Good Monday, everyone. As crazy as February was, the first week of March is going to try to top it. We have a series of systems set to impact our region through Thursday and that means a lot of wild weather. Flooding rains and thunder may give way to a significant winter storm across our region.
Let’s start with what we have out there today. Watch for icy roads early this morning as temps drop deep into the 20s. Refreezing may combine with some light snow and freezing drizzle to cause some travel issues.
A warm front will then lift northward across the region on Tuesday. Gusty showers will develop throughout the day as a storm system cranks to our west. That system works toward the Great Lakes and drags a strong arctic front into the region on Wednesday.
Heavy rain and some thunder will be possible just ahead of this boundary. That will be the time to watch for the possibility of flooding. 1″-2″ of rain will be possible just ahead of the front and that would be enough to cause, at least, some local high water problems.
That same arctic front then slows down as it works to the southeast as waves of low pressure develop along it…
That’s a great setup for significant amounts of snow and sleet from the Tennessee Valley through the Ohio Valley. The exact placement of this front will be the key on exactly how much of each falls and who gets in on the main action. The NAM only goes through Thursday morning but is all in on the snow and sleet…
The latest European Model indicates a similar swath of heavy snow and sleet…
A likely upgrade to a Winter Storm Threat comes later today.
Temps by Thursday morning may drop deep into the teens and not rise much at all during the rest of the day. If we can put snow and sleet down, temps by Friday morning will absolutely tank! Zero or below would be a possibility with clear skies and a snowpack. Record lows?
On a more somber note… today marks 3 years since the deadly tornadoes of 2012. Many of us were personally impacted by that fateful day that leveled towns such as West Liberty, Salyersville and East Bernstadt. The live blog we did that day still stirs up a lot of emotion when I go back and read it… https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=2706
I will have updates later today. Take care.
Chris I will never forget that night I was 4:30 that morning before I knew my daughter was ok that feeling of being helpless I will never forget to this day storms scared me to death I don’t think you really ever get over something like what happen to our little town the building are coming back but still everyday is a reminder of that awful day
The not knowing part is indeed such a helpless feeling. During the April 27 2011 outbreak, the same tornado that devastated Ringgold GA then struck near Cleveland TN which is close to where my parents are. The worst part was that my brother, sister and I could not get in touch with our parents for what seemed like an eternity. To our tremendous relief, it turned out they were ok although that particular tornado only missed my folks by about eight miles. So many others were far less fortunate; the near EF5 destruction I later saw near my folks is unlike anything I have ever seen.
Gives me chills & breaks my heart seeing the live chat. See why I don’t mind winter sticking around for awhile? Me hearing the words “severe thunderstorm warning” gives me crazy panic attacks. I love spring & summer but I seriously live in fear of the next storm.
I start worrying now until next winter
I think Menifee County got hit pretty hard with a large tornado too 3 years ago!
NWS Jackson KY has an informative link about that infamous day (click here).
NWS Louisville and NWS Charleston WV also have similar pages, although I don’t have those links handy at the moment.
We sure did. You didn’t hear much about it because it hit West Liberty after us. We lost 3 lives, many homes and the landscape will never be the same. I took us 7 months to get our house livable again and FEMA said it couldn’t be fixed at all. We live in a hand-built 2000+ square foot house and it picked it up a moved it 30 feet off the foundation. It was a monster and I still get panicky every time the wind blows:(
Saddened by that deadly tornado outbreak, at that same time, I was in Minnesota and we were getting a winter storm of slopiness with snow, sleet, ice, and rain. I came in October of that same year.
HPC Day 3 Snowfall
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif
http://twitter.com/bgoodewave3/status/572325198076092417
I remember that day. I was terrified….Since I know it’s happened here in lexington almost exactly where I live, but my house only had the foundation laid in 2004. If it had been built, it would have been damaged because the house that was beside mine was…….
Geeeezzz. I hope that map doesn’t verify. That looks terrible. Especially since it’s now Monday so it’s not like it’s that far from the event……But given this crazy pattern, it wouldn’t surprise me……
i am sorry for everyones loss . tornadoes are so unpredictable.be prepared for severe weather. just realize that alot of people do care. and will help.in times of trouble. god bless you all.
i had said earlier this winter this would be a dynamic pattern. thunder.snow can put down high amounts of snow.
Charleston NWS finally has a chance of light snow Thursday, I guess it is their way of easing into it. They handled our only big event like this back on 2/16. But they have the temps right back to 40 or higher from Friday on. I hope this storm pans out, gets me up to near normal snowfall, only halfway now. But I did notice the NAM has moved the heaviest into Ohio, for my area, a trend?????
Looks like Knox will be just on the outside once again. We are right on the edge of the higher amounts and once this baby shifts a little NW we will only get a few inches. The dome has to live somewhere I guess. Bring spring.
you don’t want this heavy wet snow especially with saturated ground bobt.
I don’t want any snow Andy. I am ready for spring. Just amazing that points south and north of us usually end up with more snow almost every year. This last snow has laid way too long for my liking. It is March now and I want mid-50s.
We really don’t need any precipitation of any kind now.I still have quiet a bit of snow that hasn’t melted.Where it was piled up and frozen and refrozen.I have been trying to break it up more each day so they will melt faster.Everything here is saturated and water just keeps coming over the same places as it melts.
I think rain will cause problems but heavy,wet snow or ice is the last thing we need and even worse if we get any winds.I fear things will start falling.
This date of 2012 will forever be in our memories and it has changed our level of anxiety when we hear the words “Thunderstorm or Tornado Threat”I watched the one cross the sky before it touched down in East Bernstadt.
Such devastation I had never seen before.
Changed so much for so many within a matter of minutes.
I don’t think I was aware of this blog at the time.
34 for a low here in knott co. Models have struggled with temps lately.
NWS in Jackson is getting on board and mentioned 6-8 inches. They are usually conservative on events so that says something.
Instead of being in another big snow, let’s just look at pictures of big snows and we can all just say we were there instead.
And I might add that instead of living in constant fear over a once-in-a-generation event, I embrace when the warmer temperatures of spring arrive.
I don’t live in fear but I certainly pay more attention and take warnings more seriously.I remember that stressful day so well.We had watched the alerts all day and it was getting dark and the radar showed the storms almost past us.We was breathing a sigh of relief and feeling terrible for the ones that had been hit.
I went to close my front door and I saw the tornado in the distance to the right.Hard to see because it was getting darker.Then within minutes I started hearing sirens and I knew it was bad.
I remember the weather persons on TV and how stressed they were trying to keep up with all the warming and letting people know as fast as they could.You could see the concern in their faces and hear it in their voices.Things changed that day for so many.
*warnings*
not warming
The folks at accuweather are predicting an ice storm for central Ky on Wednesday.
I normally laugh at Accu, but am a little surprised CB mentioned sleet and snow, but not ice. Seems ice would be a main player. That and sleet and less snow the further south in the path.
Let’s see if CB starts adding the ice word in new posts…
When does the next nam run?
The nam 06 run pushed the heavier amounts north, but it was contradicted by the 06 gfs which places the heavy totals in central and eastern ky. So we will need to wait and see.
Please don’t go north!!!!!!!
It has been discussed repeatedly over the past few years, the GFS doesn’t perform well on placement less than 72 hrs from given storm.
The NAM tends to also overdo snow totals, but placement verifies much better.
Right now neatly the entire state looks to get in on over 4″ of snow, and/or sleet.
Enjoy whatever falls. This may be winters last song, as the zonal flow starts to level out after this system.
I would be happy with 4 inches of snow.
You know the NW shift will ensue. Like them maps. Thanks for the update CB.
Has this particular storms showed a northern trend any thus far?
Love the Maggie and the Ferocious Beast references! At least that is the last place I heard “great googly moogly”. Thanks for dedicating your time to this weather community!
Well in this case, correct me if I’m wrong, but if there is a northwest trend, would that mean the arctic boundary wouldn’t make it to this area? I mean, from what I read, the low pressure rides along a slow moving arctic boundary, so if the boundary is to our northwest (northwest trend) it would never even make it here, right?
good point
Maybe Chris will weigh in but I don’t think this is a scenario that has a northwest trend. According to the nws this system has been projected to hit our area for some time, the only thing that has changed is blocking. The current setup blocks the low from exiting the area leaving moisture in our area after the arctic boundary pushes through. Looking at the actual run of the nam there is plenty of moisture here. But instead of snow if had a ice look for central ky.
Nam will start correcting itself today and come in line with other models..Shame sleet will cut down on totals..Apps still thinking 6-8 for some areas East of Lex.
Would add also should see a South East trend today.
Apps Runner, you got this backwards the GFS is the outlier the other models are agreeing with the NAM and its placement. The GFS is more progressive with the front and it very well could be on to something problem is the GFS doesn’t have much support from the other models. Thus most forecasters are leaning heavily on the NAM and its allies as of now.
We agree to disagree.. Without a significant surface low, it isn’t going to push that front back northwest much (if at all). I could see the band of snow thinning out on future runs and thus possibly sliding a bit southeast.
Gfs could be correct.
But, until it has more support, then I don’t see this happening.
But, kudos to you if this verifies apps runner. 🙂
Exsctly….GFS is currently on an island .
Unless it gets support from others by tonight’s 00Z run, I would say throw that scenario into < 5% chance of happening.
Good point. Sleet = a snow lovers enemy.
I prefer sleet 🙂 Not as big a problem as ice or wet snow. It is the least offensive frozen precipitation type. Also does not stick to my Directv dish 🙂
No significant surface low????? Why do you think the models are going nuts with snowfall amounts? A significant low is forecast to develop along the front. The cold front is not bringing possible significant snows its the significant low forming along the front bringing possibly significant snow/sleet problems.
If anything the GFS as usual is late to the party and usually starts coming around to what the other models are thinking with 24 to 36 hours. I would look more to the GFS catching on to what the other models are saying that’s usually what happens, then basically you split the difference.
Seen it happen all winter with these “Waves”..They can go poof anytime..
Apps runner, I completely agree with you there.
I am so over the snow!!! I wanted one significant snow before Spring arrived. I got more than I hoped for and while it has melted mostly in my backyard are due to afternoon Sun, my front yard still has a great deal of snow left. I will take what we get from the heavens above and be grateful for it.. however, I am getting Spring fever already and it is still winter. Will check back this afternoon. Thanks Chris for keeping us updated. You are the only meteorologist who gives us time to prepare for severe weather!!! Have a BLESSID DAY ONE AND all!!!! :))
If it makes you feel any better Rhonda, yesterday was the first day of meteorological spring.
The nws in Jackson just tweeted a pic from the storm prediction center which shows parts of southern and eastern ky with a 80 percent chance of significant snow, lexington and south 70 percent, Louisville area 60 percent. So basically the entire state us in play according to them.
That significant snow means 4 or more inches
I hope if it snows Louisville gets a good deal. No need for another storm to dump snow on places in KY that already got a lot. 🙂
I disagree! I hope every snow lover on here gets a foot.
I agree, as long as it hits all snow lovers. Seems a lot of posts here have stated being tired of snow. Snow lovers unite.
So Prelude, as of now what would you say happens in eastern ky? More than 4 inches or less than 4 inches?
To be honest Im just not sure with this kind of setup. Its all about the front where it slows down or stalls out that is key to see who gets what. Potential is there. Throw exact accumulating numbers out there is crazy hopefully by Tuesday night things will start coming together. Until then lots can change from big snows to others just getting a glancing blow.
When do the new models run?
Nam is running right now, the gfs will follow shortly after,
Okay, thanks.
No one I have followed is even close to this forecast . Most are saying rain . NWS for southeastern Ohio-No significant weather predicted at this time.One of these maps is going to be really right and one is going to be really wrong.
New nam just crushes the whole state, a The WHOLE State
Link please!!!
Curious minds wanna know.
Charlie Sheen was in the NAM and he is crazy like the NAM too 😉 Well, he was in Hollywood NAM, which in their minds is just as tough as the real thing.
NAM is not accounting for the usual things. Specifically sleet.
The Sheen comment…good one.
And exactly regarding sleet factor.
i would like one more blast of snow
I remember a similar setup to this late last winter that was gobbled up by sleet in seky. I ain’t kicking a football till Atleast Tuesday night
This winter as well
Does anyone have a link to the new nam?
Link please
Got to remember sleet! Don’t focus on a snowfall map!
LINK?!?!?!?!?
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
That’s good news for me not much snow
This looks logical to me. Seky gets less 64 area slammed
Ky is only 64 northward 😉
Nope. You are technically part of Indiana 🙂
Them maybe not me as I am south of 64 Bubba
So we agree they are part of Indiana! 🙂
All the snow pack here is basically gone in knott co. We are for sure on another weather system then rest of ky
That’s what happens when you get half the snow everybody else does. It doesn’t last as long. Its not a bad thing though at least the scenery has changed colors from white snow to brown mud. 😉
That is beautiful for the Lexington Metro and northeast!
Like I previously posted, this storm has my eye. I would love one more big thumper and then move on to Spring. I saw “crackuweather” as many of you call it has 60 on March 13. Not that we can trust anything they put out, especially that many days ahead. Hope all of the elements line up correctly for this storm to wallop the state. (As always, my apologies to the non-snow lovers)
As Bailey posted it’s all about the positioning of the front..The Nam has the front more N/W while the GFS/Euro has it more S/E..Thus my comment’s earlier regarding the Nam coming in line with the ops..Regardless Apps hope the whole state get’s another foot of heavy wet snow
Agree! Would be real nice for each of these “waves” to roll up this side of the Apps! Might not be good for you, but it does for Louisville and Lex. If you want snow.
Rodger sees that the new NAM holds firm on a track that would slam much of KY with winter weather precipitation! Will be interesting to see if GFS stays more south today.
Rodger in Dodger!
The new NAM has less snow for my area.
What time does the GFS run?
Hoping for a major NW shift to keep this well to the north of my area. I’m overly sick of this snow that is still on the ground from 2 weeks ago and have no desire to see a new snowfall this year and the shoveling that goes along with it…
What is the Floyd pike knot magoffin counties looking at. I live and work in these areas. Sick and tired of snow I’m ready to garden and go 4 wheeling
According to the new nam 1-4 inches but I’d take it with a grain of salt right now
Someone above said the nam crushes the entire state of Kentucky. I hardly call 1 to 4 a crushing lol
This
Well 90 percent of the state is 6 inches or more. And I was looking at the operational run of the Model, the snow fall maps are shown after the run is complete. So for a weather enthusiast I think i did pretty well. Also you won’t just get snow, but several inches of rain which will cause major issues here in southern ky
That was the main concern to begin with as usual northtucky=snow southtucky=rain 😉
More like much of the state, but funny how the NW shift is a point of topic- unless already showing over Kentucky before the expected shifts 😉
Would be surprised to see a SE shift of see it stay steady.
Can you not just look at the Map?
That smart a$$ comment was not needed. People on here are sick and tired of people like u. Always trying to bully others
Barb, Do you need some geography lessons? You look pretty cute in your picture, we could meet up and we could have some map reading lessons, lol. Just kidding….
Like Jeff Hamlin.
SHAAK you just love to keep telling lies don’t you. Get over your obsession with me. 😉
Well, it is more than 1″ to 4″ for most as far as the map, but sleet could end up making 1″ to 4″ more correct. NW shift too.
This could turn into a battle of heavy sleet vs heavy snow.
Could have 3″ of sleet at your home and 10 miles away someone could have 9″ of snow.
Regardless, this wave isn’t going to go poof.
The dreaded stalled boundary will set up and create mutiple waves of low pressure that ride SW to NE.
Sleet seems a main player, but would take that over ice any day. The models have a hard time with sleet, so usually overstate snow totals. The event we had two weeks ago had a LOT more cold air in place to work with.
I’m ok with sleet.
I haven’t had a good sleet storm since Jan ’09 and before that Christmas ’04.
Xmas ’04 walked into mall at 11 in the morning during heavy snow and 3 inches on ground. Hour later walked out to sleet and it did not stop sleeting until 2am. Had 5 inches of sleet with another 2 inches of snow on top of that.
Could be a repeat event.
I’ve never seen anything like the ’04 storm!
Back and forth like a ping pong.
Thankfully the ’09 ice storm on the NE end had more snow/sleet and less ice, than further south.
Even that didn’t keep our entire area from losing power.
I’ve lived here since Jan ’98 and will have to say, there have been some very interesting winter weather events.
The Feb 22.5″ in ’98, the 14″ on this end in March ’08, the March ’12 snow with 11″ on this end, and now Feb. ’15, and possibly March ’15.
Very true bubba…sleet could be a major player!
Thanks Chris for all the hard work. Great article in the newspaper today.
I wouldn’t mind snow, heck I’d like another good snow to wrap up the season.
Just not psyched about ice. Yikes!
I thought it was a nice story too and so deserved.Chris is one of the most devoted weather persons I have ever watched and the only one I have ever followed on a blog.I do like all the weather persons on that station though.They seem to work together well and to truly have the interest of Kentucky’s people at heart.It seems to be more than just a job to them.But Chris goes above and beyond what is required.
A sincere thank you to Chris for all the time and effort devoted to Kentucky and its people.
Gfs coming around to the nam/euro
Sleet and freezing rain almost never happen in my area, which is ok with me. Rain overrides everything here. This why I think I will end up with rain and backside flurries.
GFS looks juicy
Any particular area more than another?
This ^^. Those of us who can’t see the models are trying to visualize a map and are probably not very accurate. 🙂
The GFS coming to the party fashionably late?
Stop the press! No way….lol 😉
I would think Winter Storm Watches will be coming by tonight.
Running a story about CB “LOVING” winter weather when he is beyond finished with winter is either incredibly ironic or Cheryl Truman has got some inspired troll game.
“Bailey worked eight straight days, with some double shifts. On Feb. 16, Bailey and his colleagues went out to the WKYT parking lot on Winchester Road at night and spent more than a half hour helping stranded employees dig out of the parking lot before they, too, could make own way home.”
CB – “Isn’t this snow AMAZING guys?!?!”
Other WKYT employees – “(looks at their cars in the lot) Uh, no?”
CB – ” Ohhhh, right. Lemme grab a shovel and give yah a hand.”
One of the advantages of going out and helping your neighbors shovel snow is that it diminishes the frequency of them yelling “LD, are you freaking happy NOW?!”, when they know you’d wished for it to happen.
Seriously though, Wed. night needs to be cancelled. A big NOPE.
No one needs a bunch of wet snow unless they’re starving for ground moisture in the worst way.
This. Think sleet or NW trend 🙂
GFS totally wipes eastern ky’s clock..If you’re in EKY going by GFS power is out.Nam vs GFS/Euro
The nam shows 12+ for ne ky
How much?
I told ya GFS does this everytime
I tried to click on the link but the video is not working 🙁 does anyone have an alternate link? Thanks!
You people that want another major snowfall have problems. After what everyone went through with the one two weeks ago, it is just wrong to wish that on us again. Get a life.
Go away.
Can’t we all just get along?
All we need is love!
How many licks to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?
I agree.
I suppose its nicer to get lots of snow if you don’t live in a difficult place.For me it means being trapped at home and lots of hard work to get out.It took me over 10 days to clear enough to be able to drive down my hill and I still have lots of snow piled up.
The biggest thing now is the ground is so saturated that we do not need one more drop of moisture.A heavy snow,etc is going to mean big problems for many.All the weight on trees that are standing in mud won’t be a good thing.
I’m with you 100% Kim, word for word!
MSU student from West Liberty, KY. Saw Chris’ twitter update the night of 3/2/12 about Main St. of West Liberty being gone. I live on Main Street. Quickly returned home that night to total devastation. Thankful that my family and home were OK. Thank you, Chris, for always keeping your listeners aware. Had it not been for you, I wouldn’t have known to get back to West Liberty that night.
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif
Link to GFS?
Above you lol
My bad! Lol
……… Where is the Rolocoaster? We have only had a few this season Last weeks was kind of fun, but only a few ups and downs. Short ride.
If GFS pans out, I’m leaving the Kentucky for a few days or going on a Wine run that will last me 3 to 4 days 🙂
Bring it on! I am enjoying each return on the models, however I am leery even after the last big one it could take the dreaded NW shift. March should still be snowy in KY in my opinion! Off to do my snow dance!
Looks like gfs is starting to sniff it out and moving it towards the 64 corridor. The warm air always hangs tougher in seky. Could be a big sleet storm this way
When does the euro run?
The North Korean weather model starting to come around!
*LIKE*
Mid 30s for high forecasted today in seky at 40 at noon in knott co. Models have struggled with seky temps for well over a week
I just hope KY snow lovers are happy with this one. I love snow and don’t want to see this one end up in Indianapolis totally north. Right now the model shows Louisville, Lexington areas getting a good snow, but today is just Monday. Don’t want hopes dashed.