Good evening, folks. I have no changes at all on the developing winter storm that is rocketing our way from the west and southwest. This will become a shut down snow for many areas from late tonight through Monday night.
Snow is increasing to our west , but the real juice will be surging in from the southwest into Monday. Snowfall rates of 2″ per hour will be a good possibility. I’m looking at our setup and I’m wondering if we can get a clap of thunder out of this. That’s certainly possible.
I have no changes to the earlier call for snowfall…
A final call map will come your way tonight at 11pm on WKYT-TV.
All that’s left to do is to sit back and watch this thing unfold tonight and Monday. Help us out by posting the weather conditions from where you live. I will have a full set of tracking tools later tonight, but here’s something to get you started…
Good e
Enjoy the evening and take care.
Thanks Chris. Get some rest. You’re gonna need it. Stay safe and warm everyone!
Get some rest Chris, you deserve it
Gonna get major ice storm here in east tn…hope y’all enjoy your historic snowstorm…
Where did you move to Tim
Athens…between Knoxville and Chattanooga
I’ll be looking north and crying tomorrow… Lol
Sorry to hear that Blizzardtim. I was really pulling for all of Tennessee to get a good snow. You guys deserve it more than any of us.
I know Athens, I believe I went through there on my way to Cleveland tn once before.
Looks like a bit of a conservative call based on this afternoon models. Were the models over amplified or has something changed or just playing it safe to stem off the backlash if the higher end of the totals.shown in the models do not happen?
Playing it safe. If the 00Z Model runs verify, totals will go up some.
Agreed and I think smart on CB’s part! Regardless he was so far out in front of several of the other hapless Mets in the market it is not even funny…including the NWS! Just my take though! Buckle up!!
Well I’ve been so excited and nervous that I’m exhausted! I can only imagine how Chris must feel!
Me too!!!! We all have been waiting a long time for this!!
Get some rest, Mr. Bailey! You are going to be worn out by the time this storm is over!! BlizzardTim, you can have most of my snow!
Does anyone know how much Bowling Green is expecting?
Bailey goingt be 18-20 in few spots.
From the NWS discussion…
“Cannot completely rule out amounts up to 18 inches if very good banding sets up.”
WOW!!! Also, the NWS forecast for Friday morning has a low of -11° in Lexington!!!! They said potentially lower! WAVE3 has -10 for Louisville! Lexington forecast here.
Oh and FYI, the GFS is spitting out -27° for Lexington!!! Oh my God… saying that’s crazy low would be an understatement. We could potentially approach all-time low records in spots of KY later this week! I am just baffled! I wouldn’t ever have thought any of this could’ve happen this winter!
Isn’t that wind chill?
No, I am looking at the GFS 12Z TEMPERATURES!
I know! And how often do you see this!!!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_12.gif
YES!!!!! Looking nice and consistent for lots of love for Laurel County and surrounding friends! Anyone have any thoughts on a storm next weekend. I noticed the forecast has us warming up to snow on Friday and Saturday. Are we going to be out of school for one week or two?
wave3 said 12+ more for central KY so what is it
Okay the empty bread shelves have me stumped. I understand needing to feel like you’ve got supplies laid on if you’re stuck for a few days, but what in the world does everyone do with all that bread? Living in a rural area for years taught me to prepare with things I can cook on a camp stove and to make ahead so we’ve got food prepped that’s easily reheated (I was without power for nearly two weeks in 2009). I just don’t get the loaves of bread. Is it French toast all day, every day, when it snows? Anyone?
No bread for me, but the crock pot is going with homemade soup.
PB&j sandwiches i suppose. Or balogna sandwiches. I really have no clue.
I understand the bread more than I do the milk!
I got a big juicy steak to throw out on the grill tomorrow 🙂
Survival instinct.
Definitely this!
Snowluvr, I was thinking the same thing! Being from Eastern Maryland I never understood the reasoning behind the milk, eggs and bread hoarding……….
BAHAHAHA!!! That is hilarious!!!
NWS/L-Ville just moved the heavier snow about 30 miles north, so 10-15″+ a good bet from the parkways eastward.
If this doesn’t come to fruition, me and Mama Nature are gonna be making the news in a bad way! lol.
Energy out ahead of the storm is doing a nice job of juicing up the atmosphere before the real stuff gets here.
Thanks Ryan
You got any data on some dew points across central and western KY?
http://www.kymesonet.org/
Just go to moisture and select dew points.
Or wunderground.com
Thanks CB!!
Dome will be busted. Will hurt the conversation on here a little bit I guess. Was running close to 18 years without a big one. Good riddance. My kids needed to see a big snow before they headed off to college.
I’m so glad if this verifies that we can end the last big storm being 1998! So sick of that LONG streak……..
By looks of current radar this precip is running more north than what the models are showing. Am I missing something? I know a lot of this first wave won’t produce flakes until dewpoints rise. Wondering if I should throw salt or not. If dry snow easier to move than heavy wet snow. Not going to be a snowman type snow.
The flow does look more north, but not sure if as expected or a difference from the model solutions.
A few post down there is A intellicast radar. Pull in up and take a look. There is a 1333 mile snow band heading straight towards Kentucky. All being steered by a Low that is pumping in gulf moisture. How sweet is that?
Thursday daytime high temp in Lexington 6 degrees! UUGGHHH…..crazyness!
I think the whole state of KY went to the store today, then came home and made soup of some kind. Right now a bunch of us are watching 40 yrs. of SNL and keeping an eye on this blog. Great job, Chris. Everyone is talking about you and the blog as the go to for the best info. Everybody be careful if ya have to go out. Chris, I would tell you to get some rest but I don’t think you can until this storm comes through. I think everybody is on high alert and I hope ready for this.
Im hoping that this is the “dusting” forecast only in reverse!
Although the latest NAM is coming out about now, I would advise against putting too much stock in it. I do use it for comparative purposes with the shorter, more higher-res models like RAP ^ SREF which I prefer during NOWCAST mode
Chris said it buries ky
Looking at latest HRRR & RAP it appears Ky is being setup to get buried.
You have maps for it?
I need to find a Tyrone Biggums meme for you saying you got any of them maps? haha just kidding with ya.
Lol Tyrone! I know I ask
A lot, but gotta keep family updated
I love me some maps too.
Thanks for keeping us updated, Chris. I’m a snow lover, so I’m looking forward to this event! Stay safe, everyone!
I’m looking forward to the new phrase, “Remember 2015!” I really hope this thing pans out because I’m stoked about this snow!
Thanks CB for the work you do.
You tell us the potential well in advance and for that we are thankful. It allows us to prepare for possibility while others wait until the event starts to create a forecast. Possibility Forecasting vs. Event Forecasting.
I am thankful for this Possibilty Forecasting. You and BG at Wave 3 are my sources for knowing what could happen.
Ditto!
http://twitter.com/kyfan502/status/567148975489548289
Any idea if they will close state government. Anyone know how to find out???
A MONSTER is born
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true
Wow, isn’t that gorgeous.
That is crazy! That storm is huge and only gonna get bigger
As posted above, the flow looks more north, but not sure is as expected, or a difference from the model solutions. 50/50?
Wowzers! Thanks for the link. Snow pipeline! You can see it forming.
Hoping for a good snow in Harlan. Hope it doesn’t shift anymore to the north!
My employer is gonna expect me to drive in this crap tomorrow to get to work. We will only shutdown if there is a state of emergency declared. I’m hoping one will be pre-emptively declared as I do not want to risk my life for my job.
Say that to anyone in the Armed Forces.
A lot of companies are like that. The company I used to work for gave five personal days, but a lot of people (especially younger ones) would use the days up and then not have them for situations like this. If the roads were shut down by authorities though we could cut slack. Catch Is that has not happened since the 90s, so people would miss work for small snow events and be in trouble. Legit or not they used their personal days.
Yeah, that’s the case with my fiance….he works in Shepherdsville (we’re in Bardstown) and although he has a 4WD, I’m trying to keep him home tomorrow, because ppl here can’t drive on DRY pavement, and the last little snow we had, the decent road he travels was like a parking lot w/ offed vehicles. His work wouldn’t shut down if an F-5 went through & demolished it…if workers can’t make it home, they put them up in hotels nearby & send the honcho’s w/ 4×4’s out to take them there/bring them back into work….
What a great thing to share this excitement with everyone here! We ALL get in on the action this time! Thanks for keeping us informed Mr. Bailey!
I’ll be praying for emergency workers, road crews, stressed and homeless…..Jesus keep.
Anyone have general start times for this event?? I’m in Clay co…any ideas when it’ll get here???
I know the world wasn’t as “connected” back when we had dome busters on a more frequent basis, but any of the old timers remember a storm that impacted this large of area of the state? I’m not a young man, but I don’t remember such a wide spread event ever happening. It may turn out that some areas get a whole lot more than others, but pretty much the whole state is forecast for significant accumulations. With this much time between big events, it would be nice if the majority of the state gets involved.
I do not recall such a potentially wide coverage as this. Not even the 78 event.
I guess its odd to find a storm that pretty much starts at your southern border and ends at the northern part. That’s quite a big area and significant accumulations stop at both spots. May never see another one like this.
January 6-7, 1996
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-F6D17D4A-BCE5-4734-969E-560DAE1058C1.pdf
And of course January 1994
The 1966 storm with a doosy as well as the 1977-78. But back in ’66 you could eat it!
This is all vapor until Toyota announces shift cancellations. That’s the “$#@% just got real” moment that I’m waiting to see before I believe it 100%
Given the problem they had last month with logistics for component supply due to mid-west snow, you’d think this situation would be a no brainer but they don’t pull the trigger until they feel certain it’s going to happen.
Someone earler brought up the 2000/2001 winter event where nothing ended up falling on the ground. I still remember that one.
That is the catch with Just In Time inventory and lean production. No fat to absorb for things like this.
Sounds like where my fiance works in Shepherdsville…if they come into work & can’t get home, the honcho’s there put them up in hotel rooms and take them to & from work in their 4X4’s….I told my man if he goes into work tomorrow, he’s putting himself into “total idiot mode”, 4×4 Silverado or no….lol! I’ll be home w/ kidlets, pets, etc and my car is inoperable right now, soooooo….hurry, oh, Great Oz-give this man a BRAIN!
http://twitter.com/kentuckyweather/status/567159081723768833
Radar is filling in quick with a lot of Virga going on, which is completely expected at this moment. BUT, what wasn’t expected was for virga to start this early, meaning actual snow will start to fall earlier than forecast. Well guys, this is it, calm before the storm really ramps up tomorrow morning.
Radar
Plus CB raised his forecast! 10 to 16″ for parts of central and eastern KY.
Shane Smith of WYMT says the frozen to liquid ratio may approach 15:1.
If that’s the case, there are some places that are absolutely gonna be buried
I was thinking this, too, Israel.
Iono if ima sleep tonight, I’m too pumped
I’ve wondered the same thing, but think I’m really gonna try to lay down by about 1 or so, if I pulled an all-nighter watching this (which is tempting, watching radar and all), I’d probably be out during the best part of the storm, or too exhausted to enjoy it.
I took a 2 hour nap…I’ll prolly do the same and wake up around 8-9
Loving that updated snowfall map. 4-8″ for Middlesboro…meaning life here will return to normal a full week before the rest of you… I will be completely content with 4-8
Anyone know @ky state government??? Or how to find out if they are gonna close it?
State government won’t close. The last time we had a big event and the state police said “stay off the roads” we were still expected to be there unless you took leave time.
That stinks 🙁 I know they closed it in 2006, but that’s only because Governor declared a state of emergency… If he declares it again does that mean we won’t have to take our own time?
I’m in Northwest TN. Radar show snow on us, but actually sleet and freezing rain
Ground already snow covered in southern Indiana
Someone post links to the 00z models as they come out.
Doesn’t look like a fast moving storm, what yall think
Latest NAM says BAM x3 and has went upstage yet again, and dropped the mic… for areas central and east KY. Keep in mind these are the standard 10:1 ratios! If 15:1, the NAM basically says a general 18″ to 22.5″ if taken literally! Likely not gonna happen,but life is full of suprises. (Hopefully suprises that increase snowfall)
Is the other NAM maps based on 10:1 ratios. If so, this map doesn’t show as much snow.
Look at scale on bottom…it shows more snow
Not the best indicator this close, but not the best NAM of the day for my area.
Just started snowing in Bardstown! Let the pups out, nothing, then 2 minutes later, they were beating the door down to come inside! 🙂
Winter storm warnings extend all the way down to the TN/Ga border. Although southern Tennessee looks to be a freezing rain/sleet to plain cold rain solution. Knoxville and suburbs looks ugly. 1-4″ of sleet and snow, with 0.50 of freezing rain.
I would say that I-75 from Jellico Mountain all the way to Lexington may end up closed by tomorrow evening.
I’d say you’re toght on the money with that
Right*
yep, Knoxville and east TN gets the shaft yet again
First flurries beginning to fly as of a few minutes ago here in Valley Station
NWS Jackson updated not long ago and the lowest totals in the area were 8 to 14 inches and that was areas right on the border. Most other areas were showing double digits for the low end with most being a foot plus. This thing is going to be a monster.
I’ll gladly take the lower end of that total and completely happy!
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gis/images/JKL_Snow.png
Eye candy
I would be more than happy with the 12 -15 showing in Knox Co.
Hoping these models are not a bust and the whole state busts the dome.
Hope the wet snow stays away from SE KY, Love the snow but don’t want power outages
Wow guys I am honestly feeling like a teenager again back in the good old days. Its actually a rather strange feeling. Makes me reminiscence of the good old days back when life was much simpler.
I hope this really gives us a good thumping and my little girl can finally see what I used to see when I was a kid.
We will see what happens but nws already starting to scale back snow totals in south west Kentucky to advertise more of an icing event than snow. Hope the rest of your forecasts stay true, but this expected here in southwest Kentucky. Snow is an elusive creature here.
I just read that. If that holds true state wide 1/4 of the state will end up with totals on the low end. I find it hard to believe that previous models would miss it that bad. CB is still saying 6-12 for the area, so lets hope he is right.
Well honestly I am moving in two months anyways further north due to economy and weather patterns. Just got sucked into the snow hype and maybe it will hold true. I find it frustrating you have to find multiple meteorologists to say same thing to put faith in it. We haven’t had anything other than a dusting this whole season and we get a nice forecast and here we go hours before the onset and its different.
Flurries in Fern Creek!
I remember saying just a few weeks ago that I believed we should expect the unexpected this winter. Looks like I may be right. And honestly I didn’t even believe myself hardly. LOL
dusting in Northern Bullitt County
I am a little worried. All the snow on the radar appears to be north.
Big system coming from the southwest.
That actually is not the main system where the big stuff comes from, but helps moisten the air for it.
It won’t look like that from mid-morning to late afternoon.
Relax a bit.
So….. the tn border counties ??? Are we losing our snow?
No
No, but depending on which county you live in amounts could be much less which according to your point of view could be a really good thing considering border counties will have more wet snow (the kind that breaks trees and power lines) as opposed to more powder type snow further north.
Also of note, if you live in southern Bell or Whitley Co, don’t be surprised to see a brief period of cold rain tomorrow afternoon
Nope. I do think sleet or freezing rain mixing in could eat into afternoon totals in those areas. Don’t be surprised if we get a nice plume of snow tomorrow night as the low pressure pulls east. Stil think those areas could hit close to double digits.
At this point its a now cast and local meteorologist forecast. But here in southwest Kentucky on border of Tennessee we are looking at more freezing rain and sleet than snow. Now our forecast went from 8 to 13 inches of snow to 4 to 8 inches of ice/sleet/snow. Went it actually hits it wouldn’t surprise me to see 2 to 4 inches total. That’s the trend here in southwest Kentucky we are the South east or central Kentucky but much worse considering our track record.
Is it just the lack of high speed winds that’s keeping this from being called a “blizzard”? Or are there more blizzard criteria that this storm isn’t meeting?
Correct, believe I saw that the weather service was going with winds at 10MPH during the event.
Must sustain 35 mph winds for longer than 3 hours. Winds on this are fairly light.
Brand new NAM
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
what a sharp cutoff to the south. Guessing that sleet and fr rain may erode into snow total there? Taking the map verbatim, 2-4 inches in the north TN counties, 4-6 along the TN border, Double digit snowfall from Pulaski, east to Laurel and on into the mountains. If that were to verify, places like Williamsburg would end up with 5-6″ of snow, but head 20-25 miles north into Laurel county and you’re looking at 12-16″ amounts.
I hope you’re right. I am in laurel co so bring it on.
I have already salted the walk and drive and bought a big snow shovel at Walmart while ago. Bought that stuff on faith.
Chris’ extreme weather prediction in his weather forcast forca double digit snowfall was spot on I believe. Just like last year , his extreme prediction was record cold we had. This is why chris bailey is one of the best weather guys .
Just checked the NWS site and updates are ridiculous and nothing! Asleep at the switches! Biggest statewide event and barely a peep? No wonder they are no longer relevant! Pathetic…..and sorry….
Watching the national radar right now, wondering if there is any reason to be concerned about possible dry slots?
Seems like the radar rapidly filled in, excluding an area in S Illinois and W Kentucky, and over the last hour or so this area has remained consistently free of precip. I know the systems aren’t fully phased yet, but should we be concerned in Louisville? At the system’s current speed, I don’t see how it starts snowing moderately by 4am unless this area fills in.
Thats the main thing I am concerned about at this point is the dry air killing this out. I have seen it happen before.
Small flakes starting to fly in Lexington, let the storm begin! (Goodnight)
When is the last time you saw this?? lol
http://scontent-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/s552x414/10676188_10152649151960069_6883759263723472300_n.jpg?oh=553d8f4d2bdd0d685f8a13d71212f095&oe=555581AE
Somebody please post latest EURO!!! thanks
It’s snowing here in Versailles!
What are the current estimates for snow in BG?
December 18, 2010 I was stuck on the four lane in Wise, Virginia for 9 hours due to twenty inches of snow. This snow today could be comparable. Why are people foolish enough to be on the highway? Get trapped like I did and you won’t let it happen again. 4 inches here in Pound, VA.
About 11inches west of I65 near horse Cave. No one has been out on our road all day. Beautiful but cold.