Good afternoon again, gang. It’s full steam ahead toward a blockbuster snowstorm for Kentucky. I’m getting ready to head into work at WKYT-TV, but wanted to show you this incredible looking snowfall map from the European Model…
Kentucky will be closed for business pretty much all week long!
I want to keep stressing the history making cold coming in behind this for the middle and end of the week. Record lows from -5 to -15 degrees will be possible with wind chills pushing -20 to -30.
See you on WKYT-TV later today and back here for updates when I can.
Take care.
That snow map gives me anxiety.. lol
You may have to go ahead and start the wine. Lol
already have the wine chilled and the fireplace ready to go. Patio is cleaned off and salted so my dog can go out for brief periods. Pee pads down. Food cooked in advance in case power goes off. Auxilary charger charging so I can plug in a lamp or electric heat…did I miss anything.
Now Chris get on the air and keep us posted.
Thanks Chris! Take care snd thank YOU for all you do to keep us safe and informed.
wow….I hope we can get 15 inches !! We are ready at my home. Be safe everyone
We’ve gone to plaid!!!
Classic movie line!
LIQUID SCHWARTZ!
Ludicrous speed!
May the Schwartz be with everybody.
Stormscope, thanks for that, I about spit coffee halfway across the room.
Looks Good
Chris you’re amazing
BOOYAH!! #RIP SnowDome
Ohio starting to get in on the action still no warnings or anything in my neck of the woods
Good LAWD!!! I’m ready!
We’ve waited years for this!!!
Below is the comment that came from a question on the NWS Louisville conference call
2:48pm – No-doubt type of situation? Will we see heavy snow for sure? Yes. It’ll be like some of the 1990’s snowstorms.
It’s been a long time but it appears this may be EPIC or two words as ROLO says OLD SKOOL
Some talk that the central ky area may increase totals to 12-18 inches
I butchered that comment, I meant to say I would not be surprised to see talk about increasing totals in the cky area to 12-18 inches.
I’m in love and her name is “Octavia”. Hopefully, this will be a Bubba buster, dome breaker, old skool, all day country butt kicker.
I really just don’t know guys. I am trying so hard to get excited but I have been disappointed so much the past 17 years that I just can’t let myself get too excited.
NWS in conference call said temps could be -25 to -35
Holy Cow. That’s all time record categories
It’s honestly hard to even fathom temps like that. Like just imagine the difference between 90 degrees and 30, but start at 30 degrees instead, really can’t even imagine what that would feel like.
Is that air temp or wind chill?
Air temp. They said very little wind
air temp
Is there a link to the chat transcript? Thanks.
http://blogs.wave3.com/weather_blog/
In 94, we had 22″ on the ground and 24 below zero air temps in the metro. Gonna be hard to beat it.
I remember a ice storm in 94…There was .a 24 inch snow in March 93….
TYPO! Practically NO models shows temps that low. Windchills yes, but actual temps possible -15 to -25. That’s still enough to challenge all time record lows for some areas, but for most, no.
The fact this covers the entire state is awesome. Hope we get blasted!
He’s in Jackson just put totals 12-16 inches for the area. Things are getting real
Nws in Jackson
CB for president! He loves what he does & it shows. Works his butt off for us & we appreciate it!
So agree we are so lucky to have him updates around the clock never let’s us down
HISTORTIC STROM FOLKS!
Take plenty of pictures and videos, you will talk about this one for years….
Or STORM… TOO EXCITED TO TYPE
NWS has bumped up totals to 12-16 for Knox. The dome is busted if we get anything close to that.
Winter storm warnings as far north as central Ohio…wow…this is gonna be epic
Verga storm only hundred seventy miles directly west of Louisville.
Things are about to get real. We have snow on the ground now from last night here in Harlan county. Would love to see the euro materialize. This is one people maybe really should prepare for.
The last time I remember predictions this dire for Lexington was back in the 00/01 winter. The whole city was shut down, businesses closed, warnings to not be on streets. Not a single flake fell. Hopefully won’t happen again. I can’t remember what month it was.
I remember that. The mets blamed or on verga.
I worry about that. After 17 years on the blog my nowcasting skills are my go-to forecasting model.
I almost think the NWS is amazed at what this storm could do. They said they do not like to hype things but they would be surprised if you do not get enough snow out of this one.
I do think we could see totals higher then currently forecast. It seems they are going on low side of models for Louisville area. I almost think you could add 2 – 4 inches to what’s being forecast.
Does anyone think this has potential to be biggest 24 hour snow ever for parts of Kentucky?
NWS out of charleston have northeast ky in the 10-14 inch range
Pretty cool on nws.noaa.gov the entire state of Kentucky under a winter storm warning.
London stores are crazy and shelves are empty!
Yes – Take pictures and videos, post to youtube, be sure to put the city and state in the title of the video. It’s amazing that 1998 was relatively modern and advanced with camera’s, video, etc, yet it’s impossible to find any pictures or video of the feb 98 storm in Lexington!
-25 to -35 ACTUAL temps???????? W O W!!!! That is so DANGEROUS, even for extreme northern areas, much less here!
Those would be windchills…. Still real cold regardless.
Actually, those are real air temps according to the NWS, wind will be pretty much a non-factor. Found that hard to believe as well, never seen it near that temp around here.
Actually Lexington hasn’t gotten to -21 I think and the state low is Cynthiana I think -36…It’s either Cythiana or Shelbyville. I can’t remember.
pretty sure Shelbyville holds state record.
Kind of strange here in my area of SE Ky. Grocery was busy but not swamped….I dont think people here can quite believe that it might actually happen 😀
My husband talked to a lady in Harlan a couple of hours ago and she hadn’t even heard anything about the snow. LOL
18z NAM is holding strong. Consistency is our friend! If you’re still holding out you might want to get prepared now.
WOW! The NWS in Louisville has not updated their forecast discussion for Lexington since 3:22AM. Here we are on the brink of the biggest snowfall and weather event in years and nothing? Are they asleep over there? Heard there was supposed to be a presser at 2:00PM but still no update? What the heck…..unless I am missing something which is always possible!
Check the top of the page for the updated PDF breaking down the storm system. They’re usually fairly consistent, regardless of what’s going on, with posting updated Forecast dicussions in the 3-4:30am/pm timeframe, and only making meso adjustments to their forecast with intermittent updates.
I lived at the fire station for a week in January of 94′. We had EMS ride in fire trucks. It was -37 below zero ambient temps and 15-20″ of snow. It was great. Hope to see it again.
I remember I worked in the emergency room and I still had to go to work they sent the fire and or police after the nurses lol. Then we stayed there and when we could catch a few winks in a empty room.
We Are now in a winter storm warning here in Athens Ohio 1st of the year,heck it now looks like Columbus might even get snow its go farther north
Winter storm warning for 6-10 inches here in southern Ohio about 10 miles south of Jackson
its another Tim From Ohio lol,4-8 inches here
NWS in Jackson has included snow & sleet in tomorrow’s forecast for Monticello. That would cut into snow totals not to mention the extra havoc it could play…any chance this stays just snow?!
Thanks Chris for keeping us uodated on an extremely busy day for you. I honestly don’t know how you do it!
Heck the weather channel has the majority of the state under 12-18 inches now
This storm is moving far enough north that I now will get snow in Philadelphia.
WPC has almost entire state at slight risk of > 12″. Just south of Louisville it has them at moderate risk of >12″.
Latest NAM
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL … Still don’t think this adding in the snow=ratio of wind chills around 0-10?
Weather Bell default is 10:1
I’ve always been told if it seems to good to be true, then it probably isn’t. Lord, please don’t let that be the case!!! 🙂
Gonna be fun week of work in the oilfields. Done got the chains out and ready for tomorrow
A KENTUCKY PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:
Due to the dire Situation at this moment.
We are looking for a person that goes by the name of
Brian (AKA Blowtorch) he was last seen in his backyard
With his garden hose filling his swimming pool in anticipation
Of the 85 to 95 degree temperature he had projected this
Week in his mind.
Please do not try to apprehend the subject after informing him about the pending weather.
I think his name is Bryant
LOL
Does anyone think there is a chance that this storm can strengthen more and even slow down once it actually starts?
I’m a little confused about the European snowfall prediction. This map shows 14 inches for SDF. The numbers on Weatherbell for their European are about 8 or 9 inches.
Weather bel maps are 10:1 ratio
Thanks.
Would care to explain that to a lay person who doesn’t understand what that means!! Thank u!!
Has anyone heard, from any source, the timing of when this is starting tomorrow? Seems to be information that all outlets seem to be avoiding like the plague. Might be some useful information…
around 3am
Wymt says 5ish
Thank you!
Polar Express due to arrive on schedule at all KY stations! I think I hear that train whistle.
Heard The Weather Channel is here in Ky..anybody know where?
Louisville
In my front yard lol with rolo and goat.
I am sorry my back yard.
Good one:)
What WARMING CLIMATE HOG WASH!!!!
is that sarcasm?
LOL yes by all means….one storm lasting a week compared to years of warming must prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are on the right side of science and history.
This warming is what leads to climate disruption and extremes of all sorts. Western is right.
I’m very proud of you for this.
Years of warming?? The data has already been proven to be bogus and was reported as such by all but the US. London Telegraph had a report on this.
Lets see how long that BS is pushed if these people have their grants cut off or they divest their green tech stocks 😉 ManBearPig would approve your message 😉
“The data has already been proven to be bogus”
Sounds like a good read. Have a link? I ask because I have seen a lot of actual daily temperatures reported from all over the globe. Years upon years of FACTUAL data and it seems to point to this warming. Even people within the science community that I know that are not big on the warming are now admitting it is warming fairly fast but they still do not say it is “man made”. Seems to be the real sticking point now.
Look up London Telegraph. Was published in the last few weeks. The data used appears to be biased for less than innocent reasons:
Not published in the US since does not fit the narrative for wealth redistribution 😉
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html
Amen Brother
Agreeing with Western and Hamlin on this one. May not be man made but it is real no matter what Joe Bastardi would have you to believe.
Getting cloudy outside, the 96 storm started early.
Thomas here from Murray,KY. Quick question, locally here they are saying southern Kentucky counties will see a lot of sleet and thus cut our snow totals way down. Otherwise we could see over a foot. Are they also saying in central Kentucky the same of those southern counties?
http://youtu.be/i6zaVYWLTkU
Now I’m real nervous… see, I’m a truck driver and I’ve gotta go down to Nashville from Louisville and then back.
Does anyone know if there has ever been a solid deep snow like this that hit the entire state at one time? We have talked about tracks of low’s in the past and which track is best for which parts of the state……and never did anyone EVER say that there was a track where the entire state got a decent snow at one time…..I’m just curious if that’s ever happened. I know in 1998, it was NOT the entire state
We had around 24 inches in Southeast Ky on March 13 & 14 in 1993……..Very wet and heavy snow….
Back in the late 70’s was worse in what were getting.
My weather app is saying some sleet may mix in tomorrow. Question for the weather-wise: How can that be when the high for tomorrow is 21 degrees? I don’t live in a border county; has the storm shifted north?
Most weather apps are garbage.
Warm air intruding at mid levels. The same conveyor that brings moisture also brings warmth. It’s a fine line if you’re in the mix zone. My understanding is that only southern KY needs to worry about this.
You guys are so lucky. I live in the Indianapolis area and we haven’t gotten anything good all winter long. That huge storm a few weeks ago missed us to the north and now this one to the south. This sucks
Storm showing signs of slowing down. I could see upwards of 2 feet for sum
Don’t embellish, Rolo lol
If folks wake up in the AM and just a few inches- wow. Keep in mind New York was in the line of site for the big one just a few weeks ago and the main system missed a large chunk of the expected path. That miss was within four hours of the event.
Not saying that will happen here, but might be best for such estimates once it starts panning out 🙂
It looks like this is going to be a prolonged event too. I’m just watching the weather channel and they are showing the movement of the low and the hours at which it progresses from west to east and they commented on the timing of how long it takes that low to progress………They think little rock could get a major ice storm, and they feel pretty confident that KY is all heavy snow….It feel so good not to be on a LINE this time……But right in the middle of it for a change!
you are ever the realist although some would call it pessimism 😉
Prefer realistically pessimistic 😉
This event is event is similar to the 2009 ice storm, accept we are in the middle snow section rather than the bottom/south ice end. The colder air should keep the crazy heavy ice out of it for those that get it.
except
If we wake up in the AM to a few inches of snow we’ll be right on track. This thing is supposed to least all day tomorrow w/heaviest snows falling during the day 😉
It would be too late. The meltdown would have already devastated half the blog population 😉
Lol, I get you on that one!
*last – dang autocorrect!
Hoping freaking Santa Claus shows up packing 16+ inches! Wait somehow that does not sound right!
all i can say is dang santa
I’ve been reading some local emergency management conversations about being prepared to be snowbound for 3-5 days if you are out in the county, up to 3 in town. This is for Laurel….is anyone else reading these local blurbs for your area??? Sounds pretty crazy.
New gfs is steady,
The chat room is still up for those wanting to chat
http://weatherforkentucky.chatango.com/?flash
GFS is slightly less robust….immaterial, in my opinion.
Yeah nothing to drastic, plus the 18 z runs where not full runs at least they used not to be, I’m not sure if that is still the case or not given the new gfs
Nashville’s all time record low is -17 F, set back during the January 1985 cold wave. Perhaps won’t get that cold this time, but may be close enough.
I’ve never experienced anything below about -3 before.
Analogs showing up include January 1994 storm and another powerhouse system in 1996. These are in the top 6.
Snow must make us do some crazy things…lol
http://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=536448256497362
OMG the Canadian shifted 300 miles South..%$%%$####
Not..lol
CB should pull a “Coach Cal” and post something bogus like that 😉 Some people’s heads would pop.
Those are grounds for a ban, pal. Lol
Now we wait and see what happens. Got plenty of great beverages and movies. Might get my Christmas stuff out. Why waste a good snow?
Starting to spit snow in west central Ky.
Serious question, at what point can you have too much snow for sledding?
When the sled goes under the snow instead of on top
Thanks Andy, even in a time when spirits should be high, I knoew you would be a jerk
If you got offended by that innocent statment you have issues.
Lol
Says the guy that complains and groans about everything.
Up until now Andy has had the right to complain and groan about everything as have all of us south of London, or even Berea for that matter.
Sure looks bad for parts of Tenn maybe getting a crippling ice storm..If you live in the Southeast part and bordere Tenn could get hairy..Hopefully i’m wrong..
http://i.imgur.com/UxF2zjt.png
They are where we were for the 2009 storm. Was hoping the cold air would push out some of the warm air aloft to reduce the impact.
This would be very bad since the dangerous cold air behind it is much worse than 2009.
I’m going (hoping) all in for all snow. No ice!
Wave3 reports that TWC is in Louisville and will be doing live shots.
Mr. Beam or Mr. Daniels? 😉 🙂
Both lol
Hahaha
One of the weather girls from TWC was doing a shot from downtown a few minutes ago, near the KFC Yum Center. Kind of strange to see.
There goes the snow..lol..
I hope I’m wrong about this but, I got a feeling folks in Wayne, Clinton, and southern McCreary Counties are gonna be on the low end of snow totals with a healthy portion ice. Maybe Mr. Bailey or someone else can quieten my fears.
I think they are valid when your talking ice
Guess it’s just a nowcast at this point..Hopefully all snow for everyone..
I’m in McCreary, very worried about ice !!
april 1984 we had about 30 inches in pike county ky. this storm hitting us is long overdue and im READY AND WAITING!!
Actually it April of 1987.
Insert “was”
Wave3 saying louisville 8-12″ and points south 12″+
Just watched CBs arch nemesis on 18. Even with an event like this he comes across as the usual voice of caution/reason. Sucks the fun out of anything IMO……..
Can’t be a hypocrite since just realized I do that here…. I feel sad now.
NWS jackson not talking any significant sleet accumulations. Showing around 11 inches on border counties with 13-15 for most counties directly above them. That was updated at 5:30.
Keep hearing dry snow so less of a chance of power outages. Can someone explain. We are centered in the 12″ + area in central Ky. We got hit with the ice storm in 2009 and was without power for 12 days.
Giving wet snow down south. Could be some issues. The closer to you are to the sleet line the more wet the snow.
Dry snow is not a “sticky” snow like wet snow is and it weighs less as well hence no breakage.
Thanks. We are located between bowling green and louisville so all snow. Just makes me really nervous.
It’s about half the weight and does not stick to stuff. This should not be nowhere like the heavy stuff from 98.
Thanks. You guys are making me feel better. At least doesn’t sound like wide spread power outages are likely. We “lucked” in if you want to call it that on the heavy snow a few weeks back here in central ky and picked up about 6″ of wet snow. There were a few reported power outages from that so when I saw 12″+ this time figured power outages were a given.
Some NWS Offices have more than your usual problems this winter.
For example, Ft. Hood, Texas…
http://i.imgur.com/ZFVZI1J.jpg
I don’t have a problem with Bill Meck. I’ve emailed him before asking him questions and he’s nice to me and answers them……..But he does seem ho hum sometimes when he’s doing a forecast, (like a no big deal mentality) but he seems to get more pumped up during spring summer severe weather than snow storms…Maybe he’s not a snow lover?…..maybe that’s why? Chris is fun to watch because he LOVES it all..Bill Meck is sometimes like that, but not always. (to me anyway)
Reasonable psychoanalysis.
Bubba – just so you know, tomorrow you won’t be “winning”
It’s not over until that fast snowman sings 😉
That said, awful hard to make a snowman with powdery snow and super cold temps.
fat….. Is that politically correct now? 🙂
Untrue. You have to soften up the snow a little with a ‘blowtorch’ first. 😉
Why does CBS Evening news show Kentucky to only have 6″ of snow? Is this storm over hyped?
You have to look at local forecasts for these events. Nationally they could really care less about this and put little effort in nailing a forecast. Local mets are the ones putting the time in.
Absolutely right! National media only seem to care about the highly populated northeast, so you best believe they will try their hardest to get the forecast right up there. Here? Nah. Kentucky is nothing to them. I’m actually surprised the Weather Channel is even acknowledging us, let alone showing accurate snow totals for us!
Never know ..Models are really having a hard time seems like..Never seen nothing like a shift that occurred a day ago..Usually when an event gets within 2 days it set..Not this time..
I dunno, northward shifts, even to that extent have been very common this winter. The Super Bowl storm shifted from Ky, to Indianapolis, and then all the way north to Chicago in a 48 hour span, and once the models locked on, they were correct. This was a late shift, but energy coming out of the SW seems to be sampled later.
Wonder when we get a final call for snowfall?
I see the snow totals on the “other” station have shifted slightly south. I’m thinking Lex doesn’t get in the “over a foot club”.
That is almost always the case. More times than not, that other channel is less accurate on totals and is less than actual results.
Well, it’s impossible to pinpoint like that but I think a foot is possible i-64 south
I don’t doubt CB and his knowledge for a second! I just happened to notice their map on twitter. The “other guy” is crazy!
I am still cautiously optimistic that we’re over a foot! Thank you CB for all your hard work and dedication!
And to think, yesterday Atlanta canceled school for Monday!
Which one of you forgot to tell them about the NW Shift?? You had one job!
Also, at this point, how has “NW Shift” not become “NW Shaft” on this blog?
Is this storm dropping snow anywhere else at the moment? If not, then its not going to do a darn thing here but be cold.
Storm is in 2 pieces if you look at the radar when they join viola
Per radar it is snowing here, but it’s actually the dreaded virga. The NWS discussion earlier mentioned this possibility and that the first piece of energy would help to saturate the atmosphere in prep for the energy coming from the south. Or at least that’s my novice interpretation. The real deal isn’t supposed to start until around midnight for my area just west of 65 and southwest of Louisville.
Like a virga, snowed for the very first tiiiime. Like a virrrrrrirrrrgaaa 🙂
Hahahahaha!
NWS just updated their PDF and Lexington is now in the 10 to 15 inch range! Dear God, someone stop this madness!
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/pdf/Feb162015_730PM02152015.pdf
Schools in Louisville now closed. Obviously system is verifying as new superintendent is very conservative.
when this bad boy merges up tonite its going EXPLODE!!!
Just looked at the current radar… This is being blown ridiculously out of proportion. We may get a few inches out of it, but the majority of the snow is going to fall in the north – again.
Ummm NO
Don’t mind the poster. Hunting season has him bummed 🙂
He has obviously drank too much wine this evening
You can’t look at the current radar, the radar will light up later………
Yes you can look at the current radar especially out west its lighting up like a Christmas Tree.
Elk, you completely speak of things of what you do not know.
Good try.
What’s on radar right now isn’t the actual storm, just some frontogenic forcing.
ELK=hE of Little Knowledge
NWS JKL (usually conservative) is forecasting 10-16″ for almost all of EKY.
Impatiently awaiting the evening post…
Like he doesn’t have a lot going on: patience is a virtue, possess it you can, seldom seen in a woman and never in a man.
NWS huge prediction for southeastern ky! 12-15 for most
Witnessed a storm here in Philly go from 24 inches 12 hours out…to three inches about two hours in to the event..not but three weeks ago. Lol. I don’t think that’s the case here.
Well y’all should be glad…u could be getting ready for a devestating ice storm like I am…yuck!..
hate to hear that Tim hope all goes well
Isn’t there supposed to be more “accumulating” snow possible for Wednesday?
Is this all business including factory’s?
Is this including factorys