north to make Kentucky mainly snow and Tennessee (maybe) mainly ice and some snow. It seemed just for Tennessee to be mainly snow was a big shift north.
Not getting it….. Normally I do.
Same trend all winter for the models. The disturbance gets into the west coast where it can be properly sampled and then the models adjust northward and stronger once they actually see what they have to work with.
Sorry guys, this still puts me at 10″, but I don’t like this shift as my friends in TN deserve this more than you guys in northern KY. May be an unpopular opinion here but fact is fact.
Well
Northeast ky gets the shaft even when northern ky gets snow
Preach it. Any clue as to why it is sleet/ice in most of Tennessee instead of snow? Temps from 00z NAM look almost the same as the temps from 18z run.
Stronger storm, more warm going up and over the cold. The snow turns liquid, and has enough time to refreeze before hitting the ground. There is your sleet.
Thanks, makes sense. Seems like it will be a heckuva lot of sleet down that way because QPF’s were high.
Sleet good- ice bad 🙂
Only thing I can think of is warm air intruding above the surface. Even though surface temps will be well below freezing.
I agree. Tennessee needs snow love. Atlanta has cancelled school for Monday but that was before the northward shift really kicked on in.
I’m betting Jim Cantore canceled his flight to Knoxville and booked another to Lexington…lol Just kidding Tn people.
Closed low over central MS at Hour 42 (1012 mb). GFS 00Z.
Lol that’s foreign to me
Apparently the gfs is also farther north and more expansive
Not as much as the NAM, but the GFS can be a mule.
Well Chris said if anything, it’s slower and would produce higher snow totals
Got a link?
The GFS joins the party and drops the hammer on Kentucky.
About as perfect track one could ask for this late in the game on the GFS..
Link?
I couldn’t agree more
Charleston NWS and local tv here in Huntington/Ashland area still have no mention of anything.
They are always so slow…I’m in greenup
same here jimbo ….said some flurries…but they also an ich or 2 today …and we got 5-6 ” … I hate our local weather here
I agree with both you guys. I got an inch or so in Putnam Co. today, biggest so far this pitiful year. I was surprised this past Wednesday night Charleston NWS actually is issued a WWA for my County for Thursday and we got no accumulation. The one time they made an early call they missed it.
How many more model runs until showtime? I don’t want this Storm pulled any further north. Already appears that only portions of northern TN will get hit.
Chris just said the trend is troubling for our friends in tn…could be a significant Ice storm in some places
Yes and “should” have been Georgia with Tennessee the north side and snow. I can not deny the model trends but not getting such an apparent epic shift…
Could be the first ever Bubba Buster. Key being “could”, since a few models over a few hours, not a trend maketh!. They do have more weight though, being closer to the event….. Meh.
CB helped explain it, but I was expecting the much colder air that is normally not in place for our area to keep the moisture flow more due south.
As my little granddaughter would say, Holy Mercy !!!!
This excites me
If that played out, I woukd be so excited! Thanks for all you do Chris! You are the best!
Guss The NWS Must Be Drunk Because They Said That There Leaving The WSW The Same According To NWS Louisville And NWS Jackson.
WBIR Knoxville….first call for snowfall
Middlesboro-Corbin – 12-13″
London – 15-16″
WOW!!
Can’t wait to see what the potential impact will be for southeast KY. Particularly Harlan county!
Wow, yesterday the NAM and GFS lost the storm while the Canadian and European held steady. These models are just crazy! I wonder if this thing now won’t trend even more north bringing mixing issues into southern KY? Right now northern KY looks golden. What can go wrong? Oh, wait…
I wonder what the NWS will do? CB is right, the NWS is down right useless… sometimes.
I hope we can avoid power issues especially with brutal cold coming mid week.
Sorry… Needs to go more north! Lexington got 5″ last month when NKY barely had a dusting. 🙂
The southern part of the state got nothing. Their nothing beats your dusting lol
You tell em Big Papa, because I’m too mad
Can I here an amen brother!
hey Crystal, going good.
Vinny u need join my facebook page, Redneck bunker handicapping everyone join my page!!!! Vinny Gulfstream tomm r9 6 horse bred to run big on turf, 4-1 ml get aboard!!!!
What’s your FB page dawg? Rolo or Lewis?
Anybody notice the clipper coming in right after this storm..Also look what may be brewing Friday…
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_135_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
I actually have a 1 inch snowpack here in my extremely localized part of Lexington! I drove 2 miles west and there is absolutely no snow on the ground while the micro-blizzard that pas-sed through my area dumped 1 inch!
OLD SCHOOL slower storm thumping. could see 15 plus in spots..
I would love to see a good snow here in Jessamine County. I’ve never experienced more than 4-5 inches in 1 storm!
Charleston MET mentioned significant snow Monday. Their future cast had moderate/ heavy snow all the way to Parkersburg on Monday. We shall see.
The weather channel kills me lol…they just wait for major models and follow suit
I watched the local competitions forecast a bit ago and know we are not supposed to talk bad etc…but watching them do their forecasts it was like ahhh….ya might want to check the latest model runs! Guess they did not have time redo their graphics or something or just being overly cautious. The viewers though should and least be informed of the possibility so they can prepare IMO….with qualifiers such as too early to make and models could change of course. Just my take!
Funny tweet from CB buying milk! A few more model runs….look for the tweet where he is buying bread and then you will know it is showtime! I love the cryptic tweets! Hilarious!!
Not real milk pfft fat free yuck
Yep, milk flavored water!
Hope this plays out well for the folks in Harlan County
That’s quite a huge leap northwards over the last couple model runs. With the precip still 24 hours out, there’s enough time for this thing to keep hopping northward into Indiana and Ohio, leaving KY with an old fashioned ice storm. Let’s hope this thing has marched as far north as it’s going to go!
Was thinking the same thing. Crazy north has no limits to crazy.
Octavia, the snow dome buster! Thanks, Chris, now I can go to sleep.
Well, it certainly is very close to the time of the storm, I mean it’s NOW SUNDAY! The storm happens Late sun night / Mon……..hopefully the models have made up their mind by now………but we’ve seen things this close BUST before, so one never knows.
ISRAEL – I know what you mean about those mini blizzards. If you’re in one it’s crazy! Like you’re at the north pole or something. We had some snow, but didn’t have anything crazy in northwest lexington
Sorry if this is a repost. Hope things fair well for folks in the mountains of Harlan county 🙂
Me too!!!! 3 feet would be great lol
OLD SCHOOL!!!! JOHN CONLEY!!! join me on facebook, @ redneck bunker handicapping!!!!
Apps says add another model to the Northward trend..The UKMET..Apps starting to become a little worried
Where do u live apps
Love it when the blog comes to life like this! Reminds me of the good ol’ days. Looking forward to a fun day of tracking tomorrow.
Thanks for all you do CB to keep us updated! You’re a beast 🙂
I guess euro is pretty dang snowy?
http://www.southeasternkentuckyweather.blogspot.com
Can anyone show a map of the euro? Thanks
Chris said basically double digit snowfall for whole state!
Apps says wow at the Euro
and i mean wow wow wow wow wow
Link please!?
Can anyone post a map of the euro? I think it looks good for the state!
Oh my goodness. Let it snow!
OMG… Mark Lex, when you see the Euro, OMG… CKY gonna get thumped!!!!
Vinny, you got the snow map? We’d love to gaze over the eye candy before bed! 🙂
CB will have it shortly. This is his blog and he post the maps. Sorry…
Someone please show the euro model please!!! Love you CB!!!
I will trust the NAM model here, as it’s been more relevant with close term forecast I have seen since the changes in 2006. You’re right, it’s probably going to happen in a very similar manner to this as the GEFS model wouldn’t help being just a day away. You’re the first I’ve seen point it out so thank you for the warning.
Map map map!!! Lol
someone post a screenshot or a gyazo of the ECMWF
Here is the link for the UKMET
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
The weather channel is now giving up to 15 inches of snow for somerset! Don’t forget Chris Bailey nailed this thing before any one else. You the man Mr. Bailey!
Can someone link the EURO, please?
would someone please post a map of the euro for those of us that have to get up early and can’t stay up for the blog update.
Apps be nice and post
http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/02/14/1598a9909dba31622dfd5d0b567d9fc9.jpg
Now that’s a hit for all of ky!
Thanks! And WOW! 🙂
That is beautiful
I laugh at your 10:1
Like I said a couple days ago. Apps runner….
Praise the lord, God is great!
How much is Cincinnati going to get?
Apps feel sorry for Tenn..We feel your pain
Patiently waiting for Chris to post his first call map.
The bad thing is I work for Kroger……going to be a busy day!
Double digit snowfall for the whole state. I hope so. I want everyone who likes snow to be happy.
Anyone else believe this storm may go down in history? This is gonna nail central ky
I’m so excited I can’t sleep. Thank goodness for that high pressure that’s keeping this low pressure suppressed to the south. Any other time a low pressure this strong would become a lake cutter. However, this low can’t knock that high pressure out the way! 🙂
EURO looks awesome! No sleep for me tonight!
Anyone care to say if this will be a “dry” snow or are we looking at snowball snow???
Dry. No snowballs
Vinny – OMG!!! LOL.
I wonder if that’s ever happened before? Where the entire state got a decent snow at one time? Does anyone know?
Apps believe Tenn is looking at bad ice storm.leading energy much stronger on Euro..Thus bigger storm.Please no more shift..Apps like’s his power