Good Friday afternoon, gang. A significant winter storm is on the way to the bluegrass state and will deliver snow and ice to many areas. Sleet, freezing rain, snow and rain will all fall across our region over the next 24 hours and that makes for one tough forecast.
I am VERY confident of our region getting smacked around by this storm, but less confident on the placement of precipitation types and totals. Here’s a rough outline of how this looks to me at the moment…
That map is basically just for what falls tonight through early Saturday afternoon. The totals and boundaries are very flexible on my end and will be moved around with future updates. This may wind up being a total “nowcast” storm as we see how the precipitation types are playing out on the fly.
I do anticipate a healthy stripe of heavy wet snow to set up somewhere along the Interstate 64 corridor and points north. My confidence in that is high, but the exact placement is still a little murky.
If some areas stay all snow during this time… those totals would go much higher. On the flip side, if you get more sleet and freezing rain the totals drop.
The icing threat across the region should be respected. Some areas could pick up more than .25″ of pure freezing rain. That could cause some power issues. With the entire region blanketed in several inches of snow from the past few storms, additional snow and ice could pose a problem with roofs.
This is a HIGH IMPACT winter storm and has ugly written all over it.
For those interested, here are the risk areas from the WPC…
I will have a full update on WKYT-TV at 4pm and will have another update on here later today. I will also hook you up with all the tracking tools you need to follow this high impact winter storm.
Take care.
Wow….simply WOW. Thanks for the update CB. Time to go throw salt.
Hats of th CB for putting a number on this mess. First one I’ve seen do so.
The Louisville MET’s seem to leaning towards north of the river for biggest chance of snowfall.
They still seem to think Louisville and points south get in on plain rain eventually.
Big surprises coming in my opinion.
The air temp is already 4 or more degrees (depending on where you are) cooler than it should be for 1pm.
tx CB!!
And all that mess becomes an amazing icy crust over the land with amazing sledding to follow!
Optimist *chuckle*
Thanks Chris. You are being honest and up front, this might be a “Now cast”. People except to much from you, I think. This after all it a historic weather week
Will the storm be out of the area by Sunday, or will it still be lingering?
Thanks CB. I look forward to all your post. Keep them coming please
Thanks Chris. I had a feeling this would happen given your very early call for this winter way back.
Looks great . After this we just need a mid-week storm for a few inches and a big weekender .
I just hope everyone stays safe during this event.
Holy icicle, Weatherman! 🙂 Thank you for your hard work and continual updates here and on TV, Chris. Stay safe and warm, everyone!
Hoping to stay all snow!
12z GFS:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Great stuff! Thanks.
Thanks, Chris. You’re going to have a busy next 36 hours. Does WKYT provide you and your team with makeshift sleeping quarters for events like this?
We’re still stuck here at 13 at noon here in western KY, on the state line. I think this will be a mostly snow event. I cant see temps rebounding.
Im with you! Cold air makes it battling with triple barrel lows it’s guess work.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif
I have heard several people suggest that this could be as bad as the 2009 ice storm. Does this storm have that kind of potential?
Nope. 09 over an inch of ice in spots. This is more like .25 to maybe .50 if everything turns out like it looks right now. Still bad enough.
The sperry-piltz ice damage index is good to learn because it accounts for wind also Here’s the latest:
http://www.spia-index.com/neIce.php
I am being serious…..lol.
No smart comments. Should I load my 6 year old twins up and go to the grocery? I hate to take them out in this cold but the food is getting scarce here.
Always best to prepare for worse, hope for the best… GO TO THE STORE
Just got back ourselves and I would advise you to go NOW Richmond. It’s already started to get busy at the stores.
Thanks guys! Loading them up now!
Just got back from Krogering. Wasn’t busy…yet! Now that it is almost 4:00, it will start getting crazy especially since we might be looking at 4-10 possible inches.
Alot of mets still trying to bring the rain changeover further north?
Have they not seen the latest models which shows little evidence of that happening ???
They are still following that Met Henry M on AccuWeather.
Bye bye snow! Here comes the rain. I lived in cincinnati for 20 years and I’ve seen a foot of snow on the ground and it warmed up enough to bring rain! Answer this one, Boston has over 3 feet of snow on the ground and there saying it will warm up enough for rain! You can’t mess with Mother Nature she always wins!
You’re going to compare the Atlantic Ocean sitting right over Boston, to Kentucky?
If it were that simple this time around, would all the Met’s be stressing so much over this and continue to emphasize the high bust and surprise potential?
You could be correct especially for Louisville. If I was putting odds on it I still think Cincinnnati could get ugly. They have a higher chance of staying in frozen precip more then any part of Kentucky.
Thanks for the update, Chris. I’m hoping Harlan County can avoid the freezing rain / sleet.
Ryan Hoke at Wave 3 tweeted that the GFS was running 3 degrees too warm at the moment. NAM was on target with temperatures. For Louisville I should say.
I pointed this out a while ago.
Temp profiles mean everything and this does nothing but make the MET’S even more nervous.
@Kentuckyweather: The new European model is spot on with the map I put out earlier. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter
Chris Bailey is about to be the lone wolf who got it right, again.
So does this mean more snow for woodford/fayette than ice?
Yep-Chris was the only one who DIDN’T ‘drop the ball’ a few weeks ago when we got around 5″ of snow here in Bardstown. That’s exactly why I’ve always trusted him more than our Met’s for a long while now…and still enjoy the blog! 🙂
Like!!
I still think this is a North of the river event mainly. We will start off mix in the rest of KY then change the plain old cold rain.
Bye bye snow.
It’s been nice.
LOL
Well looking at radar returns the heaviest moisture is staying south, the models have missed the intial placement of this system by 150 miles
But, I don’t think it was supposed to be here yet?
Just keep watching and tell me what you see later . Should see moisture pull out of southwest into the northeast
Yes you will see more moisture, but the low looks to be 150 miles or so further east than expected, it is in a, when the models say it should be in arkansas, that is why the intial shield of moisture is so far to the south east
West Virginia mets still out to lunch with this one, and are now out to dinner I guess.
One station says 40* temps, with up to 2″ of snow changing over to 2″-3″ of heavy rain.
Another saying 4″-6″ on south side of Kentucky.
Can you please send us some real mets? SOS
Completely agree.
Finally someone else agree’s with me. They wait till an event starts then adjust from there. Then they constantly advertise their severe weather coverage keeping you safe…. Lol
Keeping you safe by alerting you three minutes ahead of time.
Oh well, they try their best.
Especially considering the one chief meteorologist isn’t a real meteorologist.
run by run on this one folks!
Stupid question…but, the freezing rain/ sleet area, will it eventually turn to rain and if so are we looking at flooding? Or it hitting and then freezing? Or just an icy mess?
Well into the 20’s with bright sun here in Carrie of knott co. Sun has some power mushing things up
Chris, we miss you in Ashland! Thanks for keeping our forecast up with your forecasts for Lexington! You are the only one that ever gets it right! Tell Winter that the Rose Hill kids said hi and we miss her!
I appreciate your willingness to put something out there, CB. I do expect you to make some changes. No problem with that.
For Louisville, after reviewing a couple of early runs of the RAP model, something heavy is going to fall around here. I’m leaning more toward a sleet storm but would not be surprised if some northern locations of Louisville get in on a lot of snow through early Saturday morning or 7-8am.
I see the NWS is going with 4-7″ of snow in northern part of the city and 2-5″ of snow in southern part of city.
Up to 6″ for Lexington and the snow line could be adjusted 20 miles north or south.
Still a high bust/surprise potential.
So, thundersleet is currently being reported in SE Missouri.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we get in on some thunder snow/sleet/storms
My Daddy always said ” If it thunders on the 20th of February, it will frost on the 20th of May.”
I think north of Louisville and especially northeast could get a large snow/ sleet storm. I think Louisville going to miss out by 20 – 30 miles. Right on border so going to be so close.
NWS Louisville has updated its briefing, now calling for 4-7 inches for northern most area, 2-5 inches of snow/sleet below that, with Louisville- Lexington area overlapping, and around an inch of snow with .25-.35 inch ice in southern areas.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/pdf/briefing/Feb202015_230PM.pdf
its just me but I see a more east than northe move to this, could a surprise be on the horizon??
I am shocked (not really) that WLKY would have snow quickly changing to a mix and then to rain over Jefferson County with much higher snow amounts beginning right on the Jefferson/Oldham line. They’re pretty proud of their own in-house model that deals with the rain/snow line so maybe they’ll score a coup.
As of the 2:30 NWS conference call, about 4-7 inches was predicted for Louisville (closer to 4) with snow transitioning to a mix in the early morning. WLKY’s in-house model basically has a mix by midnight and heavy rain by 5 AM for the city. WLKY is usually the most aggressive when it comes to predicting a changeover, but then again history suggests Louisville misses out on these borderline events.
I’ve been stuck at home since Monday so I’m hoping for a cold rain and I hate a cold rain. My temperature at 7AM this morning on the NE side of Pikeville was -18…I’ve never felt anything like it before and hope its a while before I do again.
Snow flying here in Athens tn..moderate snow in Huntsville alabama
Yea, Nashville now getting snow. I’m in an interior office so I didn’t know it was snowing until a work colleague told me. Hope it stays snow as long as possible but a hurtful ice storm looking likely.
While this storm could be bad enough, suppose a silver lining is that this system still may be no where near as bad as Nashville’s disastrous ice storms of 1953 and1994.
18z NAM is colder and has more snow in the forecast! It seems like all trends are pointing toward little ice and much more snow. CB’s map might even go higher in snow totals in the next update. And this if from Lexington to Louisville and north. Southern KY keeps the ice (sadly) and a switchover to plain rain. Seems like CKY north will get just a small glaze of ice now, but mainly snow, as of now. Things could still change drastically, so a nowcast would still be very much necessary. It’s gonna get messy!
In my neck of the woods, ne ky, nam buries us
Ive been saying this storm shows similarities of the winter storm of 1994 for those of you who were here in KY.
18z nam buries central Bullitt County and points north and east. I-64 corridor Yikes!!! If the 18z nam holds serve.
Heck, I wasn’t even born yet, let alone live in Kentucky! How was 1994?
I love snow….but, this would cause serious problems.
Also, when was the last time 3 snowstorms came through Kentucky in 1 week??
When is the next run of models? And, I always enjoy reading your comments, Israel!
Well, the 18z GFS is just starting to run, so it’ll be like another 30 minutes until the data comes in.
Southern Indiana is getting 12+ inches? When did that pop up? Last time I looked it was 4. What models are supporting this because I do not see it on NWS or anywhere else. HELP! Gotta get the bread and milk-lol.
The only thing it looks like BG will get is some ICE and Minor FLOODING. Yea. 🙂
No big shock in Southern Ky that we’re getting ice to rain. The snow event from earlier this week was an anomaly so when forecasting these type events, ya gotta go with the pattern. Although a snow pack has been on the ground this week, the 16 year trend still suggest low probabilities for snow in this part of the state. No one ever suggested we would get a lot of snow from this system, but i’m just sayin’ 1 event in 16 years does not mean a reversal in the overall pattern.
The new 18z NAM would be deviating if it verified.
12-18″ along and north of I64 and that’d just the snow.
Devistating, sorry
Devastating. Sorry…the teacher in me. 😉
Crap….it’s my fingers. I’m at work.
I’m actually a good speller. Oh well. Thanks
Yep…I know what you mean. I don’t type as fast as the younger folks do – especially when texting. Some of the words – OMGosh!!
On a side note, I enjoy reading your weather insights. I learn a lot from you and the other regular bloggers.
I love snow, but that’s way much.
Glad I ran to Kroger again for one last gathering.
I hope the Nam is over ambitious.????. 16 inches in my area.
Chris just tweeted the NAM snowfall forecast, doesn’t include freezing rain etc.
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-UMgnyIgAAVM2P.png:large
Saw the NAM…am I really seeing what I think I see? It looks like Spencer County (southeast of Jefferson Co./Louisville) might get 12-16 inches??? I guess anything IS possible!
Is there any chance this will stay to the south, bringing more snow to SE/KY??? I hate the thoughts of cold rain!!!
How much do you all think along I-64 will get around Huntington/Ashland will get? Thanks
Man, the NAM went double BAM…shew…How likely do you all think that is?
I would think not very likely.
But, if anything, it makes me think snow is more of a player than what some think.
c-BIV, with the model data, is SE/KY in for rain? Can this stay further south?
Seems ice and rain there.
Thanks! 😀
true c-BIV…thanks
Nowcasting is the only way to go with this storm, to many variables in the air, No pun intended!
totally agree
This looks to be a non event for Bowling Green. The NWS says our temperatures will rise throughout the night and it will be turning all rain in the wee hours of the morning. We will only have a short period of frozen precipitation.
Doesn’t look like anything but cold rain down in bell county which is no shock.
what about pike co Chris what do think we will come out with
Is Mercer county in ice or or snow?
is hart co KY in ice or snow
This may be a silly question, but will the rain in the south melt the snow that’s already on the ground? Should we be concerned about flooding for the Somerset area?
How about that NAM…north woodford co…16-18 inches. South woodford co…1-2 inches.
Sounds about right…
We are Versailles…weather gateway of the universe.
Frankfort looking better for snow on each model run. Still a sharp gradient.
So far, the early portions of the 18Z GFS suggest the only period of a wintry mix is in the first hours of the storm in western Kentucky. After about hour 12, the GFS really only shows either rain or snow. I’m using Weatherbell’s site, by the way.
Don’t mean to sound like a party pooper, but I would not put too much faith in the latest NAM. We are way too close to the actual event. This is a Nowcast event where short-range models do better. NAM does better at 24 hours out. Current short-range data suggests more of a mix, yes, a heavy mix. If all snow, we could see a whole bunch, crippling. But, a mix will cut down on snow totals, even if we get 4-6″ for some.
I agree, but dynamic cooling may become a factor for some allowing for the heavier snow amounts.
Not sure I Am trusting the NAM. Overdoes it with amounts all the time. More concerned about our icing potential. To the point that I am going to chop some fire wood when I get home from thowing salt.
Chris said gfs is similar
GFS approves of the forecast
So does c-BIV 🙂
NWS Jackson just upped their snow totals to 4 to 8 inches for eastern/seky with their latest warning product.
Charleston WV NWS downed our snow totals in the Huntington area. Also the locals haven’t given up on the heavy rain here. They have stuck with the rain from the start.
Lowlands of WV will not have much snow…looks more sleet and a change to rain. The NWS will pick up on the down sloping SE wind which always warms the valley. Areas to the north and west will get hammered. Looks like it could be a huge bust for a high end winter event in the kanawha valley. Seen this play out many times with the dreaded SE wind.
I’m not too worried about Corbin – years of experience says that an event straddling the border of rain and frozen precip will be rain – but I have everything I need if the worst icy scenario plays out.
Thinking most of this will remain the frozen type precip pretty much throughout the night within most of the state. I just cannot see, even if the temp goes a wee bit above 32°, it going to anything remotely like plain rain…just am not seeing it?!
We are ready in western ky, done it before lol!
NWS says Lexington, through Louisville and north will likely stay below 32 and mainly snow. We will see a lot of precip, and ONE degree difference in the atmosphere or at the surface could mean 0.5″ ice or 16″ of snow, maybe 6″ of sleet? Crazy forecast, now starting to become a nowcast as reports from the west are coming in.
Mainly rain or snow event for I-64?
it’s all up there ^
Thanks
Snow mainly for I-64 corridor and probably be alot
Like in the Fantastic Four, I’m hoping the Torch flames on and we get rain to wash this stuff away before the next freeze right after this 🙂
18z GFS showing a healthy snowstorm in SE KY where as the 18z NAM shows nothing but freezing rain. What a mess. Temps are starting to drop as well.
Nothing but freezing rain before the change to plain rain I should say.
Not sure what might happen overnight
Into tomorrow. But it does not look pretty! Or does it. Ice is quite
Majestic.
Somebody is going to get surprisingly crushed with snow whoever stays all snow through the entire event will get 12+ inches. Data showing over 2 inches of precip do the math.
Fair chance. Heavy snow too, so would be just as bad as .5″ or more of ice. Heavy snow sticks and adds to weight fast.
Seems sleet and plain rain are the least of the bad options.
They just posted winter storm warning here at western, ky tell 6am Saturday. Here’s the trick part there saying temps will rise to 42 tomorrow I don’t buy that.
My son goes to WKU and he says it was icing and then stopped for now.
I think he meant sleeting.
Can’t wait what CB has to say on his next post.
Maybe we will get lucky and it will be sleet and or rain. I can’t imagine this staying all snow in Lexington with the mess that’s still here…..But it sounds like even in the BEST CASE scenario, if it does actually warm to 37 with plain rain, how many hours will it stay 37 before the temp drops back down for another entire week? Long enough to melt what new snow/sleet/ice falls and what’s already on the ground? I doubt it!
Flaaaaaame ooonnnnnnnn!
The Human Torch would say that 🙂
My best friend lives near Boston. Her roof started collapsing during their 2nd storm. She’s in such a mess right now. Knowing what I already have up there on mine,knowing this will be the heavy stuff & seeing the latest models…I’m biting my nails for the next update.
Flame would be nice, sleeting in hopkinsville now
Jude Redfield Wdrb just tweeted if the I-64 corridor and points north stay all snow places like Louisville and southern Indiana will be buried. That’s a strong statement
As someone who can hear trucks on I-64 from my deck, I hate when they use it as a boundary line LOL
As someone who can watch those trucks from mine…I hear ya! lol
Precip looks to be moving in faster than what models were forecasting according to radar returns
This will be a heavy wet snow, very different than what we just had.
Lex-metro
Just walked outside. Thought we were just getting sleet here in Shelbyville but there is a not so nice coating of ice on everything. Really don’t want to loose power.
It had been snowing for the last hour or so in the Lyndon area of Louisville, but it has quickly turned to rain now. My guess is it will switch back and forth with the intensity of the precipitation. The heavier amounts will bring down cold air and produce snow. The lighter amounts will produce rain.
The storm has been a real disappointment, but it just proves warm air aloft always wins out in the area. It was always a very close call for the I-64 corridor and depending on dynamic cooling to overcome WAA and produce snow is always tricky. The only time I really remember I happening was January 1994.
I think last night’s radar returns really signaled this was on the way. The returns were just too high in intensity to be snow. They were the sign of sleet and then the warm air won out even more and we got freezing rain.