Good evening, gang. Our developing winter storm continues to target the bluegrass state in the coming days. Heavy rain and possible flooding will give way to the potential for significant snow and ice accumulations Wednesday into Thursday.
A Winter Storm Watch and a Flood Watch are out for much of the state…
Here’s the latest information from the Weather Prediction Center…
Tuesday Night-Wednesday
Wednesday Night-Thursday
The GFS seems to be getting a pretty good handle of this system…
With the combination of sleet and snow, it makes pinpointing exact amounts tough. Here’s a very early First Call For Sleet and Snowfall…
Still plenty of time to fine tune amounts as this system comes into better focus.
I will have a full update on WKYT-TV at 11pm.
Take care.
Go north my friend…..
Every storm is so different. I’m certainly not envious of those that try to predict the future, but I certainly appreciate the efforts of CB and all the others that put so much time and effort into trying to do so! By the way, I’m standing naked on my roof waving my magic wand hoping for 12″ of snow for Southern Indiana!!! If it’s gonna be cold, let it snow my naked friends!
Your naked standing on your roof waving your magic wand???? I think I saw this episode on Cops it didn’t end well.
This comment made me chuckle out loud!
Just one comment for you MFR, can you say shrinkage! 🙂
Lets review this, your standing naked on your roof waving your magic wand and hoping for 12 inches? Yup only on Chris Bailey’s blog we can from weather to Jerry Springer.
Seems that the best moving North already 🙁
Yep. I appreciate CB said it would not move north like other systems that do, but that does appear to be the net effect here to some degree. Question is how north could it move?
Map seems reasonable BTW.
Best Was already North depending on your perspective
And what is really north. There is the actual path and the actual stuff that falls. Heavy sleet to the south could be perceived as “more north”.
North of a person’s location
I will be one of those doing the happy dance if it goes north of me.
Oh my … here we go again with snow! Already have to make-up 6 snow days that are taking us into June.
What county are you from? We are up to June 8th for kids in Clay. We have a teacher planning day tomorrow.
June 10th for knox. I think thy are going tomorrow. Probably be out rest if the week.
Live in Spencer but teach in Jefferson. June 1 so far last day. We had some days built into our calendar and are using those for the 6 days we have missed. Teachers did not get out until mid-June last year.
Not to stir stuff, but the other mets are trying their best to both back away from calling this week the beginning of the spring warming they said a just few days ago, and hedge their bets with this week.
Seems they are trying to ride the fence so they are unscathed, which ever direction things happen. Crow is pretty rough to eat, so they are trying to put lots of sauce on it. Crow is crow.
Hard to probably spin this week as the beginning of the warming for spring and the snow if “over”. Winning!
This makes me want to cry. 🙁
Thanks Chris hope it trends bigger snow for southeast and less sleet.
Why is it that the extreme northeast corner (Ashland) is in the middle of this mess on the maps/models but NOT under an advisory???
Because the NWS in Charleston is very stubborn
Its funny its the Same people saying its going north or were under a dome. I don’t get it! We had a good dose of snow two weeks ago and some is still on ground. What the heck people want be bury 3 feet of snow to say that bust the dome. Society has loss there minds. I should say few society has loss it
I hope the Eastside of Cincinnati gets near that 10 inches!!!!
Why is greenup n the other 3 counties always last to be added! Don’t understand why we are under Charleston WV!
Sue, you guys are farther east and storms travel from west to east so it is only natural for your watches and warnings to come out later. Not saying the Charleston office isn’t behind the curve but, the fact your watches and warnings come later would be natural.
There have been times we have been in the middle of a storm then the adv will come out! Lol. A little late then!
Same for Kenton, Boone, and Campbell. We’re always the three loners.
Hey, I only root for snow because I’m in the snow and ice removal biz in the winter!
Looks good for Louisville today, but will it move more north like other systems have gone? With one of the last storms our household went to bed seeing a model that looked like a good 10″, and woke up to rain. Bring the 10″ this time!
As usual Charleston is letting everyone else’s do their forecasting. ZzZzzzzzz
What I want to know is the WSW on the map has Ashland and a few other counties not included. However on the snow map it says 5 to 10inches of snow. I don’t really mind if we don’t get any snow or ice but would like to know which map is correct… I guess Will have to wait and see what is falling outside my windows on the days in question. Thanks Chris for all u do for us!!! Don’t wear yourself out over this one. Try and get some sleep!!! We can wait for an update when u wake up!!!
..
Your forecast comes from Charleston WV. Like mine and they usually won’t issue Winter watches until the event starts.
Yep I am in Greenup, it drives me crazy that they wait so long before they add us to the adv!
We are just out of a different market and are pretty much always forgot about…it’s sad really..
If we’re gonna get snow in NKY it might as well be a doozie.
Looks pretty good on the map. 64 corridor north gets a lot. Lower had you move south
It’s amazing how this winter is ending. Remember in Dec/Jan when we had nothing people were giving up left and right, and some were saying that the worst can come in Feb/March. That’s the truth. You really can’t give up until feb/march are out of the way, and in some rare cases, April.
Someone was asking earlier about heavy rain before snow. I saw this in Knoxville in Jan 1996. It POURED rain, almost 2 inches, then it changed to snow and snowed around 5 inches and the temp plummeted as it did so. The streets were covered in pack snow from traffic and roads couldn’t be scraped because of it…..So yea, a lot of rain before snow means nothing when it comes to snow sticking to the ground.
I can remembered back in the early 80’s one day it rain like cat and dogs and then temps start fallen we end up having 10 inches of snow on ground by sunset. This happen in a 12 hour day time.
Shepherdsville is sitting dead center of this…………….awesome. I`m not sure if its moving north or not. I believe the lower snow totals are due to more sleet than snow. So the 2 – 6 areas maybe getting more sleet, since the cold air will be moving southeast and the precip moving northeast.
No sense to speculate at this point. Need to see the next model runs and watch them slowly build consensus.
When are the next model runs?
Nothing to see here..move along..move along… In Andy’s yard… Lol…
😉
Hoping we get to up those totals!
When are the next model runs?
I can’t remember the year, it seems like around 20 years ago, my nephew was playing basketball in the city league, Lexington, and it started snowing that afternoon. We had around 10 + inches and the snow was still coming down hard. We went to his ballgame and when we got out it was turning to rain. The temps kept raising and by the next morning all the snow was gone. I hope this is the case for Weds through thursday.
The 18z Nam went waaayyyyyy north.
Ummmmm where were you that’s yesterday’s news.
I know right!? Lol
3 inches of sleet, that’s pretty impressive.
Doesn’t nam run at 930?
It’s running now up to at least hr 36
00Z NAM look interesting. It seems slower tonight.
Interesting as in how? Chris said it was a big hitter
By 57 the freezing line is over London area the heaviest moisture is Lexington north and west
What time would 57 be?
The cold air and heaviest of the precip seem to be coming together later in the day Wednesday. After hour 45 (4 pm EST) it is game on for Kentucky. Overall, the NAM has come back to the south. The 18Z run looks like it was a dirty run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_057_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+00+UTC&scrollx=422&scrolly=0
Shew that looks like a biggun
All about perspective
00z NAM halfway back to where it started.
shifted 100 miles north on 18z….now 50 miles south on 00z.
I expect it to shift back close to where it started by 12z run tomorrow.
Map?
Can you post a link?
Here we go again!?!
Isn’t this what happened with the last storm……Nam shifted north, we all got depressed, then it went south to TN, then we were all depressed again, then it went back over us….Crazy
Srew the snow domb ; I want it back
Do we really want this everyone. If that plume sets near or along the Ohio River, all that water has to come downstream at some point. We can’t stop what will be, but I dread all that runoff.
Michael, pretty much all precipation that falls in Ky makes it’s way to the Ohio River
I am well aware of the lay of the land. And you are correct. That is exactly my point.
Still looks like a 64 corridor hitter to me
NAM Hour 72 precip plot. Stupid crazy.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
NAM is insane painting 5 inch liquid totals.
Half of that is surely pure rain tho!
It’s shiftin up to the north. Praise the lord I can’t take anymore that snow business. Old lady is grumpy as it is. My yard is a nice brown color and I wish it stay that way. I ain’t got time for this here snow nonsense! Bring on the shorty shorts temps.
Thank you most sincerely though for your time and your talent mr bailey. God bless
00Z NAM 84 hour snowfall map.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
that’s the 12z run from earlier today.
It’s says 00z run
it says 12z
at the top it says 00z 03 Mar 2015. That’s Wednesday’s first run.
It’s the 00z run that just came out.
very odd. every time I click that link it says 12z March 2, 2015.
I tried it a dozen times.
restarted my computer….it works now.
odd, that’s never happened.
Does that legit have Lexington getting 1 inch of snow? I will cry if that’s all we get out of this. No joke.
This run of the NAM crushes and buries the I-71 corridor from Louisville to just south of Cincinnati.
Got a map? How’s NE ky look?
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=00&fhr=27&field=acctype
Still think the nam is too far north, what you think?
Not sure. I think the NAM is completely overdoing precip amounts.
Berea is in the 5~10 but only 15 miles from the 2~6. Let’s just make it one swath of 0-12″ and then everyone’s covered and everyone’s right.
The last system busted completely for us (very little ice, all rain and no snow) and that was a very good thing to happen. Here’s hoping for round two with this system and that includes being too high on the rain totals as well.
Sad and pathetic that there are so few updates from the NWS when such a crippling event is about to hit our state. Just crickets! I know models may differ but when are they going to update? When it is over? Might as well just look at the window! Your tax payer dollars though so whatever! Sad!! Man up boys!!!
If it were a dry spell or 90 degree heat in the middle of summer, they would be all over it! 😉
So true.
Is the NAM trying to make a come back from its hike this aternoon?
Yeah it looks like they don’t want to stick their neck out. Better safe than sorry….don’t risk peoples safety because the storm may shift.
We still have 5″ of snow on ground in Middlesboro. As the city has shut down certain streets at nights for snow removal. Receiving over 20″ the last two weeks.
Gfs in?
Per CB on Twitter….As expected, the new GFS is farther south and east than the NAM with the axis of heaviest snow and sleet.
Which part of Ky gets slammed on the GFS Chris?
CB has from about London north in 5-10 inches. Depends on the amount of sleet. If you get a lot of sleet it will be on the low end on snow totals. All snow gets you a higher total.
Thanks!
Western, GFS likes the I-64 corridor maybe 2 counties south of I-64 and points north.
I think the GFS is a realistic compromise of the two..
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030300&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=069
CB still seems to think the path would be more center of the state rather than I64. Just as long as sleet cuts totals down instead of ice, I am more than find being on the short end 🙂
CB still thinks the GFS is too far north.
Meant NAM
I may not have a clue as to what I’m talking about, but is the NAM showing the NW shift that everyone has talked about so much. Last night it appeared like cent. KY was the sweet spot, now it looks like Southeast Indiana is sweet spot? Just wondering. I know the other models are showing a bigger event for cent. KY, but even they appear to be less strong than last night. Again, I am not a weather expert, so someone who knows more any info. is much appreciated.
Nam
Is too far north…to me the gfs is right on with last nights run
I remember back on Feb. 21 we had 4 to 8 inches of snow predicted near Huntington WV, we didn’t see a flake. It’s possible again. I wouldn’t be surprised.