Good Sunday afternoon, folks. A major winter storm will slam Kentucky and the region late tonight through Monday night. This storm system will likely bring shutdown snows to much of our area. It will also be followed by a dangerously cold air mass.
To be blunt… this week has the chance to produce something similar to what we had across the state in January, 1994. It may not be to that extreme, but some comparisons can be drawn.
A Winter Storm Warning is out for basically the entire state through Tuesday Morning. Here’s a breakdown:
– Snow develops across the west after midnight and rolls eastward by morning. The snow will become heavy Monday into Monday evening.
– With a frozen ground and temperatures mainly in the teens during the entire snowstorm… you won’t lose a single flake to melting. Those same cold temps will actually help increase the snow amounts. Here’s a look at my New Call For Snowfall..
– I beefed up totals across central and eastern Kentucky to account for some heavier bands setting up. It is very possible for much of the state to pick up a foot of snow out of this. Some areas could top that in the central and east. There ‘s also an outside chance those numbers are a little low.
– Watch for some sleet trying to mix in with the snow along the Tennessee border and south.
– Winds are looking gusty at times and we could have blowing and drifting snow.
Now… that breakdown is JUST for the snowstorm through Tuesday morning. What comes after this deserves a breakdown of its own. Here we go…
– Another potent arctic front moves in Wednesday with widespread snow showers and squalls with additional accumulations.
– Wind gusts with this system may reach 30-35mph at times. With the potential for a lot of snow on the ground…. some big time blow and drifting snow is possible.
– Historic cold is an increasing possibility behind this front. Here’s the latest forecast from the GFS for Thursday morning…
Wow!
To say this is a dangerous week of winter weather would be an understatement. You should prepare now for a major winter storm and brutally cold temperatures.
I will have additional updates later today and will also be on WKYT-TV this evening and through the entire event.
Take care.
WOW is right! Thanks CB… It’s been a long time coming
Chris
Will dry air be involved early on and temper some of the snow totals??
I think this is too moisture rich for that! If dry air were a problem, I don’t think it will be a problem for very long….Then again, stranger things have happened, so I guess we will see.
Might cut down 10% of the total, depending on how dry the air is at the time fro where it is.
awesome ….just awesome
Appreciate the update CB. Charleston NWS still holding out on warnings. However they did issue a watch which is a big first step for them.
I could have sworn I just saw we were under warning…I’m
In greenup
The last I saw greenup n boyd were still in watch area! Have they upgraded us?
Maybe not sue, I think we are in for a pretty dang good snow tho 🙂
I am ready! Bring it on!
Sue my family are mostly from flatwoods…do you know any robinsons? Sheila…my mom Debbie is vp at first and peoples
As, I’ve said before, looks like we are all going to get a thumper snow, unfortunately bitter cold temps are along for the ride. Some of us ARE going to have power outages…make sure you have or have access to family or friends with backup heat.
Check in on the elderly and make sure your animals are in a place in which they can keep warm.
8-13 sounds great for central ky, Chris even mentions some of those totals maybe are low. I’m not sure I have ever seen a forecast where the whole state gas a chance at 8 inches.
I’ll take 6-12! And I’m so close to the 8-14! I’m in southern Greenup!
So no snow for Nashville? This really sucks. People down here really need a good snow.
Thanks CB! Somebody needs to fire some of TWC staff and cut their travel expenses to avoid seeing them being drama queens due to a little thunder snow.
If Tennessee folks are watching TWC they will expect to get mainly snow instead of mainly other things.
Looks like I’m gonna miss out down here.. So sad to miss out on the storm of the year…at least for the south
Hey Tim… if we lose electricity, you can brag later!!! lol I’m hoping we don’t, but they mentioned breaking branches!! Thats not a good sign…
lol Bubba.. you know it has to be major if you see me, something is gonna happen this time, you may have to shovel that long drive way yet!!!! if NOT, i’m sure your buddies in Berea may need to borrow yours!!! 😉
Hey Bernie!
Thanks, Chris! Appreciate how hard you work. Snow’s biggest fan I am not, but even I’m excited about this one. 🙂
And just when I thought the LAST post couldn’t get any more extreme – and now this?
Wow!!!
And to think, this would meet winter storm criteria even in Duluth Minnesota!
No MarkLex I lived on Park Point in Duluth, I woke up one morning and the storm came from across the lake and pounded us. We couldn’t see out the downstairs windows. and had to leave the house jumping out of the upstairs windows. It took us 3 days to shovel out. But on the plus side, we were able to walk on the lake /shoreline to go to town for more Adult beverages. That was a Great storm. I think it was in 1982. Only thing that could be better is to have a snowmobile for this event.
BAM!!!! Thanks Chris
Did someone say OLD SCHOOL!!
Old Skool fo sure.
Let it snow, Let it snow, LET IT SNOW 😉 And please let there be wind. Thanks Chris for all you do.
Does the euro come out at 1? Twc finally has updated what they are talking about but also keep saying the ice snow line keeps inching north with each run
I know the Feb 98 storm was an Atlantic storm throwing moisture back, so it’s different from this…..But does anyone remember that storm in Lexington, how we got the very heavy snows, but then it kept snowing lightly for like 3 days after that! The forecast sort of reminds me of that, but with much colder temps this time. I couldn’t get out of my driveway because the snow plows created a snow bank taller than myself at the end of my driveway…..I walked across to the neighbors house to borrow a shovel, and the snow was up to my waist as it was wind blown all over the place! I had only lived here 2 years at that point and I was like OMG…. We had winds throughout that storm. Though I’m not sure it was officially called a blizzard, I felt as if it was the same as the’ 93 storm I lived through in Western NC, only I think the one in 98 was a little deeper. I think we had 18 inches in Brevard from Superstorm 93, and we had 20 in Lexington from the 98 storm. I’m sorry to rattle on – I’m just nervous and excited……:D
This is going to miss us. Ankle biter for most of the state at best.
Is this reverse psychology?
Bite your tongue haha
Now can we avoid in SE KY
1. Dry slots?
2. Storm going anymore North?
3. Radar drying up and disappearing as it chugs West?
I HOPE SO!!! LET’S DO THIS!!!
Kinda funny how some of you are so fixated on the totals. What can one do with 14″ of snow that you couldn’t do with 8″?
answer….
1 – with 14″ your power is MUCH more likely to go out
2 – with 14″ it’ll take double the time to dig yourself out of your house
3 – with 14″ quadruple the time or even impossible to get to a hospital in case of an emergency
just remember, while it will be beautiful, exciting, and fun to get the kids and dogs out in to play, it’s not ALL fun and games
If people want preaching, they can go to church. 😉
Hamlin, get out of your gla*s house. 50% of your posts consist of preaching against any post you don’t like regardless of what it concerns. So, in short….. keep that trap shut!
Actually that is a false statement, so follow your own advice. 😉
btw, after this nice snow…….Bring Spring! 😉
Ok, you two. Go to your rooms! If you can be nice to each other tomorrow, I’ll let you play in the snow.
Sounds good to me! I’m ready to try out my new pipe. 😉
That explains a lot of your posts!
Haha good one! 😛
Go away, troll.
How many times do you feel it necessary to say stuff to me that has no basis in truth?
I did and whether they want it or not all need it just my opinion though 😉
It will be a dry snow, so power outages should be minimal. It is the heavy wet snows that stick trees and power lines and cause problems.
Isn’t going to be a dry snow in the southern counties.
Ummm – shouldn’t you be in church?
So says Rodger in Dodger!
no thanks Dodger in Rodger!
So says Troy in SEKY!
OLD SCHOOL WARNING!!!! INTERSTATE SHUTDOWN!!!
This here is old school snow…..just hope everyone stays safe…
Chris, I hope u find some time to rest!!! However thank you once again for being the meteorologist that cares enough to keep us updated so we can prepare!!! Everyone be safe and keep your animals safe from the frigid temps and snow!!! I do know how hard that can be bc my dog thinks she is a Great Pyrenees but she is a mix of Australian Shepard and chocolate lab with three coats. I don’t let her stay out more than an hour at a time. ENJOY!!! I have enough coffee so I will be fine!!
if somebody is that stupid to leave a pet outside with these type of temperatures coming At us this week.
then they are a complete moron.
they need to spend some time in jail for animal cruelty.
luckily the majority of the people will use basic common sense.
luv it BAILEY anf JIMMY go all nite long!!! casn enjoy this as it be a daytime snow as well
New sref short range model. 16-20 Corbin to richmond then points east and west
What about Greenup?
is Mr Blevins out there somewhere.
AKA snow removal expert.
is there any pretreatment I can use for my driveway. three quarters of it is asphalt and the other quarter is concrete.
I have been told that blue ice can damage hard tops.
My ex used to do concrete constr. and he said people really goof up royally when they put that bagged salt crap on their walks and driveways…it eats up the concrete.
I’ll believe it when I see it!
Will the streak end? 17 years since a double digit snow in frankfort.
Its all trying to some together, we shall see??
Thanks for the update Chris. I feel a bunch of them coming as this thing gets closer. Looking forward to seeing a big snow but still cautious. (Many years of disappointments). We in this area are so fortunate to have a weather team and a special meteorologist who loves to share his love for weather with us ameteur weather lovers.
This is gonna make my day tomorrow very interesting. Supposed to have a final job interview downtown tomorrow, and then have a funeral visitation to attend early in the evening. Gonna prepare as if nothing is coming, but can’t even imagine how tomorrow is actually going to turn out.
Well, no school this week means lots of day drinking! Always look on the bright side lol.
Waht is the possibility of us nearing all time low temperatures?
I know people in Alaska who are jealous now.
Wsaz viewer, we miss you being on air here so much! What would you say is the snow accumulation for Ashland? 4-8″ or 6-12″. Thanks Chris!
6-12…a viewer asked him
On Twitter a few min ago…he was from htown…wsaz akways plays safe on totals
So no snow for Nashville? Thanks, CB. I’ll get the word out to people who thinks it’s going to snow here.
RAIN!
Umm thanks?
The Euro is a tad bit more south it seems. Good news for the southern counties and northern Tennessee.
Throw out the euro this late in the game.
Ok I will just because you said it lol.
I agree…go with with rapidly refreshing models…sref etc
Although Chris seems to think its a tad bit higher with totals lol
Coming from the guy who asks someone to post a map everytime a model runs.
Chill out big papa. Everyone says euro is garbage 24 hours out
Most of the models are garbage all the time. I like to look at all of them and get an average of what they’re saying. I’m sure others here like to do this as well.
Lol that is true…but my brother n law is here now and he his obsessed with models
CBs next update will be interesting if holds course. This close in the models should be kind of maybe stable.
It’s still showing near 12″ for almost the entire state except far western Kentucky and up around Cincinnati. Up to 18″ for roughly the area has highlighted in the 8-14″ red circle. It’s in line pretty much with most of the other models give or take an inch or two.
I think that 8-14 area is gonna get hammered
At this point, I’d bet money on Natl. Guard deployment.
Whatever happens, I hope not much ice falls for folks. There could be a band that gets smacked with the stuff at the point where the snow line kicks in.
So far Rolo isn’t saying “move along, folks, nuthin to see here” and we are getting pretty close to the main event, so…..maybe it will be an OLD SKOOL?
The evening models should tell the tale. After that is nowcasting 😉
Anyone have a snow Map from euro?
lol
Now now papa…lol
I’m rooting for your snow!
Still worried about the sleet coming in.
Are you right on border?
Yep
http://www.f5data.net/models/getimg.php?a=0&user=stephenswayne8&f=ecmwf_runsnowgrid_60_east.jpg
Just for fun, Lexington-metro latest snow predictions:
CB – 6-10
NWS – 6
Accuwether – 4-8
The Weather Channel – 8-12
Weather Underground – 8-12
Intellicast – 9-15
WOW! All look good
CB actually has LexMet in the 8″ to 12″ in the map above 🙂
Even better!!
Actually, 8-14″… How did I miss that?
Does anybody remember the late 77,78 and 79 winters. That was ole school winters that’s the last I’ve seen Ohio river frozen . it was brutle cold and snow.
Yes i do. Was 9 and have pic of me standing on river about 25 yards out from the bank. Out of school for three weeks.
Sorry Lucy, you aren’t invited to this party! 😉
Charley everybody is invited regardless!!! Lol!;;
I’m worried about that ice line, it’s pretty close!
So South Shore, KY and areas right along the Ohio river might only get a few inches?
It’s almost like the snow Gods go together and said, “ok, let’s bury Kentucky this time”
We’ll take it!
In 1998, we didn’t lose power and at that time I was living on Rapid Run Drive just off Tates Creek Road in south Lexington…..During the ice storm of ’03, I was living at Chinoe Creek Apartments, and Good Lord, that was the worst place I’ve ever lived with regards to power outages. It was always going out there. Now, I live in an area of Lexington that RARELY loses power….KNOCK ON WOOD!
Didn’t see it mentioned before, but NWS Louisville is holding a conference call at 2pm, and Wave is gonna live blog updates on it. Should be interesting to see what their updated forecast is. Belski has been active as well posting the new models, none of which forecast less than 9″ of snow for Louisville now, including the previously low-end Canadian and GFS, with upper end forecasts running around 13-14″.
Bubba?? The NAM has went MAD?
NAM
What’s it look like?
Old blog Bernie?
What’s the latest on the NAM?
The nam is not running yet
I have not looked at any models since noon so do not know.
This is the first time in recent years that I remember this much moisture meeting up with the cold air in our area. Let’s get this party started!
Feels like an ole skool thumpin!!!!
Guys, what’s your thoughts on totals for the Morehead/Ashland area?
This could be fun guys. Dangerous but fun
Just got back from the Walmart Market Place off Saron Drive/Man O War,and just a little milk,eggs,bread and AA batteries left. Came out of store and it was like Black Friday trying to navigate. So thankful and blessed to live in a country with so many stores and food at our fingertips. Thank you CB for all you do. So what your latest update Bubba?
Looks like a Bubba buster.
My earliest memories of snow storms and brutal cold begins with some real old school snows of 1963. The last really big one was in ’96, at least for here in NEKY. The ice storm of ’03 really hammered us and power outages were common everywhere in our area. With 6-10 (or more) inches of snow, brutal cold, and wind predicted, this storm does sound really old school. We are due one or maybe more, so I’m hoping it is just snow. No ice, please. Thanks Chris for keeping us in the loop.
CB, on your map you had to put the “I” in Ice almost on Nashville 🙁 . Hope that we get more snow/sleet instead, but prepared to be without power – and central heat – for a while.
Nashville currently expecting about 6 to 8 inches snow/sleet, but some ice possible as well. Memphis and especially Little Rock may get the worse of the ice storm.
http://youtu.be/i6zaVYWLTkU
Sorry! It’s to funny!!
First aid kit. Check.
Bottle water check
Dog food check
Gas in cars and truck, 4wheelrr. Check
Horse programs for eeek check
Heater in the dog house in case me and ole woman need a break. Check
Generator ready check
Redneck bunker secure check. I’m ready oh got ham and bred check
Is that u Bernie????
Well, get ready guys! Here’s the new update from NWS Louisville.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/pdf/Feb162015_230PM.pdf
Latest data suggest CKY, including Lexington-metro, will get HAMMERED!
Updates from NWS Conference Call.
2:00pm – The call will begin shortly.
2:01pm – The call is beginning… Meteorologist Ted Funk is leading the call
2:02pm – The call actually starts at 2:30 now. Please stand by. NWS is requesting some time to talk with meteorologists.
2:28pm – The conference call will start in a couple minutes. Apologies for the delay.
2:32pm – Conference call is starting, Joe Sullivan is leading it.
2:32pm – Schools? Don’t worry about a decision. Biggest snowstorm in 10 years at this point. 🙂
2:33pm – Snow starts 11pm-4am depending on area.
2:34pm – All snow. No freezing rain or rain. A bit of sleet possibly down toward KY/TN border.
2:34pm – Some incredibly high snow totals on models.
2:35pm – 10-15 inches south of the parkways. 8-12″ from OH River down to parkways, including Louisville.
2:35pm – 6-10 inches along OH River in Southern In, 4-8 inches possible north of that.
2:36pm – 2″/hr snow rates possible. Higher snowfall rates to the south, longer duration north. Battle between the two.
2:37pm – Won’t melt anytime soon. Cold air coming in. Single digits Tues AM. Wed AM and Thu AM may go below zero.
2:37pm – Record lows possible next several days with snowpack.
2:38pm – Question/Answer session starts now.
2:38pm – Wind with this system? Not expecting much wind with this. No blizzard. Max winds 10 mph.
2:39pm – JCPS: 8-12″ for Louisville, correct? Yes. What about rest of week with wind chills? Wind chills below zero on Wednesday. Max temps Wednesday in the teens, Thursday as well. Back into the 20s Friday. Double digits below zero air temp possible Thursday morning.
2:40pm – Lexington snow totals? 8-12″.
2:41pm – Dry snow? Wet snow? Dry snow due to low temperatures. Looking at a 12 or 15:1 snow ratio. Fluffier and deeper snow.
2:42pm – Flooding issues with melting? Not expecting a quick warm-up, should melt slowly. It’s also been so dry lately.
2:42pm – Another round of snow next weekend? May try again next weekend but we may be on the warm side of that one.
2:43pm – Tomorrow morning will be interesting? Yep, will start 4am south of Lexington.
2:44pm – WHAS Radio: Same snow forecast west and east of NWS Louisville counties? Pretty much, could see a bit higher amounts in Eastern KY.
2:45pm – South Central KY? Before sunrise but late in the night before it starts. Expecting 2″/hr snowfall rate down there at some point in the AM. Ends around 10pm with 10-15″.
2:46pm – Biggest February snow in 15 years possibly for the area. This is the snow version of the ice storm of 2009.
2:47pm – Trees and powerlines? They’ll be alright for the most part. Not a sticky, wet snow.
2:48pm – No-doubt type of situation? Will we see heavy snow for sure? Yes. It’ll be like some of the 1990’s snowstorms.
2:49pm – Clark County: 6-10″ range? Starting around midnight? Yes on amounts, but it starts possibly before midnight west of I-65. Maybe 1am at the latest for a start time.
I got one un-happy kitty cat. Shes a outside kitty mistly and shes not happy being inside. She be misable this week. Afraid she get stuck in snow or freeze death if i leave her outside
I met you at the lighting of the Christmas tree downtown and you said we would have one big round of snow this year and it looks like you’re going to be right again!! You are definitely the top weather man around!!!
A KENTUCKY PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:
Due to the dire Situation at this moment.
We are looking for a person that goes by the name of
Brian (AKA Blowtorch) he was last seen in his backyard
With his garden hose filling his swimming pool in anticipation
Of the 85 to 95 degree temperature he had projected this
Week in his mind.
Please do not try to apprehend the subject after informing him about the pending weather.
IN ROCKASTLE the RN said CHRIS BAiley says OLD SCHOOL, I said im am OLD SCHOOL HE SAYS U ROLO?? I said well yea that’s what they call me!!!! safe to say Rodney in MT VERNON is a BAILEY BOY MAN and a OLD SCHOOL lover!!!”
another note I get hom turn on tube there BAILEY and Jim, safe to say the TEARS started to flow!!! I LOVE THESE GUYS!!! GOOSEBUMP STORM WE GOT!!!! keep coffee flowing CB!!!
Rodger has some two predictions:
1) Storm will intensify more than even forecasted and slow: This will provide some 16″+ snow totals across west, central and nudge into northern Kentucky.
2) Stronger system will drag more warm air north which will cause big mixing issues in southern and some central Kentucky. TN will get a rain/freezing rain event.
There’s very very rarely been a system to completely cover Kentucky with a big blanket snow. Some will get a thumping snow this time but others in the south will be disappointed.
So says Rodger in Dodger!