Good Tuesday, everyone. A triple whammy of a winter storm is on the way to the bluegrass state. This will bring us the potential for flooding, significant sleet and snow accumulations and possible record cold temperatures. March is certainly bringing some serious weather right out of the gate!
Let’s start with today and roll forward.
A warm front lifts northward across the state today and will bring a brief spike in temperatures. A light mix and some light rain will be possible early today before the milder air gets in. A few gusty showers will be possible into the evening hours as temps rise well into the 50s.
I have no changes to the setup for Wednesday and Thursday. Our arctic front drops into the region with some heavy rain ahead of it early in the day. That could lead to some local high water problems. This does not look like a major flood event.
Arctic air will ooze in from west to east changing the rain to heavy sleet and snow during the day into the evening. Significant accumulations are likely through Thursday morning. Here’s a look the general outline for amounts…
I will get more specific with the totals later today as the storm comes into better focus. With the combination of sleet and snow falling, it will be tough to pinpoint exact amounts. Areas that are mainly snow will EASILY push double digits. Areas with more sleet than snow will wind up on the low side of the scale. Either way… this is a very high impact winter storm.
I still like that the GFS is doing in terms of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Here’s the latest snowfall map…
Sleet
Freezing Rain
This will be a major winter storm that slams the region over the next few days.
The cold coming behind this for Thursday into Friday is nothing short of amazing to see on the models. Single digit lows are almost a given, with many models showing zero or below. The GFS goes crazy with Friday morning lows…
That is likely on the extreme side, but shows you just how wild this week of weather really is.
Updates will come your way later today. Until then, I leave you with some tracking toys…
Have a great day and take care.
One more nice snow and then everyone can have their spring followed by summer followed by fall and then hopefully a winter that delivers snowfalls reminiscent of the 70’s and 80’s and the last half of winter 2015.
Heh, kinda cool to think that after such a terrible start for snow-lovers to the winter of 2015, that it’ll now be tossed out as one of the benchmarks for cold and snow in future winters.
Maybe Knox co. can join in on the snow for the winter of 2016. The dome survived down here. Only had about 5 inches during the big storm due to 3 hours of sleet. Looks to be sleet for the next one too. We must like sleet down this way.
We can hope this one isn’t for us either Bobt
Oh Thornton (Chris)…I love it! The triple lindy of winter storms heading our.way! Simply marvelous!
So the WPC updated. It now has the northern half of the state, including Lex and Lou, with slight risk of 12 inches. For 8 inches it shows moderate and for 4 inches it shows high.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif
Thanks Chris. I hope you are right about it not being a major flooding event.
Our local mets(Huntington, Ashland) still have me in the 1-3″ range with the 3-6″ close by.
Are they relying on a lot of melting and sleet or what? Their maps don’t match up too well with lots of others…
It seems they focus more on the cities and how the weather effects those cities. The outlying rural areas don’t seem to be a major concern. This is why I follow Chris and for winter weather and the NWS, I look to Jackson. I live a lot closer to Morehead than I do to Huntington. Just sayin.
Chris is always my first to follow. I usually don’t pay much attention to the local weather. It just seems they have this whole thing shifted a lot farther North. Not even in line with the WPC.
I’m in Flatwoods, KY, maybe in a good spot for this one. I’m ready for Spring after this though. 🙂
A lot of mets made it sound that we were turning from winter and going into spring mode.
That is true but I think their starting to change their tune now. I’m past ready for Spring but It’ll get here when it gets here. 🙂
Yeah, locals in WV are only focusing on the flooding. Which I don’t think will be much of a threat. There is little to no snowpack left between Hunt /Char maybe more East and South. Plus the NWS here is always late to the Winter party.
yeah I still have a good 12″ snowpack here
Jackson NWS is talking about a north shift with the I64 Corridor being the prime spot for this system as far as snow goes. When do the new models run?
New models just ran,
I64 corridor was always the prime spot
Looking like lots of crow for other mets to eat this week. I suggest a bourbon sauce to offset the crow’s gamey taste 🙂 I’m guessing crow tastes gamey.
I know it’s not the same day of the event, but certain mets less than a week ago saying “It’s over” in regards to then being “it” for winter, seems “Just a dusting” like in scope.
Here is the nam http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif
Thanks Tom!
Well it looks like I may be making a salt run today. Down to 500 lbs and average around 150 lbs per property.
Hope all holds true and we all get a double digit thumping.
Thanks for the update CB.
Think SNOW!
Not all of us were forecasted to get a double digit thumping.
double digit heavy wet snow, no thanks
Well Kentucky is the big focus on the weather channel…they saying 3-5″ of rain and 8-12″ of snow on top of that..will Jim cantors be seen in Lexington??..
How did they get those numbers, ratings hunting perhaps. When I was younger the weather channel was fair, but now they are all about extreme solutions, and we all know why
Jim cantore ..can’t spell this morning apparently.. Lol
you know what they say… if Jim Cantore is in town you better run for your bunker and hide LOL 😉
Hey Chris….maybe you can do a live shot in snow with cantore…lol.
Chris Bailey and Jim Cantore doing thundersnow together would be awesome!
Chris does not need to be seen with that drama queen 😉
Lol….yeah…your probably right there
The Jim Cantore thundersnow thing reminds me of Sheriff Bart’s line in “Blazing Saddles”:
Baby, you’re makin’ a German spectacle of yourself!
Cantore said on air about thirty minutes ago he is on his way to Lexington.
Oh snap!
When does GFS run?
12z runs around 1pm
12z gfs will be out by 11:30
SE KY could get some nasty ice out of this …. you all can have this crap, I hate it !!
Speaking of Jim Cantore, I remember 3 years ago when he was in Jeffersonville close to my work (either at the Bristol or Hooters, don’t recall which). I would have gone down there to hang out with him but I took off work that day just to follow weather. As it turned out the worst was 20 miles north of us. Everybody get strapped-in and ready for winter’s last hurrah!
Now the gfs snow nap from the 06 run http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif
That shows 85% of the state getting up to 6-8 inches. Nice! Unless your named Andy.
I’m happy without the 6-8 inch snow that the model
that just means I get to keep my power which is a win
You get rain…sleet and flurries…
Fine by me as long as the river isn’t across the road 🙂
Which model is more reliable at this point?
Morning folks. So are we still in for another snow storm. And so what part of the state
Look at the maps?
🙂
Your smart a$$ comment isn’t needed and things change hourly with medel runs
Model runs
Awe seems like someone needs attn again today.
So come back around 1 for the afternoon update. Chris just might have a map with numbers on it.
Lady Barb, the maps are literally inches above from your post. The picture articulates without a need for words. 🙂
Not smiling for the wet sticky snow though 🙁
Your smart a$$ comment isn’t needed
If you can’t take something like that then you probably shouldn’t internet.
I think all she knows how to type is “Your smart a$$ comment isn’t need” might be in grade school just move on and ignore her.
Prime Example of a bully..
Barb, look over them. This page is full of rude trouble makers looking to smart off to everyone. They take pleasure out of KY weather dot com by talking down to others.
Yep. No soup for you either!
HMMM. I don’t think I care.
Yes you do. Soup is good!
Sarahbeth….been coming here for over 8 years and have never met a rude person until a month ago when Blowtorch Bryant went a little to far with Loserville comments. It is all fun and games. Chill a little.
I put a smiley face and was being nice and you posted with malice 🙁
No soup for you!
The smiley face condescending.
Nope. That would be 😉
Smiles are the universal sign of good. And Walmart.
Quit setting yourself up!
What a treat it must be to wake up next to Barb or Sarahbeth every day.
LMAO
I love working from home… don’t have to get out in the mess. Love to see it snow. Hopefully everyone can stay safe.
I don’t root for bad weather, but I can’t change it. Might as well enjoy it.
*sigh…….* The internet just isn’t made for some folks.
Looks like Louisville is sitting pretty for a thumping. Always been in the crosshairs throughout the model runs…
What area of town do you work? I am a one man show with a couple of shovels and lots of salt. Three businesses and a handful of residents that I take care of in the Higlands and Audubon Park area. I Have seen your landscape work and I am very impressed.
Hope these models hold true as I am looking forward to playing for pay.
Hey! I live off 22, in between Holiday Manor and the Paddock Shops (The Summit)… Thanks for the compliment! I am a sub during snow storms for a good buddy of mine. We can have as many as 8 or 9 trucks out per snow event. Two sidewalk crews. All large commercial properties (to many to begin to list… including Sam’s Club, Summit shops, a bunch in Eastpoint, a bunch in J-town around Plantside Dr….) We deal in bulk salt, can go through 60-80 tons in a storm, no problem. Good times, right? hehe
Our shop is on the county line (Jeff/Old) in Pewee Valley and most of our work is East End Louisville and West Oldham… Indian Hills, Prospect, Goshen, Middletown, Highlands, Anchorage, Crestwood, etc.
Hi. I live in the Highlands, too! Is it okay to ask an estimate of how much you charge for cleaning a front and back sidewalk?
I too work from home but I procrastinate when a potential winter storm targets the area.
Finally got my Lex. paper from yesterday & read the article about Chris. Thought about him worrying about his family in Salyersville while having to keep everyone informed of the dangerous storms and what a great job he did that day and always does. Obviously he loves his job and we reap the benefits. Thanks so much Chris for all that you do. Now, I guess we better fasten our seat belts and get ready for the Triple Lindy of a storm headed our way. Loved Rodney in that movie!
You KY folk are super blessed. We only can manage a lousy inch or two of snow each storm down here in the Nashville area. We keep getting all the ice. :/ For all you people getting pure snow, I’m jealous 😉 Count your blessings!
I was there last week for a one-ish inch event. Also noticed the many broken trees from the ice.
Now, if this thing will only shift even farther to north of I-71… hopefully I will see no snow from this. Fingers crossed!
im down here in western Kentucky in Marshall county and as far as I’m concerned you’re dead on every time. National weather service who? You’re the bomb pootie!
Rodger is liking what he’s seeing except for VERY occasional posters who come on here and call the regulars “bullies.” Look at the maps and figure out your accumulation where you live. They’re colored and everything! 🙂
Sleet is a huge wild card with the system. Wondering if the low end of CB’s map should be 3″ due to sleet. That said, if sleet was that big of a player, seems ice rain would be as well.
I don’t see a real issue with freezing rain.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think any of the major MET’s are putting this in their discussion of concern, either.
I agree, sleet could really knock totals down in some areas. I hope this doesn’t give people a false sense of easier travel. Sleet is grainy and if coming down at a high rate, is like going through a hail storm.
Either way, this winter is going out with a bang, and most of this state can no longer complain about a dome effect.
Ironically, I miss the dome now 🙁 😉
Anything other than ice though is a win!
indeed!
Interesting what the NWS in Charleston WV has to say about the storm. They are still not on board with a major winter event especially in the Southern Coalfields is WV. Still giving consideration to the NAM model. Here is the discussion below:
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR. WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVEMOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLINGOF THE COLD AIR…PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULDINDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO…WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANTAMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WVMOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCESIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE…FEEL THAT AWINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT…ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OFWEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDSAND VA HOWEVER…AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE…STILLCAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.
I regret never getting my WKYT weather ruler. I would have used it this year for sure. Can we order them by mail Chris Bailey?
I have 2 extra rulers.. are you in the Pike Floyd area?
I have friends there Barb! You could drop them at the Hamptons in Virgie or with R. Hughes at the rock quarry in Elkhorn City! My cousin teaches in Floyd at Duff. Probably I will just have to wait until next year……
What time is the temperature expected to drop to freezing tomorrow in north eastern ky?
It’s weird that no one has mentioned the Euro. I keep hearing nam and gfs with this storm but not one mention of the euro. Just a little strange to me…….but whatever.
I agree even CB has not mentioned the euro the last day, or two.
The Euro was in discussion a couple days ago, and then nothing more. Strange and interesting as I don’t see any of these maps unless someone posts them. I guess the Euro became a moot point.
If you look at the Wave 3 blog, Kevin Harned shows a Euro snow map. It predicts 11-12 inches
I forgot to tell you my area. Southern Indiana
http://i.imgur.com/9M15QUE.png
Last nights run..Basically the same as GFS..
http://www.facebook.com/BrandonButcherWeather/photos/a.245139272173852.61542.238237429530703/897775240243582/?type=1&theater
I was reading the comments and I guess the people out that way don’t appreciate Chris Bailey, as we do.
They were pointing out how he has supposedly been wrong most of the winter. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
As that MET (Brandon) said, “we shall see who is right”.
I read them too..LOL
One lady said she missed Chris and that he always had the weather correct for her area 🙂
I live in Huntington, WV and I can tell you firsthand, Brandon Butcher is a moron. He never has the forecast right.
LOL
oops…haha
One look at Brandons snowfall map shows he is all on board with the nam.
And by the way, I also miss Chris Bailey here in Huntington.
That guy is an idiot. — central Wv
I’m so confused on this one… so with the NAM it looks like Lexington has a chance of like 2-4 inches of snow and the GFS is showing 10-12 inches. That’s a pretty huge difference. For those who know more about this stuff, which is more accurate and what are the chances of Lexington actually getting in on any good snow with this storm?
Perhaps it’s a case of truly not knowing where the cut off will be for snow. Snow totals with this storm seem to be heavily based on how much sleet occurs between the change from rain to snow. Personally, I would love the high snow totals, but after seeing the NAM show 10-12″ in Louisville with one of the last storms, then seeing mainly rain, I will hold off on throwing my confetti.
Thank you, Chris, for the very understandable explanation of what we can expect from this storm over the next few days. Stay dry and safe, everyone!
Yesterday the Weather Channel was calling for 3 to 5 inches of snow. This morning, Jim Cantore is saying Louisville to Lexington could get 1 to 2 inches of rain, then 8 to 12 inches of snow on top of that. So, they have upped their snow forecast for us.
I have lost confidence and respect for TWC. It’s more like a reality show now, plus naming each storm, to me, is ridiculous.
Haha! You mean you don’t want to look outside when it starts and say “Thor’s here!!”. I think it is ridiculous as well. Hurricanes I understand….winter storms, no.
It’s as much entertainment as anything. They have to fill 24 hours with weather. Amazing honestly.
Which is why I was so glad when Directv got rid of them temporarily but they are back to their old antics.
Looks like the Nam may have a different solution..
Isn’t this run one of the off runs?
Looked about the same..GFS and Euro is right on this one..
well as long as I don’t’ have to use Oars I’m not to concerned for myself but for others yes.
Gotta love a local forecast that only tells you “depending where you are,you may be shoveling”. Tell me something I don’t know!
LoL
Nam goes south
Which one is running right now?
12z nam
Thank you. Do you have a link?
Did it finally shift back south? It’s been north the last few runs
could someone please post a link? Thanks in advance.
how many inches of snow for central KY anyone
Depends on the cold air and sleet factor. GFS has Central KY anywhere between 6-12 inches, and CB has 5-10 inches as his early call for amounts.
ok thanks
Honestly, they do not know…..because if it ends up being more sleet it won’t accumulate like snow will, even very heavy sleet. If it’s less sleet and mostly snow, possibly up to ten inches (give or take) based on what I’ve read all over. The longer it sleets, the less snow will total up. I’ve seen this happen before, heavy sleet for hours and it hardly accumulated.
nam moving toward the gfs ?
So is there a potential winter storm heading for KY? Can anyone tell me when it will arrive, how much I will get, what type of precip will fall on my front yard? I’m allergic to colorful maps with information. Also, will interest rates rise this year? What about hair styles? What’s hot this year?
Interesting – NAM is basically back to the 6 am run of yesterday. Later runs went north and are now moving back south. So in 30 hours the NAM has gone back to where it was originally. Whooopee.
so, basically the NAM is doing exactly what I said it would do yesterday? hmmm….ok, cool. 😉
Wish this stuff was a year earlier so my other son was home too so we could rekindle snow fun memories…. And to help shovel.
My other son is still complaining of aches. BIG driveway!
I told my mom (who lives in Illinois) I want her snow blower for next winter.
I used to love shoveling snow. Now? not so much…
These past 2 winters I sure could have used a snow blower. You just don’t ever think it would be worth having one in Kentucky. Now, I’m thinking about it.
It’s the off run
How about eastren KY
this link is just to add to the several posts about TWC’s map.
I know some of you enjoy visuals. 🙂
http://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/572769650418851842
It’s interesting for them to tweet this and not match their forecast to it. I live a mile south of I64 in the Olive Hill area. My forecast for tomorrow night is 1-3 inches of snow. I don’t understand.
It matches with what they are giving for me in Knox 1-3 and can’t disagree but everybody else does so far
I live in South Lexington, and they have <1 inch for my area, however; on the map it says 8-12 inches.
TWC has now dropped my accumulated snow down to less than an inch??????
New NAM just threw the mic down and ran off the stage!,
Link?
Can you explain please, or post a link.
He means the nam is back showing a big hit for central KY along with the gfs and euro……
I think I need an interpretation of that statement 🙂
Looking at the model runs Pike County could get anywhere from 1-2 inches to 6-8 inches of snow depending on where you live. I’m to the NE of Pikeville in the Belfry area, looks like tomorrow is going to be another interesting day. My water just came back on this past weekend and the side roads are finally in good condition, I will be happy with just a cold rain this time around.
Well if you like sleet in Eastern Ky that”s basically what the Nam show’s..Honestly don’t know why were looking at the Nam with the GFS and Euro in agreement..Watch the next run of the Nam give someone 20 inches..Can be a horrible model sometimes..
First time I’ve ever gotten a service unavailable from this website. Must be getting a lot of hits at the moment.
Someone earlier was mentioning Nashville. I’ve noticed this. If you live in Nashville, north of you has gotten snow, south of you in Huntsville, east of you in Knoxville, and west of you in Memphis I believe…..Nashville has gotten some good snows in the past though I believe……Maybe that will return since if this winter is any sign that our pattern is back to the way it used to be.
Server must be getting pounded..Keep getting intermittent server unavailable..Why Chris Don’t advertise is crazy..
Had same issues about 6 am
I’ll take what the NAM is showing for Louisville. Lock it in!
What is it showing please.
12″+
Man you guys gotta remember that they said the same thing 2 weeks ago-10+ and we got barely 7 l-ville area. We’ll see but I’m skeptic.
I know. I’m not buying it either. NAM usually always is overdone on precip amounts.
can someone post a link?
The NAM pounds the I-64 corridor and the river county’s
anyone have NAM map?
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif
I feel sorry for the north ky folks and people in Louisville if the nam verifies
I need to catch up on my pop culture / social media prowess… I am still trying to ascertain the the significance of the “dropped mic[rophone]”. I’ll just wait until my two teenagers get home from school!
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=12&fhr=19&field=acctype
How much snow would you get out of 1.25 to 1.50 of liquid equivalent?
If 10:1 ratios 12-15″
Thanks!!!
Folks in Louisville if the NAM is right on precip looks to be buried. However im thinking the NAM is overdoing precip amounts
If the NAM is right I’m in 12-18 inches here in Jackson Ohio. We haven’t had a double digit storm this year the most we got was about 7 inches from 2 different storms so I hope we get slammed
It’s def correcting itself!
How much farther south do you think it could go? Do you think enough to put Warren co. in the 12″+ range?
Chris Bailey advised yesterday the NAM usually over does it with the amounts of precip.. The area shaded in the 12-18 inches should probably be more like 8-12.
I agree regarding the NAM. If it shows 12-15″, I am a bit skeptical based in past experience. I hope NAM is correct. If it’s going to be that big of a storm, then it’s time for other models to show agreement, nws to issue a warning, and mets to talk more confidently about a barrage of snow.
NAM is still too far north, imho
Not gonna be much to see in seky unless you like sleet
Snowmageddon 2015 part duex
Chris Bailey’s latest tweet
Chris Bailey @Kentuckyweather 7s7 seconds ago
The new NAM has “shutdown the state for a few days” written all over it. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter
I guess its official anywhere south and east of Laurel/Clay has been annexed to another state 😉
Takes guts to tweet that. Now let’s see it happen. Semis had better make their bread deliveries to grocery stores early today.
won;t sleet be bad.
Much rather have sleet then heavy snow or frz rain
I have the feeling that someone will be getting 14 to 18 inches of snow out of this.
I hope it is the I-64 corridor
You can have it! I like power and my Directv 🙂
I really don’t want this new NAM to verify….16″ of heavy wet snow will do some major damage to trees, power lines, roofs, you name it.
Did I mention, I am trying to close on my house next week?
Looks like we will be delayed a week with this type of knockout punch.
Exactly, this would not be like the last big event, nice and fluffy, this would cause millions of dollars in damage, placing both life and property in danger. Rooftops could collapse, power lines would break. This could be a very dangerous situation, that said it is only one model run and by no means gospel.
Yes, not set in stone…
Sleet is going to make a difference here.
If this sleet doesn’t last long, Louisville and Lexington areas need to be prepared for this worst cast scenario and hope for the best, as always.
This. Boo!
Bring Spring!
Bring back the dome!
Mother Nature: No soup for you!
Hug the ones you love!
You antagonized mother nature for way too long, Bubba.
So, anyone who wants to look for the culprit, look no further than DomeBuster himself aka: Bubba, lol 😛
Maybe we can get Rolo to do an Old School! and jinx it 🙂 😉 🙁
You can’t have my dome 😉
Crap! Jackson co not looking to get much!!! Bummer. Any chance of this bad boy moving a little bit more South?Lol
After the 100 mile hike yesterday afternoon , the NAM has been slowly correcting itself. So I think it can still shift south some.Furthermore I as also think it`s not done correcting its self. so yes i think it will some.
Could be correct…. Think sleet!
It reminds me of last year about this time. In Bowling Green we got 3″ of sleet with only 2″ of snow. It did a number to our snowfall. so this might be a replay of last year, then again the NAM has not been the most reliable source.
Most models are coming into agreement.
Nam – 16.1 for Louisville / 12.4 for Lexington
GPS – 9.1 for Louisville/ 13.1 for Lexington
Euro – 15.4 for Louisville / 16.1 for Lexington
RPM – 1.1 for Louisville / 1.6 for Lexington
Rpm really stcks out, doesnt it
How much for Mercer county?
Nam – Richmond – 8.4 / Somerset – 2.2
GFS – Richmond – 9.4 / Somerset – 7.6
Euro – Richmond – 13.4 / Somerset – 11.4
RPM – Richmond – 2.5 / Somerset – 2.0
Prelude, keep us updated on the GFS when it runs! Do you think the nam will still yet shift a bit south?
Models are starting to converge and were 24 hrs away so there shouldn’t be any real drastic shifts.
Did y’all see Chris’s latest Tweet? He said the new NAM has “shut down the state for a few days” written all over it.
Rolo’s goats hijacked CB’s account 😉
Hahahahaha, those dang goats
I know the last huge snow we had fell at a temp of only 11 degrees, which I have never experienced a big snow storm at that low of a temp. My question is, tomorrow when it is forecast to change to snow, will the temp plummet or just slowly go down? Perhaps it won’t be a heavy wet snow if the arctic boundary goes through and temps drop to the low 20s or upper teens.
What time is the changing over going to start? Looks like it might be a tough call for school systems tomorrow.
for anyone wishing and playing on the NAM’s flaw for overplaying the snow totals, you might want to sit down when you see the new GFS map.
It dumps just about as much snow as the NAM, and it even spreads the love to more areas of Kentucky than the NAM.
mic dropped….EURO, NAM, GFS all converging on same solution.
Map?
YES!!!
Let’s see the models, please.
Link??
how much snow for hart county KY anyone
New gfs makes mor sense than the nam
Map?
I mean the gfs is not as flat with the heavy precip cutoff, the gfs is broader with the heavy stuff, which makes sense given the location of the low
Tom, what does it look like for Bowling Green.
I just tweeted:
The new GFS models tells the NAM “I’ll help you shut down Kentucky”. A huge huge hit. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter
LoL
What does it look like for BG?
Does the new GFS show mainly sleet for EKY?
I was kind of hoping this one would skip us.
new gfs map anyone? lol
Guys I CANT stand it!! Post a link for GFS, please!
Link to GFS please?
Not only did the models blow up, but so did this Blog.
TWC is all over the model jump they went from 1-3 Wed night and 1 inch Thursday to 1 inch of snow and ice Wed night and 1 inch of snow Thurs morning.
Weather Channel on board for Olive Hill. 1 inch Wed, 8 to 12 Wed night.
Congrats I hope its what you wanted.
I’ll take snow over rain any day..2010 flood victim.
Yeah luckily for us the worst of the moisture in liquid form is staying north
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=12&fhr=17&field=acctype
Sleet storm for seky looks like on the gfs as well
Not anymore than we had the last big snow that got Central and Northern KY
I’ll gladly set this one out.
At least we won’t need the oars
Wait – that’s a liquid equivalent map.
i can see this thing sliding a little further south than currently forecasted….fear the SE shift ? that just sounds backwards
LoL
Example snow wise Louisville would get 14 inches of snow
What’s the ratio for snow? I never remember that.
The typical ratio is 10:1
Thanks!
The Rebel Snow Forces attack will not be forgotten by Darth Bubba. Cuuuooowwwh!
when will there be winter storm warnings be put out.
They will be afternoon
Chris – on your next update, PLEASE post the Euro, GFS and NAM maps……..Thanks XD
Here was the last nam and I will get the gfs in a few mins. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
Great googly-moogly!
GFS?
Oh golly, I am trying to contain my excitement but this is just looking to be a real dandy of an exit for old man winter! These maps have come to an agreement this close to the event?!?!?
I am just about ready to put a SOLD sticker on it and head to Kroger!
Bring it on! Bring it on!
(Sorry as always to the non-snow lovers)
These forums are good at posting the latest maps
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32249&st=1060
No snow love for South Eastern KY
Nope 1 snow event this year worth mentioning and it stayed on FOREVER it seems so maybe we are getting close maybe next yr.
What time is the next run and which model is it?
I think the next one would be the Euro maybe around 1 or 1:30 I may be incorrect though
Just curious, the runs of the Euro I see floating around are the prior runs, correct? I was under the impression the new runs were ~1pm in the afternoon but could’ve remembered wrong.
The new Euro starts running around 12:50PM EST If I remember correctly.
this going bust for many, time it gets cold there be not much moisture, ohio river counties at best for much snow at all. im GLAD cause I got 2 ball games to coach!!!!! tx mother nature for sparring us!!!
I tend to agree with you but at this time the data does not back up your thoughts. I think that it will most likely be a rain event for South East part of the state.
OMG I finally found the GFS map and it was NOT easy!
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif
notice no upgrade to WARNING yet, tells a lot as NWS doubting the widespread Winter weather
WSW should be removed from our area Rolo
They will be out soon
Actually, that was the wrong hours. This is 84 hrs
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif
Winter storm warnings need to go into effect for I64 and areas north. SEKY, high water issues.
Flood Warnings now going up for parts of the SE
If this pans out like all the heavy rain we are getting today that is forecast.. boy we will be wading through a dusting by thursday morning…
Loving the look of the latest maps… very little snow and or sleet for me. This is great news and I’m not being sarcastic!
So, the kids go to school and complete the full day, kids go to school and are dismissed early, or kids don’t go to school tomorrow in CKY?
My money’s on a 1/2 day in CKY